####018006167#### FXUS64 KLZK 160719 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A weak front dropped SE into NWRN sections of the state on Thu...triggering some strong/briefly SVR convection along/south of this boundary. This boundary remains across NWRN AR early this Fri morning...mostly evident in the dewpt gradient across NWRN sections. New convection is firing along/south of this boundary once again early this morning as an upper disturbance lifts NE in the SW flow aloft over this front. Some of this convection will have the capability to become strong to SVR this morning as it moves NE...with large hail the primary threat. Some damaging winds could also be seen...but will have to break through the low level inversion...with SFC based instability limited/elevated CIN. This will also keep the tornado threat low...but still possible. There will be a lull in convective activity later this morning as the morning convection lifts NE...and a warm front lifts north of AR. A dryline the west will then move east towards AR by mid afternoon...with an upper shortwave passing east...north of AR...around the south edge of a closed upper low over the NRN Plains. New convection looks to fire along/ahead of this dryline...then move mainly east. Initially...convection looks to initiate along/north of the MO/AR state line late this morning into the early afternoon hrs...lifting NE away from AR. Further south...initiation will come later in the afternoon/early evening as the capping inversion holds a bit longer before the dryline forcing/upper energy should overcome this inversion. Once the convection develops...severe thunderstorms will be possible...with very large hail the primary threat. This is due to very impressive CAPE of 3-4k J/kg or higher...with thick CAPE profiles and mid-level dry air in the hail growth zone. Forecast thermal profiles suggest up to baseball size...or maybe some potential of even larger hail. Damaging winds will also be a significant threat given this same instability/dry air combination. Tornadoes will also be possible...but low level SRH will be a bit more limited (100-200 m2/s2 0-3 SRH). Even so...given potential steep lapse rates forecast in the low levels...this could certainly overcome any relative low SRH...along with the very impressive CAPE. The tornado threat becomes higher across NERN sections and points further NE as the low level SRH increases. By late Fri night...any convection that develops will move east/SE into the overnight period before convection exits the state to the SE early Sat morning. The dryline will retreat back west...but a cold front will drop south into NRN sections of the state by sunrise Sat morning. More convection looks to develop to the SW of AR early Sat afternoon...eventually lifting NE into SWRN AR by late Sat afternoon. The overall threat for seeing SVR Wx will be a bit lower with this convection on Sat afternoon/evening...but plenty of instability will remain ahead of the the convection as it approaches from the SW. While the eventual storm mode looks to be a cluster or MCS by the time it gets to AR...large hail and damaging winds will again be the primary threats. While the overall forecast instability will be a bit lower...the nature of the thermal profiles will suggest very large hail once again...potentially up to baseball size on Sat. Most of the SVR threat will be across the SWRN half of the state...or mainly south of the SFC frontal boundary. The active pattern will continue through the rest of the weekend into early next week...with chances for convection continuing. The potential for SVR Wx will be a bit more limited during this period given a bit of ridging over the state. However...forecast instability looks to remain plentiful given warm/humid conditions. As a result...still think some strong to briefly SVR convection will be possible both days. The potential for more organized SVR potential will come on Tue as a potent upper shortwave moves east across the region...and a cold front surges SE through the state. Strong/SVR TSRA will be possible with this system on Tue/Tue night as a result. However...exact details regarding timing and overall specific threats are uncertain this far out in time. Behind this front...the forecast will become cooler and drier...and more importantly...less active by the end of the forecast for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Largely VFR conditions will give way to MVFR or lower cigs by daybreak across area terminals with slow improvement throughout the day. Occasional RA/TS development will be seen through the period with some early morning activity expected across the northern half of the state through 16/14z. Another round of activity is expected after 16/18z across the area. Winds through the period will become S/SW at or above 10 kts with gusts above 20 kts at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 86 63 88 66 / 60 40 10 60 Camden AR 91 69 91 69 / 20 50 30 50 Harrison AR 84 57 84 62 / 50 0 10 60 Hot Springs AR 88 66 90 69 / 30 30 20 50 Little Rock AR 87 67 90 70 / 40 50 10 50 Monticello AR 91 71 91 72 / 10 60 20 40 Mount Ida AR 88 64 90 68 / 30 30 20 50 Mountain Home AR 85 58 85 62 / 70 10 10 60 Newport AR 87 66 88 69 / 60 50 10 60 Pine Bluff AR 90 69 90 71 / 20 60 10 50 Russellville AR 86 62 90 68 / 60 30 10 50 Searcy AR 87 64 89 69 / 50 50 10 60 Stuttgart AR 89 69 90 72 / 30 60 10 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...67 ####018007225#### FXUS64 KEWX 160720 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 220 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon and early evening for portions of South Central Texas. - Low chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms today and Saturday. Low cloud cover continues to build over the area early this morning which will aid in warm morning lows in the 70s for the majority of South Central Texas. Low clouds will slowly break up later this morning, though scattered mid and high level clouds will be seen through the afternoon. Another hot day is forecast with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees, hottest near the Rio Grande. The dryline to the west doesn't advance too far east today, possibly only as far as Val Verde County. With dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s ahead of it, heat index values will be high again this afternoon with the hottest values in the Rio Grande Plains up to 111 degrees. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for this afternoon and evening which includes most of the I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains and extends west into the Rio Grande Plains. Additionally, a few thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front in North Central Texas late this afternoon or evening. While most guidance keeps activity north of our area, a few models do generate isolated thunderstorms in some of our far northern counties near this boundary. Any storms that do develop may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. More low clouds and warm overnight lows in the 70s are expected tonight leading into another hot day. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are seen Saturday afternoon and early evening ahead of a surging dryline. Any activity is mainly expected over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, though some storms develop in Mexico and move over the Rio Grande. Right now, SPC has a level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms for these areas on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Record breaking heatwave continues with additional temperature records likely being broken through Monday. - Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. -Chances for showers and storms Tuesday with arrival of a cold front though confidence of timing and strength is low. The forecast period starts off with decreasing storm chances as these storms that formed early during the day slowly move out of area Saturday night. Depending on the conditions during the day, with how warm and unstable we get some of these storms could be strong to severe. Currently the SPC has our area in a level 1 of 5 risk roughly along and west of the I-35 Corridor down into the Carrizo Springs area. Areas east of this line could see storms but chances are significantly less. Heading into next week, the heat continues though air temperatures start slowly decreasing however the feels like remains in the 100-110 degree range through Monday. This is in response due to an upper- level trough axis to our west which starts to deepen providing some weak disturbances that move into the region. These disturbances will limit just how high actual air temps can go due to increased moisture and abundant cloud cover. In response rain and storm chances look to increase across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor with the best chances late Monday into most of Tuesday as a cold front makes it way across the area. Additionally, the dryline ahead of it could become active during the day Tuesday, thus producing low chances (20-30%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms across these areas. Models are still out of sync so look forward to more details to come into focus as we get closer. Regarding temperatures the cold front mentioned prior could bring some temporary relief from the heat, however confidence in the strength and position is low at this time. Regardless, temperatures will remain well above normal through the end of the forecast period with high temperature records likely to be tied or broken. Towards the end of the long term, temperatures cool somewhat into the low 90s vs the upper 90s/100s that we previously have been seeing. Please make sure you and your loved ones have a way to stay cool during this early season heatwave. Additional heat safety information and resources can be found at the following websites: www.heat.gov and www.weather.gov/safety/heat && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will be short lived for I-35 sites as MVFR ceilings expand west into the area. A temporary period with IFR ceilings may develop prior to sunrise at KSAT and KSSF. KDRT will remain VFR overnight with all sites returning to VFR conditions late this morning, though mid and high level cloud cover will be common through this evening. Wind in the eastern half of the area will become gusty mainly this morning, dropping off slightly in the afternoon at I-35 sites. KDRT remains below 10 kts with variable directions as the dryline boundary moves back and forth across the area during the period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN) FRI SAT SUN 05/16 05/17 05/18 -------------------------------------------- AUS 97/2018* 97/2018 97/2022 ATT 99/2022* 99/2022 98/2022 SAT 97/2022* 100/2022 101/2022 DRT 107/2013 105/2013 107/2024 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 76 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 75 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 96 74 96 73 / 20 10 30 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 79 101 79 / 0 10 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 75 98 73 / 10 20 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 99 74 100 73 / 0 10 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 98 76 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 100 76 101 76 / 0 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio- Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Wilson- Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...CJM Aviation...27 ####018005407#### FXUS62 KTAE 160723 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 323 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Upper-level ridging builds in today with high pressure nosing in over the Gulf from the western Atlantic. Thus, after some morning clouds, we'll have abundant sunshine but the heat is on again. Highs will reach the mid-90s away from the coast with upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. A muggy night is anticipated with another round of clouds and patchy fog as a weak shortwave passes through the Tennessee Valley. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Today's forecast for TLH is 96, which would break the record of 95 set in 1915 and 1962. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The ridge flattens over the weekend as a couple weak shortwaves move across the Tennessee Valley. This could bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms to the northern fringes of the forecast area, mainly north of a Dothan to Fitzgerald line. Rain chances are around 15-20% at most. We'll have to see how upstream complexes of storms evolve if they can make it this far south. The environment on Saturday is characterized by ample instability and quite a bit of DCAPE given mid-level dry air. There's also sufficient deep-layer shear on the order of 40-50 kt. Thus, if storms can make it to our area late Saturday afternoon and evening, some strong gusty winds are possible in the strongest storms. Could be a sneaky setup, and SPC does have our far northern row of Georgia counties clipped by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. A similar environment remains in place for Sunday as well. Temperatures remain toasty with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Ridging returns again for Monday and Tuesday with heat remaining the main concern. Highs remain in the mid-90s through Tuesday. More substantial troughing begins to dig over the eastern US by the middle of the week, bringing some reprieve in temperatures. A cold will move across the southeast, bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms to the forecast with rain chances around 30-40%. The heat, as a result, will be less oppressive with temperatures returning back to the mid to upper 80s by late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Some low stratus is beginning to develop near ECP and DHN, which will gradually spread eastward through the night. IFR to LIFR cigs are expected through about 13z, gradually lifting back to VFR after 15-16z. Some fog is possible with the greatest potential of categorical restrictions at VLD, TLH, and ECP. Some gusty SW winds are possible at ECP and DHN after 17-18z up to 20 kt. Light SW winds are expected elsewhere. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure over the western Atlantic nosing into the eastern Gulf will result in predominantly light southwesterly winds for the next several days. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet each day with no significant marine impacts anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High dispersions are expected across inland areas over the next couple of days thanks to southwesterly transport winds around 10-15 mph and high mixing heights near 5,000 feet each afternoon. Closer to the coast, dispersions will still be good each day. The main concern will be the heat with temperatures in the mid-90s during the afternoon with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100. A few isolated storms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons, mainly north of a line from Dothan to Albany. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 No flooding is expected over the next couple of days. Some locally heavy downpours are possible in some storms this weekend, but these should be quick moving and should not result in flood concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 69 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 85 73 85 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 93 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 Albany 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 96 69 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 90 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 72 84 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Young MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young ####018005167#### FXUS63 KAPX 160723 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 323 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and somewhat windy conditions results in elevated wildfire danger today. - Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight. - Cool weather and cloudy skies return this weekend. High pressure continues quiet weather through the midweek. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Occluded front, tied to deep low pressure spinning across the northern Plains, sweeping rapidly east across the area early this morning. Band of decaying showers and embedded thunderstorms along and just ahead of this front, with aggressive dry slot punching in just behind it. Front will exit stage right early this morning as dry slot overspreads the entirety of northern Michigan today. Upstream low pressure and secondary cold front make a run at our area tonight, drumming up another round of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms in the process. Primary Forecast Concerns: Temperature/wind/relative humidity trends today (focus on fire weather concerns) and showers and thunderstorm evolution tonight. Details: Dry slot today is impressive, resulting in mostly sunny skies...with just some increasing clouds later this afternoon into the evening. Good vertical mixing with those clear skies, helping drive some decent southwest winds and warm temperatures across the region. Expecting highs well up into the 80s across interior northern lower Michigan, with reading just a smidge cooler for areas north of the big bridge and near those big waters. That mixing will also help plummet relative humidity rather aggressively by this afternoon. Combine that with those warm temperatures and gusty southwest winds and the stage is set for elevated wildfire concerns this afternoon. Will address that issues in our hazardous weather products/graphics and fire weather products. Slug of deeper moisture arrives tonight ahead of that secondary cold front and vort max wrapping around parent upstream low pressure. Expect scattered to numerous showers to spread back overhead quickly this evening. A few embedded thunderstorms also expected. Cannot completely rule out an isolated severe storm or two given relatively steep mid level lapse rates and modest shear through the convective column. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary concerns with any more organized updraft. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Midlevel closed low pressure at the base of a shortwave trough will be centered over the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the long term. Chances of precipitation begin to dissipate as midlevel heights rise and push subsidence across the northwoods through Tuesday. A few scattered showers will linger across parts of Michigan through Saturday as the surface level low begins to dissipate and slowly move towards the northeast. Besides the on and off showers, biggest noticing feature will be the temperatures falling well below normal for mid May. Highs this Saturday and Sunday will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s as cold air pulls in from the north. Cloudy skies and showers will give more of a early spring or even a fall feeling, but temperatures will slowly build into the 60s and even low 70s by midweek. At the same time; troughing currently over the Pacific Northwest will work its way eastward, reaching the Great Lakes region returns chances of precip around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Ensemble guidance depicts this system weakening with time and lingering across the region through the rest of the week. Light- scattered showers will continue this pattern of dreary weather to close out the forecast period. Poor organization and a lack of deep atmospheric moisture will keep rain amounts low and any risk of severe weather at a minimum. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Watching a couple of things this evening: first is squall line advancing across eastern Wisconsin toward Lake Michigan...likely reaching KMBL around 0200Z...KTVC 0300-0330Z...KPLN 0330Z- 0430Z...and KAPN/KCIU after 0500Z. Gusty winds (likely from the south/southwest) a good bet with this line of storms as they pass through...but should only be a 1-2 hours window for this. Second thing is sneaky area of fog/St over northern Lake Huron getting pushed toward northeast Lower...and with loss of daytime heating/mixing concerned about an LIFR fog/St deck spreading into KAPN after 0100Z through about the time the line of storms is expected to roll through. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...JPB ####018009369#### FXUS64 KFWD 160721 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 221 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms (30-50% chance) are expected this afternoon and evening roughly along and east of I-35. Some thunderstorms could become severe with primarily a large hail threat. - Scattered storms (40-60% chance) will be possible each afternoon and evening Saturday through Monday. A few storms may be severe (5-15% chance). - A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to near or slightly below normal for the middle of next work week, with afternoon highs dropping into the upper 70s/low 80s. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ /Through Saturday/ An active couple of days lie ahead with a dryline and quasi- stationary front resulting in a few rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms heading into the weekend. Stark thermodynamic contrast exists on either side of a nearly stationary surface front draped SW-NE through the forecast area early this morning, with dewpoints in the 50s on the northern side of the boundary and as high as the mid 70s within the warm sector airmass to the south. This front is associated with a Northern Plains and Great Lakes low pressure system, and therefore will have little/no encouragement to make significant headway out of the forecast area during the next ~36 hours. It should pivot slightly northwestward during the daytime today, before resulting in isolated convective initiation mainly along and east of I-35 by mid-afternoon. Since upper-level forcing is largely absent, thunderstorm development would be the result of convergence along the boundary amid extreme instability and steep mid-level lapse rates, and this would likely only offer isolated convective coverage. That being said, any thunderstorms would easily be able to become severe in the presence of 4000-5000 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell structures. Large hail will be the primary threat, with damaging winds being a secondary hazard. While tornado potential is never zero when surface-based supercells exist, this potential is on the low side today due to rather straight hodographs and weak low- level flow/shear which will greatly limit helicity in the lowest 1 km. The severe threat should be maximized roughly from the DFW Metroplex east and south between 3-8 PM before convective intensity wanes after nightfall. There is also a small- probability scenario where no convection is able to develop due to capping this afternoon, although the odds of a null event for our CWA today appear rather slim. Additional severe convection is expected on Saturday, although most/all of the CWA will be at risk as the boundary should lift northward into southern Oklahoma in the morning. It's slight northward retreat will be due to increased southerly low-level flow in the presence of a compact shortwave traversing southwesterly mid-level flow through New Mexico and the TX Panhandle. This will open the entire forecast area to 70+ dewpoints and extreme instability, and the additional ascent from the shortwave's arrival should ignite greater coverage of convection by late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The higher coverage and faster upscale growth will probably cause threats to transition primarily to damaging winds rather quickly, but lower hail/tornado threats will certainly accompany all surface-based storms through Saturday afternoon as convection transits the area to the east. Storms are likely to last into the evening before diminishing overnight. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday through Thursday/ ...Sunday through Monday Night... On Sunday, the dryline will retreat further west, extending from the Texas Hill Country through western Oklahoma. Aloft, a strong upper-level disturbance will pivot from the Great Basin into the Rockies. The primary disturbance, however, won't eject east of the Rockies until Monday. As such, forcing for ascent will be weak Sunday evening, resulting in very isolated storm coverage along the dryline. Storms should mostly remain west of the I-35/35W corridor and near the Red River should they develop. Any storm Sunday evening will have the potential to be severe, with deep layer shear supportive of organized updrafts and 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This will bring the potential for large hail and damaging winds with any mature thunderstorm. Though non-zero, the tornado threat will be low owing to weak low-level shear. Storms should quickly dissipate after sunset due to continued weak forcing and the redevelopment of a strong capping inversion. On Monday, the primary upper-level vort max is expected to eject out into the central Great Plains. This will induce surface cyclogenesis somewhere in eastern Colorado or western Kansas. As the low develops and tracks east, a cold front will approach the area from the north, with a dryline draped from central Oklahoma down the I-35 corridor into central Texas. East of the dryline, a very warm and moist airmass will still be in place, with SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg. PVA with the approach of the main disturbance aloft will bring sufficient forcing for ascent to develop scattered thunderstorms along the dryline by the late afternoon/early evening hours. Exact storm coverage remains uncertain at this time, but should be more widespread than any convection on Sunday. As storms mature and move off the dryline, abundant SBCAPE, strong deep layer shear, and 0-1km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will be favorable for all modes of severe weather, particularly for any discrete storms that can persist into the early overnight hours with the development of the low-level jet. Exact timing and coverage remain uncertain at this point, as this will be determined by the progression of the upper-level disturbance and the strength of the capping inversion during the daytime hours. ...Tuesday through Thursday... By Tuesday, a cold front will move through the region. Isolated thunderstorms along the front during the morning hours will become more widespread as the day progresses. At this time, it looks like the front should push east of our area before peak heating and the greatest potential for storms gets underway. Regardless, there will be enough deep layer shear and instability in place to support organized convection, so will have to continue monitoring for the potential of additional strong to severe thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours. Behind the front and through the middle of next week, temperatures will return to near or slightly below normal. Highs should be in the upper 70s and low 80s, with nighttime lows dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure will dominate behind the front, supportive of dry weather Tuesday evening through Thursday. Darrah && .AVIATION... /Issued 1233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ /06z TAFs/ Winds are light and variable at the TAF sites as of 06z, but should return to southeasterly in the next few hours as a stalled frontal boundary pivots back to the northwest. This will also open the door for a brief MVFR stratus intrusion this morning, and these cigs should spread into Waco around or after 09z and into the Metroplex TAF sites closer to 12z. Lifting and scattering to VFR will occur by late morning, while winds veer increasingly southwesterly or westerly heading into the afternoon. Attention will then turn to convective chances, with initiation of isolated storms within D10 possible after ~20z. This could result in a few hours of TSRA impacts to any of the TAF sites due to thunderstorm activity immediately at the airports, or at least within the vicinity. Confidence in coverage and placement of storms is still too low to warrant a Tempo TSRA in the TAFs at this time. Convective chances will end this evening with VFR and light southeasterly winds resuming. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 73 90 73 89 / 30 5 70 50 20 Waco 94 74 92 72 92 / 30 40 30 30 10 Paris 88 66 87 69 85 / 30 10 60 60 30 Denton 91 68 90 69 88 / 20 0 70 50 30 McKinney 90 70 89 71 87 / 30 5 70 60 20 Dallas 93 72 91 72 89 / 30 5 70 50 20 Terrell 91 71 89 72 89 / 40 20 60 50 20 Corsicana 92 74 92 74 92 / 30 40 40 40 10 Temple 95 73 94 72 94 / 10 30 20 20 10 Mineral Wells 93 68 92 70 91 / 20 0 60 40 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$