####018008737#### FXUS64 KMAF 170347 CCA AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1047 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - High winds and blowing dust expected early next week, mainly in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. - Critical fire weather conditions expected to impact southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 WPC Surface Analysis depicts a weak cold front moving southeast throughout the day today, with both deterministic and ensemble models indicating weak ridging persisting, with 500 mb geopotential heights 582 to 588 decameters and 1000-500 mb thicknesses largely between 570 and 576 decameters. This maintains warmer than average temperatures for the area today despite the passage of the cold front. The biggest effect of the cold front will be gusty westerly winds later this afternoon and evening, especially over the SE NM plains into Guadalupes, Davis Mountains, and Marfa Plateau. VIS/IR satellite imagery indicates scattered clouds, continuing the scattered to broken day cloud conditions we've seen for the last week. With the weak ridging aloft, westerly downsloping winds, and occasional interruptions to solar radiation from passing cloud cover, NBM highs today rise to 3 to 8 degrees above average, translating to lower to mid 90s, mid to upper 80s Lea County, westernmost Eddy County into Marfa Plateau, upper 70s to lower 80s, and upper 90s with triple digits from the Big Bend into southern Terrell County. There is medium to high probability in ensembles of highs at least 85F and winds are least 15 mph from SE NM plains into Stockton Plateau into this evening, and medium probability of highs at least 90F and winds at least 15 mph for Terrell County, so we are expecting the warmest and windiest conditions along this corridor. As is usually the case during the warmer months of the year, there is at least a medium probability of highs into the triple digits, but with highest probability today over southern Terrell County. Tonight, NBM lows end up 8 to 12 degrees above average, ranging from upper 50s to lower 60s from Marfa Plateau and SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin, and upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere, as continued scattered to broken cloud cover limits radiational cooling and light southerly winds maintain WAA. There is a medium to high probability from the Upper Trans Pecos into Terrell County and the Rio Grande basins that lows will not fall below 70F, and a similar probability of highs remaining above 75F in the Big Bend. There is a medium to high probability of lows below 65F only over Eddy County into northern Lea County tonight, with highest probability of lows getting down below 60F only in westernmost Eddy County and northernmost Lea County. By Saturday, NBM highs once again warm back into the mid to upper 80s for cooler spots of northern Lea County and Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau, with lower to mid 90s, upper 90s to triple digits along the Rio Grande. Medium to high probability of highs at least 95F from Upper Trans Pecos into Terrell County and Big Bend are present, and low to medium probability of highs up to the triple digits in the Big Bend. A high probability of highs between 80F and 85F is present over Davis Mountains and Guadalupes into westernmost Eddy County into northern Lea County. Lows Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight with less high clouds allowing for more radiational cooling, with NBM lows 4 to 8 degrees above average, ranging from mid 50s higher elevations into northern SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, to lower to mid 60s lower elevations of Marfa Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, and upper 60s into lower 70s southern Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and southeast Permian Basin. In ensembles, a high probability of lows less than 65F is once again present over higher elevations into SE NM plains, and a medium to high probability of lows only falling into the 70F to 75F range from Upper Trans Pecos into Terrell County and Big Bend. While temperatures remain warm throughout the short term, rain chances stay near zero and dew point temperatures below 50F, so it will continue to feel dry. There will not be much change into next week, as you can read in the long term discussion. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper-level trough over the western CONUS is forecast to lift across the Four Corners and southern Rockies Sunday into Sunday night. Another reinforcing shortwave will round across the base of the trough axis over these same locations Monday into Monday night. Dry southwesterly flow aloft will generally prevail across our forecast area Sunday into Monday in advance of this system. Surface low pressure will deepen over the vicinity of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Sunday afternoon, with an associated lee surface trough axis extending southward across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Increased winds within southwesterly flow aloft and in the low levels along the trough axis will bring breezy to windy conditions to our much of our forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening. Low level thermal ridging along the surface trough axis will result in very warm temperatures in the 90s over much of the region, except 80s in the mountains and readings as hot as 102-107 along the Rio Grande. The dryline looks to mix east to just about all of our CWA on Sunday afternoon. The exception will be the far eastern Basin/western Low Rolling Plains where an isolated storm or two could develop along the dryline by early Sunday evening. Any storm that develops could potentially become severe, but the best prospects for severe convection will be well to the east and northeast of our CWA Sunday. Similar conditions persist into Monday, with mainly hot/breezy conditions persisting across the region. A weak cold front pushes through the region on Tuesday, bringing increased northwesterly to co and the higher terrain areas of west Texas on Sunday. northerly winds behind this feature. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler in the 80s over most areas except 90s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures increase back into the 90s for most by the middle to latter part of the week. A shortwave trough and increased moisture could bring a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms from the Van Horn Corridor to the Marfa Plateau/Big Bend on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. Generally light southwesterly and southerly winds should define the night, but become breezy out of the southwest Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Fire weather concerns will increase this weekend given the combination of very low RH, windy conditions, and very dry fuels. 20-ft winds will increase over the weekend, especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains where gusts will reach over 40 mph. RH's will bottom out each afternoon at critical levels with values on Sunday and Monday in the single digits. Fuels have dried significantly over the past week with ERC values now above the 50th percentile and some locations expected to be above the 90th percentile by Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west Texas on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 68 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 100 72 103 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 72 96 68 98 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 64 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 88 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 95 67 97 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 69 94 66 97 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 66 95 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NM...&& $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...95 ####018004788#### FXUS63 KFSD 170347 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1047 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds and patchy rain showers diminish this evening. - Patchy frost possible on Sunday morning. - Elevated instability Sunday night into Monday morning could lead to isolated severe storms, with hail the main threat. - Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected Monday into Tuesday. EC ensemble and GEFS still pretty bullish for 1" or more rainfall amounts (40-70% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Low pressure will shift east of the area tonight into Saturday, slackening the pressure gradient and taking the lift with it. So winds will diminish tonight, although they remain breezy into Saturday, and showers should mainly be out of the area by mid evening. Saturday night into Sunday morning a surface ridge of high pressure noses into the area which will allow winds to drop further, likely less than 5 mph in many locations. This will then allow temperatures to drop with lows likely sneaking into the mid 30s in some locations. This may lead to some frost across the area and will need to be watched as the chance for lows below 35 are running about 30- 50% north of I-90. Sunday will see increasing easterly flow and increasing cloud cover as low pressure deepens over the Northern and Central Rockies. A fairly weak mid level wave will swing north into central SD with some moisture return in the mid levels as well. This should result in some spotty showers during the day, mainly west of I-29. Otherwise highs will likely top out in the 60s. Sunday night will see a much better surge of elevated warm and moist advection. Models are indicating about 500-1500 J/kg CAPE with 20-30 knots of elevated speed shear which could result in some isolated, elevated hailers. Currently timing for this would be in the evening to overnight hours. Fairly deep easterly flow in the lower levels should help preclude any wind threat. As this wave of lift moves through Sunday night into Monday morning some question marks arise for Monday and just how much and how widespread rain and thunderstorm chances will be. If enough warm air aloft moves in, the dendritic layer is well elevated and fairly dry, so instability will be needed to get showers and thunderstorms going. Most models do indicate decent instability (1000 J/kg CAPE) through the day, but are less agreeable on this warm layer aloft potentially cutting off development. On thing that continues to work in favor of additional development is a persistent inflow from the southeast of moisture and a bit more unstable air which should help produce enough lift for further development. One big thing to watch will be the upper level low and how this wobbles eastward with the potential for another low to develop in roughly IA Monday evening as a jet races into the Central Plains. This could bring a more distinct northern edge to the heavier rain and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning and keep the bulk of this activity across NE and IA. Tuesday will likely see rain diminish from northwest to southeast as the low pressure wraps up and moves southeast. Still a lot of question marks regarding just where and when this low will end up, but for the most part unless some major changes occur, rainfall will be much diminished by Tuesday night. Flow becomes more westerly aloft Wednesday into Friday which should allow for milder temperatures and more sporadic chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Isolated showers are possible through the overnight hours, mainly west of I-29. MVFR/IFR stratus continues to wrap into the area from the northwest as an upper low meanders through the Upper Midwest. Some sites may bounce between categories, but have continued to lean a bit more pessimistic with ceilings. Conditions improve from southwest to northeast Saturday, with VFR ceilings returning to the MO River by noon. Strong winds taper through the period, with gusts around 35 knots possible early in the overnight hours into Saturday. Otherwise, most gusts through the day Saturday will be around 20 knots. Prevailing northwesterly winds tonight into Saturday afternoon, becoming northeasterly to end the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...SG ####018005271#### FXUS64 KCRP 170349 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1049 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over Rio Grande Plains Not much to talk about in the short term with a mid-level high pressure centered over the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. A mid- level shortwave looks to move across TX Saturday accompanied by a surface frontal boundary to our north and an approaching dryline to our west, thereby increasing rain chances particularly NW of our region. Confidence that either the sw or boundaries will make it to South Texas is low, with most deterministic models leaning towards a dry/settled forecast and the GFS being a slightly more aggressive solution. Have decided to stick with the NBM for PoPs as there's a very low <10% chance for showers/thunderstorms over northwestern counties and near zero probabilities further east. Ridging combined with southwesterly flow aloft will help to contribute to warmer temperatures. The latest run of the HREF Grand Ensemble still shows a low to medium (20-40%) chance of heat index values 110 or greater this afternoon over portions of the western Brush Country (Cotulla) and southern Coastal Plains (Kingsville/Alice). However, with observations compared to forecasted temperatures so far today being within a degree or two for the most part have opted to forego any heat-related products and instead will continue to monitor conditions. surface temperatures today are forecast to max out in the low 90s to around 105 across the region will be slightly cooler tomorrow afternoon. Accompanied by overnight lows in the mid-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Summer-like temperatures continue through Tuesday, with a Heat Risk approaching the Major/Extreme Categories across the Brush Country. - A frontal passage on Tuesday will reduce the heat risk. Upper ridge influence continues to bring summer-like temperatures across South Texas Tuesday. Combined with Gulf-rich moisture, heat indices have a high-likelihood of remaining above 105F across much of South Texas. Across the western Brush Country and along the Rio Grande, a dry line passage will lower minimum relative humidity ranges to 10-20% range, resulting in an elevated fire risk Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, an upper level trough over the Intermountain West will begin lifting as it moves into the Central Plains. At the surface, this translates to a frontal passage throughout Central and South Texas, switching winds from southerly to N/NE'ly. Ensemble models continue to place the southern extent of >20% PoPs from Central Texas, and to the north, Tuesday through Wednesday. The next best chance for rain is actually located more along a lee trough forming along the Sierra Madre Oriental. As of this forecast, this still keeps most of South Texas under 15% PoPs, so confidence for Wednesday-Friday rainfall is low. Post front Wednesday still brings highs at or above 100F across the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, highs will remains in the 90s except along the immediate coastline. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Aviation conditions will continue to deteriorate through the night to a mixture of MVFR/IFR levels due to low ceilings and patchy fog development. These poor aviation conditions will likely persist through the mid to late morning hours, before lifting back to VFR in the afternoon. Winds will become light overnight, but breezy conditions will return to the forecast by Saturday afternoon with gusts to 20-25 knots. Winds are forecast to the decouple by the evening hours on Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Moderate to fresh onshore flow with 4-5 ft seas will persist through Monday morning, with bays and nearshore waters having strong (BF 5) wind gusts Monday afternoon along with seas increasing to 5-6 ft. Tuesday, winds will become more gentle longshore flow from the northeast through Thursday with seas decreasing through Friday down to 3-4 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 91 78 90 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 79 105 79 104 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 76 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 79 105 78 104 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 86 79 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....NP/92 AVIATION...ANM/88