####018005061#### FXUS64 KOUN 111800 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Low-medium (20-50%) chance for rain/storms across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday night into Monday. - Warm, dry and breezy conditions lead to fire weather concern across north and west Oklahoma on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Another day of warm and dry weather is on tap to begin the weekend. While a persistent central CONUS ridge will remain the main driver of sensible conditions today, we will begin to see a transition in the synoptic regime, with a shortwave trough moving into the Intermountain West. Lee pressure falls will foster a breezy south wind and warm temperatures this afternoon. Both daytime highs and overnight lows are forecast to remain +10-15 degree above climo average. No precipitation is expected, though increasing coverage of high clouds is expected during the day. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 In a relative sense, Sunday & Monday will feature the most "impactful" weather over the last week. The previously mentioned upper trough will continue to advance eastward on Sunday. An increasing gradient in surface pressure, in response to lee cyclogenesis, will promote a gusty (in excess of 25-30 mph) south wind, especially across north and west Oklahoma. Combined with warm temperatures (90+ degrees in spots) and recent/prolonged dry weather, a low-end fire weather environment is forecast to emerge in areas west of Interstate 44 during the afternoon and early evening. However, additional offsetting factors (i.e., lack of significant upper jet/speed max intrusion and potential for areas of high clouds over the risk area) increase uncertainty in the magnitude of this concern. Still, given hot, dry and breezy conditions expected, will maintain the message of some degree of fire weather threat on Sunday. By Sunday night/Monday morning, a fetch of tropical moisture will begin to overspread the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. Coverage of scattered rain showers is expected to increase accordingly. A slow-moving cold front, trailing from an ejecting surface low across the Dakotas, is likely to serve as a focus for greatest (and longest duration) coverage on Monday. This remains most likely across western into northern Oklahoma. Sufficient elevated instability may also yield a few lightning strikes/rumbles of thunder during this time, though severe weather is not currently anticipated. The aforementioned front is expected to slow, stall and eventually weaken on Monday night, with generally decreasing chances for rain from southeast-to-northwest over time as a sub-tropical ridge begins to expand northward from Texas. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 As we go through Tuesday into Wednesday the upper ridge begins to build back northward, although perhaps the ridge axis may be a bit further to the east this time around. Sensible weather-wise will not matter as temperatures once again climb well above seasonal norms and dry conditions are then anticipated through the remainder of the week. May see the ridge break down again by the following weekend as possible pattern change occurs and stronger southwest flow develops across the central CONUS and stronger storm system may impact the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 All terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will maintain southerly surface winds around 10 kts gusting 15-20 kts through 00Z. Surface winds back slightly southeast after 00Z. A low-level jet will be increasing out of the south-southwest by 06Z which could produce low-level wind shear of 35 kts at flight level 020 ft across four of our terminals in northcentral through central Oklahoma. Surface winds will veer south-southwesterly by 16Z while a tightening pressure gradient will produce sustained winds at 15-20 kts with gusts at 20-25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 89 69 78 / 0 10 10 20 Hobart OK 64 91 67 80 / 0 10 20 30 Wichita Falls TX 63 92 69 85 / 0 10 10 10 Gage OK 66 87 61 72 / 0 10 30 50 Ponca City OK 64 91 66 75 / 0 10 20 40 Durant OK 61 89 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...68 ####018008226#### FXUS62 KRAH 111802 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off the northeast coast of Florida will intensify as it tracks slowly northeast along the coast of the Southeast states, Carolinas, and Mid Atlantic through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM Saturday... Rain will spread into the area from the south and east later this morning and afternoon. Windy conditions with NE winds 15-25 mph. Gusts to 30+ mph possible, especially later today and tonight. Timing of the rain due to the developing coastal low pressure off the FL coast moving north will be the main issue today. The strong high pressure centered off the New England coast extending down the Appalachians will continue to weaken. Low pressure will track from off the FL coast northward toward the SC and SE NC coastline later today and tonight. There continued to be a bit of question marks concerning the timing of the rain, the placement and amounts, and the associated winds. Hi-res models continue to be quicker with the rainfall overspreading the region. The operational GFS and other models are slower with this timing. Given the amount of dry air in place early today, we may split the difference to account for the weakening and retreating dry air associated with the once strong Canadian high pressure. SE areas should see rainfall by late morning. This should spread north and west through the