####018005377#### FXUS64 KTSA 160244 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 944 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms chances expected for southeast OK / northwest AR through the early evening. - An unsettled weather pattern continues through the weekend and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are expected at times. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 938 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Stalled frontal boundary lies across extreme SE OK northeastward through western AR. Persistent warm advection atop this boundary has maintained light showers and isolated thunderstorms which is likely to persist into the overnight hours. A few members of short term guidance solutions have offered a scenario with isolated strong storms developing overnight in vicinity of the boundary. While coverage would likely be low, ample elevated instability and effective shear is present to support this risk. Otherwise, expect the boundary to begin lifting northward late tonight and be a focus for possible storms developing across NE OK into NW AR by mid to late morning Friday. The overnight forecast is in good shape and only minor adjustments made primarily to incorporate observed trends. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Low level winds will reverse to southerly Saturday morning with moisture quickly moving northwards again. However, another boundary will quickly begin sweeping it back to the east by mid morning. A few storms may develop along or ahead of this boundary in northwest AR. Any storms that do form may become severe with plenty of instability, moisture, and shear present. However, CAMs have not been too excited for our area given robust mid level capping and the fact that the initiating feature isn't all that strong. This should keep the best severe probabilities east, but confidence isn't particularly high either, and it wouldn't be surprising if storms did form a bit further west. CAMs then show another round of storms along the boundary in the late afternoon or evening, but these will probably be either right on the edge of the area or south/east. It'll be another warm day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. One more boundary moves through Saturday morning, after which deep moisture will spread over the entire area. There is no point in getting too specific on details later Saturday through Tuesday as confidence is low on when exact features will move through, and details will be dependent on what happens the day before. With that said, the general pattern will be one of good ascent due to a favorable jet and incoming upper level low. We will have sustained low level warm and moist advection. Therefore, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely. Given the time of year and general favorable thermodynamics, severe thunderstorms are expected at times, with potentially all hazards. Stay tuned, as things may get pretty busy. By Tuesday the main storm system will eject across the area, with cooler and drier air moving in behind it. High temperatures will drop and humidity will diminish for a few days. Low temperatures may even return to the 40s for the cool spots by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Light rain showers continue to spread northeastward across southeast OK and northwest AR early this evening. Kept VCSH at MLC and FSM through the next hour or so. Latest hi-res model guidance suggests another burst of showers and thunderstorms developing across far southeast OK and western AR by or around 03z/10PM. Did include a PROB30 group for the chance of -TSRA for a few hours at FSM to reflect this, though confidence of this occurring is low- medium at this time. There could be some MVFR cigs that develop with this activity, if these showers/storms verify. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the overnight period. Confidence has increased slightly for MVFR ceilings developing by mid-late morning Friday. Southeast OK into northwest AR would have the greatest potential, with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into early-mid afternoon at the AR TAF sites. VFR should prevail by late afternoon or early evening Friday. Lastly, winds will veer out of the west, increase, and may become gusty Friday morning through the afternoon as another cold front moves through the area. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 88 57 84 / 0 10 0 20 FSM 67 89 62 88 / 20 30 10 20 MLC 64 87 61 88 / 10 10 10 30 BVO 54 86 52 81 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 61 84 57 85 / 10 30 0 20 BYV 61 84 58 84 / 20 30 0 20 MKO 60 86 58 85 / 0 20 0 20 MIO 58 84 54 81 / 0 20 0 10 F10 60 87 59 86 / 0 10 0 20 HHW 69 88 64 87 / 20 10 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...67 ####018003552#### FXUS65 KPIH 160244 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 844 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms this evening then drying overnight. - Another potent low pressure system expected for the weekend bringing more rain/storms and cold temperatures Sunday after milder temperatures on Saturday. - Gradual improvement expected early next week with a warmup likely mid/late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 A weak short wave in cool northwesterly flow is kicking off showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly in the Upper Snake River Plain and eastern mountains with isolated coverage elsewhere. Will have at least a slight chance of convective activity through sunset. Have a lake wind advisory in effect for the American Falls Reservoir until 8 pm as sustained winds around 20 mph have been present since about 10 am and will also die down at sunset. Lows tonight mainly in the 20s and 30s mountains and 30s to around 40 valleys. Friday will be similar to today with another weak wave in more westerly flow aloft moving through Idaho with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected with the most coverage again in mountainous regions with at least a slight chance in valleys. Highs mainly in the 40s and 50s mountains and 50s to lower 60s valleys with sustained west to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph again in the Snake River Plain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the week, though given how cool we've been, that's not saying a whole lot. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s through most of the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain, but this "warmth" won't last long. By Saturday afternoon, our next system is moving into Eastern Idaho as an upper level trough arrives. The low itself will arrive late Sunday, but expect more widespread showers and storms to begin Saturday and continue through Sunday with some wrap-around moisture lingering in the eastern half of our CWA on Monday as the low splits, but still moves east/southeast. This system will drop temperatures into the 50s on Sunday and Monday before we begin to warm up once again with 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday with a few of us reaching the low 70s as early as Wednesday. This warm up comes as high pressure begins to build back in over the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 836 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Showers are mostly finished for today. Just expect some lingering light vicinity showers for KDIJ for a few more hours. Winds have dropped off for this evening. Winds will be breezy again by late tomorrow morning into the afternoon for most TAF sites. Expect gusts up to around 20 to 25 kts. Showers are likely again tomorrow afternoon with heating but will likely just be vicinity for most sites. KIDA and KDIJ have the best chance for showers on station. KDIJ also has best chance for any thunderstorms in the afternoon as well. Have added a Prob30 for thunderstorms for KDIJ. A prob30 for thunderstorms for KIDA may need to be added but currently thunderstorm chances for KIDA are very low. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GK LONG TERM...AMM AVIATION...TW