####018006357#### FXUS64 KMEG 160003 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 703 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 -Hot and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the week. -Showers and thunderstorms return today. There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms through tonight. -The northern half of the region is in an Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk alongside a Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk within our far northern counties for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. -Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday through the middle of next week with another chance for severe storms Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Warm weather continues today underneath upper ridging with highs in the upper 80s that will last through tomorrow. High moisture still resides throughout the region with incredible instability within an increasingly sheared environment. Storms have already begun to fire in W AR, which is contrary to what much of this mornings' CAM guidance suggested. Forecast soundings, although potentially now unreliable, retain a stout EML below 700 mb throughout the region which could prevent a more significant severe threat. Regardless, DCAPE above 500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates above 8 C/km alongside 40+ knots of bulk shear will allow for organized bowing line segments and hail. KNQA and KLZK radar observation support this with storms expected to move through NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and NW TN this evening. Because of the EML and weak forcing, development further south is unlikely at this time, but will be monitored over the coming hours. Storms will likely diminish in strength after 00z as capping increases. Given the current trends this afternoon, thunderstorm activity tonight is growing more uncertain. However, CAM guidance has stubbornly held on to the idea of convection after 06z as the LLJ intensifies alongside continued upper height falls. The effects of this afternoon convection are likely to reduce some instability from portions of the region, but unaffected areas could see more development tonight. Forecast soundings depict a similar environment to this afternoon with high MUCAPE/Shear that would suggest a severe hail and damaging wind threat lasting through tomorrow morning. Again, this is a very uncertain forecast that could evolve in as little as a few hours but confidence is increasing in severe thunderstorms tonight. By tomorrow morning, the upper low that has been dominating this weeks weather will be parked over the Great Lakes. To its south, a seasonably strong jet streak is forecast to form over the Ohio River Valley granting strong shear across the entire region. Continued southerly advection is expected to overcome any modification of surface moisture that occurs tonight. By early afternoon short range and CAM guidance paints 3000+ MLCAPE over much of the region. Any capping is likely to be overcome as temperatures swell into the upper 80s with the potential for storms beginning as early as 2 PM with storms forming along and ahead of a cold front. Forecast soundings display relatively straight hodographs, which would favor splitting supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds early on. Later in the evening, hodograph curvature begins to increase that indicates higher tornado potential near and after sunset, especially with any discrete storms. Additionally, the potential for outflow boundaries and areas of enhanced SRH exists from tonight's convection. Storm coverage remains uncertain still with the potential for a mix of supercells and bowing line segments both along and ahead of the surface cold front. Storms will continue well into the overnight hours, but increasing capping is expected to reduce the severity of any remaining convection with time. The cold front will advance into N MS Saturday and stall as the upper jet lifts to our east. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible around the quasi-stationary boundary Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall totals through Sunday currently sit between 1-2" with locally heavier amounts likely. Going into next week, medium range guidance progs a new trough ejection in the Central Plains. The stationary boundary will then lift north, allowing for more warm, tropical weather by mid-week. Diurnal showers and storms are possible Monday afternoon. Another severe threat appears possible on Tuesday as the system makes its way through the Midsouth, but model discrepancies with respect to previous days' convection reduces confidence in what hazards will occur at this time. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement that a northwesterly upper pattern will take hold after Tuesday. Therefore, temperatures are expected to cool off to end the period with dry weather. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Multiple distinct rounds of precip will impact all terminals except TUP this TAF period due to a slow moving cold front. Already had one round of precip that is currently exiting the area, so have left VCSH for the next several hours just to account for some straggling showers left over. Next round looks to pick up overnight tonight with the potential for briefly reduced visibilities/ceilings and TSRA. Hi res guidance also wants to hold onto some more widespread MVFR cigs along the boundary early in the morning tomorrow. Much of the day looks largely dry tomorrow with VFR conditions quickly returning after sunrise. The main show of very well organized thunderstorms with damaging winds arrives after 00Z Sat and will likely pack a punch, especially for the northern terminals. Gusty non-thunderstorm winds from the SW are likely for the majority of the day into the evening tomorrow as well. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CAD