####018004470#### FXUS63 KICT 160745 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and dry conditions for today and Saturday. - Confidence for severe storms continues to increase for Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently have an upper low spinning over southeast ND/western MN with water vapor imagery showing some upper energy lifting across Eastern CO/Northwest KS. At the surface, cold front extends from the Great Lakes Region through the Arklatex area. Upper low will continue to migrate into the Great Lakes region today with strong west/northwest mid/upper flow over the Northern/Central Plains. Looking for conditions today fairly close to what we had on Thursday, with gusty west/northwest winds and temps a few degrees above normal, as highs top out in the 80s. On Saturday, an upper impulse is expected to lift out of the Desert Southwest and across the Southern Plains. This will allow very rich Gulf moisture to lift north across East TX into much of OK. Confidence is high that the better storm chances will remain south of the forecast area on Sat. For Sat night, some shortwave energy will track from Central CA toward the Four Corners region by Sun morning, with a more robust impulse expected to sink south across the Pacific NW and into the Great Basin by Sun afternoon. Low level moisture will quickly lift north Sat night into Sun morning as a warm front also lifts north. We should see some elevated storms develop Sat night as 850-700mb moisture transport quickly ramps-up. Any storm that develops will have plenty of instability to work with, so large hail will be likely with the stronger storms. Upper impulse is expected to be lifting out across western KS/western Nebraska by late Sun afternoon. Still considerable uncertainty on where surface features will be situated by late Sun afternoon. The NAM is further south with the warm front and has it just north of Hwy 400 by 21z Sun, while the ECMWF and GFS have the warm front situated along or north of I-70. In addition, the NAM and ECMWF are further west with the dryline compared to the GFS. Do have a slight lean to the more westerly dryline placement. Another challenging aspect to this system will be how much if any convection we see near or south of the warm front Sun as it lifts north, as all models indicate strong 850-700mb theta-e advection remaining in place. Moisture and instability will definitely not be an issue for any storms on Sun and while effective shear is not extremely impressive, there will be plenty given the extreme instability. Any storm that can develop near the triple point may have an enhanced tornado potential given more backed low level flow. For Mon, the initial upper impulse is expected to close-off over northwest Nebraska while a southern stream piece of energy tracks across NM. There is decent agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a cold front/dryline stretching generally along or just east of I-135 and will likely be the focus for afternoon/evening storm development. Upper jet will be in place across more of the forecast area than Sunday, and will setup better deep layer shear for storms to work with. And just like Sunday, extreme instability will once again be in place. So all severe hazards can be expected with the stronger storms Mon afternoon and evening. While some storms may linger across southeast KS Tue morning, by the afternoon hours, the better storm chances will be well east of the forecast area, with strong northwest flow aloft in place by Wed morning across the Plains. The will bring back a drier and cooler airmass. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Light southerly winds tonight will become northwest on Friday as a trough of low pressure moves over the area. Some wind gusts in the 25 knot range will be common in central and south central KS while VFR prevails over the region. Low level wind shear will impact south central KS tonight with the developing low level jet and this will subside early Friday morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...MWM ####018010682#### FXUS62 KJAX 160745 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 345 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...NEAR RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK... ...AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Overnight surface analysis depicts Atlantic ridging extending its axis westward across the FL peninsula through the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Arklatex region. Aloft...ridging over the Gulf continues to expand northeastward towards our region. Otherwise, deep troughing over the Dakotas and Upper Midwest was progressing slowly eastward. Latest GOES East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs remain mostly in the 1 - 1.25 inch range, with slightly higher amounts around 1.4 inches located near the Altamaha River in southeast GA. Mostly thin cirrus cloudiness continues to spill over the top of the Gulf ridge that was building towards our area, with latest nighttime infrared satellite imagery showing low stratus cloud cover developing along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley. West-southwesterly winds remain sustained at 5-10 mph at most locations as of 07Z, which was keeping temperatures mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Low stratus clouds and some potential for patchy to areas of fog will expand across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA through the predawn and early morning hours, with this low cloud cover likely reaching the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards sunrise. Lower