####018004708#### FXUS63 KOAX 160358 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1058 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy today and windy again Friday with gusts of 40-50+ mph. - A stormy pattern develops Sunday-Wednesday with a good chance for widespread rainfall, and potentially multiple severe weather episodes. - Don't overlook the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially Sunday-Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 We have scattered clouds across the region this afternoon as a weak shortwave moves across the area. Radar shows a few isolated showers and storms developing from the cu field across central Nebraska. For this reason, we've added a slight chance of showers and storms across more of northeast Nebraska than previously in the forecast. Instability combined with any outflow boundaries that may develop could lead to a couple funnel clouds or even a landspout this afternoon. A strong low pressure system is located to our north over the eastern Dakotas, creating a strong pressure gradient across our area this afternoon. This is the cause of the strong westerly winds we're seeing this afternoon, with gusts to 50 mph. This evening we will see the boundary layer decouple a bit bringing wind speeds down to more reasonable levels, but mid-morning on Friday these winds will ramp back up for another day of strong westerly winds on Friday. The Low finally exits stage right Friday night into Saturday allowing winds to relax with high pressure bringing back sunny skies. Winds will be light out of the northwest helping to keep temperatures mild with highs in the 70s. Ridging buckles up over the Central Plains this weekend as our next trough digs into the Four-Corners region. Sunday we'll see a strong surface low start to develop along the lee side of the Rockies in eastern Colorado which will pull a warm front north across our area Sunday evening. Models differ on timing of this frontal passage, with a greater severe threat if this front lifts north during the day, but still some threat overnight even if it waits to lift north until Monday morning. In the latter case, we'd have more of an elevated storm threat with potential for heavy rain, hail, and damaging winds. Monday looks like the day with higher potential for severe weather. Machine Learning algorithms are all highlighting our area for potential as the warm sector of this Low will be located across much of southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa. This area will see significant destabilization during the day with a dry line providing the trigger for initially discrete storms during the afternoon. All severe modes are in play for Monday, with the primary mode of failure being how far north the warm front gets Sunday night-Monday morning (possibly limiting the severe threat to areas to our south). Monday is certainly the day to watch for severe weather. Showers and storms will linger into Tuesday as we remain under the upper-level Low, with potential for cold-core funnels. We don't see the system completely exit our area until possibly as late as Wednesday afternoon, with scattered showers continuing until then. We see a transition back to northwesterly flow toward the second half of the week which may bring slightly cooler than normal temperatures going into next weekend. We'll need to monitor for potential flooding and flash flooding at times with these systems Sunday-Tuesday as we could see some training storms develop. The WPC is highlighting our area for potential excessive rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Winds have tanked for the night, though will still be able to gust to near 20 kts while winds at FL014-FL017 reach 45 kts -- resulting in low-level wind shear. Once 13z rolls around, winds will ramp back up, eventually increasing to 40-45 kts during the afternoon hours out of the west. Expect clouds to push southward from South Dakota, eventually bringing MVFR conditions to KOFK by 03z. By that time, winds will still be in the 25-35 kts heading into the overnight hours. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078. IA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-090. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Petersen ####018004271#### FXUS64 KOUN 160359 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1059 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Severe weather is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. - Above normal temperatures will continue well into next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 With a cooler air mass in place and thick cirrus overspreading the region, temperatures are running much cooler than yesterday (though still above average). Showers and thunderstorms will continue through about mid afternoon over southeast Oklahoma. Clouds will gradually clear out from the northwest. Quiet night tonight with lows in the 50s (NW OK) to mid 60s (SE OK). Day && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Friday looks fairly similar to Thursday as another front moves through the region. Most of the area will be under clear skies, allowing temperatures to get a bit warmer (highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s). There is a low chance for storms to develop along this front again in southeast Oklahoma, though most of the CAMs keep this later in the day and southeast of our forecast area. On the off chance the front is slower and/or storms fire off earlier, the atmosphere would support strong to severe storms in the southeast corner of our forecast area. The severe risk ramps up on Saturday as a shortwave is forecast to move across the region and trigger thunderstorms along and east of a dryline. We'll also have a retreating warm front and potential outflow from previous overnight convection as players in this setup. Instability and deep layer shear will be ample to support severe hazards, including a low risk for brief tornadoes. Initiation is expected late afternoon / evening. Day && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Additional rounds of severe weather will continue to be possible late in the weekend through the early portions of next week as a longwave mid-level wave meanders to the west, and the subtropical jet impinges on the southern Plains. On Sunday, moisture advection will help mid to upper 60s dewpoints make it to the KS/OK border by the early afternoon. A subtropical jet maxima will overspread the southern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening, which may provide the necessary lift for severe thunderstorm development along a dryline. The parameter space ahead of the dryline will support severe storms capable of all hazards. The main forcing is expected to move across the southern Plains Monday into Tuesday. Severe storms are possible again Monday into Tuesday morning as the kinematics and thermodynamics will be in place to support all hazards. With stronger forcing for ascent owing to the approaching wave, thunderstorm development appears likely at this time. There are some model solutions that suggest that additional forcing moves across the area by Tuesday afternoon, which could extend severe weather chances into Tuesday afternoon. Will need to monitor these trends as we get into the weekend. Bunker/Day && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Light south/southeast winds will veer to the west and then northwest as a cold front moves through. Stratus may develop across southeast Oklahoma tomorrow morning, which will likely impact KDUA. Winds will become light and variable tomorrow evening. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 55 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 61 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 30 Gage OK 53 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 55 85 54 81 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 67 90 64 89 / 10 10 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...10