####018009052#### FXUS61 KCLE 160731 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 331 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will continue to lift north of the area this morning as a low pressure system over the north-central U.S. meanders east. This low will move a cold front east today, before stalling across central Ohio by mid-afternoon. This will lift north again as a warm front tonight before a cold front and the associated low push east on Saturday. High pressure will return on Sunday through early Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A deepening upper level trough with a nearly vertically stacked low pressure is expected to meander east throughout the near term period, allowing for multiple chances of precipitation. Currently, this low pressure is extending a warm front across portion of Lake Erie, with the far eastern edge sagging south across far NE OH. This boundary will continue to lift north this morning as a weak cold front/shortwave trough pushes east into late morning. Overall forcing with the boundaries themselves is weak, however the atmosphere is still primed for the potential of severe weather, with the caveat being any storm would have to break the strong CAP to develop. Mesoanalysis suggests 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area with DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg. In addition, an area of deep moisture convergence remains present over far NE OH and NW PA. With all that being said, there remains a non-zero chance of isolated severe weather across far NE OH and NW PA over the next couple hours. Primary concern will remain gusty winds, although small hail cannot be ruled out. By late morning, the aforementioned weak cold front will settle just south of the area, allowing for skies to become mostly sunny. Clear skies mixed with WAA will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s, possible feeling a tad warmer with dewpoints lingering in the upper 50s to low 60s. The stalled boundary will again lift north as another warm front this evening, followed by a stronger cold front late tonight into Saturday morning. These frontal passages will have better overall synoptic support with them as the center of the low moves across the northern Great Lakes. With clearing skies and a moist environment, decent destabilization is expected this afternoon with hi-res models suggesting 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 50-55 knots of bulk shear. Even with the atmosphere being primed with basic ingredients for convection, there remains a bit of uncertainty on how far north the airmass will destabilize to that extent and in regards to how much CIN will develop with the transition to a less diurnally favorable timing, similar to what happened this past night. Taking into account all the variables, SPC has highlighted much of the area in a Day 1 Slight Risk, with the exception of far NE OH and NW PA which remain in a Marginal Risk. Primary concern will be strong, damaging winds but isolated large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This severe potential will be highly dependent on how the atmosphere changes over the next several hours. In addition, heavy rainfall associated with strong thunderstorms will pose a local flood risk, especially in poor drainage or low lying areas and as a result WPC has issued a Day 1 ERO for the entire area. Please stay weather aware today and have ways to receive warnings at night as this may turn into an overnight event. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s. On Saturday, showers should gradually diminish from west to east as the cold front push east and a surface trough lingers over the area. Enough wrap around moisture associated with the low in southern Ontario/Quebec will allow for rain showers to persist across the eastern portion of the CWA through Saturday, before drying out Saturday night. Much cooler temperatures arrive on Saturday behind the departing front, with highs only climbing into the low to mid 60s. In addition, gusty winds of 20-25 mph have the potential for temperatures to feel a bit cooler than that. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper level low continues its exit to the east with a few lingering cold air advection showers over the far northeastern zones aided by weak surface and upper level troughs. POPs gone by 00Z Sunday, but the general troughing over the southern Great Lakes will persist through Sunday with some degree of cloud cover with low level moisture that is still refusing to relinquish its grip on the region. This period of northerly surface winds, 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures slow to recover, and varying cloud cover will support a cooler stretch of weather that will push into the long term period with temperatures that will be around 10 degrees below normal. Low end POPs return late Monday with the approach of a warm front from the southwest for the southwestern zones of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level ridging has built in across the eastern portion of CONUS bringing mild and dry weather to the start of the long term period. The next upper level trough will be developing across the Rockies late Monday into Tuesday and will bring unsettled weather during the middle of the week. The accompanying surface low will be entering the region by Wednesday moving eastward across the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. There may be sufficient CAPE and instability come Wednesday evening into Thursday morning where a few thunderstorms could be possible across the region. As the surface low slowly departs out to the east, precipitation will be slow to depart as well and should expect periodic showers with the wrap around moisture to occur through the end of the period. Temperatures for next week are trending to be slightly below