####018007577#### FXUS63 KDLH 152355 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 655 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move northeast across northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are the threats. - Rain begins today with a brief break behind today's storms, with widespread lighter rain returning tonight through Saturday morning. Up to an inch and a half of rain possible. - Cooler weather for the weekend with Saturday night and Sunday night lows lows near freezing for portions of the region with frost expected. Even a little snow will mix in for the Arrowhead Saturday night into morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Rest of Today - This Evening: Deep low pressure centered over southeastern North Dakota will largely spin in place through this evening as an occluded front lifts northeast through the Northland. Along and north of this front, a narrow warm sector has developed in central Minnesota down to the Twin Cities metro area, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35 to 45 kt. The 18Z MPX sounding depicts a favorable hodograph for development of low- level rotation, with 0-1km SRH of 211 m^2/s^2 and 0-3km SRH of 306 m^2/s^2. Scattered pre-frontal discreet storms have developed north of the front in central MN where this environment will be favorable for locally damaging wind gusts, large hail (up to 1.5 inches), and a tornado or two through the afternoon. Eventually as the front moves northward, hi-res model guidance favors storms in the Twin Cities metro area growing upscale into a line of storms (QLCS) and tracking northeast through the Northland, first in central and east-central MN by late afternoon and then through north-central MN, northwest WI, and the Arrowhead this evening. As the afternoon progresses, the MLCAPE should build to 1800-2800 J/kg from the Brainerd Lakes to northwest WI by late afternoon/early evening while shear remains strong, as well as 0-1km and 0-3km SRH continuing to remain favorable for low-level rotation and potential for a couple tornadoes with any mesovorties that develop in the lines of storms that move through. Damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph become increasingly likely with the line of storms later this afternoon into evening in this strongly sheared and buoyant environment, particularly in bowing segments of the storms. Large hail up to half-dollar size is also possible, particularly in northwest WI through early evening before better lapse rates aloft diminish. The steeper lapse rates in central/northeast MN tend to remain ahead of the line of storms, so while large hail (quarters) are still possible there, the threat is lesser than in NW WI. By mid-late evening, instability should begin to wane as storms move into the Iron Range, northern MN, and the Arrowhead, so the severe threat should gradually drop off towards the 8-10pm timeframe as storms move into those locations. Therefore, expect the tornado potential to drop off by the time storms reach the Iron Range, with the severe wind and hail threats dropping off as storms near the International Border. Tonight - Friday night: Expect a lull in precipitation behind the line of storms later this evening and tonight before more widespread, lighter rainfall overspreads the Northland as the low-pressure treks east across northern MN and Lake Superior. Steeper low-level lapse rates in central MN could even be sufficient enough to produce limited instability and a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain there. Rainfall totals for this afternoon through Friday night range from around 0.4" to around 1.25", with the highest amounts (0.75-1.25") extending from St. Cloud to the Brainerd Lakes, into the Twin Ports and parts of the North Shore up to Silver Bay. This Weekend - Next Week: Spottier light rain lingers on the back side of the departing low pressure for Saturday into Saturday night, with the potential (20-40%) for light snow to mix in over the Arrowhead Saturday night as colder air works in, though no snow impacts are expected. Seasonally cool temperatures, with highs in the 50s to mid 60s and lows largely in the 30s persist Saturday through early next week as a prolonged period of easterly surface winds persist. There are frost and freeze concerns for Sunday and Monday mornings, possibly the Arrowhead Tuesday morning as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Another rain system is possible Tuesday - Tuesday night, but the track of the low could trend just south enough that the Northland could miss out on more widespread rain chances. Rain chances range from 30-60%, highest in the southern half of the Northland. Beyond early next week, expect a gradual warm up again as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The line of storms moving through this evening is situated from FOZ to EVM to IWD as of 2345Z. Can't rule out some isolated strong to severe storms for gusty winds to 40 to locally 50 knots and small hail with it as it pushes through northern Minnesota this evening, but should largely be sub-severe. There is a secondary broken cluster of sub-severe storms about 1 to 1.5 hours behind the initial line that should lead to about 30-60 minutes of moderate rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Behind these storms, there will be a break in rain for a period of time until later tonight and Friday morning when more widespread light rain returns with the low pressure center moving through. Some low potential for thunder is also possible tonight at BRD, but should stay weaker with any storms. Winds turn southerly to southwesterly behind the second line of storms this evening into tonight, with gusts up to 30-35 knots possible from BRD east into northwest Wisconsin. Some LLWS is also possible tonight into early Friday morning at DLH and HYR. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Dense Fog continues on Lake Superior into this evening, with a Dense Fog Advisory in effect for the Outer Apostles and far western Lake Superior. A short period of gales is forecast along the north shore through early this evening, with small craft advisories until late evening as well before winds weaken on the Lake. Strong to severe storms also move across western Lake Superior this evening, with large hail and gusty winds up to 40-50 kt as the main threats. Storms exit later this evening. Winds remain easterly to southeasterly into Friday and then gradually veer to northwesterly Friday night into Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 145>148-150. Gale Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>144. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>146- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Rothstein ####018010254#### FXUS62 KRAH 152356 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 756 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the work week. A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 311 PM Thursday... * Isolated/Widely Scattered Strong/Severe Convection Possible across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain this afternoon/early evening Satellite imagery this afternoon depicted an extensive cu field across central NC, with some cu appearing agitated across the Wake/Johnson/Franklin/Nash vicinity. Further north, agitated cu are starting to show across the VA/WV high terrain. While considerable CAPE has developed across our area this afternoon, very little mid/upper forcing is present over the eastern seaboard. At the sfc, this morning's warm front has migrated further north into south- central VA. Given little upper or sfc forcing, any convection that develops the next few hours will largely be driven solely by boundary layer destabilization. This initial convection is forming within an area of weaker mid-level lapse rates. As such, the hail threat with this earlier convection (which should migrate east of our area soon) looks less severe. Beyond ~20-21Z, however, convection should pop off the Blue Ridge Mountains in central VA and possibly trickle a few isolated cells down into our area. If this convection can reach our area, forecasted hodographs and mid- lapse rates would favor right-moving supercells (elongated and clockwise-curved between 2-5 km) capable of producing large hail (possibly > 2 inches) and damaging wind gusts. Any stronger storms will dissipate with loss of heating this evening. Overnight should remain relatively dry, however showers associated with a decaying, upstream MCS may generate some measurable rainfall through sunrise across western areas. Otherwise, some patchy fog may be possible across northern areas early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday... * A conditional risk of severe storms will exist across the nrn half of cntl NC on Fri, based on lower predictability, mesoscale influences from upstream convection across the lwr OH Valley today- tonight. 12Z guidance this morning continues to highlight an uncertain forecast wrt to convection Friday. An upstream, decaying MCS is still forecast by several models (e.g. NamNest, HRRR, NSSL) to cruise across the mountains and foothills early Friday morning. Strong sfc gusts (possibly 35 to 45 kts) associated with it's cold pool still look plausible early to mid Friday morning across the northern Piedmont. This scenario would favor less convective potential later Friday afternoon, as lingering cooler air and cloud debris limit sfc heating across northern areas. Alternatively, the FV3 and ARW CAMs continue to simulate the morning MCS further north into Virginia. This scenario would favor strong heating across all of central NC and the development of strong CAPE by Friday afternoon. Any convection that develops in this environment would favor explosive updrafts and supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Given this potential scenario, the SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe storms over our northern tier of counties. However, given some models limit afternoon convection, decided to maintain just slight chance PoPs across generally northern locations Friday afternoon and evening. During the overnight hours, yet another round of upstream, decaying MCSs are forecast to move into the mountains and foothills through sunrise. Like clockwork, there is little guidance consensus on the evolution of these features. However, its worth noting that some CAMs do indicate the potential for another round of strong sfc gusts embedded within associated cold pools early Saturday morning. Worth watching for sure. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM Thursday... The mid/upper low and occluded surface low will track east across southern Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday and Saturday night, dragging a cold front to the south that will pass through central NC during the afternoon and evening. Model guidance indicates an MCS will approach from the TN Valley on Friday night, but weakening significantly as it crosses the Appalachians and approaches central NC on Saturday morning, with outflow surging out ahead of it. Models struggle with depicting the strength and timing of these MCS's, especially this far out, and that will be critical for the severe storm threat later in the day. A weaker MCS that passes through earlier on Saturday would favor more daytime heating and destabilization compared to vice versa. The NAM Nest is the only high-res guidance that goes out this far, and it does depict ample instability resulting in a broken line of showers and storms developing along the cold front from Saturday mid-afternoon into the evening. However, lower-res guidance is mostly dry, and moisture with the front does not look impressive, as the flow aloft is from a westerly direction. Furthermore, we will only get weak upper forcing with the low tracking so far to our north. GFS/ECM/CMC ensemble mean QPF continues to trend drier and is less than a tenth of an inch. So while convective coverage is still unclear, think it should be pretty isolated, and only have slight to low chance POPs. Still, there is a conditional threat of a few strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds developing along and ahead of the front, as surface-500 mb bulk shear will be as high as 40-50 kts. Also can't rule out some strong cold pool induced wind gusts with what is left of that MCS on Saturday morning. Saturday's temperatures may be kept down in the morning by outflow and clouds from the system, but we should still get good surface heating in the afternoon as clouds break and we get strong SW winds ahead of the front (gusting up to 20-30 mph even outside of any storms). So forecast highs are still mid-80s to lower-90s, not quite as warm as Friday, but heat indices in the mid-to-upper-90s will still be possible in the SE. The mid-level flow will turn NW from Sunday into Tuesday, as we are caught between the low slowly drifting east over New England and the Canadian Maritimes and ridging that strengthens and builds east from the MS Valley to the Deep South and TN Valley. At the surface, a backdoor cold front looks to move through central NC on Sunday night. This front then looks to lift back slowly north on Monday and Tuesday, and latest guidance has trended toward the front lingering more on top of our region instead of to our SW. Precipitation chances could be enhanced by a series of MCS's that move overtop the ridge and through the southern Mid-Atlantic. So expect gradually increasing shower and storm chances each day, but there is still plenty of uncertainty. The next mid/upper low will move east from the Central Plains on Tuesday, but models disagree on the pattern evolution after. The GFS picks it up by a northern stream low over the Great Lakes and is more progressive, while the ECMWF keeps the systems separate and thus hangs them back longer. This will have a big impact on precipitation chances as well as temperatures, but it looks like an associated cold front will move through sometime Wednesday or Thursday. For now have POPs increasing to high chance to likely on Wednesday, decreasing somewhat on Thursday as the GFS and most of its ensembles are dry by then while the ECMWF and CMC are still wet. As cool high pressure extends south from the Hudson Bay into the Eastern US, expect at least slightly cooler temperatures from Sunday into Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the upper-50s to mid-60s. Dew points will be more tolerable compared to now, generally mid-50s to lower-60s. A sharp drop to below-normal temperatures should occur late next week once the Wednesday/Thursday cold front moves through. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 755 PM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: Aside from an isolated shower or two east of KRWI, the remainder of the eve/night should be largely dry and VFR. However, cannot rule out some sub-VFR vsbys invof KRWI, where a storm occurred earlier this aft. Winds should become light and variable tonight, then generally wswwd at 5-10 kts Fri aft. Beyond 12Z Fri: Low confidence forecast as there is still a fair deal of uncertainty wrt a potential MCS, expected to intensify and move ewd across the mid-MS valley tonight. Some guidance suggest the MCS could hold together as it moves across the mountains and into the Triad as early as noon, tracking ewd along and north of I-85 through the aft/early eve. Other guidance has the MCS decaying as it moves across the mtns and keeps convection largely suppressed owning to a fair deal of debris cloudiness from the decaying MCS moving across the area early/mid day. Given the uncertainty, will keep TAFs at one line for now, but a period of storms/restrictions may need to be added for Fri aft/eve with later forecast issuances. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...KC/CBL ####018004419#### FXUS63 KFGF 152357 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 657 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, especially along and north of Highway 2. An isolated strong storm is possible. - Showers continue on Friday with much cooler temperatures. - There is a 60 percent chance for at least 1 inch of rain over eastern North Dakota through Friday. Best chances west of the Red River. - Patchy to areas of frost possible this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Severe weather threat is diminishing across the CWA this evening. Thus the Tornado Watch in portions of Minnesota was recently expired. Along and north of Highway 2 there still remains enough instability for thunderstorms, although lacks stronger shear for severe weather. Still could see some stronger wind gusts and perhaps small hail through this evening. The line currently pushing north has a history of producing isolated funnel clouds and brief tornadoes. This threat may linger into the evening, mainly in northern Minnesota as low level shear, 0 to 3 KM CAPE, and lower level lapse rates remain slightly elevated. The threat will diminish around or shortly after sunset. Behind this line a dry slot may briefly settling in before the next round of showers and isolated thunderstorms develops later tonight and into Friday. Lows tonight remain on track to be mainly in the 40s. Breezy winds could also be found tonight, then become strong north northwest winds on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...Synopsis... A strong upper low, and the corresponding shortwave, will traverse the area today through Friday. This will bring widespread rain chances to eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and west-central Minnesota. A few of todays storms could become severe. Heading into Friday, look for continuing rainfall and much cooler temperatures. Highs are only expected to reach the 40s and 50s. Cooler temperatures remain in place this weekend as high temperatures reach the upper 40s Saturday, then climb into the 50s for Sunday. Highs will then be in the 60s through the first half on next week. ...Severe Storms Possible Today... H5 upper low continues to approach southeastern North Dakota this afternoon. Soundings indicate the presence of CAPE values ranging from 1500 J/Kg to 2500 J/Kg. Low level shear, both in the 0-1km and 0-3km layers looks supportive of low top supercells or cluster/supercell hybrid mode. As such, the risk for brief tornadoes and hail up to 1 inch is worth a mention. Additionally, funnels are possible as the upper low passes through the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Showers and thunderstorms, along with low clouds, will bring periods of MVFR to IFR conditions through the forecast period. This evening, a line of showers and thunderstorms will push northward impacting sites mainly along and north of Highway 2. This activity could bring periods of MVFR conditions. Limited shower activity will be found south of this line this evening, although lingering low clouds could bring some MVFR ceilings. Tonight through Friday, low clouds could setting in across the area with periods of showers. The combination of low clouds and showers could bring widespread MVFR to IFR conditions. Chances for thunderstorms are low tonight through Friday. Timing of showers in some areas remains uncertain, thus used PROB30 groups for TAF sites with moderate confidence in this shower timing. Gusty winds will be found through the TAF period, and could be quite strong on Friday. Look for a general south and east wind tonight to become a north northwest wind on Friday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001>004-007. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Anglin ####018010911#### FXUS62 KRAH 152357 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 757 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the work week. A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 757 PM Thursday... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued a few hours ago for many northern counties in the forecast area based on anticipated convection, and while thunderstorms have fired across the eastern third of North Carolina, the rest of the forecast area has remained dry. Have elected to cancel the watch for counties along the Interstate 40 corridor, leaving a handful of counties to the northeast in the watch. The watch is scheduled to go through midnight, but considering how empty the radar has been, it appears likely that other counties will be cancelled early. Previous discussion follows. As of 311 PM Thursday... * Isolated/Widely Scattered Strong/Severe Convection Possible across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain this afternoon/early evening Satellite imagery this afternoon depicted an extensive cu field across central NC, with some cu appearing agitated across the Wake/Johnson/Franklin/Nash vicinity. Further north, agitated cu are starting to show across the VA/WV high terrain. While considerable CAPE has developed across our area this afternoon, very little mid/upper forcing is present over the eastern seaboard. At the sfc, this morning's warm front has migrated further north into south- central VA. Given little upper or sfc forcing, any convection that develops the next few hours will largely be driven solely by boundary layer destabilization. This initial convection is forming within an area of weaker mid-level lapse rates. As such, the hail threat with this earlier convection (which should migrate east of our area soon) looks less severe. Beyond ~20-21Z, however, convection should pop off the Blue Ridge Mountains in central VA and possibly trickle a few isolated cells down into our area. If this convection can reach our area, forecasted hodographs and mid- lapse rates would favor right-moving supercells (elongated and clockwise-curved between 2-5 km) capable of producing large hail (possibly > 2 inches) and damaging wind gusts. Any stronger storms will dissipate with loss of heating this evening. Overnight should remain relatively dry, however showers associated with a decaying, upstream MCS may generate some measurable rainfall through sunrise across western areas. Otherwise, some patchy fog may be possible across northern areas early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday... * A conditional risk of severe storms will exist across the nrn half of cntl NC on Fri, based on lower predictability, mesoscale influences from upstream convection across the lwr OH Valley today- tonight. 