####018006806#### FXUS61 KALY 160546 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 146 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Once any lingering evening showers or thunderstorms wind down, it will remain mild and muggy overnight with some patchy fog. A weak upper level disturbance and surface warm front will return the threat for some showers and thunderstorms again on Friday, with the potential for a few strong storms. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Saturday, with the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms once again. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1035 PM EDT...With the loss of daytime heating, any convection has diminished across the region. Radar imagery is showing any showers and thunderstorms have ended across the area. Some heavier downpours occurred earlier in the evening resulting in localized totals of 1-2 inches across parts of Schoharie County and western New England, but all water is receding in these areas. IR satellite imagery shows some stratus clouds have been moving northward from coastal CT and the NYC Metro area. These clouds are starting to expand towards Litchfield and Berkshire County, and will spread towards far eastern New York and southern VT over the next few hours. With the increasing moisture and low level clouds, expect similar conditions overnight at KPOU as the previous night with areas of low clouds and patchy fog/br likely. Also, areas that received rainfall this aftn, have higher probability of fog/br tonight with light winds. Lows generally in the upper 50s southern Dacks to lower 60s Capital District/Hudson Valley. For Friday SPC has placed locations mainly along and south of the Mohawk Valley in marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms. The pre-storm environment wl feature slightly better deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range with sfc based CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, better synoptic scale ascent wl arrive via 700 to 500mb s/w energy in the southwest flow aloft. This lift and instability/shear parameters supports increasing areal coverage of convection by early aftn with some stronger storms possible. Primary threat given thermodynamics would be small hail, localized gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours, especially with pw values in the 1.0 to 1.50" range. Highs wl be very similar to today with values in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday night is quiet with less fog/mist potential given increasing boundary layer flow of 4 to 8 knots. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - SPC has increased the marginal to slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Saturday for parts of the area. Some storms may produce damaging winds and/or large hail, along with frequent lightning and localized heavy rainfall. Discussion: Another active day is anticipated with several rounds of showers and storms likely. SPC has increased the risk to slight (2 out of 5) for severe weather. Synoptic pattern shows approaching mid/upper lvl trof with several embedded 5h vorts rotating acrs our cwa. These strong dynamics wl interact with favorable deep layer shear of 35 to 45 knots and CAPE values of 1200 to 2000 J/kg to produce localized strong to possibly severe storms. Still some uncertainty on amount of clearing/destabilization behind morning convection, along with timing of aftn/evening energy. The pre- storm environmental conditions suggest strong shear and weak- moderate instability with good dynamics, helping increase the probability of some organized convection. In addition, localized heavy rainfall wl be possible as WPC keeps central/northern cwa in marginal risk of exceeding flash flood guidance. Highs on Saturday in the 70s to near 80F. Lows drop back into the 50s on Saturday night with lowering sfc dwpts on west/northwest winds behind boundary. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Closed mid/upper lvl circulation moves directly overhead on Sunday with diurnal driven showers likely during the late morning into the aftn hours. The greatest concentration of precip/qpf wl be acrs the higher trrn of the southern Dacks/southern Greens and eastern Catskills. Highs wl be much cooler on Sunday with values in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. Cyclonic northwest flow and associated cold air advection continues on Monday into Tues with progged 850mb temps approaching 0C. A few lingering showers are possible acrs the favorable upslope areas of the Dacks/southern Greens on Monday with cool highs only in the 60s. Tuesday is quiet with weak high pres nosing into the area, followed by more unsettled wx for mid to late week associated with our next full latitude trof. Still some uncertainty with development and timing of system, but probability of another period of unsettled wx is increasing for mid to late week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06z/Sat...A mix of low stratus and fog is likely for all TAF sites overnight into early Friday morning with flight categories fluctuating between MVFR and IFR with some brief LIFR possible as well. Cigs will gradually improve back to VFR later Friday morning and continue into the afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will likely develop Friday afternoon into the early evening. A PROB30 group was maintained for all TAF sites, though KPOU may be less likely for this activity due to being influenced by a decaying overnight MCS Friday morning and many CAMs keep afternoon activity to the north, so only including VCSH. Skies quickly trend clear Friday evening in the wake of these showers. Some low stratus and/or fog may redevelop prior to 06z/Sat but will hold off on any inclusion in the TAFs at this time. A light south or calm wind overnight will become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt on Friday. Wind will become light out of the south or calm again Friday night. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...WFO BTV LONG TERM...WFO BTV AVIATION...Rathbun ####018004628#### FXUS63 KMPX 160548 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1248 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing line of severe storms likely to grow in coverage and intensity across Wisconsin this afternoon. - Gusty SW winds to 40-50 mph tonight and Friday. - Cooler pattern tomorrow into much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Broken line of storms has fired along a cold front which is pushing into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin at this time. So far severe reports have been limited, although a few funnels/landspout-like tornadoes have been reported in central and western Minnesota. As storms push into western Wisconsin they will encounter an environment more favorable for robust storms as these areas have warmed into the lower 80s and midlevel shear is increasing. This should allow storms to grow out of the minisupercell form they had taken earlier into larger severe supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes. Earlier tornadoes across central/western MN occurred with storms that developed directly on a boundary draped across that region, while storms a bit further east and displaced from that boundary have yet to produce confirmed tornadoes. Radar shows this boundary extends southeastward and is beginning to intersect the line of storms just east and southeast of the MSP metro, and this part of western Wisconsin will be the area to watch for additional tornado development this afternoon. Given the more robust nature of these storms, stronger tornadoes will be a very real threat along with large hail 2"+. These storms will continue to push into central/southern Wisconsin this evening at which point our attention will turn to gusty southwest winds moving in behind the cold front. Cold air advection overnight will allow gusts to continue through the night and early morning, continuing into much of Friday. For this reason the current wind advisory was extended overnight and through the day Friday. As was the case this afternoon, the advisory includes southern and western Minnesota where gusts to 50 mph are possible. Friday looks to be a rather miserable day weather-wise, as in addition to the wind expect prolonged periods of light rain and temperatures struggling to rise out of the 50s for many areas. While rain will clear out Friday night, below average temperatures will persist into much of next week, along with more widespread rain chances Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Broken to overcast MVFR cigs will continue to slowly spread east throughout the TAF period as the surface low over eastern ND travels east also. Incoming wrap-around moisture to the west of the low (and moisture pooling near the low) will also cause a gradual reduction to low-end MVFR/IFR at all terminals from west to east. Rounds of rain showers are also likely as the surface low passes over MN today, with the greatest coverage looking most likely during the morning and afternoon for MN and this evening for WI. Visibilities should predominantly be above 3sm, though, brief periods below 3sm are possible. But, have not included IFR visibilities in the TAF at this time. Winds will become southwesterly, then westerly, to northwesterly as the surface low moves over central MN and into WI today. Strongest winds are expected over MN where sustained values of 15-25 knots and gusts of 25-35 knots are expected. Southwesterly LLWS of 40-45 knots is also possible this early this morning until sunrise. KMSP...Added southwesterly LLWS of 45 knots from 08-13Z this morning. Southwesterly winds strengthen tonight into this afternoon with gusts reaching 30-35 knots during the daytime hours. MVFR cigs and showers begin after 18Z with the heaviest rain expected from 21-02Z. IFR cigs look likely late Friday evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR mrng cigs likely. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. MON...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown- Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin- Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan- Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DPH AVIATION...CTG ####018007052#### FXUS63 KDMX 160548 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1248 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong and gusty winds this afternoon and evening, then again during the day on Friday. Wind Advisories are in effect for both periods across much of northern and western Iowa. - A few light showers northwest this afternoon, and more widespread across northern Iowa on Friday, but with no impact. Otherwise, the forecast is dry until at least late Sunday. - More active weather is forecast early next week, with higher (60-80%) rain chances at times between Sunday night and Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain may be possible during this period, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Today's weather has unfolded largely as forecast, with a large cyclone stacking and deepening over the Dakotas and moving quickly north northeastward toward the North Dakota/Minnesota border. A dryline trailing from the system is sparking strong thunderstorms over Minnesota, but the boundary has already moved northeast of our forecast area. An area of scattered light showers is moving across northwestern Iowa and may just clip areas around Estherville this afternoon, but with no impact and other than this the forecast is dry through tonight and into Friday morning. However, with a tightening pressure gradient and deep mixing we are