####018005551####
FXUS64 KBMX 160741

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

241 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025



...New LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025



 - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather late

   Friday night into Saturday morning across the northern portions

   of Central Alabama and then a marginal risk late Saturday 

   afternoon into Saturday evening across much of Central Alabama.

   Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today through Saturday)

Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025



High pressure over the eastern Gulf will lead to southwest low and

mid level flow prevailing and bringing plenty of moisture to the

state. Today, the area should remain mostly rain free with plenty

of low level moisture keeping mostly cloudy skies through the 

morning and early afternoon. High temperatures will be at or a 

degree above the temperatures Thursday, in the upper 80s and lower

90s. 



Tonight, a frontal boundary will approach the area, moving from

north to south through the state through the morning. CAMs are

showing the convection beginning in the northwestern counties

around midnight, if not slightly after, and then reaching the

middle of the state by sunrise and 7 am. There is some

uncertainty as to how much coverage this front will produce, and

how quickly the convection will make it's way into the state.

Though with the parameters expected, severe thunderstorms are

possible in any cell. 



Instabilities are between 1500-2000 J/kg, with DCAPE values

anywhere between 500 and 700 J/kg. LI values will be roughly -4,

with PW values in the 90th percentile to max for this time of

year. The soundings show decent dry air in the low and mid levels,

and with the moisture and anticipated evaporation/cooling aloft, 

will forecast a decent chance for damaging winds in any strong thunderstorms.

Large hail will also be a possibility, especially in the cells 

along the front that have more lift. 



As the front moves south, models show a general decrease in

coverage, though models haven't been stellar in any accurate

depiction of coverage lately. Would expect activity to continue

through mid morning, with a slow decrease in the damaging

wind/hail potential as the lift weakens. There should be a break 

through the late morning and early afternoon before isolated to 

scattered diurnal convection develops along the boundary left by 

that front. Uncertainty remains in how much activity actually 

remains through the morning, and how much clearing can be expected

that would allow for plenty of heating and instability for the 

afternoon activity. 



For these storms, instabilities will be higher, around 3000-3500

J/kg, especially in the west and southwestern areas of the state.

These storms could also produce damaging winds/large hail, though

the PW values should be slightly less. The afternoon activity will

be more conditional, and for now will maintain the level 1 of 5

risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire area. 



24



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through next Thursday)

Issued at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025



A series of shortwaves will move across the region Sunday into 

Monday, with additional chances for rain or thunderstorms across 

Central Alabama. The best rain chances will be confined to the 

northern half of the area, with the highest rain and storm chances 

coming Sunday afternoon. A trough over the Plains will move eastward 

into Tuesday, with a surface low moving up the Ohio Valley dragging 

a cold front through Central Alabama Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

Rain and thunderstorm chances will return during this period as a 

result. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the upper 80s 

to low 90s across most places, which will be some of the warmest 

days so far this year. Wednesday and Thursday are currently 

projected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front.



12



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025



Low level flow will be from the southwest with plenty of moisture

advection over the area. MVFR ceilings are expected in the early

morning, with IFR ceilings by sunrise. Low level moisture should

remain high with at least MVFR ceilings through the afternoon. VFR

ceilings should prevail from late afternoon/evening through the

end of the TAF period, before a front and activity moves into the

area. 



24



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



The dry trend continues today. Minimum RH values will be the 40s 

south to 50s north, with 20ft winds up to 9 to 12 mph. Rain enters 

the area Friday night across the north with rain chances continuing 

off and on through the weekend. Min RH values should remain above 45 

percent in most areas Saturday and Sunday.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     89  67  88  67 /   0  50  30  20 

Anniston    89  69  87  69 /   0  30  30  20 

Birmingham  89  70  87  71 /   0  40  30  20 

Tuscaloosa  89  71  89  72 /   0  40  40  20 

Calera      89  71  87  71 /   0  30  40  20 

Auburn      89  69  87  71 /   0   0  20  20 

Montgomery  92  71  91  71 /   0  10  30  30 

Troy        92  70  91  71 /   0   0  20  30 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...24

LONG TERM....12

AVIATION...24