####018006618#### FXUS65 KPUB 160448 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1048 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain showers expected this evening and tomorrow afternoon, with dry conditions elsewhere. - Increased fire weather concerns meteorologically Saturday into Sunday. - Increased chances for precipitation Monday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Tonight: Other than some mountain showers early, quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, a shortwave on the backside of a larger trough will push quickly over the area. With the uptick in forcing, and modest moisture in place, isolated to scattered light snow showers are expected to be ongoing during the evening hours along the mountains, where forcing will be greatest. With that said though, as diurnal instability wanes through the evening, showers will decrease in coverage, with dry conditions returning during the overnight hours. Beyond all of that, clouds over the area will clear for most throughout the night, with winds becoming light across the region, except along the mountains, where breezy winds will persist into Friday morning. As for temperatures, a cool and slightly below seasonal lows night is anticipated thanks to weakening winds and clearing skies. Given all of that, the plains will fall into the low to mid 40s, the valleys into the upper 20s to mid 30s, and the mountains into the 20s. Tomorrow: For the end of the week, quiet weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado, other than some afternoon mountain showers. Flow will become mostly westerly over the area throughout the day. While no major forcing is anticipated, modest orographic forcing will be ongoing, and this coupled with minor diurnal instability, is expected to allow for isolated light snow showers to blossom along the mountains during the afternoon. Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail. Otherwise, winds will remain breezy around 10 to 15 mph, with clear skies early becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon hours. Looking at temperatures, a warm but near seasonal value day is expected, with the plains rising into the 70s, the valleys into the 60s, and the mountains into the upper 30s to 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 There is decent model agreement with the upper level pattern evolution through the extended period, with differences in the small details. Friday night through Saturday...weak energy in westerly flow aloft will allow for ongoing evening convection, mainly across the Central Mountains. This activity looks to dissipate after sunset and the loss of daytime heating, with clearing conditions across the area by Saturday morning. On Saturday, a quick moving upper shortwave is forecast to track northeast out of New Mexico and into western Kansas by the evening. Southeasterly flow will spread across the Plains through the day. The GFS develops a dryline boundary, from the Palmer Divide, southeast to Baca County. The NAM and extended RRFS bring the southeasterly winds all the way back into the I-25 corridor. Moisture is limited, with dewpoints in the upper 30s, which limits afternoon instability, with up to 500 j/kg of SBCAPE on the Plains. The GFS is most aggressive with developing isolated thunderstorms from the Palmer Divide, into Kiowa County, while the higher-resolution guidance has a few storms further south. Not too excited overall, with the limited moisture and instability, however, a couple of storms could produce small hail and gusty outflow winds. Over the Mountains, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible, dissipating after sunset. For areas of the San Luis Valley, low relative humidity values and gusty winds will likely produce spotty, elevated fire weather conditions. Sunday...the next upper trough is forecast to dig across Utah and begin to impact southern Colorado. Increasing southwesterly flow will spread across the region, with low humidity values spreading from the San Luis Valley, into the Plains. Widespread, critical fire weather conditions will be present, and fuels will have to be monitored. Wind gusts in excess of 35 mph are forecast by the afternoon. This could lead to areas of blowing dust. Moisture will begin to spread into the Continental Divide by the afternoon, with increased showers during the evening and overnight. Monday into Tuesday...the upper trough will eject northeast by Monday morning, while a stronger system deepens on the back side and moves across Colorado Monday into Tuesday. This will send a cold front across the Plains Monday morning, along with the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of southern Colorado. The GFS brings decent QPF amounts to the Plains late Monday into Tuesday morning, while the rest of the long range guidance is more modest in totals. The GFS is also the most widespread with precipitation, with the ECMWF and ICON not as widespread. But, the potential does exist for precipitation for much of southern Colorado. Temperatures will be cooler Monday and Tuesday, with highs falling from the lower to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday, down into the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday into Thursday...flat zonal flow is forecast to develop for mid next week. Overall, not much energy in the flow to work with, with mainly dry conditions forecast for the region. Temperatures will also begin to increase with highs back near 80 during this time period. Mozley && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Winds will remain light with speeds under 10 kts from diurnally driven directions at KALS and KCOS overnight while KPUB continues to see some elevated west northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts at times. After a brief lull Friday morning, winds will increase again at all three terminals from the west to northwest by Friday afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts. Variable mid/high level cloudiness will overspread the region on Friday but conditions will remain VFR. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...KT