average with highs in the mid to low 60s and lows in the upper 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Predominately VFR conditions should persist through much of this TAF period as the entire area lingers in the warm sector of a low pressure centered over the north central US. Initial thoughts earlier this evening were that a MCS was going to surge east across the area, however all of the convection has remained north of the area across Michigan. As a result, there was a large shift in the TAF forecast with limited gusts and thunderstorms now expected. Opted to maintain a TEMPO for heavy rainfall and a few rumbles of thunder over the next couple hours, however this may be a stretch given the strengthening CAP over the area. By Friday daybreak, any lingering showers and thunderstorms will push east of the area allowing for clearing skies and winds 10-12 knots from the southwest throughout today. Tonight, another round of convection is possible between the 00-06Z Saturday time frame, although confidence remains low given the poor handling of ongoing convection in recent model guidance. Opted to handle this potential with PROB30. There may be a brief period of non-VFR conditions, but will need to monitor model trends in the coming hours. Winds gusts will ramp up near the end of this TAF period as a cold front approaches from the west and strengthens the gradient across the area. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible through Saturday. && .MARINE... West to southwesterly flow at 10-15 knots is expected across the lake for the majority of the day Friday before the winds start to back overnight to be predominantly out of the south. Waves between 1- 3 feet are expected during through Saturday morning. During the day Saturday, the winds will veer becoming westerly and increasing to 15- 20 knots across the lake with as a low pressure system moves across the Northern Great Lakes into Eastern Canada. Waves will build to 4- 8 feet throughout the day into Sunday before subsiding in the late evening. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for most of the day Saturday through Sunday afternoon for primarily points east of the Islands. As the low pressure pushes off eastward, winds and waves will begin to subside and become west to northwesterly at 10-15 knots and waves 1-3 feet. Winds will becoming primarily northerly Monday morning as high pressure and ridging builds over the region and then veer to be northeasterly through Tuesday. Waves will be less than 3 feet during this time period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...04 NEAR TERM...04 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...23 AVIATION...04 MARINE...26 ####018008890#### FXUS62 KRAH 160732 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the work week. A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday... * There remains a Conditional Threat for Strong/Severe Storms across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain this afternoon/early evening Overview: Strong upper level ridge centered over the Eastern US will move offshore late in the day. A shortwave trough associated with the upper cyclone moving into the Great Lakes will approach from the west late tonight/early Saturday. Today: Model spread remains high, and forecast confidence regarding storm potential this afternoon and evening continues to be low. The upper ridge could prove quite formidable again today. The exception may be across northern portions of the forecast area where shortwave vort disturbances spilling atop the ridge could support a cluster or two of very strong and severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Strong diurnal heating(afternoon highs upper 80s to lower 90s) within the seasonably moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates(7.5-8 deg C/km)associated with the EML lingering over the mid south and SE US will create a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE expected to peak between 2000-3000 J/kg. Shear is also quite impressive with 0-3km shear forecast to strengthen to 35-40 kts during the afternoon and evening. If storms do make it into the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, the robust instability and strong shear could allow for intense persistent updrafts and supercells to track east across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain counties. Large +2" hail and potentially destructive straight-line winds up to 75 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible. Alternatively, the ridge could shield central NC from the strong deep convection, diverting the severe threat north of the area, leaving it hot with considerable mid and high clouds across the area. So as you can see we are dealing with a very conditional threat for severe storms today. Stay vigilant and monitor the latest weather conditions. Tonight: Any convection should dissipate or move east of the area before midnight. The approach of the upper trough from the west could support some weakening convection moving into the western Piedmont towards sunrise. Otherwise, mostly dry overnight with record warmth expected(see climate section below). Lows 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM Thursday... The mid/upper low and occluded surface low will track east across southern Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday and Saturday night, dragging a cold front to the south that will pass through central NC during the afternoon and evening. Model guidance indicates an MCS will approach from the TN Valley on Friday night, but weakening significantly as it crosses the Appalachians and approaches central NC on Saturday morning, with outflow surging out ahead of it. Models struggle with depicting the strength and timing of these MCS's, especially this far out, and that will be critical for the severe storm threat later in