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FXUS61 KGYX 160638

AFDGYX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

238 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A weak pattern with low pressure offshore will support humid 

conditions and hit and miss showers this afternoon and evening.

Unsettled weather continues for the weekend as a more robust 

system brings showers and thunderstorm chances by Saturday 

night. Sunday will continue unsettled with an upper level low

overhead. Monday looks a bit improved but shower chances are

still expected.



&&



.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

The dense fog advisory remains in effect for the coastal plain

and portions of central ME for early this morning. Several

observations continue to show 1/4 mile or less visibilities. 



The fog will thin and lift during the morning hours and the low

clouds will thin as well allowing for periods of strong solar

radiation. This will yield high temperatures well into the 70s 

to around 80 at many locations. The caveat will be along the

coast where stratus and fog will likely remain, especially on

the Midcoast. This along with easterly winds will allow for much

cooler temperatures there.



While the temperatures and dewpoints will aid in a good amount

of surface-based CAPE this afternoon, forcing for ascent will be

minimal at best so most of the afternoon will remain dry aside

from a couple of pop-up showers and storms here and there. A

slightly more organized short wave trough along with height

falls will approach late in the day possibly allowing for a 

somewhat greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms into the 

evening hours. 



Fog should start rolling back inland toward sunset.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

Dense fog will once again be possible on the coastal plain 

overnight as the air mass remains rather moist and stagnant with

light onshore flow.



Otherwise, after a few evening showers and perhaps a few

thunderstorms it should be mostly dry overnight. However, a few

showers and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as 

heights continue to fall.



Upper level low pressure approaches on Saturday along with an

attendant warm front and occlusion. The increased forcing for

ascent will allow for a showery and cooler day. The warm front

and associated triple point will attempt to get into southern NH

during the afternoon and this would allow for temperatures there

to rise well into the 70s while most of the rest of the forecast

area remains in the 50s and 60s. This warm front and triple

point could be a focus for more robust thunderstorms across

southern and perhaps western NH during the afternoon hours and

this will continue to be monitored.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Points:



-Rainy weekend ahead, with most consistent rainfall expected 

 from heavy showers Saturday afternoon.



-Showery conditions on Sunday with widespread light rain north of 

the mountains.



-Showery weather wraps up Monday evening, with a drier 

Tuesday/Wednesday.



-Unsettled weather returns for the end of next week.



Details:



Sunday, the center of the low moves across northern NH and ME, 

allowing for more light rain Sunday with some showers also making 

down to the rest of NH and Maine. The low may hover over NH and ME 

for a while, continuing the showers possibly through Monday evening.



Conditions should dry out at least a little by Tuesday as the 

aforementioned low moves off into the Atlantic. The end of the week 

may feature unsettled weather as another upper-level low moves in 

from the southwest.



&&



.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Short Term...IFR to LIFR conditions likely at most terminals

through about 13z (especially coastal terminals). Vsbys and cigs

will rise through the morning hours with many locations VFR by

early afternoon except perhaps at RKD. Low stratus and fog rolls

back in tonight.



Long term...Restrictions may be down during showers, a few 

thunderstorms and rain that will be moving through the area 

Saturday through Monday. At this time, the best chances to see 

reduced restrictions look to arrive Saturday evening as a front 

moves across the NH and ME.



&&



.MARINE...

Short Term...Light winds and seas generally less than 3 feet are

expected through today and tonight. However, fog will be an

issue on the waters today and tonight with vsbys 1/2 mile or

less.



Long Term...Southeasterly flow at 8-14kts expected on Saturday. 

A low moves across the area, shifting winds to the southwest at

7-10kts by Sunday. As the low continues to move out to sea, 

winds shift to northwesterlies at 11-17kts by Monday, with winds

staying there through Wednesday morning. Seas of 2-4ft are 

expected Saturday through Wednesday.



&&



.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ018>028.

NH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NHZ014.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$





NEAR TERM...Ekster

SHORT TERM...Ekster

LONG TERM...Palmer