####018007562#### FXUS61 KBGM 160550 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 150 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday. Cooler weather with a few lingering showers is expected for the second half of the weekend on Sunday. Drier but still cool weather is then anticipated for the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 950 PM Update... The shower activity has tapered off across much of the area and skies have started to clear. There are some pockets of fog beginning to develop, so did add in some patchy fog for tonight through early tomorrow morning, although with increasing clouds ahead of a morning round of showers and thunderstorms, much of the fog may be through around 08-09Z. The CAMs were a bit slower with the arrival with the morning convection, so did slow down the eastward progression after 10Z. The rest of the forecast remains on track at this time. 345 PM Update: As an upper level trough axis is moving through this afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed. These thunderstorms have been on the weaker side with somewhat limited instability and very little shear. That being said, with a weak steering flow present, these showers and thunderstorms have been on the slow moving side. As a result, while flooding has not been an issue so far, there is still a possibility for some isolated instances of flash flooding. The scattered showers and slow moving isolated thunderstorms quickly diminish this evening, with dry weather expected for most of the overnight. Stratus clouds and patchy fog are likely to develop once again. A decaying MCS/QLCS quickly approaches from the west late at night into early Friday morning; likely reaching Steuben/Bradford counties around daybreak. This line should be weakening as it rolls through due to limited instability in place. It will be mild overnight with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s. The weakening line of showers and isolated thunderstorms quickly moves east across most of the forecast area Friday morning. After this initial morning convection, conditions should dry out and clouds break for partly sunny skies heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon along a cold front. However there is some question on how dry mid level air and capping could limit convective development. Otherwise, Friday will be rather warm and humid with highs in the upper 70s to mid- 80s and surface dew points in the low to mid-60s. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday night with very brief weak ridging building in and the loss of diurnal heating. Lows are expected to be mainly in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update... Warm front moves through the region Saturday morning bringing a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Showers will move from west to east making an exit by early afternoon. The timing of the initial round will suppress/lack instability, model sounding show a cap in the morning hours. Once the showers move through skies attempt to clear behind allowing for some afternoon heating. Temperatures will be warm with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s with some spots in the low 80s in northeast PA. NAM sounding shows CAPE values ranging 1,000 to 1,500 J/Kg with 30-35 knots of bulk shear. The cap is not expected to break until the afternoon hours when a cold front moves through. This will set off a second round of showers and storms with more potential to produce isolated strong to severe storms. SPC has upgraded most of our region to a slight risk with a fraction of our western region still in a marginal risk. Otherwise the frontal system moves out of the region Saturday evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending with its departure. A brief dry period follows overnight with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Upper level low continues to rotate as it moves east with wrap around moisture allowing showers to linger into Sunday. Model guidance has slight variations of the placement of the low keeping showers mainly in central NY. Although showers may also extend into northeast PA as well. Temperatures on Sunday will be cool behind the front with highs climbing into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Showers will dissipate Sunday night with drier conditions settling in. Overnight lows will fall into the low to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 PM Update... Cool pattern continues into the start of the week with northwest flow in place along with an upper level ridge building in. Dry conditions will finally hold Monday with high pressure building in at the surface. Skies will clear out by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s for most of the region with some areas in northeast PA reaching the mid 60s. Similar cool and dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with a system passing just to our south. While the next round of showers is not expected until Wednesday, there is some uncertainty on the timing and ensemble, regardless NBM guidance still supports a slight chance PoPs. Uncertainty continues towards the end of the period but model guidance hints at another chance for showers Thursday. Otherwise temperatures remain cool during this period with highs in the low 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s with some patchy frost may be possible Monday night. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 150 AM Update Mainly VFR conditions expected through daybreak at our taf sites. There is valley and patchy fog forming early this morning, along with an area of MVFR stratus clouds over the Catskills and Poconos. High clouds are starting to overspread the area from western NY at this time, and the thinking is that these will prevent thick fog from developing in the Chemung river valley. ELM did see some brief LIFR fog, but it dissipated. Kept a mention of MVFR fog in the taf here through daybreak or 10-11z. A weakening line of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms is forecast to push into our western terminals between about 12-14z this morning, reaching BGM--ITH-SYR by 13-15z and finally AVP by 14-16z. There is uncertainty in just how strong this line of showers and potential t'storms will be as it moves through. For this updated added in tempo groups at all taf sites except RME, for MVFR vsbys, CIGs with moderate to locally heavy rain...best chance to see TSRA will be at ELM with this morning's activity. PROB30 groups for additional scattered thunderstorms were added for all taf sites between about 18-23z but confidence is currently low for exact timing at any one terminal. Outlook... Tonight through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM NEAR TERM...BJG/DK SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...KL/MJM ####018006589#### FXUS62 KJAX 160552 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 152 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 08Z. Low stratus ceilings and fog are expected to advect across the Suwannee Valley towards the GNV and VQQ terminals after 08Z, with enough confidence in this scenario to indicate prevailing MVFR visibilities at VQQ towards 09Z and at GNV towards 11Z. We left TEMPO groups for LIFR conditions at VQQ through around 12Z and for IFR conditions at GNV through around 13Z. Fog and low stratus could approach JAX after sunrise, but confidence was too low to indicate sub-VFR conditions at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 14Z. West-southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained around 5 knots at the inland terminals overnight and 5-10 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop near the coastal terminals towards 18Z, with surface winds shifting to southeasterly at SGJ and south-southeasterly at SSI, where sustained speeds will increase to around 10 knots. The sea breeze may push inland to CRG towards 22Z, where winds will become south-southeasterly briefly before sunset. West-southwesterly surface winds will otherwise increase to around 10 knots by 19Z at the rest of the inland terminals, followed by speeds diminishing to around 5 knots by 06Z Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Tonight: High pressure ridge axis will remain locked in at the surface with a dry westerly steering flow in the low levels of the atmosphere, while high pressure ridge also builds in from the West across the SE US states. There are some high clouds pushing over the top of this "dirty" ridge and expect enough to call for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, but these clouds will remain fairly thin and will not prevent temps from falling into the mid/upper 60s over inland areas, along with some patchy fog around sunrise Friday morning, with the HREF still supporting some locally dense fog along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL between 4am-8am Friday morning. Otherwise milder along the Atlantic Coastal areas, with lows in the lower/middle 70s. Friday...No changes in the local weather pattern as dry and hot westerly flow will continue with ridge aloft suppressing any afternoon convection as PWATs remain only around 1 inch, while the near breezy westerly flow at 10-15G20-25 mph will keep the East Coast sea breeze pinned at the Atlantic coast allowing for the hot temps to push all the way to east with near record highs generally in the middle 90s inland, but some upper 90s possible along the I-95 corridor, especially in the urban centers with peak heat indices nudging just over 100F for the first time this year. Rainfall chances remain around 10 percent or less in this pattern. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday Night through Saturday night) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 It'll be hot and dry on Saturday across the area as high pressure sits overhead. With west/southwest winds, high temperatures will reach the 90s area-wide, including at the immediate Atlantic coast. Heat indices will not be much higher than actual temperatures given drier air in place, but they will approach the upper 90s to near 100 in the afternoon. Mild low temperatures are forecast Friday and Saturday nights, only falling into the mid 60s to low 70s. With calm winds overnight, patchy fog is likely for inland northeast Florida, with locally dense fog possible near the I-75 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Above average temperatures with highs in the 90s continue through Wednesday, with mainly dry conditions. A front will sink southward and lay across central Georgia on Sunday, before lifting back northward on Monday. Isolated showers and storms will be possible across southeast Georgia on Sunday as the front sits nearby, but chances are only at about 15-20% at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 No headlines expected as high pressure ridge axis remains south of the local waters over the next 5 days, while a weak frontal boundary will stall well north of the waters over the SE US states into the Carolinas. This will continue a mostly offshore West to Southwest flow at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft, with a daily Southeast to South sea breeze development along the NE FL/SE GE coast each afternoon and evening. A few of the evening nocturnal southerly surges may come close to 15-20 knots going into the weekend, but not enough to warrant any headlines with this afternoon's forecast package. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Risk into the weekend as surf/breakers remain in the 1-2 ft range along with a pinned East Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic Coast each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist through the weekend, with minRH falling into the 30-35% range Friday. Near record temperatures and occasionally breezy southwest to west winds expected into the weekend. Dispersion will be good on Friday, with high dispersion levels Saturday, especially for Southeast GA. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites... THU 5/15...JAX 97/1967...CRG 91/1991...GNV 97/1985...AMG 94/1990 FRI 5/16...JAX 96/1995...CRG 94/1994...GNV 98/1896...AMG 95/1990 SAT 5/17...JAX 96/1995...CRG 93/2001...GNV 96/1915...AMG 94/2001 SUN 5/18...JAX 96/1899...CRG 93/2001...GNV 97/1930...AMG 95/2001 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 68 93 70 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 90 71 93 74 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 97 67 97 70 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 95 69 96 70 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 95 66 95 67 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 94 66 93 68 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018008100#### FXUS61 KOKX 160553 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 153 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front remains nearby tonight. A surface trough then moves across during Friday, followed by another on Saturday. A low to the north sends a cold front through Saturday night. This low lingers in New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through Monday as high pressure pushes in. High pressure remains in control Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The forecast remains mostly on track, but will need to continue to monitor for the potential need for a dense fog advisory for at least the coastal zones tonight. Light winds with light turbulent mixing potential at the base of the inversion along with low dewpoint depressions have already resulted in patchy dense fog across Long Island and a few other coastal locations. SPS is posted for the time being. Dry weather otherwise with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A subtle mid level shortwave moves across Friday with some associated positive vorticity advection. At the surface, the frontal boundary across the area dissipates, leaving a general weak pressure gradient between low pressure well to the north and west and high pressure well to the south and east. Light southerly flow at the surface is expected. A warmer day is expected. NBM/NBM 50th percentile combination used for daytime high temperatures, well into the 70s for most locations and some locations reaching 80. More instability will be generated at the surface as a result, making for a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal risk for damaging winds with these thunderstorms, particularly for areas that have more instability. The convection trends downward Friday night with the loss of diurnal heating. Winds in lower levels increase. This will keep warmer min temperatures Friday night. Again used combination of NBM and NBM 50th percentile, with lows ranging from upper 50s to lower 60s. Fog will be possible but was not put in forecast due to uncertainty with how well mixed boundary layer could be. Upper level low approaches the region Saturday with greater height falls. At the surface, a cold front approaches from the north and west. There is a likely a pre-frontal trough that develops that will be the focus for convective initiation. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase during the day with highest chances mid afternoon through early evening. The southerly flow increases Saturday and with further increase in winds in 5-10 kft, bulk shear increases. Warmer temperatures are forecast also using NBM and NBM 50th percentile. Outside of Twin Forks and SE Connecticut which have highs more in the lower 70s, rest of area is in mid 70s to near 80 with NYC Metro and parts of NE NJ getting more into the lower 80s. With more low level instability and more bulk shear, there is more of a risk for damaging winds with thunderstorms. SPC has western parts of the region with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * A cold front cuts off precip Saturday night. * Becoming mostly sunny on Sunday with only slight chances for showers. * Dry & quiet Monday into Tuesday. * Another frontal system may bring a return to rainfall Wednesday into Thursday. A surface low in southern Canada/northern New York sends a cold front through Saturday night. Showers and/or any remaining thunderstorms diminish with the passage of the cold front with drier air getting advected in. Mostly sunny skies take over as high pressure gradually builds in from the northwest. To our northeast, low pressure will continue to exit into New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through Monday. This will lead to breezy W/WNW winds from an increased pressure gradient through Monday. An upper-level trough to our west on Saturday passes east SUnday night. As it moves farther away, it takes the surface low with it farther out to sea Monday night and thereafter. This allows a ridge to our west with high pressure at the surface to fully take hold, if briefly, Tuesday into Tuesday night. Dry conditions continue with winds becoming light under a weak pressure gradient. A frontal system from the Great Plains then moves into the Ohio or Tennessee River Valleys on Tuesday, moving through or in the vicinity of our region Wednesday into Thursday. Expecting showers during this timeframe. Too soon to call chances for thunderstorms. MOdel guidance still varies with timing, magnitude, and track of this frontal system. Have gone with chance POPs Wednesday into Thursday, as a result. Temperatures look to cool each day in the long-term period. Highs on Sunday will be in the low/mid 70s with all highs in the mid/upper- 60s by Wednesday. Nightly lows will range from the mid-50s to the mid-40s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure trough remains in the vicinity tonight. Another trough approaches from the west on Friday. Expecting IFR or lower overnight. Improvement to MVFR Friday afternoon, but with potential showers. A passing thunderstorm is possible, mainly for the NYC terminals, but the chances for this are decreasing. Improvement to VFR for some terminals late in the day such as the metro terminals and KSWF. Conditions deteriorate once again for all terminals to IFR or lower Friday night. Light and variable winds tonight becoming southerly at 10 kt or less for Friday and continue into Friday night with outlying terminals becoming light and variable again. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of IFR onset could be off by an hour or two for KTEB and KLGA. Timing of improving categories on Friday may also be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night: IFR or lower. Saturday: IFR to start, improving to MVFR mid-morning, then becoming VFR in the afternoon with showers likely, and a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland. W winds G20- 25kt. Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Dense fog advisory has been issued for all waters tonight through much of Friday morning. Otherwise, generally weak pressure gradient in place in the short term through Saturday with conditions remaining below small craft advisory thresholds. Winds and waves are currently expected to fall below SCA criteria Saturday night through Tuesday. However, wind gusts may near SCA criteria on all waters Sunday under an increased pressure gradient. && .HYDROLOGY... Basin averaged amounts with showers and thunderstorms is expected to be near quarter to a half inch with locally higher amounts through Saturday. Thunderstorms could result in areas experiencing minor flooding, especially within urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. With increasing translational speed to thunderstorms, flash flooding is not expected. There are currently no hydrologic concerns Saturday night through the middle of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/BR NEAR TERM...JC/JM/BR SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...JP MARINE...JC/JM/BR HYDROLOGY...JM/BR