####018005588#### FXUS63 KARX 152330 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 630 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather possible through 8 PM tonight. Large hail (possibly in the excess of 2.5" in diameter), tornadoes, and damaging winds (60-70 mph wind gusts) are all possible. - 35 to 50 mph wind gusts (60-90% probability of wind gusts of 45 mph or greater west of the Mississippi River) on Friday. A Wind Advisory will be likely needed west of the Mississippi River. && .UPDATE... Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Strong subsidence and steep 1000-700 mb lapse rates will continue to mix strong southwest winds to the surface. Sustained winds will range from 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph. These winds have been picking up dust from recently plowed farm fields and lowering visibilities to 2 miles or less at times. Due to these winds and dust, extended the wind advisory to 10 PM tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This afternoon and early evening At 2 PM, a cold front was located near Interstate 35 and warm front was located near Interstate 94. There was an occluded front that extends northwest back to a low pressure area near the Intersection of North Dakota/South Dakota/west-central Minnesota. In the warm sector of this system the MVFR deck of clouds is starting to break-up. Temperatures have warmed into the lower and mid-80s and dew points are in the lower to mid-60s. This is resulting in surface-based CAPES of 2500-3500 J/kg. 900-600 mb lapse rates are near 9 C/km. Effective shear remain in the 40 to 45 knot shear, so we have ample shear for supercell development. The SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows that CIN has eroded across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, and it will dissipate across the remainder of the area by 3 PM. Still see a variety of run to run solutions on when the storms will start to form. For example the HRRR was showing the initial development over west-central Wisconsin earlier this morning. It has now trended west over east-central and southeast Minnesota. We are starting to see some thunderstorm development west of the Twin Cities and south-central Minnesota just west of Interstate 35. Soundings west of the Mississippi River are a bit less favorable for very large hail than those over west-central and central Wisconsin where the NCAPEs are much greater. Hail will likely occur between a half hour to hour after supercell development. There could potentially be some isolated reports of hail greater than 2.5" in diameter in Wisconsin. The better 0-1 km helicity look to be from east-central Minnesota southeast through west-central, central, and southeast Wisconsin. These areas have a higher tornado potential. As a result, a Tornado Watch has been issued until 8 PM for part of this area. Particularly concerned about central Wisconsin where the supercells will have time to mature and where there discrete, southern supercells will have the better potential to ingest unimpeded instability and low-level helicity. This area would have the potential of stronger tornadoes. With DCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg, dry air aloft, and 40-50 knot winds between 800 and 600 mb, there will be the potential for damaging winds. Currently thinking that these winds will be in the 60 to 70 mph range. Friday into Saturday A closed low will be move slowly east from Minnesota into the Great Lakes. As shortwaves rotate around this low, there will be periodic showers. There may be even some thunderstorms on Friday afternoon as the mean surface CAPES climb up to 1000 J/kg. Rainfall totals will range from a tenth to a half inch. The highest rain totals will be mainly north of Interstate 90. From late Friday morning into Friday evening, the soundings show steep surface to 800 mb (lapse rates around 8 C/km). Soundings suggest wind gusts will be in the 35 to 50 mph. The LREF has a probability of 60-90% that the wind gusts will be 45 mph or greater during the afternoon. A Wind Advisory will be likely needed west of the Mississippi River. Monday through Wednesday A low pressure area will move slowly east from the Central Plains into the Ohio River Valley. North of this low there is a high pressure system. Still plenty of uncertainty on the northern edge of this rainfall. This is especially the case on Monday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Strong subsidence and steep 1000-700 mb lapse rates will continue to mix strong southwest winds to the surface. Sustained winds will range from 25 to 35 knots with gusts to 50 knots. These winds have been picking up dust from recently plowed farm fields and lowering visibilities to 2 miles or less at times. As diurnal mixing occurs on Friday, the sustained southwest winds will range from 20 to 30 knots and gust from 30 to 45 knots during the late morning and afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Boyne ####018006121#### FXUS61 KGYX 152330 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 730 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak pattern with low pressure offshore will support humid conditions and hit and miss showers this evening and again Friday afternoon and evening. through Friday. Unsettled weather continues for the weekend as a more robust system brings widespread showers and thunderstorm chances by Saturday Night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Previous discussion...Clouds have steadily lifted north capping temps for southern counties particularly where seabreeze has kicked in. With moisture pooling we are seeing hit/miss showers with instability sufficient enough to support a few bolts of lightning. Once daytime heating ends all shower activity will cease. Another weak upper ridge moves over the area, leading to a lull in activity and more stable conditions overnight. As a result, expect stratus and areas of fog to develop after dark, particularly near the coast. Visibilities could drop to 1/2 mile or less at times, so locally dense possible. Fog will be less impactful inland, but will expect some reduction in visibilities. Clouds and humidity levels will keep lows in the 50s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Stratus/fog will dissipate through morning, though clouds are likely to linger longer near the coast while breaking inland by late morning. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s and a bit muggy. With the area remaining moist and warm in the wake of a warm front passage, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible late afternoon and evening as that weak upper ridge and its associated subsidence depart to the east. The progression of the warm front could serve as a focus for convective initiation, and any storms that do form could produce locally heavy rainfall. Forcing overall looks modest with ridging not far away no notable shear. Thinking it will be just unsettled with scattered to widespread showers, primarily in the afternoon with a few thunderstorms mixed. PWATs have increased to around 1.25-1.5" with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, supporting some good rain makers and if movement is slow there could be some spotty accumulations around 1". Showers diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating Friday Night, but still cannot rule out some light showers through the night. Mild pattern continues with low to mid 60s for lows. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Points: -Rainy weekend ahead, with most consistent rainfall expected from heavy showers Saturday afternoon. -Showery conditions on Sunday with widespread light rain north of the mountains. -Showery weather wraps up Monday evening, with a drier Tuesday/Wednesday. -Unsettled weather returns for the end of next week. Details: An upper-level low moves across New England on Saturday. A dying surface low looks to bring a couple rounds of showers across northern New England on Saturday. The first round exits the region Saturday morning, with showers generally pretty spotty in nature as the associated occluded front falls apart. As the low moves closer, another round of showers associated with a stronger occluded front develop to the west, moving into New Hampshire by the afternoon. These showers are more organized, and may move across NH and ME quickly. Guidance is still a bit uncertain on the timing, with the ECMWF indicating an earlier arrival and the NAM suggesting showers arrive later on in the evening. Areas that see repeat activity could accumulate 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the majority of the region will see amounts around an inch. Flooding is not expected at this time. Sunday, the center of the low moves across northern NH and ME, allowing for more light rain Sunday with some showers also making down to the rest of NH and Maine. The low may hover over NH and ME for a while, continuing the showers possibly through Monday evening. Conditions should dry out at least a little by Tuesday as the aforementioned low moves off into the Atlantic. The end of the week may feature unsettled weather as another upper-level low moves in from the southwest. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Hit/miss showers this evening expected to skirt most airports but given their spotty coverage they are not likely to cause impacts at terminals. Coverage will drop off after dark when a stratus/fog deck builds in overnight. IFR to LIFR conditions likely at most terminals, with dense fog at RKD and near 1/2sm conditions at nearby airports. Long term...Restrictions may be down during showers, a few thunderstorms and rain that will be moving through the area Saturday through Monday. At this time, the best chances to see reduced restrictions look to arrive Saturday evening as a front moves across the NH and ME. && .MARINE... Short Term...Latest obs show SE winds 5 kt with seas >2 ft this afternoon. Light winds expected through tonight, supportive of more fog. Similar pattern expected Fri, SE 5 kt early increasing to S at 10 kt. Fog conditions likely to linger under humid conditions into Friday night. Long Term...Southeasterly flow at 8-14kts expected on Saturday. A low moves across the area, shifting winds to the southwest at 7-10kts by Sunday. As the low continues to move out to sea, winds shift to northwesterlies at 11-17kts by Monday, with winds staying there through Wednesday morning. Seas of 2-4ft are expected Saturday through Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro SHORT TERM...Jamison LONG TERM...Palmer ####018005378#### FXUS62 KMLB 152330 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 730 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 907 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 - No rain in the forecast for the next 7 days. - Increasingly hot conditions forecast for East Central Florida this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s and near record high temperatures. - Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-105 this weekend into early next week. A Moderate HeatRisk will affect individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Current-Fri...A mid-level ridge over the western Gulf will continue to build slowly eastward toward the south-central Gulf. Surface high pressure ridging will take up residency across the south-central FL peninsula. Light/variable morning winds will transition to light SSW/SW (5-10 mph) across the interior and onshore at the coast (late morning/early afternoon) with ECSB formation and slow march inland. Mainly dry conditions as the warming trend continues with afternoon max temps in the near 90F/L90s at the coast (Fri) and M90s into the interior. Heat indices will also be on the climb with peak afternoon values Fri in the M-U90s (perhaps 100F in a few spots across the interior). Overnight lows generally well into the 60s to L70s. Some late night patchy fog may develop north/west of the I-4 corridor into early Fri morning. Sat-Thu...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified... The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with potential for one or more record highs to be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach will approach their record highs on Fri and Sat (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to gradually creep up reaching 100 to 105 early next week. Widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and heat indices are not unusual for our summertime, they are well above normal for mid May and folks are not at all acclimated to it. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. The next (small) chance for measurable rainfall may not be until Thursday or Friday of next week, with approach/passage of a weak front, though confidence remains low this far out. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Previous Slightly Modified...High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing to around 10 knots near the coast with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore through Sat then 1-2 FT all waters Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation continue to be very low during this period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions will largely continue tonight into Friday. There is a low potential for patchy fog development late tonight, which may lead to tempo IFR/MVFR conditions from around 9-13Z. However, not enough confidence to include mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds will be mostly light and variable overnight, becoming W/SW around 5-7 knots in the morning. Along the coast winds will then become E/SE around 10-14 knots behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze, with earlier development from KMLB southward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Previous Slightly Modified...Soils will quickly dry out next several days with no rain in the forecast and temperatures climbing into the low and mid 90s. Peak heat indices from Fri-Mon will approach U90s to L-M100s. Drier air mixing down to the surface will produce min RH values at or below critical values (35 percent) over the interior especially Friday and Saturday. But winds will be light (10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 70 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 70 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 69 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 69 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 72 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Weitlich ####018006273#### FXUS64 KMAF 152330 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 630 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - High winds are possible, mainly in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, as soon as Saturday afternoon. These winds could last intermittently through Tuesday afternoon. - Severe thunderstorms are possible late Saturday afternoon and night over the Western Low Rolling Plains, southeast Permian Basin, and lower Trans Pecos. - At least elevated fire weather conditions are possible through next week, mainly in areas along and west of the Pecos. Increasing winds beginning Saturday may result in critical fire weather conditions in these areas, especially Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A weak cold front swept into our area earlier this morning, resulting in highs about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. However, westerly and southwesterly winds return this afternoon and subtle ridging begins to move in within the upper levels. Lows tonight settle into the 50s over portions of southeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, and the higher elevation in Texas. 60s are expected for most, while those near the Rio Grande hover in the 70s. Friday, hotter temperatures begin to make a comeback as an upper ridge progresses over our area. Highs in the 90s become more common and triple digit heat expands in coverage in our southern counties. Although, lee troughing brings another weak cold front in the morning into southeastern New Mexico, keeping highs in the 80s. Friday night sees lows mainly in the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Saturday, an upper trough is forecast to reside over Baja, while a secondary, stronger trough will be making landfall on the west coast in NoCal. As this secondary trough digs southeast, leeside troughing on the Front Range will begin increasing southwesterly flow out west, w/the NAM developing a marginal mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes during the afternoon. Winds look right on the fence for warning criteria and, being the 4th period, we'll hold off on a watch for now, saving our powder for Sunday. BLDU looks possible either way, however. Even so, these increased winds will add a downslope warming component to already-increasing thicknesses, with afternoon highs topping out ~ 5-7 F above climatology. These winds will also sharpen up a dryline on the eastern fringes of the CWA. If convection initiates on this feature before it is shunted east, deep layer shear looks sufficient for a few cells to go severe. Sunday, the trough begins tilting negatively, w/the mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes. This looks to be the beginning of a long-fused high wind event in the mountains that could last until Tuesday, when the trough clears West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Soils continue to dry out, so BLDU is a given. Increased downslope winds may add a degree or so to Saturday's highs, making Sunday the warmest day this forecast. This could be a critical fire weather day, as well. See Fire Weather Discussion below for further details. A dryline will reside on the eastern periphery of the CWA, maintaining a slight chance of convection there. Monday, the trough arrives at the Four Corners by early afternoon, and a Pac front pushes through late. This will start a downtrend in thicknesses, and shave maybe a degree off Sunday's highs. Tuesday, the trough finally moves through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, dropping a cold front in behind it late. This will be the coolest day of this forecast, as highs struggle up to right around normal. Wednesday/Thursday look uneventful, with temperatures recovering slightly under zonal flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cannot out rule out BLDU at CNM reducing VIS briefly to 5SM but the duration is too short and confidence too low to include in the TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Despite recent rains, NASA SPoRT moisture products suggest soils are drying out very quickly, and any benefits from the past couple of weeks is quickly diminishing. As a result, single-digit relative humidity is forecast for most of the area through at least next Wednesday, coinciding with poor recovery each night. At least elevated fire weather conditions will be possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos. Concerns begin to increase beginning Saturday as 20-ft winds begin increasing w/the approach of the next upper trough. This activity could peak Sunday afternoon as high temperatures/low RH tag-team with increased 20-ft winds to yield extreme RFTI (7-8) over most of the area along/west of the Pecos. However, the trough has slowed slightly in the past 24 hours, and Monday now looks almost as critical as Sunday. ERCs continue to increase, and by Sunday, most of the area west of the Pecos should be in the 75th percentile or higher. Stay tuned... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 63 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 58 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 67 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 58 81 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 56 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 64 93 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 63 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 60 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...10 ####018006703#### FXUS62 KFFC 152331 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 731 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 409 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Key Messages: - Above normal high temps for Friday and Saturday lead to near record highs for KATL. - Dry conditions through Friday with rain chances increasing overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Discussion: Ridging is solidly in place over the southeast with sfc high pressure extending from the Gulf into the southeast. This is allowing cloud cover to taper off for the most part across the state of Georgia except for high level cirrus as there is a lack of moisture in place for today. PWATs are at 0.89" as of he morning sounding which is below the median for this time of year. This along with a large area of dry air in the mid levels is also indicative of the high pressure in place. With this high pressure pushing into tomorrow as well ahead of our next system, temps will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area with ATL nearing a record high temp. Current forecasted temp is 90 and the record is 91. Other sites have record highs closer to the mid 90s so shouldn't see any of those areas in danger of breaking a record. Tomorrow morning, should see an area of low clouds push in from the southwest which ultimately should stay closer to Columbus. For the remainder of tomorrow expecting dry conditions with only high level cirrus over the area. The transition period from Friday overnight into Saturday morning is when the next batch of weather will push into the area. An upper level low will push into the great lakes region while an attached cold front pushes into north Georgia by late Friday night. Into early Saturday morning precip chances increase to 60-70% where the front begins pushing in to the area. First runs of the CAMs came in at 12z showing a line of showers and thunderstorms pushing in during this time. SPC has outlined our area in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for this time frame but would not be surprised to see an upgrade into Saturday. Overall with the shear and CAPE values in play overnight the severe risk is there but with the timing being overnight, the severe risk will likely not be as high as if it were in the afternoon. This continues into Saturday during the day which the long term goes into below. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 409 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Key Messages: - Warm to hot. Highs on many days in long term will be in upper 80s to lower 90s, depending on cloud cover and other factors. - Small chance of severe weather on Saturday currently. Conditional threat. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) in place, damaging winds primary concern). Forecast: Saturday morning will see slow moving upper level low to the north of the CWA finally get a kick to the east which will continue to push a front into the CWA during the morning into the afternoon hours. This front is expected to stall over the area as upper level forcing quickly moves away from it. Ahead of this line during the morning hours, CAMs show a line to broken line of convection moving into north Georgia ahead of this front that tends to be dissipating or trending downward across the ensemble suite. The current Marginal Risk on Saturday covers any continued severe convection as this line moves in as well as the potential for some afternoon redevelopment. Redevelopment looks to be very conditional on how quickly that line dissipates and how much cloud cover is in place to limit day time heating. With upper level forcing clearing the area and the front mostly stalling, we may be more dependent on reaching convective temperature in order to get any storms to fire off. If that can happen, some unidirectional shear and instability will be in place to allow for some isolated severe storms. MLCAPE values in many models are above 1500 J/kg and shear of 20-25 kts should be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail threat is likely more limited, but not zero, especially given the bigger instability values. As the larger wave slowly moves east, a quick hitting shortwave traveling within the larger wave guide will move into the area on Sunday, bringing rain chances that may be enhanced by the stalled surface boundary over the area as moisture is re-lifted over the top of it. This looks at this time to be mostly rain with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. Not expecting severe weather, but worth monitoring, especially once the CAMs get a hold of it. It's May, after all. The front that pushes through the area won't bring much in the way of relief from temps as we quickly get another deeper wave that ejecting into the Great Plains on Monday and moves NE. This will bring more moisture and warm temps from the Gulf back into north and central Georgia and keep the near summer like temps in place. Highs on Monday are currently forecast to surge back into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Next shot of rain/storms looks to be the middle of next week as this system approaches the area. Still uncertainty around how this will play out, but this does have a chance to be a bit more potent and will need to be monitored going forward.Lusk && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 A few SCT MVFR cigs are possible this evening as a cloud deck approaches from the NW. Gusty WSW winds at around 10kts should ease after 00Z. Otherwise, quiet conditions are expected through the TAF period. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 91 70 87 / 0 0 10 10 Atlanta 70 90 71 88 / 0 0 10 20 Blairsville 65 85 64 81 / 10 10 60 30 Cartersville 68 90 69 87 / 10 0 40 30 Columbus 68 92 69 89 / 0 0 0 10 Gainesville 70 89 71 86 / 0 10 20 20 Macon 68 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 Rome 69 89 68 87 / 10 0 50 30 Peachtree City 68 91 69 88 / 0 0 10 20 Vidalia 69 94 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...Vaughn ####018010595#### FXUS65 KABQ 152331 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 531 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 - Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low water crossings through this week, especially along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, due to melting snow. - Smoke from the Greer Fire in Arizona could create hazy conditions with lower air quality for portions of southwestern New Mexico. Sensitive groups such as the elderly and those with respiratory conditions will be impacted by the poor air quality. - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather late this weekend and early next week. Winds will be strongest on Sunday and Monday when there will be an increased risk of rapid fire spread. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Breezy to locally windy conditions are present this afternoon across northern and central NM thanks a lagging weak shortwave skirting northern NM. Clear skies reign supreme tonight, aside from where smoke from the Greer Fire in eastern AZ settles into parts of west- central NM. The main areas for this will focus through Catron and western Socorro Counties, and northward into southern portions of Cibola County. Friday sees more pleasant weather with a weak shortwave ridge crossing the state ahead of another weak H5 low over the northern Baja Peninsula. Temperatures near normal with standard afternoon breezes will be the rule. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 The shortwave trough from Baja California will be making its way though the Desert Southwest on Saturday, bringing in a stream of high clouds for southeastern parts of New Mexico. Increased mid- level moisture may also promote some mid and high cloud development for central areas, but model soundings indicate that conditions will still be quite dry, so confidence for virga and sprinkles is still low (<10%). As this shortwave moves through New Mexico, a slot of dry southwesterly air will push into southern and eastern areas, dropping relative humidity values into the single digits and elevating fire weather concerns. Lee side surface troughing develops during the afternoon east of the Sacramento mountains. Along with some stronger flow aloft, conditions look to be breezy to gusty for parts of the Rio Grande Valley and southern highland areas. A deeper trough digging into the Great Basing will usher in much stronger mid and upper level flow into the region for Sunday and Monday. The polar jet will dig south alongside the trough, extending a robust 100 kt upper level jet streak over the northern half of the state. The recent run of models has scaled back a bit on the 700 mb winds for Sunday (40 to 45 kts), but with a strong 987-991 mb surface low deepening over southeastern Colorado, widespread gusty winds are still expected. Current forecast has 30 to 35 kt gusts for central and western areas. Meanwhile, the area of highest confidence for the strongest gusts is in the northeast plains and highlands where 40 to 50 kt gusts may be observed in the afternoon. As the trough axis shifts east, another upper level low will dip south into the Four Corners on Monday. This system will shift winds more WNW and bring in a greater slug of moisture into the region, increasing precipitation chances for western and northern areas. Once again, guidance is not set on the exact track and timing of this system, but precipitation amounts and coverage have trended up for Monday afternoon, with the high terrain along the Colorado border seeing the greatest chances of rain. The back half of the jet max looks to push through as the low moves east, this time with stronger winds a little bit further south. This will lead to more gusty conditions on Monday afternoon, particularly along and east of the southern half of the central mountain chain. A backdoor front will then shift winds NNE on Monday night into Tuesday morning as the system exits into the Great Plains. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal across the state for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures then begin to warm back up and winds settle as pressure heights rise and the upper level pattern turns to a weak zonal flow towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 West breezes taper off this evening around sunset with light and terrain dominated winds overnight. Smoke from the Greer fire in eastern AZ will result in more hazy skies across the west central and southwest mountains and adjacent San Augustin plains, especially around sunrise. Westerly breezes redevelop come late tomorrow morning with gusts of 25 to 30 kts across northeast and east central TAF sites, including KLVS and KTCC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon give way to lesser winds diminishing the fire weather threat Friday. A fire growing pattern begins to return Saturday as southwesterly winds strengthen with low humidity pushing into the southern half of the state. This pattern amplifies Sunday as the main storm system responsible for the stronger winds tracks along the NM/CO border Sunday. Winds veer westerly, strengthening through the day Sunday with widespread critical fire weather conditions forecast. The main inhibiting factor for fire growth will be how receptive finer fuels will be through the eastern plains of NM where recent green-up has been observed. A second storm system quick on the heels of the first brings another dry and windy weather pattern to the southern and eastern halves of the state. Cooler and wetter weather will reach the northwestern and north-central portions of NM Monday. Areas along and west of the Rio Grande Valley dry out and warm up Tuesday, as conditions cool alongside increased humidity through the eastern && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 75 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 70 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 35 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 30 73 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 32 75 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 35 74 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 43 76 48 76 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 37 73 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 32 80 36 78 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 34 83 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 29 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 43 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 42 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 68 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 32 58 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 29 63 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 30 71 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 40 77 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 43 71 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 75 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 83 