####018007951#### FXUS64 KSHV 170333 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1033 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 It has generally been a quiet evening across the region. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms have tried to form in areas along and north of I-30, but they were short-lived. The likely reason for that was revealed with our evening sounding, which showed a decent cap in place. Progs have been very aggressive in forecasting convection across the area, but it appears this cap is suppressing most activity. As of 10pm, we have a long track cell knocking on the door of Cherokee County in East Texas, which has had a long history of producing large hail and decent rotation. But, it is moving into the capped environment and falling appart. There is also another severe thunderstorm racing northest, just east of Metroplex, which could also make it into portions of East Texas over the next couple of hours. As of now, I think our best chance for precip tonight will come from a complex of isolated storms currently across Central Arkansas. Progs continue to suggest those storms will form into a line and push south as it becomes cold pool dominate. This line could make it as far south as I-20 corridor near daybreak. Again...this is not a slam dunk. It is very possible we don't see much of anything overnight. Regardless, I decided to keep some slight to low-end chance POPs in the forecast, with best chances along and north of I-20 corridor. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 An increasingly active period of weather is expected through this short-term forecast, beginning late this afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop invof the DFW metro area. From there, this convection is expected to rapidly expand eastward near/along the I-30 and I-20 corridors in NE TX, NW LA and SW AR very late this afternoon and through the evening hours. The set-up for this potentially volatile period is marked by a slightly capped environment along and east of a weak sfc bndry situated near to just east of I-35 across east central OK before tailing SW over western north TX. Sfc-based CAPE values range from 4000-5000 J/kg across these areas along and east of the bndry to include roughly the NW half of our region. For purposes of getting a better indication of how much capping in still in place, we have a 20Z special sounding planned for this afternoon. As this cap continues to gradually erode as expected, convective initiation should evolve quite rapidly from around DFW late this afternoon eastward across the Ark-La-Tex region through this evening before gradually diminishing toward midnight. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are primary threats with potentially very large hail possible with the most intense convection across our NW half, especially within the I-30 corridor. Although the tornado threat is lower comparatively, there remains at least a low-end potential in this general area encompassing our NW half. Moving ahead to Saturday, a rinse and repeat of today appears to be in the offing given that the aforementioned bndry will retreat back northward and maintain very warm and unstable air across our region. In addition, more upper-level support is expected with a shortwave embedded in the SW flow pattern aloft lifting NE across TX into the Middle Red River Valley by late Saturday into Saturday night. Once again, robust convection is expected during the late day timeframe and into the evening hours on Saturday with nearly identical threats/areas highlighted and perhaps a slightly higher tornado threat compared to today. Severe potential will begin to wind down toward midnight into early Sunday morning as the upper forcing shifts NE with the ejecting shortwave. As for forecast temperatures, they are expected to remain well above normal with no frontal passages in store through the weekend. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Weak upper-level ridging will follow just behind the departing shortwave on Sunday, but more convection is expected to develop along a dry line well to our west on Sunday afternoon. Some of this convection is expected to impact our NW zones late Sunday into Sunday evening, and severe weather certainly cannot be ruled out given the very warm environment ahead of this dry line. Beyond that, little change in the overall pattern and set-up is expected through the remainder of the weekend. This warm and more active pattern will carry into early next week ahead of a much stronger cold front expected to advance into the region on Tuesday into Tuesday night. As a result, this timeframe will encompass our next more organized severe weather threat as all modes will be possible. For this reason, SPC has included our entire region in a Day 5 Slight Risk to account for this next round of potential severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Once we get beyond Tuesday night, a much quieter weather period will follow for mid to late week. This will include a return to more comfortable temperatures in the post-frontal air mass with daily highs and lows much closer to seasonal averages for mid to late May. In fact, it's possible we may run a few degrees below normal through the remainder of the long-term period leading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR across the airspace to start the 00z TAF as a mix of FEW/SCT below 5kft is present under a more robust deck of mid and high cloud, tossing back and forth between BKN/OVC. This likely going to be the case through the remainder of the evening as TSRA is still well to the west of the airspace, closer to DFW/DAL. Latest convective hi-res modeling does suggest that some of this moves into the western portion of the airspace, within the vicinity of TYR and GGG after 17/00z. Much uncertainty surrounds how long these storms hold their potency, and how far east they do travel before falling apart. Due to limited confidence, elected to hold VCTS across the western airspace, with VCSH for the eastern terminals, with SHV likely being the last of the local terminals to hold VCTS at this time. By sunrise, low and dense BKN/OVC will have advected north across the airspace