the day. A weaker MCS that passes through earlier on Saturday would favor more daytime heating and destabilization compared to vice versa. The NAM Nest is the only high-res guidance that goes out this far, and it does depict ample instability resulting in a broken line of showers and storms developing along the cold front from Saturday mid-afternoon into the evening. However, lower-res guidance is mostly dry, and moisture with the front does not look impressive, as the flow aloft is from a westerly direction. Furthermore, we will only get weak upper forcing with the low tracking so far to our north. GFS/ECM/CMC ensemble mean QPF continues to trend drier and is less than a tenth of an inch. So while convective coverage is still unclear, think it should be pretty isolated, and only have slight to low chance POPs. Still, there is a conditional threat of a few strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds developing along and ahead of the front, as surface-500 mb bulk shear will be as high as 40-50 kts. Also can't rule out some strong cold pool induced wind gusts with what is left of that MCS on Saturday morning. Saturday's temperatures may be kept down in the morning by outflow and clouds from the system, but we should still get good surface heating in the afternoon as clouds break and we get strong SW winds ahead of the front (gusting up to 20-30 mph even outside of any storms). So forecast highs are still mid-80s to lower-90s, not quite as warm as Friday, but heat indices in the mid-to-upper-90s will still be possible in the SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM Thursday... The mid-level flow will turn NW from Sunday into Tuesday, as we are caught between the low slowly drifting east over New England and the Canadian Maritimes and ridging that strengthens and builds east from the MS Valley to the Deep South and TN Valley. At the surface, a backdoor cold front looks to move through central NC on Sunday night. This front then looks to lift back slowly north on Monday and Tuesday, and latest guidance has trended toward the front lingering more on top of our region instead of to our SW. Precipitation chances could be enhanced by a series of MCS's that move overtop the ridge and through the southern Mid-Atlantic. So expect gradually increasing shower and storm chances each day, but there is still plenty of uncertainty. The next mid/upper low will move east from the Central Plains on Tuesday, but models disagree on the pattern evolution after. The GFS picks it up by a northern stream low over the Great Lakes and is more progressive, while the ECMWF keeps the systems separate and thus hangs them back longer. This will have a big impact on precipitation chances as well as temperatures, but it looks like an associated cold front will move through sometime Wednesday or Thursday. For now have POPs increasing to high chance to likely on Wednesday, decreasing somewhat on Thursday as the GFS and most of its ensembles are dry by then while the ECMWF and CMC are still wet. As cool high pressure extends south from the Hudson Bay into the Eastern US, expect at least slightly cooler temperatures from Sunday into Tuesday with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the upper-50s to mid-60s. Dew points will be more tolerable compared to now, generally mid-50s to lower-60s. A sharp drop to below-normal temperatures should occur late next week once the Wednesday/Thursday cold front moves through. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: An isolated shower/storm or two remains possible overnight. Otherwise, with the exception for some variable restrictions at fog prone KRWI, all remainder TAF sites should remain VFR through daybreak. Forecast confidence is lower than normal wrt to storm potential this afternoon and evening. Upper level disturbances spilling atop a strong upper level ridge in place across the region may support isolated to scattered storms across the northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Alternatively, the upper ridge could largely suppress/stifle compression, keeping the area free of convection. Should storms hold together, strong instability and shear would be conducive for strong wind gusts of 30-50kt+, hail and sub-VFR conditions for any northern TAF site(KINT, KGSO, KRDU, and KRWI)that takes a direct hit. Given the uncertainty, will omit any mention of storms and restrictions at this time. But a period of storms/restrictions may need to be added with later TAF issuances. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Danco LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...CBL ####018004313#### FXUS62 KKEY 160733 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A large, expansive surface high stretches across the central North Atlantic southwestward across Florida and the Gulf. This is maintaining east to southeast winds across the Florida Keys. At the same time, an upper level ridge is moving in from the west. The combination of which are providing substantial deep dry air and subsidence. As a result, there are hardly any clouds present and the KBYX radar is void of any meteorological echoes. Temperatures are stubbornly holding near 80 degrees this hour with dew points in the lower 70s. .FORECAST... The aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to slowly trek eastward across the Gulf. Meanwhile, the expansive surface high across the Atlantic will hold fast through the weekend and into early next week. The combination of these features will keep a tight lid on the atmosphere and maintain near nil rain chances. It will also mean that we will see a gradual warming trend with slightly above normal temperatures. For reference, Key West International Airport normals are 86 for a high and 76 for a low. Daytime highs over the next several days will be slowly creeping into the upper 80s, while overnight lows may struggle