day, reaching the Triangle mid to late day and the Triad by evening. Then later today/tonight it appears that rain will become widespread with some heavier rainfall in the Coastal Plain into the eastern Piedmont tonight. Due to the current very dry antecedent conditions, the expected QPF of 1.5 to 2 inches SE, around 1 inch interior, and less than 0.5 or 0.25 in the NW, any flooding should be minor. Winds will become NE at 15-25 mph this morning, even in the Triad where the pressure gradient will remain tight. Expect some gusts to 30 to 35 mph, especially in the Coastal Plain later today and tonight with the rainfall. This is not expected to pose a widespread hazard. Highs today should hold in the mid 60s to around 70. Lows tonight mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Saturday... * Continued breezy with high rain chances, decreasing late. Models agreed fairly well that the surface low will be near the southern Outer Banks or southern coast of NC tomorrow morning, with a likely secondary low further N along the Mid Atlantic coast. The mid levels will continue to feature a deep E Coast low/trough, highlighted by 2 embedded closed lows over GA/SC and NY. The surface low is expected to steadily lift northward, reaching the tip of the Delmarva by late Sun night. (It is worth noting that the RAP/HRRR instead favor taking the low slowly SSW over E SC Sun/Sun night, not an impossible solution given the presence of the slow-moving mid level trough. But with a high spread among HREF members, will favor a more progressive low at this time.) Given the expected high moisture content through the low and mid levels over central NC, strong and confluent northeasterly low level (925-850 mb) moisture flux, a stream of 150% of normal PW, and forcing for ascent provided by moist upglide topped with fading but still-present upper divergence and weak DPVA, continued high pops in the 50-70% range are warranted. An area of higher categorical pops may be necessary over central and eastern sections, depending on where the cold front aloft sets up as the surface low tracks northward. Additional rainfall of a quarter to three-quarters of an inch is expected, with isolated higher amounts possible if any pivoting rainbands form. Winds just off the surface are projected to be from the NNE around 35-45 kts for much of the day, and with at least some groundward mixing and modest low-level stability, peak gusts of 25-30 mph are expected, a bit of an uptick from the previous forecast. With minimal sunshine, thick clouds, CAA, and areas of rain, temps over most of the area should move just 5-8 degrees from tonight's lows, putting highs in the mid 60s to around 70. Rain should gradually diminish by evening and particularly overnight, with pops decreasing to low chances mainly NE late and low amounts as lift wanes and we lose moisture aloft. Expect a low diurnal range to persist, with lows in the mid 50s to around 60, as we see a steady breeze last into the night with continued high moisture in the low levels and only partial clearing expected in the west late. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 155 PM Saturday... * Lingering light rain possible in the E CWA early Mon morning, otherwise dry weather expected through the week. Gradual drying is expected to continue Mon morning as low level flow backs to a more NNW to NW direction, yielding a downslope component, although as noted above, if the recent RAP/HRRR is correct, we may see light rain chances hold on longer over the E as one last dose of energy swings through the trough base over E NC Mon. Otherwise, as the surface low departs to the NE, mild high pressure building in from the W along with rising heights aloft due to amplified mid level ridging spreading in from SE TX will result in fair skies and near to above normal temps into mid week. A renewed digging of a deep mid level low over the far NW Atlantic off New England late in the week is still expected to drag a dry backdoor cold front southward through NC, drawing cooler thicknesses back into the area and bumping temps back below normal for Thu/Fri. Moist return flow will be lacking with this front, so aside from perhaps early Mon, dry weather is likely through Fri. Expect highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Mon, coolest NE, followed by low-upper 70s Tue/Wed, then back to the mid 60s to mid 70s for Thu and Fri. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 127 PM Saturday... A mix-bag of MVFR to IFR ceilings have spread across central NC this afternoon as the coastal low continues to develop just offshore. Expect light rain to move nnw over the next several hours with steadier rain expected to reach KFAY/KRWI/KRDU later this evening and overnight. Periods of LIFR ceilings may be possible by early Sunday morning at these terminals. KINT/KGSO will also drop to IFR but the heaviest rain should stay east of the Triad through this event. Expect all terminals to remain socked in through the end of the 24 hr TAF period. Otherwise, expect nnely sfc winds to pick up late this afternoon and especially into the overnight period. Gusts as high as 30 to 35 kts could be possible at KFAY/KRWI through early Sunday morning. Expect gustiness to persist into the early Sunday afternoon period. While sfc gusts are expected to stay up throughout the night, there is a signal for potential low-level wind shear especially at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI late tonight/early Sunday morning. While it might not be traditional LLWS in a sense, it could be quite turbulent given the strengthening nnely jet just above the sfc (~50 to 55 kts). Decided to add LLWS at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI to account for this possibility. Outlook: Light rain and sub-VFR ceilings will persist Sunday afternoon/evening and perhaps into the overnight period. The low will lift north into the Delmarva area by Monday morning, behind which drier air should clear out the sub-VFR cloudiness through Monday afternoon. VFR conditions will then persist through the rest of the extended as high pressure settles down the east coast. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...NTL ####018007196#### FXUS66 KOTX 111802 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1102 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early winter storm for the northern mountains from the northern Washington Cascades to North Idaho Sunday into Monday morning. - Gusty north to northeast winds on Monday. - Below normal temperatures Sunday into early next week with highs in the 50s. Low temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s by Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... The weekend will bring breezy conditions and much cooler temperatures. Saturday will bring showers across North Idaho and Eastern Washington, with more widespread rain and mountain snow developing on Sunday. Heavy snow with winter conditions is expected in the northern mountains above 3000 feet late in the weekend. Dry weather with fall like temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... ...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES TO NORTH IDAHO... Today and Tonight: A closed low over northwest Oregon this morning will track east today, getting picked up by an upper trough passing through southern British Columbia. Increased mid level moisture, and weak lift with these passing features will result in an increasing coverage of showers, with the highest focus over the Idaho Panhandle due to added upslope westerly flow. Snow levels will be around 6000 feet limiting snow to the higher peaks. Sunday through Monday: The forecast gets more interesting during this period as an upper trough drops south out of Canada and intensifies over the region as a surface low spins up along the WA/OR coast in the left exit region of an upper level jet. Increasing precipitation with the low, will combine with north to northeast winds bringing cooler air into the region. Snow levels drop to around 3000-4000 feet over northern Washington, and 5000 feet over SE Washington. For the North ID Panhandle, models drop the snow level as low as 2000 feet which may result in wet snow for areas such as Priest Lake, Bonners Ferry, and Sandpoint. Several inches of snow is expected in the mountains of northern Washington and the north ID Panhandle, as well as the Central Panhandle Mountains which may impact travel over Washington, Sherman, Stevens, and Lookout Passes. The heaviest precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night. Below are the are the probabilities for snowfall thresholds of at least 2", 4", and 8" at our mountain passes Mountain Pass Chance of 2+" Chance of 4+" Chance of 8+" Washington 90% 85% 80% Sherman 95% 85% 25% Lookout 65% 35% 5% Stevens 75% 55% 20% Blewett 60% 35% 5% Loup Loup 80% 55% 15% Circling back to the winds, the pressure gradient over the region on Monday strengthens between a 1030mb surface high over southern Alberta, and a 1002mb surface low along the Oregon coast. This will bring gusty northeast winds especially in the open areas of the Columbia Basin, and channeled north-south drainages such as the Purcell Trench in North Idaho (Sandpoint and Coeur d'Alene areas), and the Okanogan Valley. The NBM is advertising gusts of 30-40 MPH in these areas. Early fall outdoor enthusiasts should be prepared for snow and wind chills dropping into the teens with this storm! Monday Night through Thursday: A quieter pattern returns as the low drops south over California and an upper ridge builds off the coast providing a dry north to northwest flow over the Inland NW. It will feel like fall as low temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s for most of the region, and daytime highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday: 85% of the ensembles shows another system dropping in from the northwest but differ with the strength. 40% show a windy and wet scenario while 45% show a weaker trough. Forecast currently leans towards the weaker scenario but this will continue to be monitored in the coming days. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Low pressure will move across the area today into this evening, with increasing showers especially over the eastern third of Washington and Idaho. A moist boundary layer fueled by ongoing shower activity and upslope flow into the Palouse (KPUW), Spokane-Coeur d'Alene corridor (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE), northeast Washington (KDEW/K63S) and Idaho Panhandle (K65S/KSZT) will keep low stratus and MVFR conditions in place through the afternoon. MVFR conditions will continue into tonight across these same airports. Breezy westerly winds through this afternoon as well across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin into the Spokane Area and Palouse wit gusts up to 15-25 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence of ceilings below 3 kft and MVFR conditions through the afternoon at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. The HREF model indicates ceilings lifting late in the afternoon after 22Z with potential for ceilings between 3-5 kft and VFR conditions into this additional moisture into the boundary layer fromevening. Moderate to high confidence at ceilings will lower again late tonight into Sunday morning for these same airport terminals with a moistening boundary layer from additional rainfall. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 56 40 47 36 50 32 / 50 80 90 90 20 0 Coeur d'Alene 55 40 47 36 50 32 / 70 90 90 90 20 0 Pullman 54 38 46 39 54 30 / 60 90 90 80 20 0 Lewiston 62 47 53 43 59 39 / 60 90 80 70 20 10 Colville 56 29 48 36 51 20 / 80 90 90 90 20 0 Sandpoint 53 35 45 33 47 26 / 90 100 100 100 30 0 Kellogg 51 41 44 32 47 32 / 80 90 100 100 30 10 Moses Lake 62 41 54 40 53 35 / 30 20 60 80 50 0 Wenatchee 61 44 52 40 50 37 / 30 30 70 90 50 0 Omak 61 40 52 41 55 34 / 40 50 70 90 30 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Western Okanogan County. Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan County- Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area- Western Chelan County. ID...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Northern Panhandle. && $$ ####018006059#### FXUS61 KRLX 111804 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 204 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions today. A coastal low developing off the Carolinas will bring a chance for light precipitation to the mountains Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM Saturday... River valley fog has mixed out across much of the forecast area this morning, with any lingering fog across NE KY expected to dissipate within the next hour, setting the stage for a beautiful Saturday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures approximately 5 degrees above normal. As of 145 AM Saturday... Already weak downslope flow off the higher terrain associated with broad high pressure offshore is weakening, and with light winds and clear skies, areas of dense valley fog have already begun to develop and will likely become more widespread into sunrise. A weak cold front located across Indiana and Ohio is expected to wash out as it moves into the local area later today, with an associated shield of mid and high level clouds scattering out upon arrival. Otherwise, expect a dry and pleasant day with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 70s for most lowland locations, and into the upper 50s for the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 AM Saturday... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of a coastal low pressure system off the Carolina coast and its interaction with a weak upper trough moving through the Great Lakes region tonight into Sunday. The operational guidance envelope continues to show a wide range of solutions, evident in the NBM interquartile range for 24-hour rainfall totals in Randolph and Pocahontas counties, which spans from 0.00 to 0.50 inches Sunday into Monday. For now, the forecast maintains the highest precipitation chances confined to the eastern mountains and the windward upslope areas further south, primarily on Sunday into Sunday night as moisture from the coastal system gets drawn westward. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain generally light. As the pressure gradient tightens between the departing high pressure to the north and the deepening coastal low to the southeast, winds will increase, particularly across the higher terrain. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible in the mountains Sunday morning. By Monday, the influence of these systems will wane as they move eastward, allowing drier conditions to return from west to east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM Saturday... An upper-level ridge is forecast to build eastward from the central United States through the middle of the week, leading to a period of dry weather and a warming trend. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s for the lowlands by Tuesday, which is several degrees above normal for this time of year. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to dig down the front of the ridge, pushing a dry cold front through the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Sensible weather impacts from this feature appear minimal, aside from ushering in a significantly cooler and drier airmass. There is some potential for a widespread frost, or perhaps even a freeze, late in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Widespread VFR today will give way to increasing clouds overnight across the higher terrain, along with the development of some river valley fog, primarily across the lowlands. River valley fog could result in brief MVFR (or worse) conditions at HTS/PKB drifting over from the Ohio River, while also at CRW from the Elk River. Any fog should lift/dissipate from ~12-14Z. In addition, brief MVFR/IFR could occur at BKW/EKN with stratus late tonight and Sunday morning, but overall, general downslope flow is expected to maintain mainly VFR conditions. A few isolated showers are possible across the northeast mountains late in the TAF period. Light and variable flow is expected today, with light NNE or calm flow tonight. Northeast flow develops on Sunday, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible in the mountains (and at CKB/EKN) towards the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog/stratus late tonight and Sunday morning, high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog at CRW/HTS/PKB late tonight could vary from the forecast. MVFR/IFR could occur at BKW/EKN late tonight and Sunday morning with stratus. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... At least patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GW NEAR TERM...JP/GW SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GW