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 45 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 83 40 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 45 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 83 39 84 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 45 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 83 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 47 77 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 45 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 48 86 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 43 75 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 39 75 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 76 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 71 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 40 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 40 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 47 79 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 73 47 72 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 36 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 36 77 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 37 77 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 40 73 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 45 81 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 41 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 44 87 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 43 83 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 46 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 50 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 85 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 46 87 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 55 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 48 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 48 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...71 ####018004287#### FXUS61 KILN 152332 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 732 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer temperatures will be observed through the end of the week. A series of disturbances will bring the potential for thunderstorms mainly late in the day into tonight and again Friday and Friday night. Cooler temperatures and drier weather will follow heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Mid-level ridge axis centered over the middle Ohio Valley will be shunted to the east late tonight as the first in a series of shortwaves arrives from the upper Midwest. Despite favorable instability and wind shear for thunderstorms, forcing will focused to the north of our CWA. Severe parameters are robust in a few of the latest CAMs. Therefore, will keep PoPs in the chance range (highest in the north and west) while closely monitoring any robust updrafts that can take advantage of the parameter space. If storms develop, all hazards will be possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... After a lull in the active weather Friday morning, a more significant shortwave will approach the region during the afternoon. This time, a warm front will initially be the focus of the forcing, starting across the Tri-State during the evening and lifting through the rest of the CWA just after midnight. Instability across our southern counties will peak around 3000J/kg from late afternoon into the evening, while bulk shear is likely to exceed 50 knots in the evening. Some CAMs show a warm air advection wing lifting northeast with potential discreet supercells. Behind this, it's likely a QLCS will bring the threat of damaging winds and a line- embedded tornadoes late. There is also the possibility that the line could be slowed across the south with west to east training convection bringing the threat of flash flooding. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Closed low will track across the Great Lakes to start the period which will push a cold front through the area. Most likely, this will come through dry, but there could be enough deep forcing to allow for some showers along the northern tier of the forecast area. Ridging will build in for Sunday and Monday resulting in dry conditions with temperatures near or even slightly below normal. The mid level pattern becomes blocky again towards midweek with the usual uncertainties as the flow transitions. At this point, it appears most likely that a closed low will move out of the central Plains and track into the Ohio Valley while getting absorbed into another closed low retrograding across eastern Canada. This will bring another period of wet weather. Highs will remain slightly below normal with lows closer to normal. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Uncertainty remains on storm potential during the overnight hours tonight. While the environment will be fairly unstable, there are questions on overall forcing. Thus, have kept it at a PROB30 mention for now during the 'most likely' window. Some storms could be strong to severe. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue overnight. Confidence is low on any vsby reductions at KLUK tonight given the higher surface winds and increased cloud coverage, so no mention in the tafs for now. On Friday, surface winds increase out of the southwest, with sustained winds of 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Dry conditions are actually favored through majority of the daylight hours in the morning and into the mid afternoon. There is a general consensus that chances for storms begin to increase by the late afternoon / early evening. There may be multiple complexes of storms that move through, especially for our southern terminals. Storms are expected to be strong to severe given the highly unstable environment. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Clark ####018004849#### FXUS63 KGRR 152332 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 732 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Thunderstorms this Evening - Another Round of Strong to Severe Storms Friday Evening - Windy Saturday, Cooler into Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 - Severe Thunderstorms this Evening Tonight between 8pm and 2am a round of thunderstorms is expected to move through the area bringing with it the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. The main source of lift for these storms will be with the occluded front with upper level divergence aloft along with some convergence in the wind fields at 850-700mb. Instability has been gradually building through the day with Mixed Layer CAPE values currently in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across much of the area. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the front in Minnesota and are expected to expand south along the front as it moves east this afternoon and into this evening. 0-1km storm relative helicity values peak ahead of the front in the 100 to 150 m2/s2 range and around 200 m2/s2 from 0-3km. Paired with 30 to 40 knots of effective shear and Most Unstable CAPE values around 2000 J/kg this will be a prime environment for rotating updrafts, hence the increased hail and tornado risk. There is some variability in the storm mode as it heads into western Michigan. Individual storms are expected to develop in Wisconsin and may become clustered or form a line as they move across the lake into western Michigan. If storms take a more linear formation, then winds and quick spin up tornadoes would become the main concern. Any isolated or clustered supercells would be more likely to produce all hazards, especially hail. With the risk for severe storms late this evening, make sure you have a way to receive warnings and a plan in place to take shelter when warnings are issued. - Another Round of Strong Friday Evening Most of Friday will be dry with instability building through the day. Steep lapse rates and ample dry air causing an inverted V in soundings will set the stage for an environment favorable for downbursts. Lift provided by the positive vorticity advection swinging around the 500mb low will move in around 8pm Friday causing showers and thunderstorms to develop. Similar to Thursday evening storms taper off shortly after midnight. - Windy Saturday, Cooler into Next Week The same low mentioned in the previous