to fall below 80 degrees. Likewise, dew points will be edging upward with values approaching the mid 70s. Over the weekend and into early next week, a series of strong surface lows will trek across the northern tier of the U.S. and eastern Canada. This will eventually wear on the surface high and shift it further east. By Tuesday night it will shift just enough eastward, that winds will begin clocking around to the south and southwest. As this occurs, moisture will be steadily increasing in the boundary layer. That being said, A) it will take time to overcome the numerous days of deep dry air and B) initially the southerly winds will act against us during the daytime on Wednesday. Therefore, rain chances will remain near nil through Wednesday. Slight rain chances and even the threat for isolated thunderstorms return Wednesday night. By Thursday, we will have to begin keeping an eye on the southwesterlies as this will promote cloud lines with the added potential hazards of waterspouts. For now, keeping rain chances at slight, but there is room to go up as we get closer to the event. However, being nearly a week out, felt at least confident to at least nudge up PoPs. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A large, expansive high pressure parked in the central North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the next several days across the Keys coastal waters. This will result in minor peaks and lulls through the next several days along with near- nil shower chances. The high will begin gradually shifting eastward by Tuesday, allowing for an increase in moisture and a threat for showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period with minimal sky cover and near-nil rain chances influenced by quite dry air above the near-surface layer. Winds will persist from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record high temperature of 92F was recorded in Key West. The same day also saw the daily record warm low temperature of 83F recorded at both Key West and Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and for Marathon back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 87 80 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest ####018006886#### FXUS64 KCRP 160733 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over Rio Grande Plains The center of a mid-level high pressure system will be over the central Gulf today through Saturday, allowing for southwesterly flow to dominate aloft and unseasonably warm temperatures to continue. High temperatures inland will range from 90 to around 107 over the Rio Grande Plains today and Saturday with low temperatures tonight in the mid to upper 70s. The HREF Grand Ensemble only has a low to medium (20-40%) chance of heat index values 110 or greater this afternoon over portions of the western Brush Country (Cotulla) and southern Coastal Plains (Kingsville/Alice). Given the lower confidence and the past couple of days being observed lower than expected in terms of apparent temperatures, I have decided to hold back on issuing another Heat Advisory. Majority of South Texas will still experience a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts with heat indices generally 100-109, with the aforementioned areas briefly peaking to 110-112. Also to note, KNQI seems to have a bit of a warm bias when it comes to its dewpoints, which led to an outlier heat index value yesterday of 119 with a dewpoint of 80. KNQI was the only AWOS/ASOS to reach 110 or greater with the second highest in the area at 109 in Alice (KALI). Sites closer to the water such as KNGP, KCRP, KRAS, and Malaquite Beach RAWS site observed dewpoints of 75-77. Just a couple degrees warmer in dewpoint will lead to a drastic increase in the heat index. A weak mid-level shortwave stretching from New Mexico to eastern Mexico combined with moisture pooling to above normal values in front of a dryline provides an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to develop west of the Rio Grande Saturday afternoon. We'll have to closely monitor the progression of the shortwave and dryline but if any convection does linger into South Texas it would be Saturday night, when we lose surface instability. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Summer-like temperatures continue through Tuesday, with a Heat Risk approaching the Major/Extreme Categories across the Brush Country. - A frontal passage on Tuesday will reduce the heat risk. Upper ridge influence continues to bring summer-like temperatures across South Texas Tuesday. Combined with Gulf-rich moisture, heat indices have a high-likelihood of remaining above 105F across much of South Texas. Across the western Brush Country and along the Rio Grande, a dry line passage will lower minimum relative humidity ranges to 10-20% range, resulting in an elevated fire risk Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, an upper level trough over the Intermountain West will begin lifting as it moves into the Central Plains. At the surface, this translates to a frontal passage throughout Central and South Texas, switching winds from southerly to N/NE'ly. Ensemble models continue to place the southern extent of >20% PoPs from Central Texas, and to the north, Tuesday through Wednesday. The next best chance for rain is actually located more along a lee trough forming along the Sierra Madre Oriental. As of this forecast, this still keeps most of South Texas under 15% PoPs, so confidence for Wednesday-Friday rainfall is low. Post front Wednesday still brings highs at or above 100F across the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, highs will remains in the 90s except along the immediate coastline. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 IFR/MVFR ceilings have blanketed the Coastal Plains underneath cirrus clouds that make it difficult to see from satellite. ALI is lowest at 500 feet. MVFR vsby reductions have been noted over ALI/VCT and will likely continue through the early morning hours with wind speeds around 10 knots. IFR/MVFR will continue through most of this morning, clearing to VFR across all terminals by the afternoon. South to southeasterly winds will strengthen to around 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Out west over COT/LRD, winds will be weaker at around 10 knots and will only have a short period of time when MVFR ceilings may impact from 11-15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A moderate to fresh onshore breeze (BF 4-5) with 4-5 ft seas will persist through Monday morning, with bays and nearshore waters having strong (BF 6) wind gusts Monday afternoon along with seas increasing to 5-6 ft. Tuesday, winds will become more gentle and shift from the northeast Wednesday morning through Thursday with seas subsiding down to 3-4 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Today, borderline elevated fire weather conditions will develop primarily over Webb County. This time window is short with relative humidity briefly dropping to 25-30% in the late afternoon. Winds at 20ft will remain less than 15 mph and therefore don't have a fire danger statement in effect today. Next week, Energy Release Components (ERC) in the 60-90th percentile along the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush Country, surface and 20 ft winds around 15 mph, as well as minimum relative humidity values ranging from 15-30% (dropping to as low as 10-20% on Monday afternoon) will result in an elevated fire risk daily into the middle of the week. Chances for precipitation along a dryline Tuesday will be greater north of the Brush Country, thus providing a very low chance for a wetting rain. Weaker 20 ft winds across this area will limit the fire risk. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 78 91 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 94 76 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 106 77 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 106 77 105 78 / 0 10 10 10 Kingsville 97 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 86 78 86 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF/94 LONG TERM....AE/82 AVIATION...EMF/94 ####018010693#### FXUS61 KRNK 160733 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 333 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front enters the Ohio Valley today bringing storms to this region, which will start to move into our area this afternoon into tonight. A cold front tracks across Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front for Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) A few storms this afternoon, some severe. 2) Expect better coverage tonight especially west of I-77, where MCS moves in from KY. Severe winds/hail possible. Looking at minimal coverage on radar this morning but there is is a weak surface trough across eastern KY and another over western NC that is at least providing a few showers. Expect a cluster of storms to move across KY later this morning ahead of a warm front and seen on models with vort tracking through the same area. The weather over us this morning aside from some patchy dense fog in the Piedmont will be seeing increasing high clouds from earlier upstream convection. Question this afternoon is coverage from any residual surface outflow/boundaries. Some of the convective allowing/high res models show development in KY then bringing it as several clusters across the mountains and ramping it up on into the Piedmont by mid afternoon. With plenty of low level moisture and some heating should see SBCAPEs exceed 1000-1500 J/kg. The main culprit in coverage is lingering mid/high clouds. For now looks like the afternoon will see mainly widely scattered coverage, but appears higher coverage will be in WV. There is a mini-break late afternoon while upstream, a bigger severe weather outbreak will likely be ongoing over the Lower Ohio Valley into the TN Valley. Models having this cluster of storms with supercells likely approaching our WV/far SW Va area by late evening. This timing should limit the severe impacts but if there is sufficient clearing/heating before sunset in this area, then instability will likely help keep intensity of storms elevated. Some models do not have this complex arriving til midnight in the west, but typically, models tend to be slower than actual events, so expect an active late evening into early overnight, though the models do show this activity weakening as it crosses the Alleghany Front. Damaging winds will be the main threat, and gusts over 65 mph not out of the question in areas over far SW VA/southern WV from Greenbrier to Tazewell/Smyth. Hail over the size of quarters possible if we get supercells, along with an isolated tornado. Showers/storms should be fading late Fri night, but could see lingering showers/few storms as cold front approaches. Highs today will be in the 80s east of the Blue Ridge and in the mid 70s to around 80 west. Lows Friday night remain elevated due to showers/higher RH, with lower to mid 60s Piedmont/foothills to upper 50s mountains. Forecast confidence is low on storm coverage today but moderate to high on severe potential with any storms especially later this evening in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 AM EDT Friday... Key Points: 1. Above normal temperatures through the period. 2. Primarily morning showers on Saturday. 3. Gusty Saturday afternoon. 4. Dry Sunday. 5. Showers return to western sections late Monday afternoon and evening. A look at the 15 May 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights shows an upper low within a trough axis over the Ontario/Quebec border by Saturday evening with the trough axis extending south into the mid-Atlantic region. Additionally, a broad upper ridge is over central CONUS, and a trough is deepening along the west coast. On Sunday, the trough over the northeast US shifts east, becoming centered over Maine by Sunday evening. The central CONUS ridge shifts east into the Mississippi River Valley, and the west coast trough deepens to a closed low centered over ID/NV/UT. On Monday into Monday night, little change is expected to the synoptic pattern from Sunday, other than a minor shift east of each feature. At the surface, an occluded surface low pressure system will be across central Quebec by Saturday evening. Its association triple point will be closer to New England, with its cold front trailing south to the Delmarva Peninsula and over eastern parts of NC. High pressure will be over central CONUS, and low pressure will be over UT. By Sunday evening, low pressure and the surface cold front will be farther to our east, with high pressure centered over the Lower Ohio Valley. Low pressure will deepen over the Rockies. By Monday evening, high pressure will be centered over our area, while low pressure moves into the Central Plains states. Monday evening, the ridge axis shifts east, beginning to open the door for moisture return. A look at the 15 May 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data shows 850mb temperatures on Saturday will range from +12C to +16C, nw-se, across the region. The high end of the range will touch the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year CFSR climatology. Values cool slightly for Sunday, with a range of +12C to +15C oriented n-s. Little change in values is expected for Monday. The above weather patterns offer the following forecast. With the passage of a cold front early on Saturday, showers will be confined to primarily the mountains during the morning hours. Winds will increase from the west behind the front, helping to squelch development east of the crest of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon hours. Wind gusts could be as high as 35 to 40 mph across the higher peaks and ridges during the afternoon hours. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be more common across the Piedmont and mountain valley regions. Heading through Sunday into Monday, as high pressure builds into the region, look for temperatures above normal for this time of year. While Sunday is expected to be dry, by late Monday and into Monday night, some showers may be able to work their way into western parts of the region as a southerly moisture fetch returns to the area. Confidence in the above weather scenario is high. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Friday... Key Points: 1. Near normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, but cooler for Thursday. 2. Daily chances of convective showers/storms, especially on Wednesday.\ A look at the 15 May 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights shows an upper ridge shifting east and becoming situated over our region. To its west, a upper trough is expected to be over central CONUS. On Wednesday, the center of the ridge shift to our east, and the trough axis shifts into the the Lower Ohio Valley. By Thursday, the trough continues its progress eastward, becoming centered over OH/KY/TN by Thursday evening. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will be east of our region on Tuesday evening. Low pressure will be over the mid-Mississippi River Valley. By Wednesday evening, the ridge will continue to shift east, and low pressure will be centered over the Lower Ohio Valley. By Thursday evening, low pressure will be centered over the mid- Atlantic region. A look at the 15 May 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data shows 850mb temperatures on Tuesday within a range of +11C to +15C, ne-sw across the region. For Wednesday, values cool slightly to within the +10C to +13C range, n-s. For Thursday, values drop considerably, reaching a range of +7C to +9C, nw-se, across the region. Values across the far southwest portion of the forecast area touch the 2.5 to 10 percentile of the 30-year CFSR climatology. The above weather patterns offer the following forecast. Precipitation chances will progressively increase through the period with the approach and then arrival of an area of low pressure and its associated warm/cold front. Timing of specific rounds of precipitation will be tricky, as the activity will be convective rather than an expansive stratiform in coverage. Temperatures will decrease heading into Thursday behind the system's cold front, but the track of the parent upper low may still bring showers to the region on Thursday, dependent on its track. Confidence in the above weather scenario is on the low side of moderate. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Look for fog potential at LYH/DAN/BCB and LWB though confidence is lower at LWB/BCB due to increasing clouds. Appears VFR through the period for cigs, but storms are possible again today with better coverage across the mountains of WV an west. However, given the lack of consistency will have no more than VC in the tafs for now. Expect wind gusts from the southwest to west at 15-20kts mainly in the mountains. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Storm coverage may be greater later Friday night into Saturday. So expect some periods of sub-VFR during this time. Expect clearing for Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic Sunday and into early next week, keeping the weather quiet with likely VFR conditions for all terminals. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025. While we have taken back over most of the forecast operations, our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC, there may still be issues with delayed or missing products until all services are restored. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period. The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS/WP AVIATION...WP EQUIPMENT...WP