####018006099#### FXUS64 KSHV 160505 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1205 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Mostly cloudy skies remain this evening, as clouds continue to stream in along the southwesterly flow aloft over the region. In the extreme northwestern portion of the forecast area, generally across Northwest McCurtain County Oklahoma, a frontal boundary has remained stalled for most of the day. We had a few showers and isolated thunderstorms develop along that boundary earlier, but things are much quieter this evening. Radar does show some returns near that boundary, but nearby observations indicate that most of that is likely not reaching the ground. As we move into the evening and overnight hours, some short-term progs suggest a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop near the boundary, generally across McCurtain County and portions of SW Arkansas north of Interstate 30. So, decided to keep POPs in those areas to account for this. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies to remain areawide. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s north of the front to the low to mid 70s across the remainder of the region. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 While a low pressure system is impacting the Great Lakes Region, an associated cold front has become quasi-stationary just northwest of the region. We have seen some rain and thunderstorms develop along this boundary this afternoon, which has stayed sub severe in intensity so far. The concern in previous packages has been the strength in the cap, as seen from the KSHV 12z sounding this morning. RAP analysis has shown some decay in the cap through the day, but we have yet to know if it will be enough for future storms to take advantage of the favorable environment and become severe. Either way, the rain showers will continue to be possible in our far northern zones through the evening and into the overnight hours before the cold front mixes out early Friday morning. The continued cloud cover and elevated surface winds will help keep the regional lows tonight firmly in the 70s. Friday will bring similar conditions to the Ark-La-Tx: warm temperatures and a favorable environment for evening storms, but some uncertainty on if anything will be able to initiate. Short and medium-range guidance has been inconsistent on this front, mainly due to the overall lack of decent low-level forcing. Despite the uncertainty, SPC has a slight risk of severe weather north of a line stretching from north of Monroe to south of Tyler on Friday. This risk is primarily for large hail and damaging winds from storms that are able to initiate and tap in to the environmental moisture and instability. There is also a chance of flash flooding in portions of southern AR with these storms. Rain may continue to impact the northern half of the area overnight Friday, but severe potential should drop off with the progression of upper-level support. /57/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 More upper-level perturbations will move through the Four State Region and bring continued chances of showers and storms through late Sunday, when the upper-level ridge sitting over the area is able to amplify. This could provide a brief reprieve in the unsettled weather on Monday, but there is still a chance of isolated rain showers breaking through the weak part of the ridge. Tuesday will likely bring more widespread severe weather to the area, as models are already beginning to find points of agreement in the setup. A closed low is expected to propagate eastward toward the Central Plains on Tuesday and bring a cold front with it. That front, in combination with a potential Texas dryline, would be the focus of severe weather. There is still some uncertainties on the event, but SPC has already highlighted the northwestern fourth of the CWA as having a 15% chance of severe development on Tuesday. The system should continue eastward out of the region by Wednesday, and reward us with slightly cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. /57/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Starting the TAF period with VFR conditions but that will be temporary with widespread MVFR ceilings expanding northward from SE TX/S LA overnight towards sunrise this morning. Those MVFR ceilings will quickly scatter out and/or become low VFR ceilings with plenty of mid and high clouds above these ascending lower ceilings. Did introduce VCTS to the TYR/TXK terminals only by 17/00z this evening to account for upstream convection perhaps impacting our far western and northwestern terminals towards the tail end of the TAF period. Look for S so SSW winds by mid morning through the late afternoon hours sustained near 10-14kts with gusts upwards of 25kts until they decouple after 17/00z. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this evening northwest of the Interstate 30 corridor of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, should any isolated storms develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 92 74 94 / 30 20 30 10 MLU 75 94 73 93 / 30 20 30 10 DEQ 65 89 68 87 / 20 30 40 30 TXK 71 92 72 91 / 40 30 40 20 ELD 69 92 68 92 / 50 30 40 20 TYR 73 91 72 92 / 20 30 30 10 GGG 72 91 71 92 / 30 20 30 10 LFK 75 94 73 94 / 10 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...57 LONG TERM....57 AVIATION...13 ####018003652#### FXUS64 KSJT 160507 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1207 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the afternoons/evenings. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A weak cold frontal boundary has moved through most of the area, bringing north winds around 10 knots as far south as our Interstate 10 corridor this afternoon. Temperatures have also been kept 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday on average. A few showers also affected parts of the eastern Big Country, including the Abilene area. For tonight, winds will become generally light and variable, with partly to mostly cloudy upper level cloud cover moving across the region. Behind the weak cold front, we can expect lows to be a few degrees cooler on average, ranging from the lower 60s north of Interstate 10, to the lower 70s for our southeastern counties. On Friday, a dryline will move east through most of the area, bringing west winds. These westerly downsloping winds, although contending with some upper level clouds, will allow for warmer temperatures to return tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 90s in most areas, and a few triple digit highs possible in the Mason and Kimble County areas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 After hot and dry conditions for much of this week, we're looking at a pattern change for the start of the long term. An upper level trough will form over western CONUS this weekend. Ahead of the trough, multiple shortwaves and disturbances will move through the flow aloft. This combined with a dryline sitting right over our area will provide a trigger for thunderstorms in the afternoon and into the evening for Saturday through Monday. Models have the dryline pushing east through our area in the afternoon, then retreating back west overnight. The location of the dryline each afternoon when/if the storms start initiating will have a significant impact on thunderstorm chances for our western counties. Areas to the east of the dryline will have the best chance for rain and potentially severe weather. Instability and shear will likely be sufficient enough to produce severe weather if storms can get going. Right now, it looks like the main hazard will be large hail, but we'll get a better idea on hazards and locations as we get closer. Rain chances will decrease after Monday night. The upper level trough will move over our area on Tuesday, with upper level ridging building in behind it. Temperatures will remain above normal for the long term period, with highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 66 94 68 / 20 0 0 0 San Angelo 92 67 98 68 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 98 70 101 69 / 10 0 10 10 Brownwood 90 68 96 68 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 87 68 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 92 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 93 71 98 71 / 10 0 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...Daniels