section will gradually track across the northern Great Lakes Saturday. Lingering showers associated with the low should clear early Saturday afternoon, but as the rain and lower clouds clear, gusty westerly winds will develop. Some gusts to 40 mph are possible during the afternoon. Calmer conditions move in for the remainder of the weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 The forecast remains on track for storms currently over Wisconsin and Illinois to move into the area between 0-5Z this evening from west to east. Storms will be capable of damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes. Heavy rain with the storms could also reduce visibilities down to 1 to 2 SM and ceilings to fall to MVFR values. Southwest winds could be gusty as storms exit with gusts around 35 knots. Low level wind shear will also be present as the front and storms move through with a break in the winds and low level wind shear late tonight into Friday morning. Breezy southwest winds develop once more for Friday with gusts around 25 knots. Another round of rain and thunderstorms looks to move in Friday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 A round of thunderstorms is expected between 8 and 10pm with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and waterspouts. Rough water is expected with this round of storms with southwest winds moving in behind the line. A second round of storms moves in Friday night with the potential for storms to be strong with gusty winds being the primary concern. The low pressure system responsible for these rounds of storms will move through the northern Great Lakes Saturday bringing with it a tight pressure gradient and gusty Westerly winds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Friday through Saturday evening due to winds and high waves. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...RAH MARINE...RAH ####018004793#### FXUS64 KLIX 152333 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 633 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The main change in thinking from yesterday is the removal of any convective risk for Saturday. Although a frontal boundary is still expected to drift toward the region, it now looks like the front will stall and dissipate well north of the area. With the low level forcing mechanism stalled to the north, and a strong mid- level capping inversion in place, any development will be very isolated. Probability of convective development is at most around 10 percent Saturday afternoon, and thus is not included in the forecast package. However, if a storm does punch through the capping inversion, it could produce some gusty winds. The end result will be continued warm and muggy conditions through Saturday night. Highs will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s each day with the warmest readings further inland away from any coastal influences. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s, and overnight lows will dip toward those dewpoints each night. Additionally, skies will turn mostly cloudy each night as the elevated inversion strengthens with the cooling overnight lows. These clouds will generally start forming after midnight and scatter out to a mostly sunny sky by the late morning hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Sunday through Tuesday will be a persistence forecast as deep layer ridging dominates the Gulf South. Deep layer subsidence will keep temperatures warmer than average with highs climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s each day and lows only dipping into the low to mid 70s. This subsidence and warming aloft will also keep the strong mid-level capping inversion in place, and this will keep convective chances near zero through Tuesday afternoon. The overnight cloud development will continue to occur as the inversion strengthens each night, but mostly sunny conditions will be the rule by the late morning and afternoon hours each day. Wednesday will see a slight change in the pattern take hold as a potent northern stream trough axis and associated cold front sweep through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This fast moving feature will break down the persistent ridge and allow for the mid-level capping inversion to weaken. The combination of increased deep layer forcing, more favorable mid-level lapse rates, and ample warmth and available moisture will support the development of scattered convection during the day on Wednesday. At this time, the convection looks to remain below severe limits with some locally gusty winds and brief heavy downpours being the main threats. Temperatures will remain above average in advance of the front with highs warming back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. However, in the wake of the front Wednesday night, slightly cooler and drier will advect into the region allowing lows to dip into the 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Current VFR conditions across the area should remain in place through around 06Z. The same conditions as last night are expected to repeat with a temperature inversion bringing a MVFR stratus layer driving ceilings to 1000 to 2000 feet from 06Z through 14 to 15Z. After 15Z boundary layer mixing will allow the low stratus to lift and scatter returning conditions to VFR. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A gradually weakening pressure gradient across the coastal waters will keep winds slightly lower tonight than those observed last night. As a result, no small craft advisories are in place, but small craft exercise caution wording will be added to the forecast for the waters west of Port Fourchon. This will be the final night of stronger winds as the surface high over the eastern Gulf turns more dominant this weekend into early next week. The end result will be a persistent southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots from tomorrow through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 74 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 73 90 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 75 89 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 74 85 75 86 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 73 85 74 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...DS MARINE...PG ####018007217#### FXUS65 KBYZ 152333 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 533 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very windy along MT/DK border into Friday. Peak wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, strongest over the higher hills of far eastern Montana. - Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week. In far eastern Montana, band of moderate rainfall is forecast overnight into Friday. Across the rest of the region, isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers are expected each day. - Another high impact precipitation event over the region is anticipated for the start of next week. - Risk of localized heavy rain and associated flooding late Sunday into Monday, mainly around the Big Horns region. && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday Night... Strong low pressure system over the Dakotas will continue to influence our eastern CWA through Friday morning. Winds will increase tonight over the MT/Dk border area with gusts 45-55 mph expected, possibly a little higher, thanks to a tightening pressure gradient associated with a deepening surface low over the eastern portion of the Dakotas. However, with upper vertical motion over the area, we think winds will remain under our high wind hi-light criteria. The trough axis will swing around through eastern Montana as well tonight bringing rainfall across our eastern border counties. So a wet/windy ride for our eastern border tonight into early Friday. In the meantime, numerous convective showers will prevail across our west and southern sections through this afternoon, winding down after sunset as instability wanes. Some rumbles of thunder are possible, but CAPE is generally low (100-300 J/kg), so strong thunderstorms are not anticipated. A weak flat upper ridge builds in from the west on Friday as the Dakota upper low slowly slides east. So look for lingering light rain along the eastern border Friday to decrease. Pacific moisture in the westerly mid level flow will move into our west and bring an increasing chance of showers (iso/sct) and isolated thunder by late Friday, especially across our SW mountains (Beartooths/Absarokas). As mid level winds back ot the SW Friday night and 500 mb heights rise a bit, precipitation should die off. Saturday/Saturday night...Split upper trough (northern branch over British Columbia coast, southern branch into Nevada) will develop to our west with southwest flow bringing some moisture and perturbations back across our western CWA with some isolated showers spreading east as well Saturday night. Again, some thunder is possible, but CAPE remains under 500 J/kg and forcing is weak, so no strong thunderstorms are anticipated. Look for overnight lows to generally range from upper 30s to mid 40s the next few nights. We may approach the freezing mark along portions of Fallon and Carter Counties Friday night where a brief light frost cannot be ruled out locally (25% chance of dipping below 32F). Daytime highs will be in the 60s at most locations Friday with some 50s still near the Dakota border. Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s to near 70 degrees. As for impact precipitation...At this time, the forecast for Baker, MT has around an additional 0.70 inches of rain for Baker through Friday morning, but there is still a 25 percent chance that they could see over an inch of rain from this whole event. Luckily, soils are drier in this region at this time, so any rain that falls should not be to much of a problem, even if the high end amounts occur. BT Sunday through Wednesday... Ensembles show the next low moving into the Pacific NW coast early Sunday. Low level easterly flow will aid in beneficial precipitation for the region through Monday night. Uncertainty still remains of the exact track of the low and exact precip amounts. There is a 40-60% chance of at least an inch of precip across the region. With instability present Sunday evening, a few thunderstorms are possible with heavy rainfall being a concern given above average atmospheric moisture and low level easterly flow. Heavy rainfall potential will also lead to concern for continued rises on small streams especially with the recent precip. As for mountain snowfall, snow levels will begin around 8-9,000 ft Sunday evening, dropping to around 7,000 ft Monday morning. There is about a 30-40% chance of at least a foot of snowfall in the Beartooth/Absarokas Sunday through Monday night. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient over eastern MT Sunday will allow for breezy winds over SE MT. Some ensembles are depicting lower heights with some energy moving to the north of us late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing low to moderate precip chances. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s Sunday, cooling to the 50s for Monday with 50s/60s for the remainder of the period. TS && .AVIATION... 00z TAF Discussion...Flight conditions will be primarily VFR across the area tonight into Friday. However, portions of SE Montana including, KBHK and KMLS, will see MVFR to occasional IFR conditions at times as a disturbance in the Dakotas continues to back into these areas. Scattered showers further west across central and western areas will diminish significantly as the sun sets, though isolated patches of convection can't be ruled out through the night. Local MVFR conditions can be expected near any shower activity. In the early morning hours patchy stratus/fog can't be ruled out in the western foothills. Elsewhere, northwest winds should limit fog/low stratus potential with many areas seeing gusts in the 20 to 35kt range tonight into tomorrow. Low level wind shear is possible where surface inversions get strong enough, mainly in low lying locations though did add a mention for KBIL. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 044/063 044/067 048/065 045/053 043/063 044/067 045/072 31/B 34/T 28/W 98/W 55/W 54/T 23/W LVM 038/061 039/064 044/056 038/053 039/062 039/066 040/069 31/B 44/T 5+/W 97/W 45/W 54/T 23/T HDN 044/063 043/068 049/070 045/053 042/062 042/067 043/073 32/W 23/W 28/W 99/W 66/W 54/T 33/W MLS 047/062 040/067 047/065 043/052 042/059 042/067 044/072 66/W 12/W 36/W 99/W 75/W 44/W 32/W 4BQ 045/058 039/066 046/066 043/050 042/056 042/064 043/070 54/W 21/B 36/W 99/W 75/W 44/W 22/W BHK 038/054 033/063 039/056 038/051 038/058 039/064 040/069 88/W 20/B 35/W 89/W 75/W 33/W 32/W SHR 040/060 038/067 044/069 040/050 038/058 037/064 038/071 32/W 23/T 28/W 99/W 66/W 55/T 23/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings ####018007990#### FXUS61 KRLX 152333 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 733 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts north of the area this today bringing much warmer weather, along with several rounds of severe weather through Friday night, some of which could be significant. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 715 PM Thursday... No significant changes made to the forecast other than taking out mention of showers and storms for this evening as things should stay very quiet. Tweaked PoPs for the overnight into Friday morning to add in newer guidance which equated to minimal changes to the forecast. The bulk of the forecast remains on track. As of 310 PM Thursday... Key Points: * Warm front lifts north of the area this afternoon/evening * Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms possible, with the greatest concern being late tonight into Friday morning, but especially late Friday afternoon into Friday night An active near term period is expected with multiple rounds of showers/storms possible. At present, a surface warm front is lifting north across the central CWA, and will continue to traverse the rest of the forecast area over the next few hours, resulting in a warm afternoon, with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s across the lowlands. Additionally, isolated showers/storms are possible through this afternoon/evening. While instability will be on the higher end (2,000-2,500 J/kg mixed-layer) following the passage of the front, forcing will be quite weak (differential heating/topographic effects) amid a noted cap. Activity has been quite muted this afternoon, but the potential for a strong to severe thunderstorm or two remains possible if storms are able to initiate despite the capping. The main hazards w/ convection today would be wind/hail. The overnight will begin on the quiet side with mainly dry conditions expected across the forecast area. While not anticipated to be nearly as widespread as last night, some patchy mountain valley fog is expected to develop given weaker boundary layer flow further south/east. Another round of showers/storms then approaches the region later tonight from the north/west in association with convection further west that has yet to initiate. Current thinking is that by the time this activity reaches the forecast area, it should be mainly elevated in nature and in a weakening trend, although the potential for some strong to isolated severe storms does remains possible, with wind/hail being the primary hazards, with the greatest risk across northwest portions of the CWA. This activity should exit the eastern portion of the forecast area by mid/late Friday morning. Lows tonight will be in the 60s across much of the forecast area. Friday will be another warm day across the region with highs progged for the low 80s across the lowlands, with 70s in the mountains. A period of mainly dry weather is progged for the late morning and afternoon, with another round of thunderstorms expected beginning sometime in the late afternoon or early evening in the form of a MCS. Some timing/location uncertainty does still exist, but confidence is increasing in this feature moving across the CWA late afternoon into Friday night. Given such, SPC has upgraded much of the forecast area into a Enhanced Risk for late Friday into Friday night. The main hazard will be strong to significant damaging winds, but large hail and isolated embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially given any discrete convection. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Key Points: * Ongoing outbreak of severe weather Friday night that could pose concerns for all hazards * A succession of cold fronts will bring precipitation and severe weather to a close on Saturday * Dry weather to round out the weekend The forecast period opens up in the midst of severe weather brought forth by a bowing segment first originating in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday afternoon. Ongoing uncertainty with this evolving system will dictate the severity factor Friday night, but as of this issuance, strong wording for damaging wind gusts and large hail were included through midnight Friday night. The risk for tornadoes and heavy downpours will also be probable in activity. The low pressure system orchestrating this severe weather will be progressing through the Great Lakes region at the start of the weekend, and will drive a cold front through the forecast area on Saturday. This will bring precipitation to a gradual end and will push the severe risk into the eastern seaboard on Saturday. A reinforcing cold front will yield dry weather to round out the weekend in addition to cooling temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... The start of the work week grows more active as shortwave energy rounding an upper level ridge ventures into the area starting late Monday. Guidance then enters into a realm of various solutions for next week, but all point towards a more active state as the ridge breaks down and low pressure blankets the area with showers and more potential for thunderstorms. Seasonable temperatures round out the extended period, with daytime highs ranging in the 60s and 70s, then toppling down into the 40s and 50s during the overnight periods. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 730 PM Thursday... Cloud coverage will increase through this period and lower in heights to where by Friday morning CIGs will likely be MVFR across the northern sites. The southern sites will remain in VFR conditions during this period, expect for any thunderstorm activity that may occur which has potential during the late morning on Friday. Any shower activity may decrease VIS to MVFR or worse temporarily, however due to lack in confidence of timing left mention out of the TAFs. Winds will stay out of the southwest increasing in intensity by late morning to where gusts in the lower 20s is possible at all sites by the early afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be more thunderstorm activity with the passing disturbance Friday morning across the northern sites and all sites by the late afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible under convection Friday evening and Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/GW NEAR TERM...JZ/GW SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JZ ####018006050#### FXUS63 KEAX 152334 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 634 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Largely seasonal to near-seasonal temperatures through the forecast, from the 70s to mid 80s. * Best rain and storm chances from Sunday through first half of the next week. - Increasing confidence in strong/severe, best chances currently appear as Monday/Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Comfort level today, thus far, has depended on which side of the dry line/cool front you resided. By early-mid morning, areas near/along the KS/MO border felt the relief, while areas around Kirksville and Moberly are just (as of 18z) seeing humidity fall and air temperature ease a couple degrees. Concurrent with the boundary/frontal passage has been dust from agricultural activity and generally dry conditions to the west of the region in KS/OK. Fortunately winds, while breezy, were not of significant enough strength to really produce reduced visibilities. A few sites did fall toward 4 to 6 miles, but generally briefly and has only been sporadic at sites east of the KC Metro. Degraded air quality, most significant for sensitive populations, will/has been the main consequence. Otherwise, very pleasant mid-May conditions as temperatures top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. For Friday, any storm opportunities within the forecast area will be dependent on a race between northward moisture transport on the backside of a Lower Mississippi Valley surface high and a secondary cold front wrapping around parent surface low over the Dakotas into Minnesota. Majority of guidance continues to keep the bulk of activity just outside of the forecast area and primarily into jurisdictions of SGF/LSX and eastward. Should warm front/moisture transport succeed in getting into the S/SE forecast area, there would be a risk for strong/severe storms, but quite limited in time frame with approaching cold front. With no significant trend northward, have kept PoPs just out of the CWA for the most part with prevailing expectation for bulk activity to be closer to I-44 and eastward. Towards N/NW Missouri, another windy day with westerly wind gusts up into the 30s mph possible. Weekend then starts out quite pleasant with increasing surface high influence, pleasant temperatures (70s/low 80s), and low humidity. By Sunday, large scale pattern shifts towards a much more active stance, at least as far as the central/southern Plains is concerned. Western CONUS trough digs into the desert SW and begins to kick out and taking on a somewhat negative tilt. There remains some variance in this progression, but largely depicts a secondary piece of energy riding through the flow, and effectively enacting a Fujiwara effect within the western trough. This slows its eastward progression such that strong/severe storm opportunities may be realized around or within the area from Sunday evening/night through Tuesday night. While nitty gritty details continue to come into focus, confidence in strong/severe potential grows with deterministic and ensemble depictions coming into better agreement. Purely going by conceptual model, there is little doubt in rounds of strong/severe weather potential/activity within the larger area (KS/MO/OK/AR) from Sunday thru Tuesday with the negative wave tilt, strong WAA and moisture return, supportive wind profiles, Lee Cyclogenesis, etc. This too is strongly bolstered by the various AI, Machine Learning, and analogue tools/guidance strongly highlighting Days 4-6 (Sun-Tue). SPC highlights much of this period with Days 4/5/6 15%. Do tend to agree with guidance that Monday/Monday evening appears to be the current best opportunity for strong/severe within the immediate area as a surface low is projected to slide across N Kansas/SE Nebraska, placing area within warm sector and in vicinity of both warm front and dry line. All modes would potentially be in play. Sunday evening/overnight is not necessarily out of the question either as genesis area over KS/OK expected to grow into a progressive MCS, but likely weakening given more likely evening/overnight time frame. Of note too will be the potential for a hydrologic threat given possible/likely multiple rounds of convective precipitation over this time frame (Sun-Tue) or longer. Euro/GFS ensembles largely depict 2" to 4" over this time frame, but inevitably with convection more localized greater amounts could be expected. While WPC ERO does have a Day 4 Slight (Sunday/Sunday night) with first wave of convection/MCS, do tend to think the threat tends to be greater come Monday/Tuesday with the subsequent opportunities, of which WPC too does have a Slight risk within the area for Day 5/Monday. A lot to watch and digest over the coming days with regards to severe and hydro threats. By Tuesday onward, western trough kicks out into the Plains and synoptic guidance tends to diverge in this handling. May be another opportunity for strong/severe Tuesday, but confidence wanes at this point. Hydrologic threat too may persist before conditions suggested to dry out mid-late week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions under generally clear skies are expected to persist through the period. Breezy south southwesterly winds should relax by around 2z/3z tonight, with 10 knot SSW winds continuing through the overnight into Friday morning. Winds will eventually become westerly by Friday afternoon, with gusts up to 25 knots arriving at the terminals by around 21z Friday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...BMW