####018006687#### FXUS65 KVEF 160500 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 959 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to warm through Friday before another potent weather system drops into the region over the weekend, bringing strong gusty winds, a chance of precipitation, and a drop in temperatures. Calmer and warmer weather is expected next week. && .UPDATE...Current satellite imagery shows clear skies across most of the area. Cloud cover will increase from the north to the south tonight and tomorrow as a weak shortwave moves through the area. Overnight lows will be near average for this time of year, which means lows in the mid 60s for Las Vegas. No forecast updates are necessary at this time. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. Low impact weather is expected through Friday. Weak height rises are expected tonight which will keep winds calm and skies clear. On Friday, a weak shortwave embedded in the mean flow will shift through the region. This feature will be dry in the low levels but have some mid to upper level moisture associated with, there will be increasing clouds from northwest to southeast through the day, but no rain is expected. An uptick in winds is possible as this piece of energy moves through, but gusts should remain under 20 MPH in most locations with gusts up to 25 MPH possible in the Mojave Desert wind- prone areas. High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today, which will be near normal for this time of the year. A stronger, more impactful trough will dig into the region this weekend, which will bring potentially impactful winds and precipitation chances. The main concern will be winds as widespread gusty southwest winds will set up on Saturday as the pressure gradient increases with the deepening system. A strengthening jet also sets up across the Western Mojave Desert through southern Nevada into Arizona. Probabilities for over 40 MPH gusts are over 50% through this region, and many ensemble members show 40-50MPH gusts on Saturday. Decided to issue a Wind Advisory for these areas as confidence is high enough for wind impacts on Saturday. May need to add some locations if confidence increases for gusty winds and wind impacts, especially in Death Valley and the Sierra into the Owens Valley, but did not have enough confidence that widespread wind impacts will occur at this time in those areas. A few ensemble members around Barstow, CA as well as Desert Rock, NV show 55 MPH+ wind gusts on Saturday, but do not have enough confidence for a High Wind Watch/Warning now. Later shifts can now focus on adjusting headlines and wind impact levels as we enter the hi-res model domain and changes in probabilities lead to higher confidence. Southwest winds will slowly diminish Saturday evening, with gusty wind and wind impacts lingering the longest through the Western Mojave Desert. On Sunday, winds will turn northwest as the trough axis moves through. The best chance for wind impacts with gusts over 40 MPH on Sunday will be in Esmeralda, central Nye, and northern parts of Inyo County as the front washes out as it moves further south. Additional wind headlines may be needed on Sunday in parts of the Southern Great Basin or the Owens Valley, but held off as confidence was lower and it was uncertain how widespread the north wind impacts would be on Sunday. The best chance for precipitation will be through southern Nevada and northern Mohave County where showers and thunderstorms may develop Saturday and Sunday. This is where PWATs will increase to 125 to 175 percent of normal (generally between 0.50 and 0.75 inches), which will allow for moderate-to-heavy rain rates beneath any thunderstorms that develop, but generally light rainfall is elsewhere. At this time, it looks like the greatest threat of thunderstorms will be across central Nye and northern Lincoln counties Saturday and across central Nye and the remainder of Lincoln County Sunday. Further west, the forecast is trending drier as moisture will be scoured out too quickly behind the trough axis. Other than some light precipitation on the Sierra Crest, most of the California zones should remain dry. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will cool slightly each day as the system moves inland. .LONG TERM...Monday through Wednesday. Behind the trough, ridging sets up for the start of the work week that will result in Las Vegas chances for 90 degrees rapidly increasing through the week and "Moderate" HeatRisk (Level 2 on a scale from 0 to 4) returning to the low valleys. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light southwest winds less than 10 knots will continue through the night. A brief period of light northeast winds is still possible tomorrow morning, although the signal for this has diminished, and winds may stay more variable or westerly. Regardless of the direction, speeds will remain 8 knots or less through at least 18Z. A shift to the southwest is still expected after 18Z, and once this shift occurs, expect winds to remain from that direction through Saturday, along with occasional gusts to 20 knots. VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow night with bases remaining AOA 15kft AGL. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...The Las Vegas area TAF sites will see conditions similar to those described above for Harry Reid, except winds at KHND will remain primarily out of the southwest through the period. Elsewhere, except KDAG, area TAF sites will see light winds of less than 10 knots through tonight. KDAG will see the typical gusty westerly winds continue through daybreak before decreasing. By tomorrow afternoon, all regional terminals will see winds increasing from the south to southwest, with 20 to 25 knots gusts becoming common by late afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow night with bases remaining AOA 12kft AGL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Meltzer SHORT TERM...Nickerson LONG TERM...Soulat AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018004253#### FXUS65 KFGZ 160500 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1000 PM MST Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures continue on Friday with cooler weather returning over the weekend and into early next week. A storm system over the weekend and into Monday will bring chances for showers and gusty southwest winds. && .UPDATE...The current forecast remains in good shape. Look for fair weather overnight with a near repeat of Thursday's weather on Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION /558 PM MST/...Friday...Dry conditions continue with near average temperatures expected. Winds will be primarily out of the west to southwest and around 5-15 mph with afternoon gusts around 20-25 mph. Saturday through Monday...A deepening trough across the Great Basin will bring increasing winds through the weekend. The winds on Saturday will increase out of the southwest to 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Sunday. It will still be fairly dry on Saturday, and with the very dry conditions across eastern parts of the forecast area, we could see some fire weather concerns. The strongest winds look to be more over western and northern areas while the driest conditions look to be over eastern areas. Still looks marginal but near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected. The approaching trough will drag in some cooler air on Saturday as a cold front moves through but the colder air arrives for Sunday and Monday as the trough redevelops on the western side and dives down through the state. We should also see moisture increasing on Sunday which may allow for some showers and isolated thunderstorms (even some snow showers across the higher elevations) late Saturday through Sunday. Areas along and north of the I-40 corridor look to have the best chances for a shower. The increasing moisture should help to tamp down the fire weather concerns. Though the southern portions of Apache and Navajo counties will still have near critical conditions as winds will be gustier on Sunday. As the secondary trough pushes into the region, we will see another influx of moisture to the region and more chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. An active start to the week for sure. As the second trough exits the region late Monday, we should see a rather quick recovery across the state. Temperatures will warm to near average by midweek and then 5-10 degrees above average for the second half of the week. Winds are expected to become lighter through the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...Friday 16/06Z through Saturday 17/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected, smoke could reduce visibility near and downwind of Greer (east Arizona) and Blind fires (SE of KLFG). Winds light and variable or terrain driven over night, becoming SW 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts between 15-18Z Friday. Becoming light and variable after 03Z Saturday. OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/06Z through Monday 19/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected until 12Z Sunday, mainly north of I-40, then scattered rain showers. Smoke could reduce visibility near and downwind of wildfires. Winds Saturday SW 15-20kts, gusts to 30kts. On Sunday winds increase SW 20-25kts, gusts to 40kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday through Saturday...Dry conditions will continue with minimum RH values mostly below 15%. Southwest to west afternoon winds 10 to 20 MPH Friday. Southwest winds increase on Saturday 15 to 20 mph gusting between 25 and 35 mph. Near critical fire weather possible Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler, windy, and chances for showers on Sunday and Monday. Southwest winds 15-20 mph gusting between 30 and 40 mph on Sunday, becoming lighter westerly winds on Monday. Warmer, less wind, and drier on Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/Meola AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018002366#### FXUS63 KDDC 160501 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1201 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather tonight - Dry and pleasant Friday - Chance of storms mainly east weekend onward && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Quiet weather is expected tonight. Westerly to northwesterly winds will continue through the overnight period. A weak wave moving through might provide northern Kansas with some cloud cover, but that is about exciting as it will get. Lows tonight will be near normal with values 40s northwest to 50s southeast. The quiet weather pattern will continue for Friday. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph are expected in the wake of a fropa. Highs tomorrow should range from the 70s northwest to the 80s southeast. By Saturday in Sunday, a large upper level trof will carve out west of the FA. This will allow for the warm sector to return northward with moisture advection and higher dewpoints. A dryline will eventually set up across the FA over the weekend. The exact position of this dryline is still unclear. The dryline will set the stage for storms to develop on. Should storms develop, they will likely be severe given the ample instability and bulk shear that should be in place. Have the highest confidence of storms across the eastern zones, which is a seasonably favored position of the dryline for this time of year. Beyond the weekend, the next business week is looking to feature more unsettled weather as a large upper level system impacts the plains for the first half of the week. There is some disagreement in both the deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts regarding this system. Will continue with the NBM pops and temps given this uncertainty in the long term period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR flight category for all terminals during the next 24 hours. Winds will pick up after 14Z at all terminals sustained at 15 kts with gusts in the 25-30 kt range through 00Z Saturday. Winds should quickly diminish after 00Z to below 12 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Tatro ####018007146#### FXUS64 KMEG 160501 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1201 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms overnight. - The northern half of the region is in an Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk alongside a Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk within our far northern counties for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday through the middle of next week with another chance for severe storms Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Generally dry across the Mid-South this evening, with a few showers just to our west. CAMs continue to struggle with the evolution of the system overnight, which could bring another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. Looking at the environment, we do remain fairly capped. This cap held up earlier in the day with storms that moved into the area, so do question if it will be able to erode at all as another push of storms moves into the area. Still looks like those generally along and north of the I-40 corridor would have the best chance of seeing anything go severe, mainly after midnight until around sunrise. If storms do develop and are able to break the cap, there would not be much to stop them thereafter with all storm modes on the table. Remainder of the forecast remains on track, with another, and likely more impactful, round tomorrow (Friday) evening. CMA && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Warm weather continues today underneath upper ridging with highs in the upper 80s that will last through tomorrow. High moisture still resides throughout the region with incredible instability within an increasingly sheared environment. Storms have already begun to fire in W AR, which is contrary to what much of this mornings' CAM guidance suggested. Forecast soundings, although potentially now unreliable, retain a stout EML below 700 mb throughout the region which could prevent a more significant severe threat. Regardless, DCAPE above 500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates above 8 C/km alongside 40+ knots of bulk shear will allow for organized bowing line segments and hail. KNQA and KLZK radar observation support this with storms expected to move through NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and NW TN this evening. Because of the EML and weak forcing, development further south is unlikely at this time, but will be monitored over the coming hours. Storms will likely diminish in strength after 00z as capping increases. Given the current trends this afternoon, thunderstorm activity tonight is growing more uncertain. However, CAM guidance has stubbornly held on to the idea of convection after 06z as the LLJ intensifies alongside continued upper height falls. The effects of this afternoon convection are likely to reduce some instability from portions of the region, but unaffected areas could see more development tonight. Forecast soundings depict a similar environment to this afternoon with high MUCAPE/Shear that would suggest a severe hail and damaging wind threat lasting through tomorrow morning. Again, this is a very uncertain forecast that could evolve in as little as a few hours but confidence is increasing in severe thunderstorms tonight. By tomorrow morning, the upper low that has been dominating this weeks weather will be parked over the Great Lakes. To its south, a seasonably strong jet streak is forecast to form over the Ohio River Valley granting strong shear across the entire region. Continued southerly advection is expected to overcome any modification of surface moisture that occurs tonight. By early afternoon short range and CAM guidance paints 3000+ MLCAPE over much of the region. Any capping is likely to be overcome as temperatures swell into the upper 80s with the potential for storms beginning as early as 2 PM with storms forming along and ahead of a cold front. Forecast soundings display relatively straight hodographs, which would favor splitting supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds early on. Later in the evening, hodograph curvature begins to increase that indicates higher tornado potential near and after sunset, especially with any discrete storms. Additionally, the potential for outflow boundaries and areas of enhanced SRH exists from tonight's convection. Storm coverage remains uncertain still with the potential for a mix of supercells and bowing line segments both along and ahead of the surface cold front. Storms will continue well into the overnight hours, but increasing capping is expected to reduce the severity of any remaining convection with time. The cold front will advance into N MS Saturday and stall as the upper jet lifts to our east. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible around the quasi-stationary boundary Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall totals through Sunday currently sit between 1-2" with locally heavier amounts likely. Going into next week, medium range guidance progs a new trough ejection in the Central Plains. The stationary boundary will then lift north, allowing for more warm, tropical weather by mid-week. Diurnal showers and storms are possible Monday afternoon. Another severe threat appears possible on Tuesday as the system makes its way through the Midsouth, but model discrepancies with respect to previous days' convection reduces confidence in what hazards will occur at this time. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement that a northwesterly upper pattern will take hold after Tuesday. Therefore, temperatures are expected to cool off to end the period with dry weather. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Nailing down the timing of each window of precip is quite difficult this period as CAMs have been handling the initiation quite poorly thus far. Given the northward trend of overnight convection through 12Z, opted to make some pretty drastic changes to MEM and MKL's precip for the next several hours. The vast majority of the day looks completely dry for most areas. Main show looks to be Friday night after 00Z, and will likely also pack a punch with gusty winds as the convection materializes along a very strong cold front. In terms of ceilings, don't think there will be more than a few hours of MVFR this (Fri) morning, otherwise VFR looks to prevail for all sites. Gusty non- thunderstorm winds from the SW will also prevail for the majority of the day into the evening tomorrow, finally diminishing overnight into Saturday. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CAD ####018004849#### FXUS63 KFGF 160503 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1203 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, especially along and north of Highway 2. An isolated strong storm is possible. - Showers continue on Friday with much cooler temperatures. - There is a 60 percent chance for at least 1 inch of rain over eastern North Dakota through Friday. Best chances west of the Red River. - Patchy to areas of frost possible this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 No changes were made to the forecast this update. Same thoughts remain valid from previous discussion with respect to lingering light rain, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures. UPDATE Issued at 926 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Severe threat has ended. The well developed and now occluded surface low resides within eastern North Dakota. This will slowly meander eastward tonight through tomorrow keeping conditions cloudy and breezy through tonight, along with some intervals of light showers. Still forecasting gusty north- northwest winds 30-50 mph behind the departing low over eastern ND and Red River Valley, along with much cooler temperatures compared to recent days. This includes chance for frost late overnight/early morning hours this weekend. UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Severe weather threat is diminishing across the CWA this evening. Thus the Tornado Watch in portions of Minnesota was recently expired. Along and north of Highway 2 there still remains enough instability for thunderstorms, although lacks stronger shear for severe weather. Still could see some stronger wind gusts and perhaps small hail through this evening. The line currently pushing north has a history of producing isolated funnel clouds and brief tornadoes. This threat may linger into the evening, mainly in northern Minnesota as low level shear, 0 to 3 KM CAPE, and lower level lapse rates remain slightly elevated. The threat will diminish around or shortly after sunset. Behind this line a dry slot may briefly settling in before the next round of showers and isolated thunderstorms develops later tonight and into Friday. Lows tonight remain on track to be mainly in the 40s. Breezy winds could also be found tonight, then become strong north northwest winds on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...Synopsis... A strong upper low, and the corresponding shortwave, will traverse the area today through Friday. This will bring widespread rain chances to eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and west-central Minnesota. A few of todays storms could become severe. Heading into Friday, look for continuing rainfall and much cooler temperatures. Highs are only expected to reach the 40s and 50s. Cooler temperatures remain in place this weekend as high temperatures reach the upper 40s Saturday, then climb into the 50s for Sunday. Highs will then be in the 60s through the first half on next week. ...Severe Storms Possible Today... H5 upper low continues to approach southeastern North Dakota this afternoon. Soundings indicate the presence of CAPE values ranging from 1500 J/Kg to 2500 J/Kg. Low level shear, both in the 0-1km and 0-3km layers looks supportive of low top supercells or cluster/supercell hybrid mode. As such, the risk for brief tornadoes and hail up to 1 inch is worth a mention. Additionally, funnels are possible as the upper low passes through the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Tonight through Friday, low clouds could setting in across the area with periods of showers. The combination of low clouds and showers could bring MVFR to IFR conditions. There is a 40% chance for LIFR conditions within eastern ND. All sites hold a chance for these conditions, with eastern ND into west- central MN lingering lowered ceilings for longest. A 60% chance of showers are forecast within the TAF period for all sites. This may lower vsby to 4SM at times. Winds change in direction as a low pressure system within eastern ND moves into Minnesota. Gusty north-northwest winds increase Friday after sunrise. Gusts to 35kt are forecast. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001>004-007. && $$ UPDATE...CJ DISCUSSION... Anglin AVIATION...CJ