####018004311#### FXUS64 KBRO 170547 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1247 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 New day, similar story...Upper level ridging will maintain hot, near- record breaking temps into this weekend. Gusty conditions today east of I-69C (gusts up to 35 mph observed at BRO) will diminish this evening. Similarly gusty tomorrow, if not a bit less. These south- southeasterly winds allow for temperatures to remain elevated under upper level ridging. High temperatures tomorrow a touch cooler than today. This will raise heat index values tomorrow higher than todays, with maximum apparent temperatures up to 111 possible. NBM has been overforecasting high temperatures and dew points for this regime. Blended high temps with 1:1 NBM and CONSShort, lowering temps by ~a degree. A majority of the CWA tomorrow is under a Major Risk (level 3 of 4) of heat-related illness. Continue to be mindful of heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during peak heating, stay hydrated, and LOOK before you LOCK. Children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles. There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at local beaches through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Oppressively hot temperatures will continue across the region through the period as ridging remains in place over the Gulf through Tuesday. Wednesday a cold front will push into central Texas, possibly getting as far south as the Ranchlands and with more zonal flow aloft and a surface ridge building across the Plains allowing for a slight cool off beginning Wednesday. Heat Advisories will be likely for the first part next week, especially Monday and Tuesday. Heat Risk will generally remain the in Major category (level 3 out of 4), though some pockets of Extreme Level 4 out of 4) are possible through Tuesday. Wednesday much of the area will fall back into a Moderate Heat Risk (level 2 out of 4) and Minor Risk (level 1 out of 4) on Thursday and Friday. While the forecast will remain generally dry, Wednesday evening into the overnight thunderstorms developing off the Sierra Madre could potentials make it to the Rio Grande before dissipating, but chances and confidence remain low at this times. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 MVFR ceilings and moderate southeast winds prevail across much of Deep South Texas early this morning. Ceilings could lower briefly to IFR levels, if winds become lighter than forecast. VFR conditions are expected to return mid to late morning as southeast winds increase to 15 to 20 knots. Some gusts around 25 knots will be possible in the afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease by late evening as MVFR ceilings return. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Tonight through Saturday night... Moderate south-southeast winds and moderate seas will persist throughout the short term. Small Craft should Exercise Caution conditions will be present, even borderline favorable Saturday morning, as winds increase slightly during the overnight hours today and tomorrow. Sunday through Thursday...Slightly adverse marine conditons are expected through much of the period with Exercise Caution expected due to elevated winds. There is a potential for periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions, mainly Monday into early Tuesday due to higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 92 79 92 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 79 97 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 85 79 86 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 78 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...63-KC ####018007217#### FXUS61 KBGM 170547 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 147 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After a generally quiet night, there will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, especially in the afternoon. Expect cooler weather with a few lingering showers Sunday. Drier, mostly sunny yet cool weather is forecast Monday and Tuesday. Another low pressure system looks to bring additional rain chances by middle to latter portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1215 PM Update... Clearing skies have allowed for radiational cooling to drop temperatures slightly lower than originally forecasted. Dew point depressions are beginning to decrease as well. With added moisture from rain today, patchy fog will be possible. It has already developed in some locations east of I-81. There are more clouds coming in from the west, so this could limit fog development. For this update, temperatures were touched up to match the latest observations with most changes being a decrease in the forecast. Lows were also dropped a couple degrees. Patchy fog was added to a large part of the region. In addition, some changes were made to PoPs today based on some of the initial 00z guidance. 935 PM Update... Things are settling down now with loss of afternoon heating; just some scattered showers left near the I-88 corridor. Axis of scattered showers and thunderstorms got going late afternoon through early evening along a boundary; basically a cold frontal segment which then reversed to a warm front in central to west-central Pennsylvania; now lifting north near the PA-NY border in the west. The 1000-1500 J/Kg of mixed layer Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) was adequate for thunderstorms yet generally sub-severe. However, mesoanalysis Downdraft CAPE values were in the many hundreds to near 1000 J/Kg, suggestive of good downdraft mixing potential for any higher cores. One of these did manage to go severe, with a couple downed trees in Hamilton area. There was also a stripe across southern Madison County where 1-2 inches of rain quickly stacked up from training cells; street flooding resulted. A small chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm will exist overnight as the frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. However, generally benign conditions, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Previous discussion... While there is still a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, the overall potential is decreasing and therefore most of our region is now in a "Marginal Risk" for severe thunderstorms, rather than a "Slight Risk." This is due to relatively poor instability and lapse rates. There will be slightly higher lapse rates across our far eastern areas (Catskills-Mohawk Valley), so this is where the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be. That being said, it is looking more likely that most of the severe thunderstorms will be located well north and east of our area, more across New England. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny on Saturday with highs in the lower 70s to near 80. Flow becomes more westerly behind the cold front Saturday night, which will result in some wrap-around/cold air advection showers, mainly across the Finger Lakes Region. Otherwise, it will become much cooler with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update... Unsettled conditions will continue on Sunday with scattered showers as upper level low slowly exits to the northeast. Cool northwest flow on the backside of the low will make for a chilly and blustery day for mid May, with highs on Sunday only in the mid 50s to low 60s. As this system moves east of the region Sunday night, northwest flow will continue to advect cool air southward, however, ridging ridging aloft will also be building in, so the showers will be coming to an end. Lows on Sunday night will be in the low 40s for most of the region and a few of the coldest spots may drop into the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 PM Update... Dry but cool conditions are in store for next week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, and cool northwest flow remains overhead. Temperatures will be below normal throughout the long term period. Winds will remain breezy Monday as with a tight pressure gradient as high pressure builds in. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday morning as temperatures plummet under mostly clear skies and calming winds. Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday as guidance has slowed down the arrival of the next system. Another upper level low will move into the Great Lakes region Wednesday with a surface low developing off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This system will bring widespread rain to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with rain then continuing Thursday. It is interesting that the GFS is showing T850 below 0C Wednesday night and T850 below -2C Thursday night into Friday. Still a long ways out, but most of the models and ensembles are in agreement for another cold upper low for the end of the long term period, so at least expecting above average precipitation and below average temperatures as we head into Memorial Day weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions are expected to be mainly VFR this TAF period. There is a low chance that fog develops early this morning but confidence was too low to add to the TAFs as clouds are beginning to move in from the west which should limit cooling and fog development. There will be multiple rounds of scattered showers today with isolated afternoon thunderstorms also possible. Rain was added to SYR and RME where guidance is consistent on coverage up there. Tempo groups were added to all terminals in the afternoon when confidence is highest, though amendments may be needed for earlier rounds of showers. In addition, showers are expected to be heavy so restrictions will be possible and possibly lower than what is forecasted in the tempo groups. No thunder was added as coverage will be isolated and confidence is too low at this time. Light and variable winds will pick up later this morning. Winds will vary between southwest and west through the day with sustained speeds of 8 to 12 kts and peak gusts around 20 kts. Then tonight, gusts subside and winds settle out of the west- southwest. Outlook... Sunday...Scattered rain showers possible, especially at the Central NY terminals, which may result in occasional restrictions. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Wednesday...Restrictions likely with rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MDP NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL/MDP SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...BTL ####018004653#### FXAK67 PAJK 170548 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 948 PM AKDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... Occluded front and an associated embedded low running up the outer coast will continue pushing inland through Friday afternoon. Southerly flow will persist over the panhandle today with continuing mid level moisture and orographic lift bringing light precipitation. This will continue to decrease Friday night into Saturday, with winds continuing to slacken in that timeframe as well. For more information see the Marine discussion. While precipitation will continue a downward trend, cloud cover will stick around, with parts of the southern panhandle likely to see some patchy fog due to continued saturation and drop in surface winds. Overall a damp and cool weekend ahead, with the northern panhandle getting the best chance for warmer afternoon highs if cloud cover thins out soon enough. .LONG TERM... Continuing form the short term, confidence continues for decreasing cloud cover and weak outflow developing Sunday night into Monday for the northern panhandle as a near gale force low approaches the southern panhandle. This feature is expected to stall SW of Prince of Wales Island, leading to persistent showers with heaviest rain rates expected Monday morning. Some model differences remain in the track of the low, which could lead to more of the panhandle receiving light rain. Overall as this low is expected to dissipate, the overall flow will shift onshore, with light showers and breaks continuing into mid to late next week. For the northern panhandle, clearing skies and developing weak outflow with downsloping winds will lead to warmer daytime highs to start the week. && .AVIATION../through 06z Saturday/... Mixed bag of flight categories across the area this evening with persistent moist southerly flow and rain overspreading over the panhandle TAF sites as a weakening low in the northern gulf shifts westward towards Prince William Sound. Sustained winds should remain around 10kts or less, going near calm and variable for much of the panhandle through Friday night. However, can't rule out isolated gusts up to 20kts for the usual suspects like Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway through 12z. With saturated low levels and decreasing winds, anticipating predominate MVFR to IFR flight categories to continue or develop through tonight, driven by widespread CIGS AoB 2500ft and intermittent reduced vsbys down to 3 to 5SM. Precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage through mid morning Saturday and into the afternoon as surface ridging shifts overhead, with MVFR to low-end VFR flight conditions prevailing after 00z. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Outside: Friday afternoon satellite derived winds highlighted the SE fresh to strong breezes weakening as W-SW winds of moderate to fresh breezes moves in along our coast. Buoy 84 wave spectrum indicated swell domination, focused at 6 to 8ft near 11s from the SW, with seas less than 4ft out of the SE. Expect WSW swell to continue over the next 24 hours with significant heights near 5 to 7ft. Main threat for westerly fresh breezes is for mariners operating along Chatham/Sumner ocean entrances and west coast of Prince of Wales into Dixon Entrance. A gale force low center will be located off the coast of Haida Gwaii late Sunday increasing ESE winds to near-gale force for our coastal waters in the southern Panhandle. There is growing confidence for gale force southerly winds in Hecate Strait Monday which would drive fresh seas of 9 to 12ft into far southern Clarence Strait. Inside: Chatham Strait and Stephens Passage is currently seeing a surge of southerly winds reaching near 15 knots. The afternoon forecast package has delayed this surge into Lynn Canal a few hours, with this push of elevated southerly winds likely overnight. By Saturday morning winds across most of the area will be light with some low clouds and light rain; however, things should clear up a bit in the afternoon. Main threat for southerly moderate breezes Saturday will be northern Lynn Canal. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-663-664. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...NM MARINE...AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau