####018008324#### FXUS63 KGRR 181735 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 135 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of Showers/Storms Through Sunday with Locally Heavy Rain, Windy Sunday - Another Period of Rain and Wind Monday Night through Tuesday - Unsettled Weather Wednesday through Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Periods of Showers/Storms Through Sunday with Locally Heavy Rain, Windy Sunday No noteworthy changes to the forecast are needed compared to yesterday's day shift forecast. A few light showers have made it to the NW corner of our forecast area this morning. Much more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are currently over the SE half of Wisconsin as of 3 am EDT this morning. This area of rain seems to be directly correlated to the 40+ knot low level jet centered over that area. These showers and storms are expected to move over our area toward and just after daybreak as the low level jet axis shifts eastward over the area. The showers and storms over IA are likely the area that will move overhead. The storms with this should not initially be capable of much beyond rain and lightning as these storms are elevated in nature. They could strengthen a bit before moving out as they may be able to tap some additional instability that may build with some diurnal heating. We expect additional showers and storms to develop this afternoon with MU CAPEs building to 500+ J/kg. This will likely be across the SE corner of the forecast area as some of those areas may just miss out on the morning convection, and some better instability will build. In addition to better instability, it will become more sfc based, and it will have good deep layer effective shear values of 40- 50 knots, and some decent low level shear values with 30 knots of the low level jet remaining over the SE corner of the area. Can not rule out some localized wind with DCAPEs 700-800 J/kg, or some small hail with mid level lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km. The stronger deep layer shear could help some of the storms rotate aloft if enough instability can sync up with the stronger shear. We will then watch the heaviest of the rain move in by late evening, and continue through a good portion of the night. The sfc low will be driven by the long wave trough coming in. At the same time, we will see a short wave ride up along the front, and induce a nice band of FGEN just NW of the sfc low due to the interaction. This plethora of forcing will be acting on an atmosphere that will have 200-250% of Precipitable water values normal for this time of the year. This looks to squeeze out a good 1-3 inches, with the heaviest axis between GR and Lansing. Please see the Hydrology discussion below for more details. The heavy rain will move out by Sunday morning, but we are looking at another full day of steady rainfall to occur over the area. This will be the case with the long wave trough coming in and interacting with the residual moisture.. - Another Period of Rain and Wind Monday Night through Tuesday After a break Sunday night and much of Monday, we are looking at another period of showers developing Monday night. This system will be coming in from the NW, vs. the system that will be coming in from the SW tonight. Initially moisture will be limited coming in from the NW. A long trajectory of low level flow will begin tapping Gulf moisture once again, and will be absorbed by low. The winds with this system will be somewhat similar in magnitude with a strong pressure gradient developing on the stronger sfc low. The difference with this system is it will drag a bit more of colder air in over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Michigan. 850 mb temperatures will be dropping to as low at -2C, yielding delta t's in the mid to upper teens. This scenario will likely kick up some lake effect rain showers for the lakeshore counties with a flow from the NNW. - Unsettled Weather Wednesday through Friday Wednesday will see some residual lake effect rain showers earlier, before they should diminish through the day. Some weak ridging will build in for Thursday. The long wave flow will feature more troughing over the region lingering from the systems passing through. We could see another short wave dive in for Friday, bringing another threat of rain showers. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon except for the potential for heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms bringing briefly lower ceilings and visibilities in heavy rain late this afternoon across southeast Lower Michigan from LAN to JXN. Then steady rain will move in from the south tonight with conditions falling to IFR after midnight and some patchy LIFR by 12Z. Winds will be south into this evening around 10 knots them go northwest on Sunday and gust over 20 knots by the afternoon with some gusts over 30 knots possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 We will be upgrading the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for Sunday and Sunday evening. Gales (34+ knots) look to be a certainty on the backside of the low as it departs Sunday morning. The highest winds will likely be Sunday morning as the colder air on the backside of the system rushes in, and coinciding with the pressure fall/rise couplet. Winds and waves will subside a bit for Monday, before coming up significantly on Tuesday with the next system. This system looks to bring Gales to the nearshore waters also. Obviously a bit of time to monitor that. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Significant rainfall is expected over the next several days across much of Lower Michigan. The total amount of rain we are expecting continues to slowly nudge upwards as forecast details come into focus. The rain will be spread out over several rounds, primarily spanning Saturday and Sunday, with the heaviest rain currently expected before/during sunrise on Sunday. Overall averages across much of the area will probably end up in the 1 to 2 inch range, with some multi-county streaks of 2-3"+. The good news is that because we're in a drought, the rivers have plenty of room to put this water. Some of the midsized rivers in the area like Sycamore Creek (Holt), Buck Creek (Grandville), and the Looking Glass River (Eagle) are the most likely to see rises close to bankfull, but no river flooding is expected unless this storm seriously overperforms our expectations. It would probably take 4"+ over a fairly large area to begin flooding the midsized tributaries mentioned above. Nevertheless, with water levels currently running lower than normal due to the drought, notable within-bank rises are expected across minor flooding develop in the classic low spots and other poor drainage areas. It's hard to pin down which urban areas would be most at risk of this happening, but recent model trends suggest the eastern edges of our area are most at-risk, which would include Lansing and Jackson areas. Anyone with personal property near the waters edge leftover from the summer should prepare for rising water. While river flooding isn't a big concern, if some slow-moving heavy rain bands park over some of our urban areas we could see some localized minor flooding develop in the classic low spots and other poor drainage areas. It's hard to pin down which urban areas would be most at risk of this happening, but recent model trends suggest the eastern edges of our area are most at-risk, which would include Lansing and Jackson areas. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. Gale Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Ostuno MARINE...NJJ HYDROLOGY...AMD ####018007317#### FXUS65 KPUB 181735 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1135 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have been issued for the entirety of our plains tonight. Take steps to protect sensitive plants and outdoor equipments today before subfreezing temperatures arrive tonight! - Near normal temperatures, sunny skies, and breezy north winds are expected across both the high country and the plains today. - Gusty winds possible late Sunday night into Monday morning along the lee slopes. Frost possible over the Plains again Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Currently.. Water vapor imagery shows the upper trough continuing to slide off to our east, which will eventually allow for more northerly and northeasterly flow across the area later today. For early this morning though, clear skies have been offset by increased mixing, allowing us to stay slightly warmer than we were last night, and a lot warmer than we are looking to be tonight. Most of the plains are are still in the upper 30s and 40s as of 1 AM, and mountain valleys are in the low to mid 30s as well. Dew points are in the teens and 20s over the high country, and 20s to 30s over the plains. Winds are mainly westerly to northerly. Today and Tonight.. Models suggest that the trough axis will be east of us in the next few hours, and this seems reasonable given its location on satellite early this morning. This will leave us in increasing northwesterly flow throughout the day today, with clear skies and brisk northerly winds that will become more northeasterly throughout the afternoon and evening hours as the trough continues to push eastwards. Gusts to 30 mph are likely through Pueblo and El Paso counties today, with gusts closer to 35 mph likely over our far eastern plains. Temperatures will be fairly similar to yesterday and rather close to seasonal normals as well. This will mean highs in the mid 60s for mountain valleys and El Paso County, with low to mid 70s for the rest of our plains. Skies will be sunny. Apparent temperatures will be slightly cooler given the breezy winds. For tonight, our first Freeze is likely for much of our plains, especially along and north of Highway 50, and along I-25. These are areas are likely to see several hours of temperatures below 32 degrees early Sunday morning, and have been placed under a Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening through 9 AM Sunday morning. Eastern Las Animas County and and Baca counties will not be quite as cold, but have also been placed under a Frost Advisory through the same timeframe, and can expect a few hours of near freezing temperatures tonight. In both locations, outdoor plants and vegetation may killed if left uncovered tonight, and unprotected outdoor plumbing may also be damaged tonight as well. Take steps to protect sensitive plants and outdoor equipment today before freezing temperatures arrive tonight across all of our plains! && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 No significant changes ot the extended period, with slightly better agreement with the system Wed-Thurs next week. Sunday...after a cold start, temperatures will warm well into the 70s across the Plains. This is due to enhanced mixing as an upper trough drop out of the Northern Rockies, and westerly flow increases by the afternoon. Humidity values will fall to under 15 percent, however, winds will be slower to mix down and late in the day. There could be spotty fire weather conditions this afternoon, mainly in gap wind prone areas, but coverage and duration are somewhat limited. Still, caution is advised with outdoor burning activities in those wind prone areas. Sunday night through Tuesday...model guidance is a bit further west with the upper storm track, and puts the Palmer Divide region in the westerly flow trough base, as opposed to glancing northwesterly flow. Model guidance has increased winds along the Eastern Mountains and lee slopes late Sunday night into Monday morning. The shear structure is very forward, and should help limit wave activity. That being said, an occasional gust near 50 mph may be possible along the lee slopes heading into Monday morning. These winds will also keep overnight lows on the warmer side, with mid slope areas in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while the rest of the Plains sees 40s for lows. By Monday, the main upper trough will shift well to our east and send a cold front across the Plains by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler, with lower to mid 70s across the lower elevations. Winds will increase behind the front late in the day, and shift northerly. A few gusts near 40 mph may be possible out near the Kansas border. Winds look to subside overnight, as the upper system continues east, and upper ridging moves into Colorado. Temperatures will likely fall overnight into Tuesday morning, with another frost or freeze possible. Again, those with sensitive plants, exposed hoses and pipes may want to consider taking precautions to protect them. The upper ridge axis will shift east across Colorado on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler, with mainly 60s across the region for highs. Wednesday through Thursday...models in better agreement on the storm track, bring an upper low from the Desert Southwest across Colorado. There does continue to be differences timing. Scattered rain and high elevation snow showers will move into the Continental Divide by Wednesday afternoon. The upper system then forecast to track east across Colorado and into Kansas on Thursday. Low chances for showers will be possible across the region Wednesday night into Thursday, before precipitation comes to an end Thursday evening. The GFS remains the fastest solution, ending precipitation earlier, while the ECMWF and Canadian are a bit slower and hang on the precipitation longer. Temperatures in the NBM guidance likely a bit warm, with highs in the 60s and 70s, and they will likely need to be adjusted. Snow levels will remain high, with minor accumulations above 10 kft. Friday and Saturday...upper level high pressure will fill in behind the departing system, with a return to dry and mild conditions heading into next week. Mozley && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Plan on gusty N-NE Surface winds this afternoon, with gusts nearing 30 kts for KCOS and KPUB from 20z until 01z. Moore && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ084>089-093-095>098. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ094-099. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...MOORE ####018006752#### FXUS63 KGLD 181735 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1135 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds, with gusts up to 55 MPH, are forecast today. Winds may also lead to blowing dust reducing air quality and visibility, especially near recently harvested fields. - A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern Colorado, southwest Nebraska, the Highway 27 corridor, along with Thomas and Rawlins county in Kansas Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the remainder of the area. - Another cold front with strong winds and perhaps dust may occur Monday. - Freezing temperatures are possible again Tuesday morning (Oct 21). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Cold front has moved through the area and winds are starting to pick up as cold air advection and 850mb and 700mb jets strengthen. Generally wind gusts from the north of 40-55 mph are forecast. Although would not be surprised if some isolated instances of around 60 mph wind gusts occurs especially after 3pm as the 700mb strengthens to around 45-55 knots and diurnal mixing will be at its peak. Still can't rule out some spotty blowing dust during the afternoon hours but lapse rates are a little marginal and the overall strength of the wind really dont lead to me to believe that much dust can get lofted. Continue to think that any dust would be relegated to near recently plowed/harvested fields resulting in spotty locales of visibility falling under 1 mile. Have noticed some increasing mid level moisture via the 15Z RAP13 which may support some sprinkles or light showers but think that with the drier air at the surface if anything were to occur it would be sprinkles at best. Drier air is forecast to move in eroding any clouds that do manage to sneak into the area from the north. A surface high which is currently across Wyoming is forecast into the area along/just west of the Kansas/Colorado line will lead to a period of light and variable winds. This along with continued cold air advection will set the stage for the first frost and freezes for the area. I did expand the Freeze Warning to include Thomas county as there has been a subtle eastward shift of the high and guidance has come in colder as well. Some guidance does still have the high moving through quicker allowing winds to become more southwesterly sooner, if that does occur then more of a downsloping component would ensue keeper temperatures a bit warmer than what is forecasted. Sunday, surface troughing moves into the area allowing the area to warm up albeit more than today despite being the wake of the cold front with highs currently forecast in the in the low to mid 70s. Breezy winds are forecast to continue with the trough gusting 20-30 mph before slowly waning through the afternoon. With the drier air remaining in place behind the front RH values are forecast to fall into the mid teens to low 20s across nearly the entire forecast area. Some localized critical fire weather conditions may be possible west of the Colorado/Kansas state line but with the winds forecast to decline through the afternoon confidence is not there for 3 or more hours of critical conditions to warrant any fire weather highlights at this time. Through the evening another system across the northern Plains intensifies as a cold front approaches the area as winds shift to the north again. Winds do appear to remain breezy through the night Sunday and into Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Starting the extended period, a surface trough develops shifting winds to the southwest leading to a little bit of a warmup into the mid to upper 70s. The main focus for the extended period will be another strong cold front moving through the area associated with yet another low across the northern Plains. The wind field with this front at this time is quite a bit stronger than the one currently forecast on Saturday as forecast soundings such as the 12Z GFS has 55-60 knot winds at the top of the mixing layer. After collaboration with surrounding offices have nudged winds up in the forecast to account for this. Blowing dust potential, assuming these winds hold may also be a bit higher than what is currently forecast for Saturday, due to stronger wind field and having multiple days of further drying of the top soils. Will also need to keep an eye on fire weather as well as elevated conditions are currently forecast. In wake of the front another surface high moves in which at this time looks to be a bit broader. At this time another frost/freeze will be on the table as well along with the potential for a more widespread freeze as well. Will hold off on introducing frost into the grids at this time to see how the Sunday morning freeze plays out as the growing season may come to and end for some. Midweek another wave moves across the area. Guidance has been consistently suggesting this to be more compact. This looks to be the area's next potential for some rainfall but will depend on the final placement of this system, if it drops to far south then the rain chances decrease. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period. Winds have begun to increase across the area gusting 30-40 knots. Can't completely rule out a rogue gust around 45 knots at some point this afternoon. Confidence is not there to continue to keep BLDU in the TAF as current thinking if any occurs it will be more localized. If this changes will issue an AMD. Winds are forecast to continue through the afternoon before waning this evening as a gradual shift to a more southerly direction occurs around 12Z or so. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-041. Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ003-004-015-016-028-029-042. CO...