####018004840#### FXUS61 KCAR 170825 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 425 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will slowly cross the state today. Low pressure will approach tonight and slowly cross the region through Sunday night, then slowly exit to the east Monday through Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An occluded front will continue to gradually shift eastwards across the forecast area early this morning, bringing rain showers along, particularly across the north. A brief pause in rain showers will exist behind this boundary, though diurnal heating today may result in a return of scattered showers throughout the area. The core of the occluded low will approach from the west later today, providing further instability. The greatest chance for any thunderstorm activity will be along the western border of the CWA, where the most clearing early on will be. Otherwise, the area will likely be too stable for much CAPE development with little to no lightning chances. Cooler weather today into tonight is expected, particularly as the cold conveyor belt wraps around the occluded low into the night tonight. More widespread rain showers are in store for the forecast area this evening through the overnight hours as the low center begins to slowly march from west to east through the area. There is still some uncertainty of whether or not a well defined triple point low will develop along the coast while the occlusion crosses our area. If this does occur, rainfall may be enhanced locally along the coast. Otherwise, the marine layer will be too stable for any local enhancements to the rain showers. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Vertically stacked upper level low will cross the region Sunday through Sunday night. This results in continued unsettled weather with showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorms. Showers will continue Sunday night and Monday as the vertically stacked upper low continues east. Lows Sunday night will range from the low to mid 40s across the north and upper 40s to around 50 for Bangor and Downeast. Afternoon highs on Monday will only range from the lower 50s north and mid to upper 50s for Bangor and Downeast. The low will start to exit to the east Monday with continued showers. But as the low move further east later Monday night shower chances will be decreasing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Vertically stacked low pressure continues to move south and east of the Canadian Maritime provinces on Tuesday. As the vertically stacked system continues to move away on Tuesday, shower chances will continue to decrease to scattered to isolated by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night through much of Wednesday appears mainly dry, as upper level ridging and drier air builds in ahead of the next upper level low advancing from the west. Shower chances begin to increase once again Thursday night into Friday, as the upper level low crosses the region by late week and into next weekend. Afternoon high temperatures Tuesday through Friday be several degrees below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions will likely continue through the day today and into tonight at Downeast terminals in persistent low ceilings and possible vis reductions in fog. Rain showers will move across the area today, and will lead to MVFR northern terminals dropping to IFR by this afternoon, and potentially LIFR at northern terminals as well tonight. SE winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable overnight. SHORT TERM: Sun and Sun Night...MVFR/IFR expected in showers and low cigs. N wind around 10 kt. Mon and Mon night...MVFR or lower possible. N to NW wind G25 KT possible. Tue...MVFR/VFR. Sct to isold showers. Tue night and Wed...MVFR/VFR trending VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas likely to remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Areas of fog to remain over the waters today through this evening, with rain moving in later today into tonight. Winds may briefly increase towards 20 to 25 kts as rain showers move in this evening. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through much of the period. Areas of fog may reduce visibility to 1 NM or less at times Sunday morning and again Monday morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...AStrauser/TWD Marine...AStrauser/TWD ####018004712#### FXUS64 KMAF 170825 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 325 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 321 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - High winds and blowing dust expected early next week, mainly in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. - Critical fire weather conditions expected to impact southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas today and Monday. - Well above normal temperatures continue into the coming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Hot and breezy conditions return today as southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of a mid level shortwave. Thick high clouds will limit mixing across the Permian Basin, but further west skies will clear helping to promote stronger winds. Gusts will reach near 50 mph in the higher terrain and near 40 mph in the plains. Temperatures look hot today, even with the clouds. Highs will top out in the mid 90s for most locations with 100s along the Rio Grande. After a mild night with temperatures well above normal, Sunday looks like a repeat of today. Deep southwesterly flow continues as another trough digs to our west. Similar to today, winds will become gusty by afternoon and likely a touch higher. Have posted a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains where gusts near 60 mph are likely. Temperatures will top out once again in the 90s for most with 100s becoming more widespread along the Pecos and Rio Grande Rivers. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Heading into Sunday night, an upper low moves out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains. Winds will increase late Monday and a front moves through early Tuesday. This puts temperatures near normal in the mid to upper 80s for most with 90s down across the Big Bend. By Wednesday, the upper low will have moved out of the area. Temperatures rebound quickly with mid to upper 90s returning nearly areawide by the end of the week. Long range guidance keeps low(<30%) rain chances across the Davis Mountains southward for Thursday and Friday this coming week as an upper low sits just to the west. Details will become clearer next week, so stay tuned! -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR continues through the period. Southwest winds will increase mid morning with gusts near 25kts by afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be in effect for this afternoon/evening as winds increase across southeast New Mexico and western portions of the CWA as a shortwave trough passes over. With downslope flow across the region, temperatures warm 5-10 degrees above normal with min RHs settling in the single digits. These conditions will allow finer fuels to more rapidly cure. However, plenty of high clouds will help mitigate the overall fire threat. A near repeat of conditions is expected on Sunday and thus a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening. However, winds will be slightly stronger on Sunday and with an extra 24 hours of drying, fuels will be more susceptible to burning should a fire start occur. Further fire weather products will likely be necessary for Monday as RFTIs continue to show critical fire weather conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 95 68 97 64 / 10 10 0 20 Carlsbad 92 62 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 100 71 103 71 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 97 69 99 66 / 10 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 84 61 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 90 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 88 59 90 56 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 95 67 97 64 / 10 10 0 10 Odessa 94 66 96 64 / 10 10 0 10 Wink 96 63 96 60 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX... High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...29 ####018009617#### FXUS63 KMKX 170825 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 325 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light sprinkles & rain showers (~15-40% chances) continue through this morning, particularly along and north of I-94/US-18. - Below-normal high temps continue today through the middle of next week. - Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms (generally ~25-60% chances) return Monday through Wednesday ahead of the next disturbance, with the best potential over southwest and south- central Wisconsin. - High temperatures rebound back toward normal by the end of the next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 328 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Today through Sunday Night: Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Upper low pressure continues to linger across the western Great Lakes this morning, leaving most of the state under mostly cloudy skies. A shortwave is pivoting around the southwest flank of the upper low, with GOES water vapor imagery placing the feature over the Black River Falls vicinity as of 3 AM. Lift along/ahead of the shortwave has encouraged scattered sprinkle and shower development, with a scattering of stations from the Wisconsin River Valley to Stevens Point reporting light rain. The aforementioned shortwave will continue to pivot east this morning, bringing additional rain shower chances to areas primarily along and north of I-94 & US-18. Conditions will dry out this afternoon as the shortwave & its parent upper low pull east into the Saint Lawrence Valley. High pressure will build into the region tonight through Sunday, bringing partly cloudy skies and lighter surface winds. Currently moving onshore the Oregon Pacific coast, the next disturbance will shift through the Great Basin & central Rockies today/tonight, ultimately ejecting into the Central Plains Sunday afternoon. The feature's ejection will encourage widespread shower and thunderstorm development in the Central Plains Sunday afternoon, with activity attempting to advance toward southwest Wisconsin in its decaying stages during the predawn hours Monday. Current expectations are that this precip will remain southwest of the region, though trends will continue to be monitored. Today: Showers will linger through this morning. Best potential will focus to the north of I-94 and US-18, where proximity to the passing shortwave will be greatest. Despite greater distance from the passing shortwave, an isolated shower or sprinkle can't be entirely ruled out further south, where slight chance precip probabilities have been maintained in the overnight update. Conditions will dry out this afternoon, with continued brisk winds making it feel noticeably cooler relative to previous days. Sunday: With high pressure moving into the western Great Lakes, more sunshine is anticipated. This should result in milder high temperatures relative to today across most of southern Wisconsin, though much weaker synoptic flow will allow the lake breeze to quickly mix inland during the afternoon hours. Thus anticipate relatively wide west-east spread in high temperatures Sunday afternoon, with readings in the 60s along/west of I-41 and 50s further