####018006029#### FXUS61 KRLX 171346 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 946 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses today. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 944 AM Saturday... Southwesterly winds are picking up this morning ahead of the anticipated cold front which is just starting to move into our Ohio counties from the west. GOES-19 satellite shows mostly clear skies across the forecast area in the wake of last nights weather. There are some clouds just to our north along the front which may drop down into the northern lowlands and mountains later on. Also, added some chance PoPs across the mountains later this afternoon and evening to account for typical, post- frontal upslope flow. Otherwise, expecting mostly clear and dry for much of the day. As of 400 AM Saturday... Since the bulk of precipitation has already exited the area, the flood watch has been allowed to expire. As of 330 AM Saturday... Rain and a few thunderstorms continue to slide east out of the area early this morning. Although a cold front will pass through later in the morning, drier conditions are expected to return to the majority of the area. That being said, an isolated shower or storm could develop over the northern fringes of the CWA as an upper trough pulls moisture back into the area this afternoon and evening. Strong flow aloft is expected to mix down to the surface during the day, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts possible throughout the lowlands while the higher ridges of the northeast mountains could gust to around 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect for southeast Randolph and northeast Pocahontas counties from mid morning into tonight. Gusts will then gradually ease overnight. Daytime temperatures are expected to range from 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s in the mountains, then temperatures lower into the mid 40s to 50s for tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Saturday... Model consensus has us quiet for Sunday amid zonal flow and upper level ridging building in through the day and for much of Monday. The NAM and EURO have a different story for the latter part of Monday with a disturbance moving in from a warm frontal boundary due to a low pressure system out west along the Rocky Mountains. Since the other models have a mostly dry warm frontal boundary elected to maintain the blended model guidance that provides PoPs which equated to slight chance to chances of shower activity for mainly the southern half of the CWA. This solution is less likely, however due to model differences the best solution would be from an ensemble blend inserted into the forecast. Thereafter, the warm frontal boundary pushes north through Tuesday and provides shower and thunderstorm potential while in the warm sector of the system through the rest of this period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 AM Saturday... The aforementioned low pressure system moves into the region and makes a path directly across our area bringing a cold front through on Wednesday. As the system moves toward the northeast wrap around flow will keep chances of precipitation on the table through most of Thursday along with thunderstorm potential. The EURO has the system rotating almost stationary to our north which would keep unsettled weather around, but the other models have the system kicking out toward the northeast. Chances of precipitation will still exist for the rest of period, however it will likely be less active weather taking place going into the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 AM Friday... VFR flight conditions are expected for the majority of the TAF period, though an upper disturbance may usher clouds into the area during the day. This disturbance could also prompt isolated showers to form near CKB/EKN this afternoon and evening; however, confidence in development is low enough to leave mention out of the TAFs. Southwest to westerly winds will be breezy today, with 25 to 35 kt gusts expected in the lowlands and around 40 kt gusts possible over the higher mountain ridges. Winds gradually weaken overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds may fluctuate today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday and continue at times into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ/20 NEAR TERM...20/LTC SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...20 ####018003613#### FXAK67 PAJK 171348 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 548 AM AKDT Sat May 17 2025 .SHORT TERM...Little cloud cover improvement expected for Saturday as a relatively stagnant pattern continues for most of the panhandle. It is possible to see some clearing for the southern panhandle and outer coast as dry air is advected from the west around the decaying low in the central gulf. Not expecting that air to permiate far into the inner channels, so expect rain and drizzle for most of the day. Clouds are expected to dissipate in Canada, which would drive a thermal gradient between SE AK and British Columbia. This gradient would encourage some breezier conditions in places like Skagway. .LONG TERM...Continuing form the short term, confidence continues for decreasing cloud cover and weak outflow developing Sunday night into Monday for the northern panhandle as a near gale force low approaches the southern panhandle. This feature is expected to stall SW of Prince of Wales Island, leading to persistent showers with heaviest rain rates expected Monday morning. Some model differences remain in the track of the low, which could lead to more of the panhandle receiving light rain. Overall as this low is expected to dissipate, the overall flow will shift onshore, with light showers and breaks continuing into mid to late next week. For the northern panhandle, clearing skies and developing weak outflow with downsloping winds will lead to warmer daytime highs to start the week. && .AVIATION.../Until 12Z Sunday/...CIG & VIS conditions will generally progressively improve from around the MVFR / IFR range up to around the VFR / MVFR range as a ridge of high pressure builds-in over the Alaskan Panhandle through the period. As far as winds & LLWS are concerned, they will remain light / benign through the period. && .MARINE...Outside: Main threat for the outer gulf is westerly fresh breezes near Chatham/Sumner ocean entrances and west coast of Prince of Wales. Expect fresh breezes to shift eastward into Dixon Entrance by late morning/early afternoon with gentle breezes left in its wake. WSW swell to continue over the next 12 hours with significant heights near 5 to 7ft. A gale force low center will be located off the coast of Haida Gwaii late Sunday increasing ESE winds to near-gale force for our coastal waters in the southern Panhandle. There is growing confidence for gale force southerly winds in Hecate Strait Monday which would drive fresh seas of 9 to 12ft into far southern Clarence Strait. Inside: As advertised, most areas in the inner channels are light air conditions with the exception of Lynn Canal near Eldred Rock, which had stubbornly held onto fresh breezes throughout the night. Today's marine forecast will be directly tied to daytime heating in Canada, and how fast cloud cover will burn off this morning. Current forecast represents cloud cover burn off, and a thermal gradient developing between British Columbia and SE AK. Moderate breezes in Icy Strait, Point Coverden, and upper Stephens Passage on the backside of Douglas look to begin around noon today. Lynn Canal is expected to stay around 20 knots for the day before finally relaxing tonight. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...JLC MARINE...NC/AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau