####018006667#### FXUS64 KOHX 152311 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 611 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 553 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight. Strong winds and large hail are the primary threats. - A dynamic weather system will bring the potential for all modes of severe weather to Middle Tennessee Friday evening through the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds are the main concern. - Unsettled weather continues next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Middle TN is currently situated under a warm, moist airmass after a warm front lifted through the area overnight. Dew points are in the mid to upper 60s with temperatures approaching 80 degrees. Being directly underneath the exiting ridge today will push our temperatures up near record values with forecast highs just touching 90 degrees at Nashville this afternoon. The record high for today is 93 set back in 2018. Our upper air pattern will be changing fast upon this ridge exiting as troughing aloft pushes into the area this evening, bringing with it a boundary that could spark scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The latest CAMs keep the better forcing well off to our northwest, but with how unstable we are slated to get this afternoon coupled with shear slightly increasing with the incoming trough, severe parameters are showing up on model soundings, specifically on the latest HRRR. A large cap is noted with immense WAA ongoing between 700-850mb this afternoon, so that should help keep any discrete cells from forming, but if they do, strong to severe storms posing an all-hazard threat could quickly develop. Again, forcing isn't the greatest, but low-level helicity values are over 100, bulk shear values are near 60 kts, and instability in all levels is over 2000 J/kg with leftover daytime heating. The one parameter not quite as great are lapse rates, however, mid- level lapse rates will be near 7 C/km, so strongest storms could see up to quarter-size hail. Outside of any scattered activity that may develop if the cap erodes, the HRRR shows a cluster of storms developing across west TN around midnight and pushing through the area overnight. Gusty winds and hail will be the main threats with the overnight storms. Activity will come to an end by mid-morning Friday. Setup Friday: a shortwave will approach from the northwest with a broad area of diffluent flow near 100 kts at 300mb with a low- level jet maxima near 60 kts. This will provide much better forcing for severe thunderstorm development. Southwesterly flow at 850mb will send dew points surging into the 70s by the afternoon, leading to a highly unstable environment with CAPEs near 3000 J/kg. Friday afternoon/evening: Models show another strongly capped environment in place with a large pocket of warm air noted around 700mb, but a highly unstable environment surrounding it. The chance for discrete cell development out ahead of the main line is low, however, if any cells do develop, they will pose an all- hazards risk, including tornadoes. The greatest area of concern for that to happen is over the northwest quadrant of Middle TN. Ample shear, helicity, instability, and more than sufficient lapse rates (8+ C/km) could mean a significant severe threat with any discrete development. Friday night: Models continue to show an MCS coming together over our northwest and pushing southeast through the entire area. Timing for the main line is roughly 7PM-1AM Saturday. With the line itself, damaging winds (65+ mph) and large hail will be the primary threats. There is sufficient low-level helicity and low LCLs to support a spin-up tornado threat along the leading edge of the line as well. Lastly, very heavy downpours can be expected with the line as PWATs approach 2", but widespread flooding isn't a concern as the line will likely be moving quite fast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Activity will come to an end early Saturday morning, and the remainder of the day will be dry upon the passage of the cold front. Still going to be pretty warm with highs in the 80s and breezy winds between 10-15 mph. A small disturbance aloft will bring medium scattered rain and thunderstorm chances to the area, especially across the southwest with rain chances near 60% Sunday afternoon. As we shift into the new week, the upper air pattern suggests it will be another active weather week as another deep trough ejects out of the Rockies Monday. As this feature treks eastward, daily rain and storm chances will remain in the forecast through at least next Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Radar has been showing patches of light reflectivity late this afternoon, but most of these returns are from mid level clouds with very little showing at the surface. With a capped off atmosphere, we expect a mainly dry evening with VFR conditions across the area. Somewhat gusty SSW winds will settle around 10KT. Later in the night, there could be some showers and storms from a possible weakening MCS coming from our west. Temporary impacts on cigs/vsbys look likely for CKV, but probs are low and very uncertain elsewhere. I think the HRRR may be over-done outside the CKV area given the mid level warm air profile. For daytime Friday, gusty SSW winds over 25KT at times will kick in. VFR will continue through the day. A band of storms with some severe wx is expected to sweep across Middle TN just after the end of this taf period, after 17/00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 88 68 87 / 40 50 90 10 Clarksville 72 86 66 85 / 60 70 90 10 Crossville 68 83 63 81 / 30 40 90 20 Columbia 72 86 67 86 / 40 30 90 10 Cookeville 70 83 65 81 / 40 50 90 10 Jamestown 68 84 63 81 / 30 50 90 10 Lawrenceburg 71 85 67 85 / 30 20 90 10 Murfreesboro 72 87 67 86 / 40 40 90 10 Waverly 68 85 64 84 / 60 60 90 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....13 ####018002902#### FXUS62 KMFL 152257 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 657 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1126 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 To wrap up the week, an upper-level ridge continues build and push it's way further eastward into the Gulf. Meanwhile, at the surface, a body of high pressure parks over the Florida Peninsula. With deep layer dry air and the building ridge, warm and benign conditions will remain in South Florida through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue on an upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coasts this afternoon and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid-60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Surface high and ridging will persist over the Florida peninsula through the extended period. As a result, dry conditions and a warming trend will continue through the weekend and early next week. High temperatures will climb to the mid-upper 90s across southwest Florida, where heat indices could reach 103-105 degrees each afternoon. Meanwhile, overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s. Along coastal areas, seabreezes will help temper conditions during the daytime, keeping highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain balmy in the mid- upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all terminals with no weather concerns through the period. Light winds tonight will increase again tomorrow afternoon out of the southeast for the east coast due to the sea breeze. At APF, winds will be out of the west-southwest in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1126 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days as the calm center of high pressure sits overhead. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 90 75 90 / 0 0 0 10 West Kendall 71 92 73 93 / 0 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 74 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 10 Homestead 73 89 75 90 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 74 88 75 89 / 0 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 73 89 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 76 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 72 91 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 73 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 73 90 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Redman ####018006677#### FXUS65 KPUB 152312 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 512 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain showers expected this evening and tomorrow afternoon, with dry conditions elsewhere. - Increased fire weather concerns meteorologically Saturday into Sunday. - Increased chances for precipitation Monday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Tonight: Other than some mountain showers early, quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, a shortwave on the backside of a larger trough will push quickly over the area. With the uptick in forcing, and modest moisture in place, isolated to scattered light snow showers are expected to be ongoing during the evening hours along the mountains, where forcing will be greatest. With that said though, as diurnal instability wanes through the evening, showers will decrease in coverage, with dry conditions returning during the overnight hours. Beyond all of that, clouds over the area will clear for most throughout the night, with winds becoming light across the region, except along the mountains, where breezy winds will persist into Friday morning. As for temperatures, a cool and slightly below seasonal lows night is anticipated thanks to weakening winds and clearing skies. Given all of that, the plains will fall into the low to mid 40s, the valleys into the upper 20s to mid 30s, and the mountains into the 20s. Tomorrow: For the end of the week, quiet weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado, other than some afternoon mountain showers. Flow will become mostly westerly over the area throughout the day. While no major forcing is anticipated, modest orographic forcing will be ongoing, and this coupled with minor diurnal instability, is expected to allow for isolated light snow showers to blossom along the mountains during the afternoon. Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail. Otherwise, winds will remain breezy around 10 to 15 mph, with clear skies early becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon hours. Looking at temperatures, a warm but near seasonal value day is expected, with the plains rising into the 70s, the valleys into the 60s, and the mountains into the upper 30s to 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 There is decent model agreement with the upper level pattern evolution through the extended period, with differences in the small details. Friday night through Saturday...weak energy in westerly flow aloft will allow for ongoing evening convection, mainly across the Central Mountains. This activity looks to dissipate after sunset and the loss of daytime heating, with clearing conditions across the area by Saturday morning. On Saturday, a quick moving upper shortwave is forecast to track northeast out of New Mexico and into western Kansas by the evening. Southeasterly flow will spread across the Plains through the day. The GFS develops a dryline boundary, from the Palmer Divide, southeast to Baca County. The NAM and extended RRFS bring the southeasterly winds all the way back into the I-25 corridor. Moisture is limited, with dewpoints in the upper 30s, which limits afternoon instability, with up to 500 j/kg of SBCAPE on the Plains. The GFS is most aggressive with developing isolated thunderstorms from the Palmer Divide, into Kiowa County, while the higher-resolution guidance has a few storms further south. Not too excited overall, with the limited moisture and instability, however, a couple of storms could produce small hail and gusty outflow winds. Over the Mountains, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible, dissipating after sunset. For areas of the San Luis Valley, low relative humidity values and gusty winds will likely produce spotty, elevated fire weather conditions. Sunday...the next upper trough is forecast to dig across Utah and begin to impact southern Colorado. Increasing southwesterly flow will spread across the region, with low humidity values spreading from the San Luis Valley, into the Plains. Widespread, critical fire weather conditions will be present, and fuels will have to be monitored. Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph are forecast by the afternoon. This could lead to areas of blowing dust. Moisture will begin to spread into the Continental Divide by the afternoon, with increased showers during the evening and overnight. Monday into Tuesday...the upper trough will eject northeast by Monday morning, while a stronger system deepens on the back side and moves across Colorado Monday into Tuesday. This will send a cold front across the Plains Monday morning, along with the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of southern Colorado. The GFS brings decent QPF amounts to the Plains late Monday into Tuesday morning, while the rest of the long range guidance is more modest in totals. The GFS is also the most widespread with precipitation, with the ECMWF and ICON not as widespread. But, the potential does exist for precipitation for much of southern Colorado. Temperatures will be cooler Monday and Tuesday, with highs falling from the lower to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday, down into the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday into Thursday...flat zonal flow is forecast to develop for mid next week. Overall, not much energy in the flow to work with, with mainly dry conditions forecast for the region. Temperatures will also begin to increase with highs back near 80 during this time period. Mozley && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 422 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Variable mid/high VFR cloudiness will give way to clearing skies overnight before returning again on Fri. Gusty westerly winds will gradually taper down, though will remain elevated overnight, especially at KPUB where it could be intermittently gusty again overnight. Winds will increase again tomorrow afternoon for all three terminals with west to northwest winds gusting up to 25 kts. KCOS may see another period of southeast winds during the morning before the west northwest winds spread into the terminal around 18-19z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...KT ####018009907#### FXUS63 KLMK 152313 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 713 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours. Confidence in storms remains low, but any storms that develop will be capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. * Greater chance of severe storms is Friday evening into Friday night. All severe weather hazards are on the table, including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and torrential rainfall. A few strong tornadoes and instances of very large hail are possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 713 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Storms that moved over the bootheel of Missouri dissipated as they entered into western Kentucky. These remaining showers are drifting over central Kentucky currently. Prior to these showers a broken Cu field developed over the region. Some of these clouds were able to develop showers or even isolated storms. Storms try to grow, however they are limited by the capping. Looking at the most recent ACARS sounding, there is a stout cap. General expectation for the remainder of the night is that this capping will prevent storms from maturing. If a storm is able to break the cap, it would have access to ample ingredients for a severe storm with hail and wind hazards. With large DCAPE values, could see some gusty showers. Will continue to monitor and update as needed. Have decreased the thunder chances in the grids given current trends. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 352 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 So far this afternoon, a summer-like air mass has spread into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys as temperatures are in the low-to-mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The surge in temperatures and moisture has come from deep southwest flow between a negatively-tilted trough which is morphing into a closed low over the Red River Valley of the North and ridging over the southeast US. Pressure falls to the north and west of the region have resulted in breezy S/SW winds this afternoon, and 20-25 mph gusts should continue into this evening. A very active stretch of weather is expected over the next 36 hours as the upper level disturbance to the northwest moves to the east. This afternoon and evening, our first chance of strong to severe storms will come from an ongoing cluster of cells over northern AR and southern MO. As these storms move to the east, they should encounter an increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic profile for sfc- based convection, and should also outrun the best forcing which will be near the sfc cold/occluded front and upper-level jet core over the mid- and upper-MS valley. Latest ACARS soundings show a warm capping layer between 850-700 mb, with surface-based LFCs up around the 700 mb level. However, the cluster of cells to our west could sustain itself if it develops a strong cold pool which could lift otherwise capped parcels to the LFC, and DCAPE ahead of the ongoing storms is fairly high (800-1200 J/kg). An elevated mixed layer atop the capping inversion has 8.5-9 degree C/km lapse rates within it, and a pool of around 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE would be available to parcels which break the cap. Would expect damaging winds and large hail to be the main threats with any storms this evening, and even if storms dissipate, gusty winds from the decaying cold pool/outflow would still be possible. This evening's threat should move quickly through the area between around 7 PM and midnight EDT. There should be a few hours of a lull in convective activity during the late evening and early overnight hours, though hi-res guidance shows another wave of storms trying to develop between 2-4 AM EDT. These storms are likely developing as a mid-level jet exit region noses across the lower Ohio Valley. Sounding profiles show continued instability aloft, though there should be a considerable amount of stability within the boundary. Accordingly, would expect mainly elevated storms late tonight into early Friday morning, with large hail as the primary threat. Any convection which develops should move off to