####018008481#### FXUS61 KAKQ 160111 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 911 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today. Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and humidity Friday and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms possible ahead of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 910 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled. - Mild tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Thunderstorms have either dissipated or moved out of the area this evening with CIN increasing which should prevent further storm development. As such, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled. Mostly dry conditions are expected overnight with patchy fog possible late tonight into early Fri morning. Mild and partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the mid- upper 60s to around 70F SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Friday and Saturday afternoons/evenings, some of which could be strong to severe. - Temperatures trend warmer, with a summer-like feel on Friday. Upper air ridging will continue to influence the region, while an upper level low strengthens over the northern Midwest. The ridging and sub-sequential SW flow will bring warm temperatures to the area. Highs are looking to warm up to the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the high humidity, the day will feel hot and muggy in the lower to mid 90s during peak daytime heating hours. The big question for Friday will be if storms develop. The forcing mechanisms do not look to be strong, with ridging aloft and fairly constant pressure heights. With the highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and the trough heights near 5800 mb, the capping may be more easily broken with the weaker trough. Any lifting would have to come from some boundary, potentially as excess energy from the MCS to the northwest. The CAMs model (excluding the NAM) show initiation and a large convective complex Friday evening into overnight. There is uncertainty based on the recent CAMs, which show that storms may develop earlier. Models tend to struggle with events like this, so they are taken with caution. The coverage amount and timing remains in low confidence as model show very little agreement. If these storms can develop, they would enter a volatile environment for strong to severe storms. The moisture and warm temperatures will help the atmosphere become very favorable for high levels of instability. Recent CAMS models show values 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE. Efficient shear to support thunderstorm growth is likely with models showing values of effective shear of 40-50 kt. Lapse rates from 7.0- 7.5 C/km and strong DCAPE could be favorable for strong winds and severe hail. With this environment, Friday is an all-hazards type of threat. In fact, SPC has upgraded the entire CWA today for this event, now with most all of VA and MD under a slight risk (level 2/5) and NC under a marginal risk (level 1/5). SPC has the wind threat as the highest risk at 15% for VA and MD as well as a 2% tornado risk and 5% within the slight risk. As for Saturday, a cold front will move through the region in the afternoon, but after the daytime highs is reached in the upper 80s. The environment will be similar to today's, favorable with ample instability and shear, but yet again the forcing mechanism will be the limiting factor as the front is forecast to weaken before reaching the area. With the warm temperatures like Friday, instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE are expected. Supportive shear values for storm development are forecast as well. Additionally, SPC has the majority of the area in a slight risk (level 2/5) except for the far NW counties of the CWA. There is still lower confidence in timing and coverage, but isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible, with a few potentially becoming severe. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Drying out Sunday into the early half of next week as high pressure returns. - Unsettled weather could return Wednesday and Thursday. Behind Saturday's cold front, high pressure will move back into the region from the north. An upper air trough will take over the majority of the CONUS. The next surface low pressure system will begin to develop out in the Central Plains. With the high pressure, dry conditions will be favorable for the first half of next week. Temperatures will return to seasonable with the trough. An upper level low is favored to develop in the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, which will lead to an unsettled weather pattern. Afternoon showers and storms chance will increase in the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Thursday... CIGs were mainly VFR across the area this evening. Storms will continue to be possible at ECG over the next few hours before convection tapers off. Farther north, RIC has a conditional chance to see a storm tonight between 2-5z. However, given the current storm motion, it appears storms may remain W of the terminal. For now, have gone with a PROB30 for showers to account for the uncertainty. Any showers/storms taper off overnight with SCT-BKN sky cover. Otherwise, a marine layer may attempt to push inland overnight with MVFR/IFR CIGs possible at SBY. Patchy fog is also possible at SBY, RIC, and PHF. MVFR or IFR VIS will be possible in any fog. MVFR CIGs may linger at SBY until 15-16z Fri. Additionally, an isolated shower/storm is possible at SBY by late Fri morning into early Fri afternoon. Outlook: Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night. While there is a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to timing, some of the storms could be severe with gusts up to 50 kt (or higher). Predominate VFR conditions return over the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday. - Locally strong to severe storms possible into tonight and again late Friday/Friday night. A weak pressure gradient across the area this aftn has led to light and variable winds, slowly shifting from SW to more of an E-SE direction across the lower Bay, and to the S elsewhere. Seas are still a bit elevated with SE swell, at 3-4 ft, with waves