below 2kft, turning to a mix of FEW/SCT by the afternoon around 4-5kft under a mix of mid and high clouds again. Convective initiation late tomorrow afternoon will occur around DFW/DAL closer to 20z, and will approach the edge of the airspace right around 18/00z. KNAPP && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this evening, mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor with any severe thunderstorms that develop. Similarly, timing of severe thunderstorms is likely late Saturday afternoon into the evening over much of the same area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 92 74 93 / 30 30 40 0 MLU 74 92 74 92 / 40 20 30 10 DEQ 63 87 67 86 / 50 40 40 20 TXK 69 90 71 90 / 50 50 40 20 ELD 67 90 69 90 / 40 30 50 20 TYR 72 90 72 90 / 40 40 30 10 GGG 70 90 70 91 / 40 30 40 10 LFK 75 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...53 ####018008188#### FXUS66 KLOX 170333 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 833 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...16/833 PM. Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will bring cool weather through Saturday. Gusty onshore winds are expected in the Antelope Valley during the afternoon and evening. Night through morning drizzle or light rain is possible Saturday. A warming trend will be will begin Sunday and continue through next week as high pressure develops. Temperatures more typical of the summer season are likely away from the coast for the latter half of next week. && .SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...16/832 PM. An unseasonably strong upper level trough will push through Southwest California this weekend. Lowering heights and stronger onshore flow brought some cooling to many areas today, with this cooling trend expected to continue into Saturday. Current satellite imagery showing some upper level clouds loving through Ventura and LA counties this evening, with some low clouds returning across portions of the coastal plain. Current ACARS sounding date showing the marine layer depth across the LA Basin ranging between 1500 and 2000 feet this evening. The approaching upper level trough combined with the strengthening onshore flow and an eddy circulation is expected to bring a rapidly deepening marine layer overnight into Saturday, eventually increasing to 4000 to 5000 feet deep, highest in LA county. This rapidly deepening marine layer combined with light southerly flow through the boundary layer will make conditions favorable for areas of light and drizzle, especially LA county. There will be a 10-20 percent chance of measurable rainfall, with highest pops favoring the lower coastal slopes and foothills. Clearing will be slow to none for many areas on Saturday due to the deepening marine layer and stronger onshore flow. Temperatures will likely stay in the 60s in most areas, which would be 5-15 degrees below normal. Onshore winds starting to increase this afternoon and evening across the interior, especially in the Antelope Valley. With the deepening upper level trough bringing increased upper level wind support and strengthening onshore gradients, looking for strengthening onshore winds across the interior, especially in the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills, where a wind advisory is in effect on Saturday for wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Similar strong winds are expected on Sunday for the Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills. The increased onshore winds across the interior will bring an increased risk for large grass fires, especially in the Antelope Valley, where there will also be the potential for reduced visibilities in blowing dust and sand. Gusty northwest to north winds will also impact southern Santa Barbara county and the I-5 corridor, where wind advisories will likely be posted at some point this weekend. *** From previous discussion *** The warming trend will continue Monday with some additional offshore trends leading to some morning northeast winds across the hills and mountains and possibly some of the valleys as well. Expecting widespread warming trends of 5-10 degrees over Sunday and some valley areas as much as 15 degrees warmer, getting close to 90 degrees, including interior SLO County and the western San Fernando Valley. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...16/225 PM. Next week is going to be a hot one and lasting at least two days longer than the previous heat wave. Highs are expecting to be fairly similar to the last heat wave, topping out in the low 100s in the warmer valleys Tuesday through, low 90s in Downtown LA, and 80s across most other areas except the beaches. There may still be a lingering shallow marine layer Monday morning across coastal LA County resulting in some dense fog but that should clear fairly quickly. If the forecast remains on track, and right now confidence is high, another round of heat advisories will be needed for the coastal valleys and possibly even parts of the interior coastal plain. Onshore flow will start to return Thursday that will begin a slow cooling trend into next weekend. && .AVIATION...17/0046Z. At 00Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was around 15 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2300 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius. High confidence in TAFs for KWJF and KPMD. Moderate confidence in TAFs for remaining sites where flight category changes may be off by 2 hours and 1 category. There is a 30-50 percent chance of only brief to no return to VFR at coastal sites from SBA and south including KLAX. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance for an east wind component of 8 kts between 10Z and 18Z. Best chances between 13Z and 17Z. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Return of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance for cigs 007-009. && .MARINE...16/720 PM. For the Outer Waters through Tuesday, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, there is a 60-80% chance of Gale force winds. Gales look to be strongest and most widespread Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. There may be a lull in the winds Sunday morning. Seas will reach 12-14 feet. Rough, short period seas will exist into at least Monday. For the Inner Waters (North of Pt. Sal) through Sunday night, high confidence in SCA level winds leading up to the GALE Warning, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 80% chance of Gale force winds Saturday afternoon/eve into the late hours. There will be a lull in the winds Sun morning. Another Gale Warning is likely (60% chance) for Sunday afternoon and evening. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds continuing. Seas will reach 10-12 feet. Rough, short period seas will exist into Monday. For the Inner Waters (south of Point Conception) through Saturday morning, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. However, there is a 30% chance of SCA level wind gusts for far western portions of SBA Channel into the late night hours tonight. For Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, high confidence in SCA level winds focused mostly through the Santa Barbara and western sections of the southern Inner Waters. Additionally, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale force winds across the Santa Barbara Channel Saturday evening through Saturday night. There will be a relative lull in the winds overnight, then another Gale Warning is likely (50-60% chance) for the Santa Barbara Channel Sunday afternoon into late night. Seas may approach 8 feet with short periods due to the wind. For Monday through Tuesday, moderate confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory now in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon to 6 PM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Gomberg/MW AVIATION...Munroe MARINE...Lewis/Black SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox ####018008526#### FXUS61 KRLX 170334 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1134 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of strong to severe storms expected today through tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1135 PM Friday... Issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the rest of the area outside of the tornado watch until 5am. As of 1103 PM Friday... Did some minor tweaking to PoPs and winds to account for current observations and trends. Also, raised winds for tomorrow afternoon. Other than that, the forecast remains on track. As of 740 PM Friday... A tornado watch has been issued for the western half of the CWA until 3am. The forecast remains the same and no significant changes were made at this time. As the activity gets close to our area the remaining half of our area will likely see a watch as well. As of 351 PM Friday... Elected to let the watch go and cancelled it as all the thunderstorm activity is now east of the area. Gusty winds can still be a factor as well as some stratiform rain until they move out as well. As of 310 PM Friday... The severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to be canceled in our KY counties, as well as Wayne and Lincoln in WV. The strongest convection is currently across the southern mountains and coalfields and it has moved out of these counties. Still anticipating another round of severe weather later this evening with a line of storms that will form. As of 214 PM Friday... Put up a wind advisory across the higher elevations of Randolph and Pocahontas from 10 AM Saturday until 2 AM Sunday. Models are showing fairly strong post-frontal flow that will move in early Saturday morning. Gusts between 45 and 50 MPH are possible across the higher elevation zones. As of 1235 PM Friday... Currently have some thunderstorms to our southwest in eastern KY that are moving into the severe storm/flash flood watch area. There is a fairly sturdy (-50 to -75 CINH) mixed-layer cap that has formed over the lowlands which is showing some signs of disrupting these storms as they surge deeper into our forecast area. Damaging winds, hail, and the chance for an isolated tornado are the hazards of concern. Despite the cap, instability and lapse rates are on the stronger side with SBCAPE between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg. Effective shear is very strong with values between 50-65 kts, which will lead to some rotating storms this afternoon. Convective models are keeping the trend of training these storms over the southern coalfields/mountains, so flash flooding concerns are elevated through the afternoon, hence the flash flood watch. 1-hr FFG is around an inch to an inch and a half in spots with 3-hr FFG only slightly higher. HREF/HRRR are still in agreement with bringing in a well developed, stronger line of storms that will move in from the west between 7 PM and 9 PM, subsequently moving across the forecast area west to east. The greatest wind threat will reside in this system where prob wind statistics show 60 - 70 MPH gusts could be possible if this line if it manifests as the CAMs are suggesting. Further flash flood concerns will linger into the night with models showing the southern, upshear portion of the line moving over the counties currently outlooked with the flash flood watch, which will be receiving repeated rounds of heavy rainfall this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Friday... Outside of a few isolated showers early Saturday night, dry weather is expected through the short term period as weak upper level ridging builds into the region. Gusty winds early Saturday night across the lowlands will quickly diminish, while persisting across the highest terrain into the day on Sunday (generally 30-40 mph). Sunday will feature a fair amount of sunshine with high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s across the lowlands, with 60s in the mountains. Lows Saturday and Sunday night will generally be in the 50s across the lowlands, with mid 40s to low 50s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday... A return of unsettled weather is expected for the new work week courtesy of a slow-moving disturbance progged to impact the area. The chance for ISO/SCT showers/storms returns on Monday and Monday night as an associated warm front lifts north towards the area, with the best chance for rain being the south/central portions of the CWA. More widespread showers/storms return Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday as low pressure slowly approaches/crosses the region, with a general drying trend expected late Thursday into Friday. Given recent rainfall, some hydro concerns are certainly possible as the week goes on. Temperatures are progged to be near normal or slightly below throughout the period, with the chillest day expected to be Thursday as an upper trough builds into the region. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM Friday... VFR conditions turn to MVFR with temporary conditions of IFR under heavy thunderstorm showers as a broken line of storms heads our way tonight. For the western sites, anywhere from 3Z to 6Z there will be active weather with possible strong to severe thunderstorms traveling very fast through those site areas. They will likely see very strong gusts along the outflow boundaries and in the vicinity where storms pass by. Heavy downpours will drop VIS down to IFR at times. Once the activity is through those sites winds will stay elevated with gusts near 30kts along with VFR conditions behind the line. The eastern sites will be next to get hit with strong to severe wind gusts along with IFR VIS under heavy thunderstorm showers from around 4Z to 9Z with CKB/EKN possibly a few hours later. Once that activity passes by VIS/CIGs will lift back to VFR, however windy conditons will continue through the period with gust up to 30kts. Worst case, CIG heights will hover around MVFR and VIS could get down to below IFR if a shower is heavy enough. Wind shear will not be a factor since surface flow will be elevated, however if the surface flow weakens temporarily then wind shear will become a factor and this goes for most sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/17/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L M H L H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H M L H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday and continue at times into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>007-013>015- 024>026-033-034-515>518. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-526. OH...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GW/LTC NEAR TERM...JZ/LTC SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...JZ ####018004360#### FXUS63 KGRB 170334 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1034 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid-evening, particularly across eastern Wisconsin. Isolated severe is possible. Diminishing precip/storm chances after sunset. - Somewhat gloomy on Saturday with cool northwest winds, cloudy skies, and isolated showers. - Cool trend continues into much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Main focus is ongoing thunderstorms along with synoptic winds. Isolated showers developed in central WI early this afternoon and quickly grew into a broken line of thunderstorms tracking northeast--mainly across eastern and northeast WI. These were mainly the result of daytime heating leading to an area of instability, with MUCAPE of 400-1000 J/kg, particularly in the east. There is also a small shortwave ahead of the main upper low, along with some influence from the LFQ of the upper jet aiding in large scale ascent. Strong winds have been the main threat with inverted V soundings showing mixing up to as high as 8-9kft, where synoptic wind are around 50 kts. Surface gusts near 55mph were reported with the first showers in Portage Co. Spotter reports since then have been limited, but radar and atmospheric conditions would suggest gusts to 60mph remain possible within any thunderstorms, or even strong showers. Additionally, freezing levels are quite low near 9000 ft, with 50dBZ to only ~22000 ft needed for 1" hail. Some of the storms have surpassed this, so hail up to around 1" remains possible within the strongest storms as well. The HRRR has been the most reliable with trends today. Will continue to follow its general output through the evening. This indicates the ongoing storms continuing to track northeast, with some additional development downstream which is currently evident in south-central WI. This would bring another broken line of showers/storms through the eastern parts of the CWA late this afternoon--however, some question to how much instability will be available. Regardless, with strong winds above the surface and low freezing levels will continue to see an isolated severe threat through early this evening. After sunset expect the severe and thunder threat to greatly diminish, with some isolated to scattered showers overnight. Winds will also subside overnight. Saturday...Upper low tracks across the state early, with some weak wrap around energy behind it. This keeps a low chance (10-20%) of showers in the forecast, but most of the day will be dry. However, cooler, cloudy, and breezy conditions are expected with northwest winds gusting to 30-35 mph and in the middle 50s to low 60s. Thunder chance is very low with virtually no instability. Cooler trend continues Sunday and into most of next week with temperatures at or below normal. Dry weather is likely Sunday and Monday, with chances for precip on Tue/Wed. However, models are not in agreement on the track of that system, so the precip could miss WI to the south. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 CIGs will lower behind a cold front overnight to a mix of MVFR/IFR along with some post-frontal showers. These conditions will last through Saturday with the showers winding down Saturday afternoon into the evening as the upper level low pulls away from the area. Surface winds will also increase again and peak late Saturday morning through the afternoon with gusts up to 30 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Gusty south winds and scattered thunderstorms will continue through early this evening. Winds subside a bit overnight, and then increase from the northwest on Saturday morning. The strong winds, along with high waves, will continue through early Saturday evening for both the bay and Lake Michigan nearshore waters. No changes to the current Small Craft Advisory. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....KLJ AVIATION.......Kurimski MARINE.........KLJ