east. Sunday Night: Decaying showers/thundershowers will attempt to advance toward southwestern Wisconsin during the predawn hours, but will struggle to maintain themselves as they encounter antecedent high pressure. Have thus maintained a completely dry forecast in the overnight update, but will continue to monitor trends. Quigley && .LONG TERM... Issued 328 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Monday through Friday: There is some uncertainty during this period as extended models have some timing and placement differences with the upper low and associated sfc low that will move ewd across the central USA. Initially expect a dry enely sfc flow emanating from a large Hudson Bay high pressure area to hold back rain for Monday. Low pressure will then track from the central Great Plains to srn IA or nrn MO by 12Z Tue as an upper wave rotates around the upper low. The upper low will then track into IA on Tue and nrn IL Tue nt while the sfc low moves toward the Ohio River Valley. Thus lift and moisture will be sufficiently close for rain (60-80 percent) Tue- Tue nt, but lesser chances (40-50 percent) toward central WI. As the low moves to the ern Ohio River Valley, occlusion may occur and retrograde over srn Ontario and surrounding areas. This will impact whether high pressure and pleasant wx returns for Thu-Fri or is delayed. The NBM rainfall amounts at this time range from a quarter inch over central WI to an inch near the IL border with shifts to the north or south highly probable. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 328 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 A mixture of VFR and MVFR flight categories prevail early this morning as low pressure lingers over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Affiliated with an approaching disturbance, light -SHRA and -DZ has been observed at MSN and at stations in the Wisconsin River Valley. Precip has been accompanied by lowered CIG readings, with several sites west of MSN reporting MVFR as of midnight. The aforementioned disturbance will continue to progress across southern Wisconsin this morning, bringing reduced CIGs & possible precipitation to all aerodromes. Have accounted for potential precip with PROB30 and TEMPO groups at MSN and SBM, where forecast confidence is highest. The lowered CIGs will result in reduced flight categories by sunrise at all fields. Expect mostly MVFR reductions, but will be monitoring for brief periods of IFR, particularly in the vicinity of MSN and SBM. -SHRA and -DZ will conclude this afternoon as the upper disturbance pushes east. Anticipate improvements to VFR in the wake of departing precip, particularly at southern terminals. Have inserted prevailing VFR back into the forecast near the end of the period at SBM, though some model guidance suggests that MVFR categories could struggle to dissipate. Will thus be monitoring trends for potential amendments in the coming forecasts. Currently gusty west-southwest winds will weaken & shift out of the west-northwest tonight as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 328 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Breezy west-southwest winds continue across Lake Michigan this morning as 992 mb low pressure lingers near the northern open waters. Breezy conditions will continue through today as the aforementioned area of low pressure migrates toward the Ontario- Quebec border. Wind directions will turn west-northwesterly tonight as 1030 mb high pressure moves toward the Hudson Bay vicinity. The approach of this area of high pressure will allow winds to taper during the second half of the overnight hours tonight. Winds will turn due northerly during the day on Sunday as high pressure pivots into far northern Ontario. Wind speeds will increase during the day on Monday as 1032 mb high pressure lingers over the Hudson Bay vicinity and 998 mb low pressure forms in the central Great Plains. Brisk winds will continue into the day on Tuesday, shifting east-northeasterly as the aforementioned area of low pressure moves into the Ohio River Valley during the afternoon hours. The low will move into the Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday, resulting in a northerly wind shift across Lake Michigan. Given that low pressure will be approaching and passing to the south of the open waters, winds will be gusty on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Gales are not anticipated at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored in the coming forecasts. The approaching low will also bring chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms, with severe weather not expected. Winds will gradually taper Thursday into Friday, when 1022 mb high pressure is forecast to settle into the western Great Lakes. Gusty winds continue in nearshore zones into the first half of this evening, when conditions will begin to taper from south to north. Given the south-north delay, have thus elected to extend the Small Craft Advisory through 10 PM CDT from North Point to Sheboygan. The Small Craft Advisory will expire as scheduled at 7 PM CDT further south. Winds will be lighter on Sunday as high pressure builds into the Northern Plains. Both wind gusts and wave heights will increase ahead of approaching low pressure Sunday night, resulting in the return of Small Craft Advisory conditions by early Monday morning. Anticipate that gusts and waves will remain elevated through at least mid-week, resulting in a prolonged period of hazardous conditions through Thursday morning. Will address the prolonged period of impacts with an additional Small Craft Advisory in later forecasts. Quigley && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 10 PM Saturday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee