####018005131#### FXUS61 KILN 181030 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 630 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area through the beginning of the week, keeping the area mainly dry with near normal temperatures. A large upper level low pressure system will move in towards the middle of the week bringing cool, unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into the area. Stratocumulus clouds lingering across the north will decrease in coverage this morning. Diurnally driven cumulus will develop again today but coverage will be less than yesterday. High level clouds will also spill in from the southwest. Temperatures will be near normal with highs between 70 and 75. West winds at less than 10 mph this morning will become more northwest at 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight. Expect mainly clear skies with only some thin high level clouds after the aftn cumulus clouds dissipate. Low temperatures drop off to readings ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Some of the model solutions graze our southwest with a shortwave ahead of mid level ridging that begins to build in later Monday. Airmass is rather dry and with supporting evidence for a dry forecast have trimmed back NBM pops in coverage and also down to slight chance across the far southwest. Temperatures look to continue near normal with highs generally from 70 to 75. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper ridge just west of CWA weakens as it crosses CWA overnight. Ridge settles over OH/PA during Tues and then gets ejected ewd as upper low over MN/IA pushes a lobe of s/w energy through CWA late in the day. Closed low meanders slowly to the se overnight Tues towards IA/IL and opens up with an ewd translation of energy, generally agreed to be over lower MI though NAM suggests it to be further s in nrn OH. The more nly solutions of the w-e trough are indicating a strong s/w crossing into sw CWA later overnight or early Wed. This energy pulls apart the parent low and evolves to an open trough over/east of CWA by Wed eve and rapidly moves e to the Mid Atlantic by daybreak Thu, leaving OH Vly in nw flow aloft through Thurs. Upper mass fields are trying to resolve another s/w crossing the area in this mean flow, but widely vary beginning Thu afternoon into the evening. NW flow persists through the end of the forecast and tightens as a cutoff low north of OH Vly tracks se. NW-se surface ridge cuts through ne OH overnight and on Mon, crossing into PA overnight. Surface low in IA extends a warm front to the e and then se, cutting through CWA during the day Tues and lift nwd. This w-e front lays out over nrn OH with energy translating e overnight and early Wed. A cutoff H8 low develops under the h5 open trough and settles over far ne OH then wraps around a cold front in the late day and evening. H8 NNW flow in the low's wake Thu turns more nw, lasting through Sat until a ridge moves in overnight and on Sun. Showers will reach the IN/OH border as they enter from the west by daybreak Tues. Activity will notably increase during the day as deeper convection takes over, affecting entire CWA and continuing through the evening, decreasing towards daybreak Wed. Precip will become more prevalent again on Wed as h8 CAA promotes instby showers during the daylight hours. Remainder of the forecast should be dry, but a sprinkle or light shower can't be ruled out in the late day Thurs/Fri. Temps in the 60s to low 70s through Wed will drop to the upper 50s- mid 60s Thu/Fri and then rebound to near 70 by Sun. Lows in the 50s Sun/Mon night will drop into the 40s through Sat night and then begin to moderate Sat night where they round out close to 50. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into the area. Stratocumulus clouds lingering across the north with VFR ceilings between 5000 and 6000 feet will decrease thru the morning. Diurnally driven cumulus will develop again today but coverage will be less than yesterday. High level clouds will also spill in from the southwest. The cumulus clouds will dissipate with sunset leaving just some high level clouds tonight. Some valley fog will be possible at KLUK and have limited any mention to MVFR vsby restriction overnight. West winds at less than 10 kts this morning will veer a little more northwest around 10 kts this afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...AR ####018008152#### FXUS62 KTAE 181032 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 632 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Today will be fairly similar to yesterday both in terms of atmospheric setup and environmental characteristics. A weak mid- level shortwave will move across the Tennessee Valley today, embedded within a broader ridging pattern over the Mississippi Valley. Currently, there is an MCS over northern Mississippi that will generally move east-southeastward over northern Mississippi into central Alabama and eventually central Georgia. This will also help send out an outflow boundary into our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties again this afternoon. This, combined with any leftover boundaries from yesterday's storms, will be the focus for scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon and evening. Rain chances are confined to the Alabama and Georgia counties today and are around 30-40%. The environment today is fairly similar to yesterday, though the amount of mid-level dry air is slightly less than yesterday. Overall, there will be plenty of instability to work with given the hot, humid conditions. Additionally, deep-layer shear is on the order of about 40 kt. With the slight reduction in mid-level dry air, DCAPE values are generally around 750-900 J/kg, which is still enough to cause localized downbursts. Thus, a few strong to severe storms are possible again this afternoon and evening with the main threats being isolated damaging wind gusts and small to medium size hail. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas roughly from Georgetown, GA to Tifton, GA northward in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for today. However, some of the hi-res guidance does indicate that storms could be strong farther south then this risk area, and I wouldn't be surprised if some southward expansion to cover more of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia is needed in later outlooks. If you have outdoor plans, especially north of the Florida border, keep an eye to the sky. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you're close enough to be struck by lightning. When thunder roars, go indoors! Outside of the storms, it will be yet another hot, humid day. Highs will be in the low to mid-90s across the area with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100. Remember your heat safety tips: stay hydrated, stay in the A/C or shade, wear light clothing, and never leave anyone (including pets) in a vehicle alone. Lows tonight will be in low 70s with mid-70s along the Emerald Coast. Another round of patchy fog is expected tonight. Note: the record high for today is 97 at TLH, with a deterministic forecast of 95. However, the NBM does have a 10-20% chance of tying or breaking the record for today. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Ridging rebuilds across the area Monday, then begins to shift eastward Tuesday. This will reduce rain chances both days, but tick temperatures upward as a result. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to possibly upper 90s across inland areas with upper 80s to lower 90s near the coast. Heat index values will remain in the upper 90s to near 100 each afternoon. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s. Note: the record highs for TLH for Monday and Tuesday are 96 and 98, respectively. There is a 40-50% chance of breaking the record on Monday and a 10% chance of breaking the record on Tuesday, derived from the NBM. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 If you're looking for a reprieve from the heat, look ahead toward the latter half of the week. Troughing takes hold of the eastern US for the end of the week with a cold front moving through the forecast area on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the day Wednesday. However, there is some discrepancy in the model outputs. The GFS ensemble suite tends to be on the drier side, bringing drier air in faster and limiting rain chances. Meanwhile, the European and Canadian ensemble systems are wetter, bringing a better chance of scattered showers and storms, which appears to match the overall pattern a bit better. Additionally, with the presence of some shear and instability, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out Wednesday, though it's too early to give specific details. High temperatures will still be in the lower 90s Wednesday, then drop back into the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday. Lows will fall into the lower 60s with pockets of upper 50s. Temperatures begin to heat back up next weekend as ridging tries to build back over the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Stratus with patchy fog has overspread nearly every terminal this morning. IFR to MVFR cigs and vsbys continue with through 14z before the fog and stratus mixes out. VFR conditions prevail thereafter. Scattered TSRA will move in from the northwest this afternoon toward DHN and ABY. Confidence on timing and coverage is still on the lower side, so have maintained PROB30 groups for now. Some gusty, erratic winds will be possible near TSRA. Another round of stratus and patchy fog is possible near the end of the TAF period, so have indicated MVFR vsbys with IFR cigs for most terminals after 09z. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Light south to southwest winds and 1-2 foot seas will continue through Tuesday with high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. A cold front approaches the marine area Wednesday with some showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds increase ahead of the front to near cautionary levels, and seas will also build to around 3 feet in response. Winds turn westerly to northwesterly behind the front late Wednesday into Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 South to southwest transport winds around 10-15 mph will continue for the next several days. Mixing heights will be around 4,000-5,000 feet today, increasing further heading into Monday and Tuesday. Thus, this will result high dispersions, especially away from the coast. Scattered showers and storms will be possible today across the Alabama and Georgia zones, mainly this afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning will be the main threats with storms. Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday. Patchy fog will be possible each night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 While locally heavy downpours are possible in isolated to scattered storms, widespread flash or riverine flooding is not anticipated for the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 70 95 70 / 10 10 0 0 Panama City 85 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 91 70 93 70 / 30 20 0 0 Albany 93 71 95 71 / 40 20 0 0 Valdosta 95 71 96 70 / 20 20 0 0 Cross City 90 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 72 84 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>010-012>014. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Young MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young ####018003975#### FXUS61 KRNK 181034 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 634 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather can be expected into early Monday. It will be breezy at times. Unsettled weather is expected to return by Tuesday, as another storm system heads toward our area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1) Dry and seasonable with a west/northwest breeze today. High pressure will situate itself over the TN Valley today while low pressure over New England heads into the Canadian maritimes. We will still have a pressure gradient to keep some breezes going, but not as strong as Saturday. Going to see some mid/high clouds today with faster flow aloft and embedded waves. Still should be near normal for highs with upper 70s to lower 80s east, to lower to mid 70s west. The weak high moves overhead tonight. Will keep temps about normal. Winds should weaken with lows in the mid 40s to around 50 in the mountains, to mid 50s east. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1) Showers/few storms Tue-Wed Storm system with closed low over the central Plains enters the Midwest this period. At the surface a warm front lifts northward from the TN Valley early Tuesday into our area Wednesday. Should see shower chances increase especially by later Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time models show most areas receiving a half inch to an inch during this time, with areas northwest of Roanoke/Blacksburg getting over an inch. Severe parameters favor more storm coverage across the deep south into the TN Valley and lower Ohio Valley Tuesday. Heading into the day Wednesday, cloud cover may inhibit instability but having a warm front bisecting the area from west-east with directional shear surface to 7h, may pose a severe threat, where rotating storms are possible. At the moment, model consensus and pattern favors more severe weather to our southwest and possibly into NC. Will have to see where this boundary lays up and how much heating we get Wednesday. At the same time, with a slow moving boundary, heavy downpours from training storms could cause localized flooding concerns, especially in the mountains and urban areas. Monday starts warmer with highs in the lower 80s east to 70s, west by Tue-Wed will be slightly cooler depending on clouds/shower coverage with 70s for most, and even some 60s for highs across the Shenandoah Valley/Alleghanys. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Slow moving upper low will keep shower chances into Friday 2) Cooling trend late next week An upper low will slowly move over the Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic through Saturday keeping us in winter like trough, with northwest flow allowing for showers to hang around at times into Saturday mainly in the mountains. Highs and lows will start running around 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the 60s in the mountains to lower 70s east, with lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Sunday... Expect VFR flight categories through the period. Some mid/high clouds at times. West-northwest winds will be gusty but not as strong as Saturday, a few gusts 20kts during the day Sunday before weakening after 00z/Mon. Have some MVFR fog possible at LWB after 09z/Monday. OUTLOOK... VFR into Monday, the storm system arrives midweek with sub-VFR possible along with increasing probabilities of SHRA/TSRA. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DB/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...CG/WP LONG TERM...CG/WP AVIATION...WP