seeing strong and gusty winds spreading across our area and these will continue until sunset when they should diminish somewhat as mixing decreases. The current advisory remains in effect, and while a couple of reporting sites outside the advisory have occasionally reached criteria, it has not been consistent or widespread enough to warrant expansion. Overnight tonight, while surface winds diminish somewhat, some short-range models are tracking a very subtle shortwave impulse moving over central Iowa and producing spotty light QPF. However, forecast soundings are quite dry and most solutions remain dry, so have maintained POPs below 10% accordingly. On Friday the stacked and slowly filling low will drift eastward across northern Minnesota, with an expanding shield of stratus and showers advancing around its southern flank and into our area from the northwest. Have maintained POPs in that area, diminishing from likelies (60-70% chance of rain) in our northwestern corner to lower chances (20-30%) near the Highway 30 corridor and just sprinkles south of that. In any event, no significant rainfall or thunder is anticipated with this precipitation. Of greater consequence is another surge of strong and gusty winds during the day, this time from the west northwest. While forecast soundings indicate notably shallower and less efficient mixing beneath the low cloud deck, stronger winds just off the deck and moderate cold air advection will aid in momentum transport and we should see advisory level winds once again, perhaps even over a slightly larger area than today. In light of this, and with winds expected to reach criteria in our northwestern counties just after sunrise, have elected to go ahead and issue another Wind Advisory now for Friday, encompassing the same area as today's advisory plus several more of our southwestern counties. This may need to be expanded or time-adjusted a bit tonight as more data comes in. On Friday night, as the large storm system moves away over the Great Lakes, winds should gradually diminish and clouds and any lingering sprinkles will move out. This will give way to a brief spell of quiet and relatively cool weather as a surface high pressure ridge slides across the Upper Midwest around Saturday and into Sunday. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will only range in the 60s to lower 70s south, and lows Sunday morning are forecast in the upper 30s northeast to upper 40s south; a notable change from our long recent spell of unseasonable warmth. By Sunday morning the next storm system will be taking shape as a 500 mb trough digs down over the western U.S. and Rockies. A reinforcing vorticity maximum will move from around Seattle down into the larger trough during the day on Sunday, and the entire system will then move eastward toward the Midwest and Iowa in the early part of next week. However, the interaction between the two vorticity maxima wobbling around the larger cyclonic flow is not being well-resolved by the long range models, resulting in differences between solutions that could have significant implications for hazardous weather potential in our service area. It is likely that an initial surge of theta-e and moisture advection, along the inflection zone where 500 mb flow turns to southwesterly in advance of the approaching system, will produce a swath of rain moving across Iowa from southwest to northeast on Sunday night or Monday. However, potential for heavy rain or severe weather is unclear at this time, as is the timing of this progression. After that confidence steadily decreases as the large, discombobulated trough approaches. Long range models have been trending slowly but steadily southward with heavy rain and thunderstorm chances since yesterday, but still keep these over or just south of southern Iowa and have maintained high (70-80%) POPs Monday night and Tuesday for now, tapering off thereafter as the large system moves away to the east. Despite the maintenance of high POPs in a desire for forecast consistency, overall confidence in the evolution of this system has faded, and will need to wait for better resolution of this scenario before additional details can be sussed out. Nevertheless, certainly the potential for severe thunderstorms and/or heavy rain remains for our area early next week, and should be monitored over the next several days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Clouds are expected to gradually sink south across the state through today, which will gradually lead to low ceilings late morning to afternoon across the northern terminals and into central Iowa by this evening. The low potential remains for rain showers mainly across the northern terminals as the system passes through, though confidence is not high enough to go beyond PROB30 mentions so have remained with what the previous forecast had for mentions and will continue to monitor. Winds will be quite gusty, with values up to 35+ knots for much of the area late this morning and through the afternoon. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-044>048-057>059-070-071. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lee AVIATION...Bury ####018005679#### FXUS63 KARX 160548 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1248 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather possible through 8 PM tonight. Large hail (possibly in the excess of 2.5" in diameter), tornadoes, and damaging winds (60-70 mph wind gusts) are all possible. - 35 to 50 mph wind gusts (60-90% probability of wind gusts of 45 mph or greater west of the Mississippi River) on Friday. A Wind Advisory will be likely needed west of the Mississippi River. && .UPDATE... Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Strong subsidence and steep 1000-700 mb lapse rates will continue to mix strong southwest winds to the surface. Sustained winds will range from 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph. These winds have been picking up dust from recently plowed farm fields and lowering visibilities to 2 miles or less at times. Due to these winds and dust, extended the wind advisory to 10 PM tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This afternoon and early evening At 2 PM, a cold front was located near Interstate 35 and warm front was located near Interstate 94. There was an occluded front that extends northwest back to a low pressure area near the Intersection of North Dakota/South Dakota/west-central Minnesota. In the warm sector of this system the MVFR deck of clouds is starting to break-up. Temperatures have warmed into the lower and mid-80s and dew points are in the lower to mid-60s. This is resulting in surface-based CAPES of 2500-3500 J/kg. 900-600 mb lapse rates are near 9 C/km. Effective shear remain in the 40 to 45 knot shear, so we have ample shear for supercell development. The SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows that CIN has eroded across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, and it will dissipate across the remainder of the area by 3 PM. Still see a variety of run to run solutions on when the storms will start to form. For example the HRRR was showing the initial development over west-central Wisconsin earlier this morning. It has now trended west over east-central and southeast Minnesota. We are starting to see some thunderstorm development west of the Twin Cities and south-central Minnesota just west of Interstate 35. Soundings west of the Mississippi River are a bit less favorable for very large hail than those over west-central and central Wisconsin where the NCAPEs are much greater. Hail will likely occur between a half hour to hour after supercell development. There could potentially be some isolated reports of hail greater than 2.5" in diameter in Wisconsin. The better 0-1 km helicity look to be from east-central Minnesota southeast through west-central, central, and southeast Wisconsin. These areas have a higher tornado potential. As a result, a Tornado Watch has been issued until 8 PM for part of this area. Particularly concerned about central Wisconsin where the supercells will have time to mature and where there discrete, southern supercells will have the better potential to ingest unimpeded instability and low-level helicity. This area would have the potential of stronger tornadoes. With DCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg, dry air aloft, and 40-50 knot winds between 800 and 600 mb, there will be the potential for damaging winds. Currently thinking that these winds will be in the 60 to 70 mph range. Friday into Saturday A closed low will be move slowly east from Minnesota into the Great Lakes. As shortwaves rotate around this low, there will be periodic showers. There may be even some thunderstorms on Friday afternoon as the mean surface CAPES climb up to 1000 J/kg. Rainfall totals will range from a tenth to a half inch. The highest rain totals will be mainly north of Interstate 90. From late Friday morning into Friday evening, the soundings show steep surface to 800 mb (lapse rates around 8 C/km). Soundings suggest wind gusts will be in the 35 to 50 mph. The LREF has a probability of 60-90% that the wind gusts will be 45 mph or greater during the afternoon. A Wind Advisory will be likely needed west of the Mississippi River. Monday through Wednesday A low pressure area will move slowly east from the Central Plains into the Ohio River Valley. North of this low there is a high pressure system. Still plenty of uncertainty on the northern edge of this rainfall. This is especially the case on Monday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Main forecast concern will be increased winds through Friday. At 16.06Z TAF issuance a temporary reprieve in winds seen from Nebraska to west-central Wisconsin affecting most of the local forecast area. As a result have added low level wind shear to both TAF sites for the next couple hours while surface winds are expected to abstain from gusts. This frontal boundary shifts southeast through the forecast area today increasing winds concurrent with daytime mixing. Subsequent accompanying precipitation also shifts southeast through the afternoon into the evening. Limited thunder chances primarily overnight into early Saturday morning. Little to no visibility restrictions expected but eventual MVFR ceilings potentially lowering to IFR towards the end of the 16.06Z TAF period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...JAR ####018007800#### FXUS62 KMHX 160548 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 148 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Inland troughing is expected today, followed by a cold front passage on Saturday. High pressure then builds in late in the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 9 PM Thu...Svr threat has quickly ended, and lingering showers now weakening and moving off the coast. Very warm and muggy night in the wake of the storms with lows in the 60s. Prev disc...As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Conditional severe thunderstorm risk late this afternoon and evening, best chances across the northern forecast area between 5-11 PM. Latest analysis shows wavy front draped through the Mid-Atlantic with weak troughing extending through the Carolinas. Isolated seabreeze showers beginning to develop now. This afternoon, heating of a moist boundary layer should lead to a gradual erosion of the cap, with most guidance suggesting an area of moderate to strong instability developing (MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg). Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft overtop south to southwest SFC winds should lead to deep layer shear increasing to 30-40kt. The overlap of strong instability and moderate shear is more anomalous for this time of year. Essentially we will be overlapping summer instability with spring shear. At face value, the shear/instability combo today is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, including the potential for some higher end severe weather. However, convection this afternoon and evening will be fighting against warming temps aloft and upper level ridging building in from the SW. At the sfc, forcing looks to be primarily driven by sea/bay/river breezes, as well as a weak lee trough. Aloft, a mid-level shortwave translating east out of the TN Valley may also provide some support for lift. Short-term guidance remains in good agreement depicting isolated to scattered convective development where lift is maximized...best chances across the northern portions of the forecast area. Of note, some guidance is a bit more aggressive, showing supercells upstream congealing into one or two clusters that eventually move SE towards the coast during the evening hours. With any deep convection that can develop, and be sustained, the environment appears supportive of some higher end severe weather (large hail of golf ball size or larger, and damaging winds of 70+ mph). A low-end tornado potential appears evident as well, although higher LCLs and weaker low-level flow should keep this risk limited/more brief in nature. Lastly, should clusters of thunderstorms develop, there would be a locally enhanced wind risk. This appears to be one of those potential high impact, but low confidence scenarios. The environment supports some higher end severe potential, but the above-mentioned limitations make it unclear whether or not deep convection can develop and be sustained. Warming temps aloft and mid/upper level ridging should lead to a gradual decrease in convective coverage and intensity after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening Ridge continues to build Friday combined with SW winds will usher in a very warm airmass. Though dependent on cloud cover, will likely see temps climb into the low 90s inland (possible mid 90s) and low to upper 80s for the beaches. Main question will be the convective potential Fri afternoon and evening. Strength of the ridge should limit widespread convection, though with sea/sound breezes, the strong instability (ML CAPE 3-4000 J/kg) and shear, there is potential for isolated to widely scattered development (best chances across the northern 2/3 of the area. If any showers or storms are able to develop there is potential for a few stronger storms given the instability in place. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 0400 Thursday... Hot again on Saturday in downsloping flow, push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat indices in the upper 90s FRI, mid 90s SAT. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the area, crossing overnight. Followed by a secondary backdoor front end of the weekend. Quiet and relatively cool early through midweek ahead of the next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas late week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/... As of 130 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Low confidence TSRA risk over the next 24 hrs Mid to upper level ridging will be nosing into the area today, with some subsidence and a fairly stout cap. It will be sufficiently unstable for TSRA, but ridging and the cap calls into question whether or not TSRA will impact ENC over the next 24 hrs. For now, we'll keep a VFR TAF going for all terminals given the low confidence forecast. The focus through Friday night will be TSRA well upstream across the TN and OH Valleys. Some guidance suggests this activity will survive the trek across the Appalachians and the piedmont of the Carolinas, eventually reaching ENC late Friday afternoon or Friday evening. Should this scenario play out, the environment appears supportive of strong wind gusts of 30-50kt+ and sub-VFR conditions. Stay tuned for updates with later updates in case confidence were to increase regarding the TSRA potential. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Thursday...Shower chances decrease late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the afternoon). && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Thunderstorms risk returns this afternoon and this evening Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft this afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow of 10-20 kt expected through tonight. Within this flow, occasional gusts up to 25 kt will be possible across the central waters and the Pamlico Sound. However, the risk doesn't appear significant enough to warrant any marine headlines. The modest southwesterly flow will keep seas elevated (3-5 ft). Similar pattern expected Fri, SW 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt late. The thunderstorm risk returns late afternoon into this evening, with sct coverage. Where thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, there will be a risk of large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kt. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Thursday...Boating conditions deteriorate Saturday ahead of the next cold front to cross area waters leading to probable SCA conditions in SWerly 15-25kt winds SAT afternoon and evening. Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/TL SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CEB/RJ AVIATION...RM/CEB MARINE...CQD/CEB ####018006256#### FXUS62 KMLB 160550 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 150 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 907 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 - No rain in the forecast for the next 7 days. - Increasingly hot conditions forecast for East Central Florida this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s and near record high temperatures. - Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-105 this weekend into early next week. A Moderate HeatRisk will affect individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .UPDATE... Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Forecast on track for tonight, so no significant changes needed. Dry airmass in place and high pressure extending over the west Atlantic and Florida will maintain dry conditions, light winds and mostly clear skies with some increase in thin cirrus clouds aloft overnight. Hi-res guidance is in a little better agreement showing some patchy fog development NW of I-4 late tonight through early Friday, so have continued to keep that mention in the forecast. Even if fog does not develop, the potential for settling smoke producing limited visibilities will exist along any roadways near any active or smoldering brush fires due to the lighter winds forecast. Lows tonight will be near to slightly above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Current-Fri...A mid-level ridge over the western Gulf will continue to build slowly eastward toward the south-central Gulf. Surface high pressure ridging will take up residency across the south-central FL peninsula. Light/variable morning winds will transition to light SSW/SW (5-10 mph) across the interior and onshore at the coast (late morning/early afternoon) with ECSB formation and slow march inland. Mainly dry conditions as the warming trend continues with afternoon max temps in the near 90F/L90s at the coast (Fri) and M90s into the interior. Heat indices will also be on the climb with peak afternoon values Fri in the M-U90s (perhaps 100F in a few spots across the interior). Overnight lows generally well into the 60s to L70s. Some late night patchy fog may develop north/west of the I-4 corridor into early Fri morning. Sat-Thu...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified... The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with potential for one or more record highs to be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach will approach their record highs on Fri and Sat (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to gradually creep up reaching 100 to 105 early next week. Widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and heat indices are not unusual for our summertime, they are well above normal for mid May and folks are not at all acclimated to it. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. The next (small) chance for measurable rainfall may not be until Thursday or Friday of next week, with approach/passage of a weak front, though confidence remains low this far out. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Previous Slightly Modified...High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing to around 10 knots near the coast with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore through Sat then 1-2 FT all waters Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation continue to be very low during this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some models continue to indicate the potential for patchy fog to form, mainly NW of I-4, from 09-13Z. However, confidence remains too low to mention in TAF. Light and variable winds will become W/SW around 5-8 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze will once again form in the afternoon, backing the winds E/SE along the coast and increasing to 10-14 KT(KMLB southward will shift earlier as the sea breeze forms and moves inland quicker across the south). Winds will then become light and variable once again by 00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Previous Slightly Modified...Soils will quickly dry out next several days with no rain in the forecast and temperatures climbing into the low and mid 90s. Peak heat indices from Fri-Mon will approach U90s to L-M100s. Drier air mixing down to the surface will produce min RH values at or below critical values (35 percent) over the interior especially Friday and Saturday. But winds will be light (10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 96 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 91 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 92 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 94 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 97 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson ####018008392#### FXUS61 KAKQ 160550 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 150 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today. Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and humidity Friday and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms possible ahead of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 910 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled. - Mild tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Thunderstorms have either dissipated or moved out of the area this evening with CIN increasing which should prevent further storm development. As such, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled. Mostly dry conditions are expected overnight with patchy fog possible late tonight into early Fri morning. Mild and partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the mid- upper 60s to around 70F SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Friday and Saturday afternoons/evenings, some of which could be strong to severe. - Temperatures trend warmer, with a summer-like feel on Friday. Upper air ridging will continue to influence the region, while an upper level low strengthens over the northern Midwest. The ridging and sub-sequential SW flow will bring warm temperatures to the area. Highs are looking to warm up to