in the Bay/rivers/sound 1 foot or less, except near 2 ft at the mouth of the bay. Scattered storms, potentially strong to severe, are possible this evening/tonight, especially for the Bay/rivers and will be handled via MWS/SMWs as needed. Otherwise, winds increase a bit on friday, becoming S-SW ~10-15 kt, with yet another round of scattered showers and storms possible, but mainly holding off until very late in the aftn or early evening into Friday night. There may be brief period of elevated, near sub-SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across the lower James/lower Bay. Winds veer around to the W/NW Sunday and Sunday night in the wake of a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond- Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for more site- specific information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/SW NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...KMC/SW LONG TERM...KMC/SW AVIATION...RMM MARINE...LKB HYDROLOGY... ####018008733#### FXUS63 KDLH 160113 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 813 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of sub-severe storms across far northern Minnesota exits the area by 10 PM. Small hail, gusty winds to 40 mph, and frequent lightning are the main threats. - A brief break in rain behind this evening's storms behind today's storms, with widespread lighter rain returning tonight through Saturday morning. - Cooler weather for the weekend with Saturday night and Sunday night lows lows near freezing for portions of the region with frost expected. Even a little snow will mix in for the Arrowhead Saturday night into morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The line of storms is now situated in far northern Minnesota into western Lake Superior and will push north of the area by 9-10 PM CDT. Instability has dropped off drastically as storms have trended north, with less than 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE across northern MN, the Arrowhead, and northwest WI, but surface-based parcels are quickly building convective inhibition as daylight comes to an end. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are present along the occluded front from Big Falls to the Twin Ports to northwest WI, but a lack of instability and decreasing shear should prevent these storms from becoming strong. One item of note going into late this evening and overnight is that strong cold advection behind the occluded front is leading to gusty synoptic southwest winds, with gusts up to 30-40 mph starting to get into the Brainerd Lakes and western Wisconsin. These gusts should continue overnight into Friday, expanding across much of the Northland. The stronger gusts will linger longest from the Brainerd Lakes into northwest WI through early Friday afternoon before weakening late in the day as the center of the surface low pressure slides east across the Northland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Rest of Today - This Evening: Deep low pressure centered over southeastern North Dakota will largely spin in place through this evening as an occluded front lifts northeast through the Northland. Along and north of this front, a narrow warm sector has developed in central Minnesota down to the Twin Cities metro area, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 35 to 45 kt. The 18Z MPX sounding depicts a favorable hodograph for development of low- level rotation, with 0-1km SRH of 211 m^2/s^2 and 0-3km SRH of 306 m^2/s^2. Scattered pre-frontal discreet storms have developed north of the front in central MN where this environment will be favorable for locally damaging wind gusts, large hail (up to 1.5 inches), and a tornado or two through the afternoon. Eventually as the front moves northward, hi-res model guidance favors storms in the Twin Cities metro area growing upscale into a line of storms (QLCS) and tracking northeast through the Northland, first in central and east-central MN by late afternoon and then through north-central MN, northwest WI, and the Arrowhead this evening. As the afternoon progresses, the MLCAPE should build to 1800-2800 J/kg from the Brainerd Lakes to northwest WI by late afternoon/early evening while shear remains strong, as well as 0-1km and 0-3km SRH continuing to remain favorable for low-level rotation and potential for a couple tornadoes with any mesovorties that develop in the lines of storms that move through. Damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph become increasingly likely with the line of storms later this afternoon into evening in this strongly sheared and buoyant environment, particularly in bowing segments of the storms. Large hail up to half-dollar size is also possible, particularly in northwest WI through early evening before better lapse rates aloft diminish. The steeper lapse rates in central/northeast MN tend to remain ahead of the line of storms, so while large hail (quarters) are still possible there, the threat is lesser than in NW WI. By mid-late evening, instability should begin to wane as storms move into the Iron Range, northern MN, and the Arrowhead, so the severe threat should gradually drop off towards the 8-10pm timeframe as storms move into those locations. Therefore, expect the tornado potential to drop off by the time storms reach the Iron Range, with the severe wind and hail threats dropping off as storms near the International Border. Tonight - Friday night: Expect a lull in precipitation behind the line of storms later this evening and tonight before more widespread, lighter rainfall overspreads the Northland as the low-pressure treks east across northern MN and Lake Superior. Steeper low-level lapse rates in central MN could even be sufficient enough to produce limited instability and a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain there. Rainfall totals for this afternoon through Friday night range from around 0.4" to around 1.25", with the highest amounts (0.75-1.25") extending from St. Cloud to the Brainerd Lakes, into the Twin Ports and parts of the North Shore up to Silver Bay. This Weekend - Next Week: Spottier light rain lingers on the back side of the departing low pressure for Saturday into Saturday night, with the potential (20-40%) for light snow to mix in over the Arrowhead Saturday night as colder air works in, though no snow impacts are expected. Seasonally cool temperatures, with highs in the 50s to mid 60s and lows largely in the 30s persist Saturday through early next week as a prolonged period of easterly surface winds persist. There are frost and freeze concerns for Sunday and Monday mornings, possibly the Arrowhead Tuesday morning as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. Another rain system is possible Tuesday - Tuesday night, but the track of the low could trend just south enough that the Northland could miss out on more widespread rain chances. Rain chances range from 30-60%, highest in the southern half of the Northland. Beyond early next week, expect a gradual warm up again as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 The line of storms moving through this evening is situated from FOZ to EVM to IWD as of 2345Z. Can't rule out some isolated strong to severe storms for gusty winds to 40 to locally 50 knots and small hail with it as it pushes through northern Minnesota this evening, but should largely be sub-severe. There is a secondary broken cluster of sub-severe storms about 1 to 1.5 hours behind the initial line that should lead to about 30-60 minutes of moderate rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Behind these storms, there will be a break in rain for a period of time until later tonight and Friday morning when more widespread light rain returns with the low pressure center moving through. Some low potential for thunder is also possible tonight at BRD, but should stay weaker with any storms. Winds turn southerly to southwesterly behind the second line of storms this evening into tonight, with gusts up to 30-35 knots possible from BRD east into northwest Wisconsin. Some LLWS is also possible tonight into early Friday morning at DLH and HYR. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 800 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A line of showers and storms around Grand Marais will continue moving northeast through around 10 PM before exiting western Lake Superior. Lightning, small hail, and gusty winds up to 30 knots. Dense fog has diminished as the storms have moved through, so the Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled. The Gale Warning was also cancelled as winds have fallen below gale levels along the North Shore. Wind gusts up 25 to 30 kt continue for the western Lake Superior nearshore waters through early tonight, with waves lingering along the North Shore before diminishing. Winds remain easterly to southeasterly into Friday and then gradually veer to northwesterly Friday night into Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...Rothstein DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Rothstein ####018006035#### FXUS61 KCAR 160114 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 914 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system approaches from the north this evening, then settles across northern Maine late tonight and Friday. Another low pressure system moves in from the west Saturday through Sunday, then slowly exits to the east on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 9:15 PM Update...Humid air is sustained the showers across the north into late evening. Updated forecast to carry scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms a bit longer into the evening, mainly over Northern Aroostook. The rest of the forecast looks good. Previous discussion... Isolated to scattered shower/storm activity may be a bit slow to dissipate this evening over the north thanks to backdoor cold front approaching from the north, allowing for some low-level convergence over central/northern Aroostook just ahead of the front. Thus, kept 40 PoPs mainly into the evening. Dry elsewhere tonight. Mild with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Fog this evening spreads north into the waters and onshore, gradually marching north through the night as fog or perhaps just low clouds further inland. Fog could be dense along the coast, and perhaps up to Bangor as well. Friday... Backdoor cold front slides south/southwest and gets hung up a bit along the central highlands. Looks much cooler over eastern portions of the area behind the backdoor cold front, and undercut guidance in this area based on usual biases. Going for highs in the low 60s over Eastern Aroostook, ranging to the low to mid 70s over western portions of the area. Abundant low clouds Friday especially along/east of the backdoor cold front. Concern Friday of some slow-moving showers/storms with heavy downpours and a threat of localized flash flooding. Most likely this would occur along/just west of the backdoor cold front, from the central highlands and Moosehead Lake into the North Woods. Airmass is fairly moist, and with the virtually zero storm motion, some CAMs are producing very locally over 6 inches of rain. Going to highlight this in hazardous weather outlook and added heavy downpours to the grids. Again, the area with this threat is fairly small and appears limited to around the central highlands and Moosehead Lake into the western North Woods. Other places could get a shower, but nothing significant. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday night...The occluded front will gradually move into the region. Models indicate CAD setting in north of the Central Highlands. This should keep higher rainfall amounts to the western border. Temps should be in the 50s across the area. Saturday...The triple point of the occlusion should start to move closer to the area from the SW. Extended models are in fairly good agreement with the timing and track of the system, so increased rain chances across the south. The CAD should stick around most of the day, keeping temps in the upper 50s in the north and low 50s in the south. Saturday night...The triple point will slowly progress across the area. Models indicate possible heavier bands of rain in the north, though chances will reduce with the center of the triple point moving over the region. Sunday...Rain should continue throughout the day as the new center of the low settles over the region. Cloudy skies and the cooler NW airmass should keep temps in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The large vertically stacked upper level trof will move off to the E by the beginning of next week. This should bring chances of rain through until Tuesday night. Model show uncertainty on if/when the rain will clear out. The GFS and Euro show light rain showers while the CmC shows little to no rain. Decided to go with slight chance. Another low pressure system could move in by the weekend, but models are inconsistent buy this time. Temps show a consistent cooling trend with up to 10 degrees cooler than normal for daytime highs. Low temps have a potential of reaching to frost levels in the north, but unsure with the unknown tracks of the next system. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Tonight... VFR conditions this afternoon will be replaced with IFR from south to north this evening and overnight. BGR/BHB likely to get LIFR from fog and low clouds, and this will begin shortly after sunset. The low clouds make it up to Aroostook terminals after midnight. A few thunderstorms possible around GNR late this afternoon. Light south breeze tonight. Friday... Gradual improvement over Downeast terminals such as BHB/BGR, with possible MVFR or low VFR toward afternoon mainly inland from the immediate coast such as at BGR. Further north from MLT/HUL north, IFR may be replaced by MVFR toward late morning, but it is doubtful that it will improve to VFR during the afternoon. Variable winds less than 10 kts. Localized thunderstorms mainly around GNR Friday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Fri night - Mon: MVFR with occasional IFR in showers. Brief LIFR fog possible at coastal terminals through Sat. Steadier rain across all terminals Sat night. SE winds 5 to 10 kts shifting N to NW Sun into Mon. Winds could increase to 10 to 15 kts Mon afternoon. Tues...Mainly MVFR in rain showers. N winds 10-15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Below small craft, with areas of fog tonight and Friday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for all waters through Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Foisy Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...Bloomer/Foisy/LaFlash Marine...Bloomer/Foisy/LaFlash ####018004557#### FXHW60 PHFO 160114 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 314 PM HST Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds will prevail through the week. A disturbance aloft will linger near the state and enhance moisture in the trade wind flow. Showers will be active across windward slopes and will periodically pass over leeward areas, especially at night. Leeward Big Island will experience spotty showers, some heavy, each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... A breezy and slightly unstable trade wind flow will prevail during the next few days. A robust 1031 mb surface high meandering about 1200 to 1300 miles northeast of the state will maintain easterly trades near current strength, though a shift out of the east-southeast is expected during the weekend as troughing develops far northwest of the islands. The inversion is elevated and weak at around 9,000 feet this afternoon due to an upper-level low parked over the region. This feature should deepen slightly Friday and Saturday, leading to modest instability. The instability will enhance pockets of moisture moving within the trade wind flow, causing showers along windward areas to be more frequent and briefly heavy. One such area of moisture will move through on Friday and allow some showers to periodically pass over leeward areas from Kauai to west Maui. On leeward Big Island, typical spotty afternoon showers will be briefly heavy with a slight chance of thunderstorms each afternoon. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will shift back out of the east-northeast on Monday as surface high pressure becomes established far north of the islands. The upper-level trough is expected to drift just northeast of the state through at least Wednesday. This subtle shift is expected to be enough to lessen the chances of thunderstorms, though the inversion may remain slightly weak and elevated. As a result, expect showers along windward areas to continue to be more active than usual. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy trade winds continue across the island chain through Friday afternoon, steered by high pressure centered far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. Passing showers and occasional low clouds embedded within the trades will favor north through southeast sections of the islands throughout this period, especially during the overnight to early morning hours. While VFR flight conditions will prevail at most locations, periods of MVFR conditions will be possible within any showers that occur. AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward sections of most of the islands. Passing showers will continue to produce periods of MVFR conditions across windward areas through Friday. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely also continue through Friday. && .MARINE... An area of strong high pressure will remain nearly stationary far northeast of the state through the rest of the week, bringing fresh to locally strong trade winds to the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Friday for now. While winds may ease slightly and veer toward the east-southeast this weekend due to a trough far northwest of the state, the SCA will likely need to be extended for at least some zones into next week. Surf along north and west-facing shores will remain small for the next few days. Only a slight bump in north shore surf is possible on Friday and Saturday due to small medium-period northwest energy moving through the region. Surf along south-facing shores will also remain small throughout the next week. A tiny long- period south-southwest swell will build late Friday into the weekend. Otherwise, expect mainly background energy through at least the middle of next week. Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy the next several days due to the fresh to locally strong trades. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters- Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wroe AVIATION...Kino MARINE...Vaughan