####018005306#### FXUS64 KLIX 170457 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A persistence forecast package is in place for today as the region continues to see a deep layer ridge axis be the dominant feature through the weekend. There will be some weakening of the ridge tomorrow as a northern stream trough passes through the Midwest, but a continued strong capping inversion in the mid-levels will prohibit deeper updrafts from developing. At most, a very isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop in southwest Mississippi tomorrow afternoon where the capping inversion is expected to be weakest. Additionally, if an updraft is able to punch through the cap and develop a storm, it could turn strong and produce some gusty winds as drier air aloft and steep low level lapse rates beneath the inversion support a higher than average downdraft potential. Elsewhere, the same conditions observed today can be expected for both Saturday and Sunday. Morning cloud cover that forms beneath that mid-level inversion will mix out to a mostly sunny sky by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 70s, and highs will easily warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with the hottest temperatures inland and away from any coastal influences. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Conditions on Monday will remain the same as those seen this weekend as the deep layer ridge over the Gulf South continues to be the dominant weather feature. Morning clouds and lows in the low to mid 70s will give way to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Monday night will see similar conditions with another round of cloud cover forming after midnight. Tuesday into Wednesday will be a more transitional period of weather as the ridge axis over the area finally begins to shift to the east in response to a deepening longwave trough over the Plains states. This deepening trough will drive a cold front through the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday, and just enough moisture return into the mid-levels should be sufficient to produce some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday night into Wednesday. Any convection should be confined to the front itself and rainfall will generally be short-lived with QPF of less than a quarter of an inch expected. Fortunately, shear profiles are not supportive of any strong to severe thunderstorm activity as the front moves through the area. Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front with highs climbing back to near 90 degrees on Tuesday. However, a surge of cooler air on the back of a deep layer northwest flow pattern will advect into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will fall back closer to average on Wednesday and should fall to slightly below average in the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thursday. A much drier airmass will also move in and this will push dewpoints from the lower 70s down into the 50s on Thursday. With largely clear skies and lighter winds in place by Thursday night, lows will easily dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s resulting in a refreshing break from the recent heat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A stratus deck is building in with overnight cooling temperatures. Any locations that are still at VFR will change over very soon to MVFR. MVFR conditions at all terminals could degrade further with ceilings at or just below 1000 feet. At MCB the stratus build down will merge into a light fog situation from around 12 to 14Z with visibilities dropping to around 4SM. By 14 to 15Z the temperature inversion will begin to mix out giving improving conditions as the stratus deck breaks up and lifts. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A broad surface high pressure system centered over the eastern Gulf will keep a persistent onshore flow regime in place through Tuesday. Winds will range from 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the period. On Wednesday, a cold front will push through the coastal waters. Winds will turn more westerly and then northwesterly through the day and some scattered thunderstorm activity will accompany the frontal passage. These thunderstorms could produce some locally gusty winds as they move through. Other than that thunderstorm threat on Wednesday, a very benign stretch of weather is anticipated for the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 73 92 70 / 0 0 10 10 BTR 91 75 92 73 / 0 0 10 0 ASD 90 74 91 73 / 0 0 10 0 MSY 89 75 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 75 86 75 / 0 0 10 0 PQL 85 73 86 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...DS MARINE...PG ####018009039#### FXUS64 KEPZ 170458 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1058 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy Saturday, then windy again Sunday/Monday with widespread blowing dust and critical fire danger. - Dry weather through the week ahead as lowland temperatures warm to the mid-to-upper nineties by Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 The windy season is about to have its last hoorah in the form of an upper trough swinging into the Great Basin/central Rockies this weekend. Before it impacts us Sun/Mon, a weak cut-off low off the Baja gets swept up into the synoptic flow and brings us more high-level moisture for Saturday. Cloud cover looks to thicken a bit by the AM ahead of the shortwave with a few virga showers possible. The low levels will be way too dry for any precip to reach the ground before the trough exits to the east tomorrow afternoon. The shortwave induces a modest lee cyclone around NE NM for the afternoon, allowing for breezy PM winds from the SW with gusts to around 35 mph and patchy BLDU along the Int'l border into the evening. For Sunday, a strong upper trough digs into the Four Corners, resulting in a 990-ish mb low in SE CO at 0z Mon. Lee troughing develops across NM Sunday afternoon with 850mb winds of 25-35kts. A breezy/windy afternoon is expected along with areas of blowing dust downstream (E-NE) of dust sources. Blowing Dust Advisories may be needed for Sunday for much of the lowlands due to the favorable wind direction and strong enough winds. A few gusts to 50 mph can be seen in area mountains and east slopes on Sunday, but not consistent or widespread enough to warrant any wind advisories at this time. On Monday, another shortwave looks to slide in from the west behind the first one, bringing a Pacific cold front with it. Temperatures won't fall that much behind the boundary, but winds will be as strong or stronger compared to Sunday and shift westerly. The GFS is slower with the front compared to the Euro and its AI model which bring the front through by noon Monday. The GFS has the frontal passage Monday evening, so we still have to iron out specifics in terms of dust potential, wind direction, fire danger, etc. As of now, W winds of 25-35 mph are forecast with gusts to 50 mph for most areas on Monday. Wind Advisories are most favored to be issued for area mtns and east slopes (medium chance of issuance). Areas of blowing dust and reduced VIS are concerns as well with more potential Blowing Dust Advisories Mon. The system quickly ejects to the east Monday night, allowing more tranquil weather to return for the rest of the period. Lighter winds and slightly below normal temps are expected into the middle of next week. Precip chances remain near zero, although some models are hinting at a little cut-off low near the Baja picking up some moisture from the Gulf around midweek. Chances of this seem slim at the moment with the more likely scenario being an upper ridge developing over the Desert SW and heating us up late in the week. Highs approach 100 for KELP beginning on Thursday (55% chance) and continue into next weekend. To put it into context, the average first triple digit day for El Paso is May 31st, so we'd be about a week early compared to the 1991-2020 normal if we hit 100 in this upcoming stretch. Winds will be light to modestly breezy from Tuesday onward. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies BKN250 through the night, becoming SCT250 during the morning and eventually SKC to FEW250 during the afternoon. Winds generally light at 5-10 knots during the overnight and morning. Winds will increase during the late morning and afternoon hours. An AWW is in effect from 20Z-03Z for KELP with SW winds of 20-25 knots and gusts to 30-35 knots. With that comes the possibility of blowing dust, isolated instance of 1-3 mile VIS restrictions possible during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Worsening fire weather conditions are expected through the weekend. Modestly breezy winds continue into this evening from the southwest, creating some elevated fire danger. For Saturday, winds begin to increase from the southwest with continued dry conditions, resulting in elevated to critical fire danger. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for south-central NM for Saturday afternoon due to 20-ft winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Windy conditions are forecast Sunday and Monday as an upper-level system pushes into the Rockies, creating significant lee-side troughing along the Southern High Plains. Widespread critical to extreme fire danger is expected Sunday with lower confidence for Monday due to the timing of the Pacific cold front. Although winds will remain quite strong for Monday, shifting westerly, the frontal passage could raise RHs to near or even above critical levels if it's fast enough. Fire Wx Watches remain in effect area-wide for Sunday with an upgrade expected within the next 24 hours. Depending on the timing of the front, Monday could follow suit. Typical afternoon breeziness is expected after Monday with low surface moisture content, resulting in elevated fire danger. Fuels will continue to dry this weekend under warm, southwesterly flow with ERCs near or above 90th percentile. Overnight recoveries will be poor through Saturday night, becoming fair to good early next week. Temperatures will be near or below normal through early next week with no threat of rain. Min RHs range from 5-12% with the mountains at 12-20% on Monday due to the cold front. Vent rates will be excellent through Monday, then good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 92 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 87 56 87 / 0 10 0 0 Las Cruces 56 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 62 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 77 46 74 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 55 87 50 87 / 0 10 0 0 Lordsburg 53 84 47 82 / 0 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 95 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 61 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 92 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 87 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 87 51 86 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 61 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 59 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 74 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 73 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 71 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 75 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 82 48 80 / 0 10 0 0 Spaceport 52 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 77 42 74 / 0 10 0 0 Hurley 48 80 44 78 / 0 10 0 0 Cliff 47 83 44 81 / 0 10 0 0 Mule Creek 46 79 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 79 47 77 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 53 85 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers ####018005725#### FXUS63 KGLD 170458 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1058 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southerly winds may develop behind the dryline over portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Sunday afternoon, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. - Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the Tri- State area late Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly along and north of Interstate 70. Low confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage in the NWS Goodland county warning area. Conditional potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 A vertically stacked low (centered over Minnesota at 20Z this afternoon) will progress east across the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. In the wake of this feature, an upper level ridge will amplify over the Central-Northern Plains (Sat-Sat night). Meanwhile, an upper level trough will Today-Tonight: Ongoing breezy to strong WNW-NW winds (McCook measured a 51 mph gust at 1740 UTC).. associated with a tight MSLP-850 mb height gradient on the southern and southwestern fringe of the vertically stacked low.. will quickly diminish at/around sunset this evening as the low progresses east toward the Great Lakes.. the MSLP-850 mb height gradient slackens.. insolation wanes and vertical mixing abruptly decreases. Winds will become light and variable overnight.. as modest surface high pressure over the Dakotas extends southward into the Tri- State area. Sat-Sat night: Expect dry conditions.. as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Central-Northern Plains. Modest ESE-SE low- level return flow will gradually become established Sat aft- eve.. as surface high pressure extending into the region from the north gradually shifts eastward. Virtually all guidance indicates that a strong cap will be in place over the region.. suggesting little, if any, potential for convective development. Convection allowing guidance suggests that meager high-based updrafts will be confined to topographically/geographically favored areas (higher elevations of the Palmer Divide) where convective inhibition will be weaker (though, so will instability). While ~15 knot SSW steering flow may usher updrafts toward portions of Kit Carson and Yuma Counties in CO.. increasingly subsident/capped environmental conditions to the east will tend to weaken/suppress development (with eastern extent). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Sun-Sun night: An upper level trough digging SSE ashore the Pacific Coast Sat-Sat night will broaden and stall in vicinity of the 4-Corners on Sun. Cyclonic shear vorticity on the eastern periphery of the trough (over the central Rockies) will foster the development of a modest lee cyclone over eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas during the day. Southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the upper trough (in the lee of the central-southern Rockies) and deep vertical mixing will assist the northward advancement of a pronounced dryline.. to the I-70 corridor (possibly as far north as Hwy 36).. and that strong southerly winds may develop behind the dryline Sun afternoon. While thermodynamic/environmental conditions are favorable for severe weather (especially with southern and eastern extent over central-eastern KS, where rich low-level moisture will be present).. these areas will also be further removed from upper forcing (and in closer vicinity to the central CONUS ridge).. and significant uncertainty exists with regard to whether or not (and where) low-level forcing will be sufficient to overcome convection inhibition. At this time, it is uncertain whether or not convection will develop in the NWS Goodland CWA. Overall, convection appears more likely to develop in northeast CO and southwest NE (in closer proximity to upper forcing).. where thermodynamic/environmental conditions are less favorable for.. albeit still supportive-of.. severe weather. Mon-Tue: Long range guidance suggests that the broad upper trough / upper level low will progress east across the Central Plains in this period. Expect above average chances for precipitation and near-average to below-average temperatures. Wed: Subsidence in the wake of the broad upper low departing the region will foster dry conditions and near-average temperatures. Thu-Fri: Long range guidance suggests that a modest unidirectional flow pattern will prevail over the Central Plains late next week.. as an upper level ridge develops over the Desert Southwest. Expect dry conditions and a warming trend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites through the period. Mostly clear skies are forecast over the area with prevailing dry air. Winds are forecast to generally be below 10 kts tonight. Winds are then forecast to pick up closer to 15 kts tomorrow late in the morning and then subside again closer to 00Z while becoming more easterly/southeasterly. There is a chance for fog tomorrow night (Sat night), but it is currently forecast to occur after 06Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...KAK ####018008964#### FXUS63 KEAX 170459 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1159 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Quiet, very pleasant Saturday * Active pattern ramps up Sunday, continues into Wednesday - Strong to severe storms possible each of Sunday night/overnight, Monday, and Tuesday. - Greatest severe storm chances currently appear Monday - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall may lead to overland and river flooding concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 After a few elevated showers this morning passed through NE Missouri and into Iowa, skies largely cleared out behind a passing compact shortwave and gave way to a pretty comfortable day across the area. With surface boundary, primarily a dry line, situated over SE Missouri, dew points remained abundantly pleasant, in the 40s to low 50s deg F and aided in keeping skies mostly clear. Some mid-higher level cloud cover wrapping around the closed low over Minnesota arrived this afternoon over NW/N Missouri, but should stay largely relegated north of I-70, if not Highway 36, and more scattered in nature. Main, if any, consequence there is slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s vs lower 80s elsewhere. Of greater note though, breezy conditions across the area, especially N/NW where surface pressure gradient is strongest. Deep boundary layer mixing has too aided in periodic wind gusts into the low to mid 30s mph, which will continue into the early if not mid-evening hours before some easing. Pressure gradient remains tight enough overnight to for sustained winds greater than 10mph along/north of I-70 and occasional gusts to the upper teens/20mph before further easing Saturday morning. Still expected to see fair degree of nocturnal cooling with amply dry air and CAA ongoing, upper 40s/low 50s low temps Saturday morning. Saturday itself remains expected to be a fantastic day by virtually all standards with surface high influence keeping skies clear and easing winds, comfortable dew points, and forecast highs largely in the 70s. As we work into Sunday, little has changed with regard to the expected large scale pattern transition to a much more active stance. First western CONUS mid-upper shortwave digs toward/into the desert SW, pushing ridging/height rises across the central CONUS and inducing Lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and Colorado Front Range. Locally, this will see a warm front begin to march northward Sunday and the beginnings of a prolonged period of strong theta-e/WAA/moisture advection (really however you want to reference it). Expectation remains for showers and non-severe thunderstorms to be associated with this northward marching warm front Sunday. While there are ingredients in place for potential stronger/severe storm or two Sunday afternoon/evening, fair amount of capping and storm motions parallel to the frontal boundary limit potential. Instead, if boundary is slow to work northward, training activity may prime the pump, so to speak, for future hydrologic threats with additional rounds of activity expected thru Tuesday. Current synoptic guidance depictions suggest warm front to only reach around I-70/Highway 36 corridors during the daytime/early evening hours. By the latter evening and into the overnight, initial western CONUS mid-upper wave attempts to work off the Rockies, deepening and pushing associated surface low eastward toward the CO/NE/KS shared border area. Increasing wind fields and overall lift/dynamics will yield explosive convection and likely severe/supercellular activity. While well westward, this activity too is expected to grow upscale into an MCS and may affect the forecast area during the late evening and overnight hours. Potential MUCAPE depictions >1500 J/kg and strong wind fields may yield a continuing/ongoing wind threat, but is anticipated to be on a weakening trend as it outruns stronger instability. This 'could' be the first hydrologic threat potential depending on overlap over greatest preceding Sunday rainfall amounts. GFS/GEFS is notably further N/NE with this Sunday/Sunday night activity vs the Euro and its ensemble, something to watch. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to depict a secondary shortwave dropping into the desert SW by Monday. As it does so, it prevents initial/leading shortwave from completely ejecting into the Plains. Instead pulling it back westward and instigating Fujiwara- like action. This will keep warm/moist southerly flow ongoing over the area and continue to moisten up the region. PWats >1.70" are widely depicted among guidance by Monday, which would put it well above 90th percentile via SPC Sounding Climatology page for TOP and toward maximums for this time of the year. With some eastward movement of the broader western trough and negative tilt, dynamics become such that Monday afternoon/evening remains the forecast area's best opportunity for severe storms during this active stretch. The broader details within the warm sector, SB/MUCAPE >2500 J/kg, 0-6km bulk shear >40-50kts, moderate to steep mid level lapse rates, warm front and dry line boundaries nearby, LCLs <1 km all suggest all modes of severe weather may be in play. Certainly large (possibly very large) hail and damaging winds. Tornadic activity may be a bit more suspect and dependent on warm frontal boundary to enhance low level rotation in otherwise questionable hodographs within the warm sector. GFS/GEFS and Euro oriented AI/Machine Learning/Analogues continue highlight Monday with our greatest potential, though of note they have ticked upward over the western forecast area with regards to Sunday night/overnight. Hydrologic threat potentially builds during this time frame should areas that see moderate to heavy rainfall be similar to previous opportunities from Sunday and Sunday overnight. Bolstered by efficient rainfall potential with warm cloud layer depths approaching 4km and GFS/Euro ensembles and NBM all broadly depict 50th to 90th percentile QPF spreads of roughly 1.75" to 4" thru Monday overnight. Take away too being the potential for locally greater rainfall amounts given convective nature that is difficult to grasp within synoptic models. With some of the question into overlapping moderate/heavy rainfall, WPC EROs continue to depict Slight risks over the Days 3-5 (Sun-Tue) time frames. Details continue to hash out, but certainly no reason to let guard down for Monday afternoon/evening at this point in time. A strong/severe threat lingers into Tuesday as the western trough/dueling shortwaves gradually work into the central to northern High Plains. Much may depend on how Monday shakes out with regards to lingering boundaries, cloud cover, etc as a good portion of the area appears poised to remain within the warm sector. However, this is also where guidance begins to diverge in its handling of the mid-upper low evolution and track, let alone surface details. Risk does appear to slide eastward overall though, limiting chances for western forecast area (incl KC Metro) to see third day of strong/severe threat. Large scale pattern evolution through the early-mid week time frame does also take on an Omega block appearance, further slowing down the exit and drying out of the region. As the western portion of the block continues to gradually drift eastward, consensus is for it to undercut mid-upper level ridging and become absorbed and aide in the retrograde and development/re-development of a closed mid-upper low system over the Great Lakes. This will eventually push a cold frontal boundary and drier air through the region, but possibly not before an additional few showers pass with front. This too likely pushes temperatures well below normal for a day or two, possibly into upper 50s/60s && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with clear skies other than a few passing high clouds Saturday afternoon and again late Saturday evening. WNW winds may stay a bit elevated overnight, with occasional gusts up to 20 knots, with gusts relaxing by around 10z Saturday (sustained winds around 10-12 knots). Winds should turn northwesterly throughout the day on Saturday, with winds becoming light (around 5 knots) and out of the north by Saturday evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...BMW