####018004496#### FXUS66 KSEW 170404 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 904 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cloudy and showery conditions will continue across the region through the weekend with temperatures remaining below normal. The chance of thunderstorms will increase to around 20 percent across much of the region Saturday afternoon. Showers continue through the start of next week as the pattern remains somewhat active. A shift to warmer conditions is possible late next week. .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over Western Washington. Doppler radar has showers from about Everett northward and along the coast. Temperatures at 9 pm/04z were in the 50s. Forecast on track tonight with upper level trough offshore moving into Western Washington Saturday keeping showers in the forecast. Slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon with the trough axis right overhead. Felton Previous discussion...More showers are headed our way tonight and Saturday as an upper level trough moves in. Showers will be enhanced during the afternoon with the passing trough axis and a convergence zone developing in the interior. The air mass will be slightly unstable with a chance of thunderstorms too. Up in the mountains, snow levels will lower from around 4500' down to 3500' Saturday night and the Cascades may see light snowfall accumulations. A cool upper low remains overhead on Sunday for more clouds, light showers, and overall cool conditions. Most of she shower activity remains over the Cascades where snow levels stay low (3500-4500'). We'll see a brief break in the weather with a ridge late Sunday, then more rain on Monday with the next frontal system. Temperatures remain cooler than average with highs around 60 degrees. 33 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...There is broad troughing over the Pac NW next week with ongoing onshore flow. A series of weak upper level systems will clip the area for a chance of showers through the period. Late in the week (and next weekend) there are signs of warmer and drier weather with stronger ridging over the region. The majority of the ensemble members show highs reaching the 70s over the weekend. 33 .AVIATION...Westerly flow becoming southwesterly tonight as the next in a series of upper troughs and associated weak fronts approaches Western Washington. The air mass remains moist with widespread MVFR to pockets of IFR ceilings. Shower coverage will increase overnight into early Saturday with ceilings remaining around MVFR to IFR. KSEA...Low end VFR improvement is expected to be brief. Showers will increase late tonight into Saturday with low MVFR or occasional IFR ceilings. Surface winds S/SW 7 knots or less turning light and variable during the overnight period then returning to S/SW and increasing to 8 to 12 knots by later Saturday afternoon. 27/McMillian && .MARINE...Another front will dissipate as it moves into the coastal waters overnight. Surface high pressure will then rebuild over the coastal waters later Saturday into Sunday. This will produce increasing onshore flow and headlines for the coastal waters, strait, and northern portions of the inland waters. The next frontal system will arrive on Monday. 27 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for Admiralty Inlet. && $$ ####018005648#### FXUS64 KOUN 170405 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1105 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1101 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - Severe weather is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. - Above normal temperatures will continue well into early next week; cooler toward midweek && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Despite another front moving through our area today, clear skies are allowing temperatures to climb above normal (low 80s to low 90s). Storms (with severe potential) are expected to develop southeast of our forecast area, and there is an outside chance one of these could wander into the southeast portions of our forecast area between 4PM and 8PM. Most likely solution, however, is for today to remain dry across our forecast area. Quiet night tonight with lows in the 50s (NW OK) to mid 60s (SE OK). Day && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The severe risk ramps up Saturday afternoon and evening (2pm to 10pm) as a shortwave moves over the region. The major players will be a dryline in our western counties, a warm front moving north to near I-40, and a largely unstable and deeply sheared warm sector to the east and south of these boundaries. Highest confidence will be for storms initiating off the dryline in central Texas and moving northeast through south central Oklahoma with primarily a large hail / damaging wind threat. There is a lower chance for storms farther north, but these would carry some tornado risk (low risk) due to potential interactions with the warm front. There is also some uncertainty in where the two boundaries will land at initiation time, affecting where the warm sector will be and where the greatest tornado risk will be. Another day of severe weather is expected Sunday as the main upper low draws closer, sending another shortwave around. Sunday's pattern has a more classic May look with all hazards possible in the afternoon / evening. The dryline will be the focal point, most likely in western OK / western north TX (some uncertainty in position) with scattered storms firing along and east of this boundary Sunday afternoon then shifting eastward. A caveat to Sunday: some models keep the mid level forcing further north. This is a lower chance scenario but would result in only isolated (but still significant) or no coverage. Day && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Severe storms will remain possible Monday and maybe Tuesday. The dryline will retreat some Sunday but then move east across portions of the fa again Monday. A cold front then is expected to move across the area Monday night into Tuesday. At upper levels, the trough that remains over the western U.S. through the weekend will move east into the Plains Monday into Tuesday providing some additional lift to the area. Storm development will once again be possible near and east of the dryline Monday afternoon/evening. Storms will remain possible into Monday night/early Tuesday as the front begins to move across the area. The moist, unstable airmass will continue east of the dryline and south of the front so the severe storm potential will continue Monday into early Tuesday. All hazards will be possible. Additional severe storms could be possible again on Tuesday but there is more uncertainty and could be somewhat dependent on how things evolve Monday night into early Tuesday. The upper trough is expected to move east of the area Tuesday/ Tuesday night although a shortwave rotating around the backside will drag a re-enforcing cold front across the area. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be a little bit cooler with highs more in the 70s to low 80s whereas over the weekend into Monday highs are expected to be in the 80s and 90s. With multiple days of severe storms possible, everyone needs to stay weather aware through the weekend into early next week but not everyone is going to see storms every single day. In other words, some days will be dry for some. With some uncertainties in the details, check the forecast for the latest information. 25/Day && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Light and variable winds will become easterly/southeasterly as a warm front lifts to the north. MVFR stratus still appears likely across southeast Oklahoma (KDUA) and may extend as far northwest as central Oklahoma (KOKC/KOUN) after sunrise before lifting late morning. By afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with PROB30s included in the terminals that have the chance of being affected. The most intense thunderstorms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 86 66 86 / 0 20 20 30 Hobart OK 59 90 64 89 / 0 10 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 63 91 67 89 / 0 20 10 30 Gage OK 51 86 57 91 / 0 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 54 81 61 84 / 0 10 40 50 Durant OK 65 89 70 85 / 0 50 30 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...10