####018008562#### FXUS64 KEPZ 160453 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1053 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and seasonal temperatures Friday, becoming breezy on Saturday. - Another Pacific storm system will bring gusty winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather conditions back to the area Sunday and Monday. - Quiet weather returns Tuesday through Friday with temperatures warming into the mid and upper 90s in the middle and latter part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Satellite this afternoon shows a weak shortwave currently over the Great Basin will push across the area this afternoon. Ahead of the weak shortwave, models show weak troughing forming over portions of eastern Colorado. This is resulting in breezy conditions with gusts around 30 mph this afternoon. Some patchy blowing dust is possible along the International Border and from Deming west this afternoon. As we head into Friday, the Borderland will be under a broad longwave trough with west to southwest winds across area with some afternoon breeziness due to very weak troughing across far southeast Colorado. Models then show another shortwave trough moving over the Baja on Friday night with the GFS showing a closed low for a short period over portions of far northwest state of Sonora in Mexico. Both deterministic models then show the open wave moving northeast to the Arizona/New Mexico state line by Saturday morning. In response to the shortwave, flow throughout the column will begin to strengthen with the mid level jet of 40-50kt ahead of the trough on Saturday. The shortwave will move out of the northern state of Sorona in Mexico into far southern Arizona on Saturday morning. Model guidance then shows the shortwave trekking northeast over the Gila/Black and then into central New Mexico by Saturday night. As the shortwave moves through the area, this will bring some breezy conditions to the area with patchy blowing dust. Attention turns to the next system that will likely bring impacts to the Borderland Sunday into Monday. Models show a trough diving south out of British Columbia on Friday night. Both ensemble and deterministic guidance shows a deepening trough curving out over the Great Basin on Saturday. On the heels of the first system, another shortwave with a closed low will dive southeast into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday night. The closed low and trough will move into the northern Great Basin by Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, west to southwest flow ahead of the trough will strengthen resulting in breezy to windy conditions, some patchy blowing dust, and critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. Peak gusts in the lowlands on Sunday with the most current guidance will be in the 35-45 mph range and 50-55 mph range in the mountains and higher terrain areas. As we head into Monday, winds will be roughly around 2 to 4 mph higher in both the lowlands and mountain areas with more issues with blowing dust and critical fire weather conditions on Monday as the mid level jet of 60-70kt is right over the Borderland on Monday. At this time, winds will come close to the threshold that would generate wind products. For Tuesday, the main longwave trough will push to the east into the central Plains allowing for winds to tamper down as the influence of a ridge over the Pacific takes hold over the Desert Southwest. As we head into Thursday, the ridge will push east over portions of western Mexico with winds over lower Rio Grande Valley with winds turning to southeast in response to the ridge moving east on Wednesday night. This will allow moisture to be transported north and northeastward from the Gulf as early as Wednesday toward the Borderland. Both the GFS/ECMWF show the deepest moisture remaining to the east of the area in Culberson county, TX as flow at 700mb in a more southerly direction. In addition to the shallow moisture, ridging overhead will likely provide enough substance to deter any convection though it can not be ruled out entirely, thus barely mentionable POPs in far southern Hudspeth county on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will hover around normal values for this time of the year through early next week, then warm into the mid to upper 90s by the latter part of next week. An analysis of longer term ensembles shows around a 26% chance of reaching 100 degrees on Friday, and roughly a 50-60% chance south of Fabens in the lower valley during the same time frame. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-SCT250...BKN- OVC250 over Hudspeth County. Also some blowing dust possible until 02Z over El Paso/Hudspeth Counties, though may just result in some hazy skies. Surface winds west 10-15G25 knots until 03Z, then west/northwest AOB 8 knots. Winds increasing again after 18Z to southwest/west 12-17G25 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Near critical fire weather conditions are in the forecast through Friday as west winds will be breezy, but will remain below critical thresholds through Friday. Min RH values will remain in the single digits in the lowlands with lower teens in the mountains through at least the middle of next week across the area. By Saturday, enhanced fire weather conditions will return to the area with breezes from the southwest, very low RH values, and critically dry fuels as a disturbance pushes through the area. As we head into Sunday and Monday, as Pacific storm system will approaches the area bringing strong winds and back to back days of critical to extreme fire weather conditions to the Borderland. By Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure will build in behind the departing storm system bringing lighter winds to the area. A warming trend appears likely in the middle to latter parts of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 59 89 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 84 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 50 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 50 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 62 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 51 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 45 77 49 76 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 48 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 45 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 59 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 57 91 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 