12Z guidance this morning continues to highlight an uncertain forecast wrt to convection Friday. An upstream, decaying MCS is still forecast by several models (e.g. NamNest, HRRR, NSSL) to cruise across the mountains and foothills early Friday morning. Strong sfc gusts (possibly 35 to 45 kts) associated with it's cold pool still look plausible early to mid Friday morning across the northern Piedmont. This scenario would favor less convective potential later Friday afternoon, as lingering cooler air and cloud debris limit sfc heating across northern areas. Alternatively, the FV3 and ARW CAMs continue to simulate the morning MCS further north into Virginia. This scenario would favor strong heating across all of central NC and the development of strong CAPE by Friday afternoon. Any convection that develops in this environment would favor explosive updrafts and supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Given this potential scenario, the SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe storms over our northern tier of counties. However, given some models limit afternoon convection, decided to maintain just slight chance PoPs across generally northern locations Friday afternoon and evening. During the overnight hours, yet another round of upstream, decaying MCSs are forecast to move into the mountains and foothills through sunrise. Like clockwork, there is little guidance consensus on the evolution of these features. However, its worth noting that some CAMs do indicate the potential for another round of strong sfc gusts embedded within associated cold pools early Saturday morning. Worth watching for sure. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM Thursday... The mid/upper low and occluded surface low will track east across southern Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday and Saturday night, dragging a cold front to the south that will pass through central NC during the afternoon and evening. Model guidance indicates an MCS will approach from the TN Valley on Friday night, but weakening significantly as it crosses the Appalachians and approaches central NC on Saturday morning, with outflow surging out ahead of it. Models struggle with depicting the strength and timing of these MCS's, especially this far out, and that will be critical for the severe storm threat later in the day. A weaker MCS that passes through earlier on Saturday would favor more daytime heating and destabilization compared to vice versa. The NAM Nest is the only high-res guidance that goes out this far, and it does depict ample instability resulting in a broken line of showers and storms developing along the cold front from Saturday mid-afternoon into the evening. However, lower-res guidance is mostly dry, and moisture with the front does not look impressive, as the flow aloft is from a westerly direction. Furthermore, we will only get weak upper forcing with the low tracking so far to our north. GFS/ECM/CMC ensemble mean QPF continues to trend drier and is less than a tenth of an inch. So while convective coverage is still unclear, think it should be pretty isolated, and only have slight to low chance POPs. Still, there is a conditional threat of a few strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds developing along and ahead of the front, as surface-500 mb bulk shear will be as high as 40-50 kts. Also can't rule out some strong cold pool induced wind gusts with what is left of that MCS on Saturday morning. Saturday's temperatures may be kept down in the morning by outflow and clouds from the system, but we should still get good surface heating in the afternoon as clouds break and we get strong SW winds ahead of the front (gusting up to 20-30 mph even outside of any storms). So forecast highs are still mid-80s to lower-90s, not quite as warm as Friday, but heat indices in the mid-to-upper-90s will still be possible in the SE. The mid-level flow will turn NW from Sunday into Tuesday, as we are caught between the low slowly drifting east over New England and the Canadian Maritimes and ridging that strengthens and builds east from the MS Valley to the Deep South and TN Valley. At the surface, a backdoor cold front looks to move through central NC on Sunday night. This front then looks to lift back slowly north on Monday and Tuesday, and latest guidance has trended toward the front lingering more on top of our region instead of to our SW. Precipitation chances could be enhanced by a series of MCS's that move overtop the ridge and through the southern Mid-Atlantic. So expect gradually increasing shower and storm chances each day, but there is still plenty of uncertainty. The next mid/upper low will move east from the Central Plains on Tuesday, but models disagree on the pattern evolution after. The GFS picks it up by a northern stream low over the Great Lakes and is more progressive, while the ECMWF keeps the systems separate and thus hangs them back longer. This will have a big impact on precipitation chances as well as temperatures, but it looks like an associated cold front will move through sometime Wednesday or Thursday. For now have POPs increasing to high chance to likely on Wednesday, decreasing somewhat on Thursday as the GFS and most of its ensembles are dry by then while the ECMWF and CMC are still wet. As cool high pressure extends south from the Hudson Bay into the Eastern US, expect at least slightly cooler temperatures from Sunday into Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the upper-50s to mid-60s. Dew points will be more tolerable compared to now, generally mid-50s to lower-60s. A sharp drop to below-normal temperatures should occur late next week once the Wednesday/Thursday cold front moves through. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 755 PM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: Aside from an isolated shower or two east of KRWI, the remainder of the eve/night should be largely dry and VFR. However, cannot rule out some sub-VFR vsbys invof KRWI, where a storm occurred earlier this aft. Winds should become light and variable tonight, then generally wswwd at 5-10 kts Fri aft. Beyond 12Z Fri: Low confidence forecast as there is still a fair deal of uncertainty wrt a potential MCS, expected to intensify and move ewd across the mid-MS valley tonight. Some guidance suggest the MCS could hold together as it moves across the mountains and into the Triad as early as noon, tracking ewd along and north of I-85 through the aft/early eve. Other guidance has the MCS decaying as it moves across the mtns and keeps convection largely suppressed owning to a fair deal of debris cloudiness from the decaying MCS moving across the area early/mid day. Given the uncertainty, will keep TAFs at one line for now, but a period of storms/restrictions may need to be added for Fri aft/eve with later forecast issuances. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...Green/Luchetti SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...KC/CBL ####018004330#### FXUS64 KMOB 152358 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 658 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Now through Friday night... An upper level ridge will expand northeast from the western Gulf across the southeast through the period as a strong trough digs across the northern plains. Ahead of this trough, a weak front will move into the southeast on Friday. However the strong ridge over the area will keep the front stalled well north of the area. This will maintain dry conditions will increasingly hot temps. Highs will be in the low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast. These temperatures combined with relatively high dewpoints will likely result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s. We upgraded the rip current risk to high today based on beach reports. It will drop to moderate tonight through Friday. /13 Saturday Through Wednesday... The heat is the main story through at least early next week as ridging allows high temperatures to soar into the mid to low 90s inland (mid to upper 80s at the beaches) each day. The ridge aloft flattens over the weekend as a trough continues to pivot across the Midwest. As the ridge flattens, a few subtle shortwaves slide across parts of the Southeast and Deep South through the zonal flow. Meanwhile, a surface high over the western Atlantic will cause an approaching boundary to stall across the central part of Alabama/Mississippi (north of our area). There will be just enough moisture across the northern portions of our area, along with the help of the nearby boundary, to allow for a few showers and storms to develop in the afternoon hours on both Saturday and Sunday. The southern portion of our area has a better chance of staying dry over the weekend with slightly drier air thanks to the upper level ridge parked over the Gulf waters. The ridge aloft begins to build again early next week with southwesterly flow aloft. Rain chances remain non-existent on Monday and Tuesday. Another trough pivots across the Midwest and Plains as we head into the middle part of the week and this one may be far enough south to provide a more substantial chance for rain area-wide. Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE on Saturday and falls to a low risk Saturday night through Monday. Our rip current MOS probabilities indicate that the risk may increase at some beaches on Tuesday, but there's no clear signal in the probabilities as to whether the risk will be a low or moderate yet. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 MVFR ceilings will spread from the coast northward over the entire region this evening through around 2am. Ceiling will continue to lower to IFR levels late tonight until shortly after sunrise on Friday. Patchy to areas of fog forming late tonight should result in MVFR to localized IFR visibilities. The fog will dissipate and ceilings will lift by 16/15z. Light southerly to southwesterly winds overnight will increase to around 10 knots with gusts to near 20 knots around mid-morning Friday. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 No marine impacts expected through the period. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 87 72 89 71 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 74 85 74 86 74 86 73 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 74 84 75 86 74 86 75 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 68 93 69 93 69 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 0 0 Waynesboro 69 92 71 93 69 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 20 10 10 0 0 Camden 69 92 70 91 69 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 20 20 20 10 0 Crestview 68 90 69 92 69 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob