####018008109#### FXUS62 KMLB 171334 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 934 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Hot and dry weather persists this weekend and into mid next week with above normal to record high temperatures, as well as peak heat indices rising to 100-105. Drought conditions are forecast to worsen/expand and sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast - There is a Moderate HeatRisk Today to Sunday and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk on Monday to Wednesday - A weak front will bring slim rain chances late next week but a change in wind direction will bring somewhat lower (more seasonable) temperatures && .UPDATE... Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Local radar imagery shows dry conditions and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cirrus clouds over east central. High pressure (~1016mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of America and Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Winds are from the west-southwest at 5-10mph. Dry and hot conditions are expected today with high pressure over Florida. ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicate temperatures in the 97.5th to maximum percentile for this time of year this afternoon over east central Florida. Above normal (~5-10F+) to record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies are expected. Heat index values between 98-103F are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk for most of east central Florida today. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate hydration or effective cooling. It is recommended that those who spend extended periods of time outside this afternoon and early evening to drink plenty of water, wear light- colored clothing, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade, and take breaks in an air conditioned facility. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Today-Sun...A mid-level ridge (~592dm) centered over the Gulf will nose E across the FL peninsula and result in continued subsidence across the area. In the low levels, Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across south central FL, promoting a light offshore wind flow to start the day, turning onshore behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Overall dry, but a slight uptick in moisture will produce dewpoints a skosh higher day by day allowing peak heat indices to reach between 100-105. This means there should be a little more fair weather cumulus development than previous days but rain chances remain too low to mention (less than 15 percent). There will continue to be cirrus/cirrostratus streaming SE. These high clouds will be pretty thin so they should not affect max temps much but could filter the sun at times. Widespread max temps in the mid 90s across interior sections as well as inland portions of the coastal counties. Coastal Volusia will again reach the mid 90s since the sea breeze will be significantly delayed and should not penetrate much inland. This will put Daytona Beach in a good position to equal (or even exceed) its record high of 95F today. We'll also be watching Sanford approach its record highs both today and Sunday (96F and 95F, respectively). Orlando has a longer period of record so it's typically more difficult to set records there but a couple of longstanding records (both 97F from 1915 and 1930) will be at risk for a tie. Mon-Wed...The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with potential for more record highs to be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach will again approach their record highs on Mon and Tue (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 100 to 105 each day just inland from the coast. Thu-Fri...A weak cool front is forecast to cross the area Thu but moisture looks meager so rain chances are only 20-30% and where it does rain amounts should be paltry. High pressure behind the front will produce a wind shift out of the NE-E. This switch to an onshore flow will bring down max temps to more seasonable levels, mid-upper 80s coast and around 90 inland Fri. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing 10-14 knots near the coast behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT through the period except building to 3 FT offshore Tue night/Wed. Chance for rain continues to be very low during this period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR and dry conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning will become S/SW and increase to 10-14 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon from TIX southward, backing the winds onshore. Winds will then become light and variable once again this evening (00-01Z) before winds become S/SW at 5-8 KT by mid morning Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Unseasonably hot and dry conditions are forecast to persist this weekend and early next week. With very low rain chances and relatively low RH values, soil moisture will continue to decrease. Min RH values are forecast to fall between 30-35 percent today and Sunday over the north interior. The west winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph so conditions will not meet Red Flag. The offshore winds will turn onshore near the coast in a sea breeze each afternoon and hold min RH values along the coast south of the Cape near 50 percent. Dispersion values will be Very Good across Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties both days with Fair to Good dispersion across southern and immediate coastal sections. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Record highs today through Wednesday: DAB 17-May 95 1963 LEE 17-May 96 1991 SFB 17-May 96 2001 MCO 17-May 97 1915 MLB 17-May 97 1963 VRB 17-May 95 2023 FPR 17-May 95 2008 DAB 18-May 97 1995 LEE 18-May 98 1996 SFB 18-May 95 2024 MCO 18-May 97 1930 MLB 18-May 96 1995 VRB 18-May 96 2024 FPR 18-May 98 1995 DAB 19-May 94 1995 LEE 19-May 94 1991 SFB 19-May 97 1960 MCO 19-May 98 1908 MLB 19-May 95 1995 VRB 19-May 95 1995 FPR 19-May 97 1995 DAB 20-May 94 2008 LEE 20-May 95 2017 SFB 20-May 95 2017 MCO 20-May 96 1935 MLB 20-May 95 1980 VRB 20-May 93 2020 FPR 20-May 96 1980 DAB 21-May 97 1998 LEE 21-May 97 1962 SFB 21-May 100 1962 MCO 21-May 98 1908 MLB 21-May 96 1998 VRB 21-May 95 2015 FPR 21-May 97 2008 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 96 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 0 MLB 92 73 90 73 / 0 0 10 0 VRB 93 72 92 72 / 0 0 10 0 LEE 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 97 71 97 71 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 0 FPR 92 71 92 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Watson