####018005190#### FXUS61 KCAR 171100 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 700 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach today and slowly cross the region tonight through Sunday night, then slowly exit to the east Monday through Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 7 AM Update: Showers have tapered off across the forecast area early this morning as the occluded front begins to exit the region to the east. This lull in rain showers will be brief, with more showers developing into the late morning hours. The forecast has been updated to reflect this pause in precip prior to populating the area once more. Previous Discussion: An occluded front will continue to gradually shift eastwards across the forecast area early this morning, bringing rain showers along, particularly across the north. A brief pause in rain showers will exist behind this boundary, though diurnal heating today may result in a return of scattered showers throughout the area. The core of the occluded low will approach from the west later today, providing further instability. The greatest chance for any thunderstorm activity will be along the western border of the CWA, where the most clearing early on will be. Otherwise, the area will likely be too stable for much CAPE development with little to no lightning chances. Cooler weather today into tonight is expected, particularly as the cold conveyor belt wraps around the occluded low into the night tonight. More widespread rain showers are in store for the forecast area this evening through the overnight hours as the low center begins to slowly march from west to east through the area. There is still some uncertainty of whether or not a well defined triple point low will develop along the coast while the occlusion crosses our area. If this does occur, rainfall may be enhanced locally along the coast. Otherwise, the marine layer will be too stable for any local enhancements to the rain showers. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Vertically stacked upper level low will cross the region Sunday through Sunday night. This results in continued unsettled weather with showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorms. Showers will continue Sunday night and Monday as the vertically stacked upper low continues east. Lows Sunday night will range from the low to mid 40s across the north and upper 40s to around 50 for Bangor and Downeast. Afternoon highs on Monday will only range from the lower 50s north and mid to upper 50s for Bangor and Downeast. The low will start to exit to the east Monday with continued showers. But as the low move further east later Monday night shower chances will be decreasing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Vertically stacked low pressure continues to move south and east of the Canadian Maritime provinces on Tuesday. As the vertically stacked system continues to move away on Tuesday, shower chances will continue to decrease to scattered to isolated by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night through much of Wednesday appears mainly dry, as upper level ridging and drier air builds in ahead of the next upper level low advancing from the west. Shower chances begin to increase once again Thursday night into Friday, as the upper level low crosses the region by late week and into next weekend. Afternoon high temperatures Tuesday through Friday be several degrees below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions will likely continue through the day today and into tonight at Downeast terminals in persistent low ceilings and possible vis reductions in fog. Rain showers will move across the area today, and will lead to MVFR northern terminals dropping to IFR by this afternoon, and potentially LIFR at northern terminals as well tonight. SE winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable overnight. SHORT TERM: Sun and Sun Night...MVFR/IFR expected in showers and low cigs. N wind around 10 kt. Mon and Mon night...MVFR or lower possible. N to NW wind G25 KT possible. Tue...MVFR/VFR. Sct to isold showers. Tue night and Wed...MVFR/VFR trending VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas likely to remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Areas of fog to remain over the waters today through this evening, with rain moving in later today into tonight. Winds may briefly increase towards 20 to 25 kts as rain showers move in this evening. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through much of the period. Areas of fog may reduce visibility to 1 NM or less at times Sunday morning and again Monday morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...AStrauser/TWD Marine...AStrauser/TWD ####018005450#### FXUS62 KMFL 171103 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 703 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Mid level ridging will continue to build and strengthen over the region as the upcoming weekend progresses. At the surface, high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic will remain in place during this time frame as well. These two features will be the main synoptic features in the weather pattern for the weekend which will bring dry conditions along with warm temperatures. While this set up will favor a rather light south to southeasterly wind flow in general, winds each afternoon will be driven by the development of the sea breezes. High temperatures this weekend will remain above normal as they will range from the upper 80s along the immediate east coast to the mid to upper 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. With the humidity factored in, heat indices will rise into the upper 90s along the east coast and will range between 100 and 105 across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1253 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Deep-layer ridging and and dry weather will prevail across South Florida through the end of the weekend and into much of the upcoming work-week. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry during this period as dry air rotates anticyclonically around the surface ridge axis situated across the western Atlantic waters. NASA's/GMAO Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness model even hints at the periphery of a saharan dust plume arriving across South Florida during the early to middle portion of next week. However, the main implication of stout ridging directly overhead will be very light mid to upper level flow aloft and above average temperatures. Given the lack of cloud cover and subsidence aloft, temperatures will be on the toasty side with values several degrees above average across the area. Across inland areas, afternoon temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s each with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal locations. The foci of hottest afternoon temperatures may pivot by the middle of the work week, switching from southwest florida to southeastern florida as surface flow veers ahead of a weak boundary during the mid to late week period. There won't be much respite overnight as temperatures along the coast will still remain on the warmer side with lows in the middle to upper 70s along the east coast of South Florida. With a lack of cloud cover and surface humidity, apparent temperatures (feels-like temperatures) will reach 100-105 degrees each afternoon. While just below lower bounds of heat advisory thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors could impact vulnerable individuals. Sheltered areas exposed to these temperatures without climate control (parked cars) could become deadly for children and pets. Always look before you lock! By mid week, a mid-level trough propagating across the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes region will drag an attendant surface low and boundary eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This boundary is then forecast to arrive across our region mid-to-late week, bringing a deeper pool of low-level boundary moisture. This extra moisture could provide enough instability to spark up higher rain chances on Thursday and Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this boundary as well as if any upper level synoptic support will arrive in tandem with this feature as the upper level low appears to be displaced well to the north at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning becoming SE around 10 kts after 16Z, with a westerly gulf breeze at APF. Light and variable winds again late tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1253 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 A gentle to occasionally moderate south southeasterly wind flow will remain in place through the upcoming weekend and into early next week across most of the local waters. The exception to this will be over the Gulf waters where winds will shift and become west southwest each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into the early portion of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 77 90 76 / 10 0 10 0 West Kendall 93 74 92 73 / 10 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 93 76 92 76 / 10 0 10 0 Homestead 90 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 89 76 89 76 / 10 0 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 90 76 90 76 / 10 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 95 78 95 78 / 10 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 92 75 91 74 / 10 0 10 0 Boca Raton 92 75 92 75 / 10 0 10 0 Naples 90 75 90 74 / 0 0 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...CMF