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg ####018003057#### FXUS62 KTBW 181736 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 136 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain-free conditions will hold for most of the week, except for a slight chance Sunday afternoon and evening across the Nature Coast - Cooler weather returns behind cold front on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 We are enjoying a sunny and low humidity day across West Central Florida. As we head into our Sunday a weak cold front will start to approach the area. This will start to increase humidity throughout the day. Hi Res models are also starting to show some rain showers chances as the front approaches the Nature Coast. Because of this we have added a 30 to 40 percent PoP across that area. The rest of us are still expected to stay dry. This front will actually end up stalling and dissipating across the area on Monday. This will result in some higher humidity and temperatures to start the work week. Another strong cold front is expected to quickly move through on Thursday. We are not looking at any rain shower chances associated with this front but we will see some lower temperatures and dewpoints again. The coolest morning will be Friday with lows in the 50's along the Nature Coast and the low 60's everywhere else. High on Friday will be in the low to mid 80's. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be out of the east and shift more southeasterly late in the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A weak cold front will be heading our way overnight. This will allow winds to start shifting southerly. We will also see winds increasing again overnight with close to SCEC across much of the Gulf. Those winds will slowly start decrease throughout the day on Sunday. Winds will start to shift northeasterly on Monday and stay around 10 to 15 knots through Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Humidity will increase slightly for Sunday and through the middle part of the work week due to a weak cold front that will stall and dissipate over the area. Most of the area will be staying dry with the only chance of rain being along the Nature Coast Sunday afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 70 87 73 / 0 0 20 20 FMY 87 68 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 85 66 89 70 / 0 0 10 20 SRQ 86 68 86 72 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 86 62 88 65 / 0 0 20 20 SPG 84 71 84 73 / 0 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery ####018004727#### FXUS63 KLSX 181737 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1237 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain is expected today and this evening with some locally heavy rainfall possible across southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. - In addition, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the primary threat being damaging winds. - A front will move through the area tonight bringing cooler temperatures that will last through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Latest surface analysis shows a front extends across central Iowa through far northwest Iowa into eastern Kansas. Regional radar is showing showers and thunderstorms moving northeast ahead of this front across north central Missouri into southeast Iowa. This activity will move across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois through sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms are also developing over northeast Oklahoma and southwest Oklahoma that will eventually move into the CWA after sunrise. This activity will expand in area and increase in intensity this morning, mainly along and south of I-44 as ascent increases underneath the entrance region of a jet streak over the upper Midwest. By afternoon, an approaching shortwave trough will bring even more ascent at the same time that HREF is showing PWATS over >95% of climo across the southeast half of the CWA justifying 70-100% PoPs. As we go into this evening, a second, deeper trough will dig into Missouri and Illinois from the Upper Midwest and become negatively tilted. This trough along with notable 700-850mb frontogenesis and aforementioned jet stream dynamics will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm development across southeast and east central Missouri as well southwest Illinois into this evening. Forecast rainfall amounts along and south of I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois are 2-3"+ with the HREF probabilities showing a 20-40% chance of 4"+ over southeast Missouri. This seems reasonable given the PWATS, warm cloud depths, and the potential for training. Will continue to hold off on issuing a Flood Watch at this point given the severe drought conditions. There still remains a narrow window for severe weather today, though the amount of convection and resulting clouds will temper the available instability. With this said, available CAMS including the HRRR are showing high reflectivity cores and short updraft helicity swaths this afternoon over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois given modest MLCAPEs and deep layer shear near 50 knots. If enough instability develops, a few severe storms remain possible with the main threat being damaging winds, with a tornado or two possible along with some large hail. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The rain is expected to move out of the area early on Sunday morning with dry weather expected through Wednesday. The LREF is showing another trough moving across the area on Tuesday with rain staying north of the area. The next chance of showers will wait until Thursday and Friday when a southern stream upper low will move into the Midwest. Highs will fall off back into the lower to mid 60s on Sunday but climb back into the 70s ahead of a cold front on Monday before dropping back into the 60s midweek. Lows behind the cold front on Tuesday night will be mainly in the 30s except in the metro area. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Line of storms has largely sunk south of metro St Louis, but a stratiform rain region with embedded thunder is likely to continue affecting most metro sites over the next few hours. There is the potential for heavier rain and storms again in a couple of hours as activity to the west arrives which could lower visibility a bit further and continue the thunder threat through about 23Z or so. It's possible that some lower ceilings develop after all this rain, but much of this should be falling out of a mid level cloud layer so ceilings remain mostly VFR. A cold front shifts winds to the northwest overnight and beings to get gusty. This clears the rain and clouds out but winds remain gusty on Sunday. Kimble && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018004937#### FXUS64 KOHX 181737 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1237 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - There is low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms mainly west of I-65 Saturday evening into Saturday night. - Near-record high temperatures are expected this afternoon. - Significantly cooler temperatures will settle in from Sunday onward. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 High pressure is sitting off to our east and that will keep things quiet through the afternoon. As the high slides east a strong surface low over Canada will push a cold front east into Middle TN tonight. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. Storms are already firing along the cold front to our west over the Plains. Storms look to push into our west after 10 PM working east into the Nashville area between midnight and 3 AM and pushing east over the Plateau through 7 AM. As the front and thunderstorms draw near in the evening we will see bulk shear increase to 35-45 knots with 0-1 km shear 30-40 knots and 0-1 SRH 100-200 and 0-3 km SRH 200-300. We will also see southerly winds increase with gusts up to 30 mph. There will be plenty of shear for severe weather but the question still remains on if we will see enough CAPE for severe weather. The latest CAMs and HREF have little to no surface CAPE in our area ahead of the front. The 12z HREF gives a near zero percent chance of CAPE greater than 250 j/kg. Storms will likely start to weaken as they get to the east of Memphis and given the forecasted CAPE it's going to be tough to get severe weather around here. Given how dynamic the atmosphere is still can't rule out some gusty winds mainly near the TN River and if we do end up seeing higher CAPE than forecasted then we could see a better chance for strong winds and maybe a tornado or two, at this point the chances of that are very low. The front will be working east through Middle TN during the morning and we will see mainly dry conditions by the afternoon. The trough axis will be working through tough and that may pop off a few showers over the Plateau through the afternoon. Highs today will be hot in the mid to upper 80s and it will be humid with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Much cooler and drier air filters in during the day Sunday and that will bring some big changes, highs in some areas will be 20 degrees cooler than today with highs only in the low to mid 60s. It will also be breezy behind the front with wind gusts up to 30 mph through Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Quiet weather returns for the start of the week as a weak upper level ridge builds in and a surface high develops to our south. With the cool dry air in place we will see a cold start to Monday with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs warm back into the mid 60s to lower 70s by Tuesday and southerly flow will keep things warmer Monday night. An upper level trough will dig into the Great Lakes mid week giving us northwest flow and cooling things off again. Highs will fall back into the 60s with cold overnight lows in the 30s to lower 40s. A short wave trough will push out of the Four Corners region late in the week and may bring some rain chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the evening before showers and potentially a storm impact the terminals. Thunderstorm chances will be highest at CKV/BNA/MQY. There is a low to medium chance that visibilities drop to IFR/MVFR during periods of heavy rain after 06z. Models suggest ceilings will decrease after a cold front moves through the terminals dropping conditions to MVFR for Sunday morning. Showers will clear CKV prior to 18z while lingering at the other terminals. Winds will be gusty (20-25 kts) out of the S/SSW through evening hours before winds shift to the W/WNW after frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 60 69 43 72 / 100 70 0 0 Clarksville 56 67 41 72 / 100 60 0 0 Crossville 55 63 35 64 / 80 90 0 0 Columbia 58 68 40 71 / 100 60 0 0 Cookeville 56 65 37 66 / 80 80 0 0 Jamestown 55 63 37 64 / 80 90 0 0 Lawrenceburg 58 67 38 69 / 100 60 0 0 Murfreesboro 59 68 40 71 / 90 70 0 0 Waverly 54 66 41 70 / 100 50 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Reagan ####018004877#### FXUS64 KOUN 181738 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning into Saturday evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Elevated fire weather conditions possible Monday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A 35-40 kt low-level jet will continue to set up across most of the area overnight into the early morning hours. There is some model agreement that at least scattered thunderstorms are possible early this morning. The environment will be characterized by elevated instability of 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kts. If a stronger storm does form in this environment, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Model guidance is fairly similar in developing showers and some storms across West Texas during this time with further development into western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. With rather strong mid and upper level forcing and a veered low-level flow, instability will be limited, but perhaps enough for embedded thunder. The main large scale ascent from a mid-level shortwave trough will push through the southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, which will kick off another round of showers and thunderstorms across eastern portions of the area. Instability will be limited, but with strong forcing and sufficient deep-layer shear, damaging winds and large hail will be possible. Any convection will move out of the area by sunset. A cold front will sweep through the area Saturday, which will bring much cooler temperatures overnight ranging from upper 30s to the north to upper 40s across southern portions of the area. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Fall temperatures are here! Well, temporarily. Drier and cooler air behind the aforementioned front will foster low 70s across the forecast area Sunday afternoon -- an absolute perfect day to be outdoors! Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high shifts to the east and troughing along the Rockies promotes warm air advection. Monday afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across the northern half of the area, and in the upper 80s to low 90s across the southern half of the area. The surface pattern will create a sneaky fire weather set up for Monday afternoon. Dry return flow, with gusty winds and dry fuels, will create elevated fire weather conditions across portions of western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Appreciable rainfall on Saturday may help mute the threat for spreading fires on Monday -- a trend that we will continue to monitor over the next 24 hours. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Mostly zonal flow with perhaps some weak ridging is expected through the rest of the week. Another cold front will push through Monday evening, bringing temperatures back down into the low to mid 70s across the entire area. Temperatures through the rest of the week should stay in the 70s to low 80s during the long term as well. Medium range model guidance suggests that another system may move across the southern Plains during the latter half of the week, which may bring additional precipitation chances across the forecast area. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Clouds are decreasing quickly across much of western Oklahoma and western north Texas, and this trend will continue to the east. A cold front will move across all TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots are possible behind the frontal passage, especially across the western half of Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms will linger through 19-20Z at DUA and a few showers and storms may form near SWO/PNC as the front moves through late this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 47 70 54 85 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 45 72 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 48 72 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 40 71 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 43 69 53 84 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 51 72 50 84 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...06 ####018002724#### FXUS63 KMPX 181738 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief period of light rain expected for locations along and south of I-94 today as a front passes through from west to east. - Seasonable temperatures through the next 7 days, with Tuesday being the coldest. - Breezy conditions through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 We're beginning to see winds shift out of the northwest as the surface front makes its way into western and central Minnesota. With this fropa, we'll see gusts up to around 25 mph during the afternoon and highs about 5 to 10F cooler than yesterday. Maintained a chance for light showers along and south of the I-94 corridor, but have tightened up the window in which it'll rain for spots. The forcing should be sufficient with the trough strengthening as it passes over the Upper Midwest, and there is also a solid linear fgen signal especially this evening over parts of west-central Wisconsin. Overall amounts are expected to be under a tenth of an inch given it'll be a progressive corridor of showers. Sunday is set to be a stellar fall day with high pressure sprawled across the Plains. Monday will feature another trough ejecting south from the Canadian Rockies, with an increase in winds and a shot at light rain (especially north of I-94). Long range ensembles continue to show max gusts around 40 mph Monday into Tuesday. This strong cold air advection will plummet highs for Tuesday, with most folks barely reaching 50F. Temperatures gradually rebound through the end of the week once winds shift out of the south late Wednesday. A quieter pattern also sets up for us with troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the west. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Incoming mid level clouds at midday will be followed by a few showers into the evening. Showers should be light and last only 2-4 hours. Not every location will have showers, so maintained the prob30. Gusty west to northwest winds will tapoer off this evening but some gradient wind will persist overnight. Then more gusts Sunday late morning as high pressure moves in. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 10-20 kts bcmg W 10-20G25 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts. WED...VFR. Wind W 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...TDK ####018013838#### FXUS63 KLOT 181739 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers and storms are expected this afternoon through Sunday morning as a fall storm system moves through the area. - Much of the area will pick up much-needed soaking rainfall over the weekend. The highest rainfall totals (1-2+ inches) are expected to occur near and east of Interstate 55. - A period of gusty northwest winds (gusts in excess of 35 mph) are expected on Sunday. Additional periods of breezy winds are possible on Monday and Tuesday as another fall storm system moves through the region. - Temperatures will be on a see-saw through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The morning round of showers and thunderstorms has largely moved out of the area which has allowed a period of dry weather to materialize. While these dry conditions do look to persist through at least mid-afternoon (2-3 PM CDT), there is a few isolated showers and storms festering along a line from southwest MI to central IL so cannot rule out a few of these brush areas along and south of a Pontiac to Rensselaer line in the meantime. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along a pseudo dryline this afternoon, but there remains some uncertainty as to how far east it will get before storms redevelop. The reason for the uncertainty is due to differences in how much dew points will mix out across northwest IL this afternoon as the axis of mid-level dry air near the Mississippi River advects east. If the dew points are able to mix down to the lower 50s as some guidance suggests then the dryline could get as far east as I-57 and thus storms would be focused there and points south and east. However, if the dew points only mix into the mid to upper 50s as most guidance suggest then the boundary may only get to I-55 and thus more of the area will be in play for storms this afternoon. At this point, our official forecast favors the I-55 and points south and east solution which seems the most reasonable based on trends thus far. That said, instability this afternoon still looks to be somewhat limited to expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to still be more scattered in nature. Furthermore, there is still a low chance (around 5-10%) for a stronger storm or two to develop east of I-55 as effective shear values this afternoon will be around 35-40 kts. Any stronger storms that do develop will have the potential to produce instances of strong winds (in excess of 45 mph) and hail up to quarter size. The better slug of rain for most of the area will arrive later this evening and overnight as the true cold front (currently over central IA) moves through the area and merges with the cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving out of southern MO and the associated developing surface low. The rain tonight will bring widespread amounts in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range with a corridor of higher amounts (up to 2+ inches) in far eastern IL and northwest IN. Given that these rain totals should fall over the course of a 12+ hour period the threat for flooding continues to look low, but will need to keep an eye on how much rain the afternoon storms produce as that could lead to some localized ponding issues if these coincide with the heavy rain axis overnight. Overall the forecast reflected these thoughts well with only minor adjustments made to account for the dry period this morning/early afternoon and storms this afternoon. We will continue to provide more updates as trends evolve so make sure to check back. Yack && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Through Sunday: Early this morning, isentropic ascent is driving convection within a frontal zone located near the Mississippi River at press time. This corridor of shower and thunderstorm activity will drift eastward in tandem with the frontal zone as the morning goes on before the attendant low-level jet weakens after daybreak and diminishes the likelihood of convective sustenance and new development with time. Thus, a relative lull in shower and storm activity is expected in our forecast area during the late morning. Until that occurs though, a few storms could produce some gusty winds and small hail across northern Illinois over the next few hours. Another uptick in convective coverage is then likely to occur in the southeastern half of our forecast area this afternoon as breezy southwesterly winds push surface temperatures into the mid 70s in the corridor of ongoing isentropic ascent/warm air advection along the leading edge of the somewhat ill-defined frontal zone. This will particularly be the case during the latter half of the afternoon into the early evening as large- scale forcing strengthens greatly with the approach of two phasing upper-level troughs. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear could allow for a few stronger storms to develop this afternoon into this evening with strong winds and hail up to about nickel or quarter size as the main threats. A sneaky potential for damaging wind gusts could also come to fruition if any dynamic pressure perturbations induced by the highly turbulent and unbalanced upper-level flow out ahead of the incoming composite trough assist with bringing some stronger flow from aloft down to ground level, so surface observations in our southeastern counties and upstream locations will need to carefully be monitored as convection becomes increasingly numerous later today. Compared to 24 hours ago, model guidance is in much better agreement regarding a quicker, cleaner phasing of the two aforementioned upper-level waves taking place. If this does indeed occur, then strong upper-level divergence downwind of the composite upper-level trough's base and in the co-located right entrance region of a strengthening upper-level jet will further augment the already strong forcing for ascent to both spur the development of an expansive shield of precipitation and induce cyclogenesis at the surface late today into early Sunday. As a result, an extended period of widespread and welcome rainfall will occur across the region tonight with most locations across our CWA slated to pick up at least half an inch to an inch of rainfall prior to precipitation ceasing during the daytime on Sunday. In the southeastern half of our CWA -- closer to the where the center of the deepening surface low will track from southwest to northeast, strong deformation will further enhance upward motion and hence precipitation rates, likely resulting in a stripe of higher rainfall totals (likely greater than 2" in total). While ponding may occur on some roadways and in some fields and ditches, the antecedent dryness and the relatively long duration of the rainfall should otherwise preclude a more appreciable threat for flooding from materializing. Winds will turn northwesterly and become a bit strong Sunday morning behind a cold front being driven by the northern of the two aforementioned upper-level disturbances. While there is some uncertainty regarding what effect ongoing rainfall may have on the regularity of the stronger wind gusts, wind gust magnitudes could approach 40 mph at times on Sunday morning before winds gradually start to taper off during the afternoon as the deepening surface cyclone departs and high pressure starts to build back into the region. Cold air advection off of these winds will result in noticeably cooler daytime temperatures on Sunday with most locations in our forecast area still looking like they won't break the 60 degree mark. Ogorek Sunday Night through Friday: The upper-level pattern will remain energetic in the wake of the weekend storm system with a secondary upper-level trough and associated surface low poised to dive southeastward into the Great Lakes region in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. Even with the usual variance in the evolution of the low depicted among guidance, a signal remains for a period of breezy southwest winds on Monday (WAA ahead of the system) transitioning to breezy west to northwest winds on Tuesday (CAA behind the system). In scenarios where the surface low is strong (sub 1000mb), it is easy to envision peak gusts in either regime tagging 40 mph, as hinted by 40kt of flow at the top of the mixed layer in deterministic GFS and ECMWF forecast soundings. This'll be something to keep an eye on as we get closer. Unlike the storm system coming through this weekend, chances for meaningful rainfall with the secondary system will be limited by meager moisture return and relegated to a quickily-moving band of showers along the southeastward-surging cold front Monday evening and perhaps a few showers lingering behind as the mid- level cold pool associated with the trough slide overhead. After a relatively warm Monday with highs in the mid 60s, temperatures behind the front on Tuesday will be noticeably cooler and in the 50s. We'll have to watch for any embedded shortwaves to move over the area along the backside of the upper-level trough to support a diurnal flare in scattered showers, as can happen this time of year. As the system pulls away Tuesday night, temperatures will be poised to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s away from the lake. At this point, suspect there will be enough cloud cover or lingering winds to limit temperatures from really tanking out. Forecast confidence lowers from the middle of the week owing to spread within ensemble guidance in the treatment of an eastward- moving upper-level low emanating from California. Borchardt && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period: - Showers and storms possible this afternoon, mainly along and south of a KVYS to KGYY line - Showers and storms expand northward this evening, transitioning to just rain after midnight - Gusty northwest winds in excess of 30 knots tomorrow morning MVFR cigs are being observed across much of northern Illinois, though VFR clearing has finally arrived at KRFD. Cigs are expected to gradually break up and lift through the afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 knots are expected through the afternoon. An occasional gust to 20 knots is possible, but it should be infrequent enough to keep it out of the TAF. Winds will slowly turn to the south (potentially a short window to the southeast) late this afternoon as a surface low approaches. While there is a break in the rain at the time of this discussion, attention is turning toward central Illinois where new thunderstorms are forming and moving east-northeast. The threat for showers and storms this afternoon should mainly be along and south of a KVYS to KGYY line. A stray shower north of there is possible which allows a PROB30 to be maintained at KMDW, but the higher confidence is to the south which is why the KGYY TAF now has a TEMPO for -TSRA this afternoon. As a surface low deepens over Illinois this evening, widespread expansion of rain and MVFR conditions across the area is expected. With instability still present, VCTS was kept in the TAF, though chances diminish toward and after midnight. There is a chance for IFR vis during the heaviest rain, but confidence was too low to add it to the TAF currently. Rain will slowly dissipate tomorrow morning from west to east, with dry VFR conditions expected in the afternoon. Winds will turn to the northwest after midnight as the surface low starts to move east. But as the pressure gradient tightens, wind gusts will increase. Wind gusts in excess of 30 knots can be expected toward daybreak, but there is a chance for gusts as high as 40 knots for brief periods of times. Gusty conditions will continue through much of the day tomorrow, though the magnitude will gradually diminish through the afternoon. DK && .MARINE... Issued at 429 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - A Gale Warning is now in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening. A fall storm system will move through the Great Lakes this weekend, bringing with it periods of showers and thunderstorms and strong winds. The strongest winds are expected to develop overnight tonight into Sunday morning and persist through Sunday evening. Confidence is high in 35 kt gales being observed across all of southern Lake Michigan, and so the earlier Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. Gales as high as about 40 kts could be observed over Indiana nearshore waters and points farther to the north and northeast. These winds will also lead to very large waves, which will also be highest along the northwest Indiana shore and across southeastern portions of Lake Michigan. Yack/Ogorek && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018005312#### FXUS63 KGID 181740 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest winds gusting 30-45mph behind a cold frontal passage today. - Frost/Freeze possible across much of the area tonight/Sunday morning. A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory are in effect tonight. - Another round of gusty northwest winds arrives on Monday behind a cold front. - Near-slightly above normal temperatures expected Monday onwards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Today and Sunday... Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 40s and 50s, under mostly clear skies. Aloft, a trough over Montana will dive into the Plains/Midwest today. A cold front associated with the upper level trough, currently sits near the Nebraska-South Dakota border. The cold front will push through most of the forecast area this morning, reaching far southeastern portions of the area this afternoon. Winds quickly increase behind the cold frontal passage, resulting in a windy afternoon for the forecast area. Widespread northwest winds gusting 30-40mph are expected, with localized areas gusting up to 45mph. A few scattered showers are possible (10-20%) behind the cold frontal passage, mainly across northeastern portions of the area. Drier air near the surface may limit how much rain is able to reach the surface, so limited PoPs to sprinkles outside of a line from Ord to York. Cooler air filters in behind the cold front, limiting daytime heating. Highs will range from the upper 50s in the northwest to the low 70s in the southeast. Winds decrease this evening as a high pressure system slides over the area. A cooler airmass will be in place over the area, as skies clear tonight allowing for a rapid drop in temperatures overnight and the first chance for frost this season. In collaboration with neighboring offices, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freeze Warning where temperatures below freezing and widespread frost is most likely (northwest). A Frost Advisory was issued for central portions of the area where at least patchy frost appears possible. The biggest limiting factor on frost will be wind, which may remain just strong enough (5-10mph) to keep frost development isolated for areas in the Advisory. The high pressure system will shift to the southeast Sunday morning, as warmer, southwesterly flow returns to the area. Despite the cool start to the day, the dry airmass and southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb towards their climatological normals, in the mid-upper 60s. While winds will be noticeably lighter than Today/Saturday, breezy winds are expected at times during the afternoon, gusting 20-25mph. Lows in the 40s are forecast Sunday night. Monday... The next shortwave trough dives into the Plains on Monday, pushing another cold front through the area. Similar to Saturday, the cold front moves most of the area during the morning hours, with gusty northerly winds expected behind the cold frontal passage. Highs on Monday will range from the low 60s (north) to low 70s. Northerly winds gusting 30-40mph are expected behind the front, strongest during the afternoon. Lows will sink into the mid 30s to low 40s Monday night. Tuesday Onwards... Northwesterly flow sets up over the area for the middle of next week. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the forecast period with highs in the 60s/70s, and lows in the upper 30s/40s. An upper level low moving out of Colorado brings the next chance for precipitation to the area on Thursday, though any chances look to be limited to southern portions of the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Overall...VFR conditions anticipated through the period with winds and CIGS being the main focus for the TAF period. Mid level clouds can be seen rapidly encroaching on the terminals this afternoon and should fill in over the next hour or so. While there are some showers upstream of the terminals...think CIGS will remain VFR any any -SHRAs or sprinkles that reach either terminal over the next few hours will have CIGS near 4KFT and be too brief/widely scattered to be included in TAFs. Winds will continue to increase...with gusts 30KTS+ anticipated through the afternoon hours...before diminishing this evening/overnight as an area of surface high pressure slides south across the high plains. Light westerly winds and clear skies are then anticipated to start the day Sunday aft 19/13Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ041-047>049-062>064-074>076-083>085. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ039-040-046-060-061-072-073-082. KS...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ005-006-017. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...SR