57 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 48 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 47 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 53 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 51 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 76 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 74 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 71 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 37 77 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 46 85 51 82 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 45 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 40 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 43 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 42 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 42 79 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 46 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 47 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 47 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 48 85 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner ####018005942#### FXUS63 KEAX 160455 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1155 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Largely seasonal to near-seasonal temperatures through the forecast, from the 70s to mid 80s. * Best rain and storm chances from Sunday through first half of the next week. - Increasing confidence in strong/severe, best chances currently appear as Monday/Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Comfort level today, thus far, has depended on which side of the dry line/cool front you resided. By early-mid morning, areas near/along the KS/MO border felt the relief, while areas around Kirksville and Moberly are just (as of 18z) seeing humidity fall and air temperature ease a couple degrees. Concurrent with the boundary/frontal passage has been dust from agricultural activity and generally dry conditions to the west of the region in KS/OK. Fortunately winds, while breezy, were not of significant enough strength to really produce reduced visibilities. A few sites did fall toward 4 to 6 miles, but generally briefly and has only been sporadic at sites east of the KC Metro. Degraded air quality, most significant for sensitive populations, will/has been the main consequence. Otherwise, very pleasant mid-May conditions as temperatures top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. For Friday, any storm opportunities within the forecast area will be dependent on a race between northward moisture transport on the backside of a Lower Mississippi Valley surface high and a secondary cold front wrapping around parent surface low over the Dakotas into Minnesota. Majority of guidance continues to keep the bulk of activity just outside of the forecast area and primarily into jurisdictions of SGF/LSX and eastward. Should warm front/moisture transport succeed in getting into the S/SE forecast area, there would be a risk for strong/severe storms, but quite limited in time frame with approaching cold front. With no significant trend northward, have kept PoPs just out of the CWA for the most part with prevailing expectation for bulk activity to be closer to I-44 and eastward. Towards N/NW Missouri, another windy day with westerly wind gusts up into the 30s mph possible. Weekend then starts out quite pleasant with increasing surface high influence, pleasant temperatures (70s/low 80s), and low humidity. By Sunday, large scale pattern shifts towards a much more active stance, at least as far as the central/southern Plains is concerned. Western CONUS trough digs into the desert SW and begins to kick out and taking on a somewhat negative tilt. There remains some variance in this progression, but largely depicts a secondary piece of energy riding through the flow, and effectively enacting a Fujiwara effect within the western trough. This slows its eastward progression such that strong/severe storm opportunities may be realized around or within the area from Sunday evening/night through Tuesday night. While nitty gritty details continue to come into focus, confidence in strong/severe potential grows with deterministic and ensemble depictions coming into better agreement. Purely going by conceptual model, there is little doubt in rounds of strong/severe weather potential/activity within the larger area (KS/MO/OK/AR) from Sunday thru Tuesday with the negative wave tilt, strong WAA and moisture return, supportive wind profiles, Lee Cyclogenesis, etc. This too is strongly bolstered by the various AI, Machine Learning, and analogue tools/guidance strongly highlighting Days 4-6 (Sun-Tue). SPC highlights much of this period with Days 4/5/6 15%. Do tend to agree with guidance that Monday/Monday evening appears to be the current best opportunity for strong/severe within the immediate area as a surface low is projected to slide across N Kansas/SE Nebraska, placing area within warm sector and in vicinity of both warm front and dry line. All modes would potentially be in play. Sunday evening/overnight is not necessarily out of the question either as genesis area over KS/OK expected to grow into a progressive MCS, but likely weakening given more likely evening/overnight time frame. Of note too will be the potential for a hydrologic threat given possible/likely multiple rounds of convective precipitation over this time frame (Sun-Tue) or longer. Euro/GFS ensembles largely depict 2" to 4" over this time frame, but inevitably with convection more localized greater amounts could be expected. While WPC ERO does have a Day 4 Slight (Sunday/Sunday night) with first wave of convection/MCS, do tend to think the threat tends to be greater come Monday/Tuesday with the subsequent opportunities, of which WPC too does have a Slight risk within the area for Day 5/Monday. A lot to watch and digest over the coming days with regards to severe and hydro threats. By Tuesday onward, western trough kicks out into the Plains and synoptic guidance tends to diverge in this handling. May be another opportunity for strong/severe Tuesday, but confidence wanes at this point. Hydrologic threat too may persist before conditions suggested to dry out mid-late week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected to persist through the period. 10 knot SSW winds overnight will turn southwesterly by around 15z Friday, eventually becoming westerly and increasing with gusts up to 25 knots by around 21z Friday afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...BMW