the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the high humidity, the day will feel hot and muggy in the lower to mid 90s during peak daytime heating hours. The big question for Friday will be if storms develop. The forcing mechanisms do not look to be strong, with ridging aloft and fairly constant pressure heights. With the highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and the trough heights near 5800 mb, the capping may be more easily broken with the weaker trough. Any lifting would have to come from some boundary, potentially as excess energy from the MCS to the northwest. The CAMs model (excluding the NAM) show initiation and a large convective complex Friday evening into overnight. There is uncertainty based on the recent CAMs, which show that storms may develop earlier. Models tend to struggle with events like this, so they are taken with caution. The coverage amount and timing remains in low confidence as model show very little agreement. If these storms can develop, they would enter a volatile environment for strong to severe storms. The moisture and warm temperatures will help the atmosphere become very favorable for high levels of instability. Recent CAMS models show values 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE. Efficient shear to support thunderstorm growth is likely with models showing values of effective shear of 40-50 kt. Lapse rates from 7.0- 7.5 C/km and strong DCAPE could be favorable for strong winds and severe hail. With this environment, Friday is an all-hazards type of threat. In fact, SPC has upgraded the entire CWA today for this event, now with most all of VA and MD under a slight risk (level 2/5) and NC under a marginal risk (level 1/5). SPC has the wind threat as the highest risk at 15% for VA and MD as well as a 2% tornado risk and 5% within the slight risk. As for Saturday, a cold front will move through the region in the afternoon, but after the daytime highs is reached in the upper 80s. The environment will be similar to today's, favorable with ample instability and shear, but yet again the forcing mechanism will be the limiting factor as the front is forecast to weaken before reaching the area. With the warm temperatures like Friday, instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE are expected. Supportive shear values for storm development are forecast as well. Additionally, SPC has the majority of the area in a slight risk (level 2/5) except for the far NW counties of the CWA. There is still lower confidence in timing and coverage, but isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible, with a few potentially becoming severe. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Drying out Sunday into the early half of next week as high pressure returns. - Unsettled weather could return Wednesday and Thursday. Behind Saturday's cold front, high pressure will move back into the region from the north. An upper air trough will take over the majority of the CONUS. The next surface low pressure system will begin to develop out in the Central Plains. With the high pressure, dry conditions will be favorable for the first half of next week. Temperatures will return to seasonable with the trough. An upper level low is favored to develop in the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, which will lead to an unsettled weather pattern. Afternoon showers and storms chance will increase in the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Friday... CIGs are VFR at the terminals to start off the forecast period. A marine layer may attempt to push inland early this morning (mainly after ~08z) with MVFR/IFR CIGs possible at SBY. Patchy fog is also possible at SBY and RIC. MVFR or IFR VIS will be possible in any fog. MVFR CIGs may linger at SBY until 14-15z. Additional showers and thunderstorms develop later today, with potentially two rounds impacting the TAF sites, the first round being this afternoon and the second round tonight. Highest confidence for showers/storms this afternoon is at RIC and PHF, where a PROB30 has been introduced from 18 to 21z. While there is a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to timing, some of the storms could be severe with gusts up to 50 kt (or higher). Outlook: Additional showers/storms will remain possible into early Saturday morning. Another round of sub-VFR CIGs and patchy fog is also possible at SBY early Saturday morning. Predominate VFR conditions return over the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday. - Locally strong to severe storms possible into tonight and again late Friday/Friday night. A weak pressure gradient across the area this aftn has led to light and variable winds, slowly shifting from SW to more of an E-SE direction across the lower Bay, and to the S elsewhere. Seas are still a bit elevated with SE swell, at 3-4 ft, with waves in the Bay/rivers/sound 1 foot or less, except near 2 ft at the mouth of the bay. Scattered storms, potentially strong to severe, are possible this evening/tonight, especially for the Bay/rivers and will be handled via MWS/SMWs as needed. Otherwise, winds increase a bit on friday, becoming S-SW ~10-15 kt, with yet another round of scattered showers and storms possible, but mainly holding off until very late in the aftn or early evening into Friday night. There may be brief period of elevated, near sub-SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across the lower James/lower Bay. Winds veer around to the W/NW Sunday and Sunday night in the wake of a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond- Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for more site- specific information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/SW NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...KMC/SW LONG TERM...KMC/SW AVIATION...AJB/RMM MARINE...LKB HYDROLOGY...