the east and dissipate a few hours after sunrise Friday, and another lull is expected Friday morning. Any lull in convective activity Friday morning will give the atmosphere a chance to reload, resulting in instability and shear parameters which should be even more favorable for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening. As the upper closed low over the upper Midwest pivots to the east on Friday, troughing over the mid-MS valley should amplify, with height falls taking place over the region during the afternoon and evening hours. Near the sfc, increasing south-southwest flow should send a convectively-enhanced frontal boundary northward through the area tomorrow, with temperatures recovering into the mid 80s and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s. This should support MLCAPE values on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg, sufficient for explosive convection Friday afternoon and evening. Deep-layer shear on the order of 55-60 kts will help with storm organization Friday afternoon and evening, and a combination of discrete cells and bowing segments would be expected. Hi-res guidance has been fairly consistent in showing storms growing upscale into one or several large bowing lines, and DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg support SPC's wind probabilities driving the moderate risk for tomorrow. Mid-level lapse rates will still be around 7.5 degrees C/km tomorrow afternoon, so the large hail threat will be supported if/while cells remain somewhat discrete. Looking at the hodograph and low-level shear profiles, while there is some curvature in the low-level wind field, relatively veered near-sfc winds will limit storm-relative helicity values. With this being said, any supercells which may develop would have an increased threat to produce strong tornadoes, and it is also possible that spin-ups could develop along the leading edge of any MCS/QLCS structures. Multiple waves of storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, with storm coverage gradually winding down and pushing into eastern KY after midnight Friday night. All in all, the instability and shear parameters in place (especially tomorrow) support a significant severe weather event across the Ohio Valley. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and a plan in place should a warning be issued tonight through tomorrow night! && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 352 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 By Saturday morning, the actual cold front will be pushing through the area with most of the showers and storms exiting to our east. The associated upper low will be over the Great Lakes with the longwave trough axis extending south over the OH and TN Valleys before flattening out against the subtropical ridge over the Gulf. Weak CAA behind the front will result in climatological normal temperatures for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s accompanied by breezy WSW winds on Saturday. Overall, most will experience a fair weather weekend. Southern KY will see a slight chance of showers on Sunday as the southern edge of the new airmass begins to lift northward due to the next low pressure system strengthening over the Central Plains. This will begin another period of unsettled weather as we enter the beginning of the new work week. By Monday, a warm front will begin lifting across the region resulting in warm and moist air advection, as PWATs surge into the upper percentiles of SPC's sounding climatology. Models tend to agree on convection from our west moving into our area by Monday morning with another round Monday evening. The warm front appears to stall over the region, prolonging our shower and storm chances into Tuesday and Wednesday before the occluded low pushes through on Wednesday. With model soundings advertising sufficient instability and ML guidance also showing enhanced severe probabilities, severe weather can not be ruled out. Details remain hazy this far out, but will continue to monitor closely with subsequent forecast packages. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 A narrow band of high-MVFR/low-VFR cumulus is passing across the area this afternoon, with ceilings VFR outside of this short-lived band. Gusty south-southwest winds are expected during the rest of the afternoon, with 20-25 kt gusts likely. This evening, we'll see remnants of upstream storms move through the area between 23-04Z. By the time it reaches area terminals, we should see mainly scattered showers, though some showers could have gusty winds. Overnight, mainly VFR conditions are expected with convective debris clouds from upstream storms. There is a low confidence chance for TSRA around 06-10Z across the northern terminals; we'll keep mention to PROB30 at this time. With a LLJ overhead, LLWS is possible; however, it is uncertain whether or not winds will continue to mix down to the surface. Friday morning, another layer of high MVFR/low VFR stratocu are expected to develop, with winds picking up during the mid-to-late morning hours. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRW SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...CSG ####018003322#### FXUS64 KLCH 152314 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 614 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure settled over the region will continue to yield a prolonged period of hot and humid weather. - Breezy winds are expected to continue during the day both Friday and Saturday. - Area rivers and bayous are slowly falling below Minor Flood. Flood conditions and elevated hydro flows do continue for some waterways. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Another warm, breezy afternoon ongoing across the region with temperatures presently ranging from 84 to 88 degrees with dewpoints in the mid 70s. As was the case last night, as winds begin to weaken this evening, a low level ceiling is expected to develop with some areas of fog possible by early morning where winds drop below about 8 knots. Any fog that develops should dissipate by 14Z with skies becoming partly cloudy again by late Friday morning. Persistence remains the base forecast philosophy over the next few days. Afternoon highs will continue to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s both Friday and Saturday with breezy winds of 15-20 MPH each day. A weak cold front is progged to approach the region Saturday, but will stall across north Louisiana. The proximity of the front may provide a bit more in the way of cloud cover especially across central Louisiana and a stray shower or two can't be completely ruled out although probabilities are less than 20% Jones && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Warm, dry conditions will persist through the first part of next week with the pattern finally breaking down by Wednesday as a frontal boundary pushes through the region. The current model consensus does depict a modestly cooler airmass in the wake of the fropa that would bring temperatures back down to climatological normals for mid/late May. The boundary will also bring our first appreciable chance of precipitation in over a week which by then will be welcome news to spring time plants. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 MVFR to IFR expected through much of the night and the morning tomorrow before becoming scattered again during the afternoon. Southerly winds will also become gusty once again during the day tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Brisk onshore flow will begin to gradually diminish this evening but will likely remain in the 15 knot range through sunrise Friday before weakening further. Seas will gradually lower through the weekend. Ridging remains in control through early next week and no rain is expected until Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 92 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 74 87 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 74 88 75 89 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 75 88 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...27 ####018005119#### FXUS64 KBMX 152314 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 614 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 - There is a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday night into Saturday morning across the northern portions of Central Alabama and then again late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across much of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 It's quickly warming up out there with the early morning cloud cover now mixed out and a steady supply of sunshine across the area. In the low to mid-levels, a broad ridge is centered over the northern Gulf with warm, dry flow from the west. The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward through tomorrow with deep-layer flow transitioning more to the southwest. After a mild night, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon with many locations in the south expected to reach the lower 90s. The forecast remains dry until late tomorrow night, as discussed below. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 No major changes were made to the grids. Only a minor change was made to the severe timing for pre-dawn hours early Saturday as the storms could arrive a tad sooner, so we bumped up the start time for severe potential from 3am to 1am. Otherwise, all other thinking is similar. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 A low pressure will deepen and move over the Ohio Valley, with a frontal boundary moving into the area Friday night through Saturday evening. Rain and thunderstorms could move into the northwestern counties after midnight, with activity increasing in coverage by mid morning. As the front sags south, most of the area should see showers and thunderstorms by the early afternoon, continuing through the evening. Instabilities are high, with 3000 J/kg plus forecasted right now, and plenty of shear. Will have to analyze the severe potential as the front gets closer. Uncertainties include how quickly the front makes it into the area and how much convection will occur through the morning ahead of the stronger afternoon storms. Sunday, high pressure develops over the Gulf with flow turning to the west and southwest around this high. A shortwave is expected to move across the southeast states with showers and thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon. Instabilities right now look to be slightly lower than Saturday, though still high, with several thousand J/kg. Any activity should weaken fairly quickly with sunset. Monday and Tuesday, the high pressure should become the dominant feature with most of the area remaining rain free each day. A series of thunderstorms will move around the high, with most of the coverage north of the area. The very far northern fringes of central AL could see isolated to scattered convection each afternoon. By Wednesday, a low pressure will develop over the Plains and move east. A frontal boundary with that low will move across the state. The front should be stronger with the low pressure closer to the state compared to the low moving through the Ohio Valley this weekend. Though the wind field is expected to be widespread and moderate. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 VFR conditions are currently prevailing across all terminals. Similar to the last few nights, MVFR ceilings are expected between 09-15Z. Patchy fog is also possible around MGM closer to sunrise. Otherwise, winds this evening and beginning to weaken. After a stretch of light southerly winds tonight, they will restrengthen out of the south-southwest through the afternoon hours Friday. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... An overall dry trend will be in place through Friday. Slightly drier conditions than this afternoon are expected on Friday ahead of the next system. Minimum RH values will be the 40s north to upper 30s in the south, with 20ft winds around 7 to 10 mph. Rain enters the area Friday night across the north with rain chances continuing through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 88 67 87 / 10 0 50 30 Anniston 68 89 69 86 / 10 0 30 30 Birmingham 70 88 69 86 / 0 0 40 30 Tuscaloosa 70 90 71 88 / 0 0 30 30 Calera 69 89 71 87 / 0 0 20 30 Auburn 68 89 69 86 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 69 92 70 90 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 68 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...95/Castillo