clouds should remain west of the I-95 corridor this morning, with mixing after sunrise likely allowing these lower ceilings to lift by mid-morning at inland locations. Periods of mostly thin cirrus will continue to spill overtop of the ridge and across our area through tonight. Otherwise, west- southwesterly low level flow will delay the development of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to the early to mid afternoon hours at coastal locations. A dry and increasingly subsident atmosphere will allow for dewpoints to potentially fall to around 60 at inland locations this afternoon as filtered sunshine allows temperatures to soar to the mid and upper 90s at inland locations. These values will challenge daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites (see "Climate" section below for details). This dry air mass will keep maximum heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100, with coastal locations more likely to experience "feels-like" temperatures near the century mark as the afternoon sea breeze moves slowly inland, bumping coastal dewpoints back to the upper 60s to around 70 by the mid to late afternoon. This sea breeze will struggle to reach the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon, and its delayed development will yield highs in the lower 90s all the way to area beaches during the early to mid afternoon hours before an onshore breeze drops temperatures back to the upper 80s before sunset. Another round of low stratus and potentially some fog development is expected across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA after midnight, with some potential for eastward expansion of these low stratus ceilings and fog towards sunrise. Light westerly low level winds will otherwise prevail overnight, with lows only falling to the upper 60s inland and around 70 at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure will be centered to the southeast Saturday, with ridging extending west across southern FL. A cold front will drop into central GA Saturday afternoon. This pattern will then linger through Sunday night. The real question this period will be whether the front sinks far enough to be a focus for convection into SE GA. A few weak upper waves pass along the frontal zone during the period, which could cause the boundary to waiver a bit from north to south, otherwise there is not much support to push boundary into forecast area. So, at this point precipitation chances will be kept on the low side this period over SE GA, and NE FL will be kept dry. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages throughout this period. With dewpoints largely in the 60s throughout this time frame, heat will not make it to advisory levels. With the prevailing flow from the west southwest between the ridge and the front, the heat will make it all the way to the beaches, with little, if any afternoon push inland of the east coast sea breeze. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The high pressure ridge will lift to the north into central FL Monday into Tuesday, with frontal boundary also moving further to the north. A ridge will be in place at 500mb. Subsidence under these two ridges and moisture still on the low side will provide dry weather for the start of the week. The ridge will move away to the southeast Tuesday night, as an upper trough digs into the southeastern US, and a cold front moves into southeastern US. Long term models have timing differences in the cold frontal passage, but in general looking at the Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon time frame. Too early to determine potential strength of storms on the frontal passage, but indications are that there will be a fairly significant thermal boundary with it, suggesting it could be a strong passage. Temperatures will continue above average throughout this period. Thursday would start a trend toward lower readings. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 08Z. Low stratus ceilings and fog are expected to advect across the Suwannee Valley towards the GNV and VQQ terminals after 08Z, with enough confidence in this scenario to indicate prevailing MVFR visibilities at VQQ towards 09Z and at GNV towards 11Z. We left TEMPO groups for LIFR conditions at VQQ through around 12Z and for IFR conditions at GNV through around 13Z. Fog and low stratus could approach JAX after sunrise, but confidence was too low to indicate sub-VFR conditions at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 14Z. West-southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained around 5 knots at the inland terminals overnight and 5-10 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop near the coastal terminals towards 18Z, with surface winds shifting to southeasterly at SGJ and south-southeasterly at SSI, where sustained speeds will increase to around 10 knots. The sea breeze may push inland to CRG towards 22Z, where winds will become south-southeasterly briefly before sunset. West-southwesterly surface winds will otherwise increase to around 10 knots by 19Z at the rest of the inland terminals, followed by speeds diminishing to around 5 knots by 06Z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis across the Florida peninsula through the weekend and early next week, keeping a prevailing offshore wind flow in place across our local waters. The afternoon sea breeze will shift winds to south and southeasterly for the near shore waters through around sunset, with winds shifting to southerly during the evening hours. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days. A weakening frontal boundary will enter the southeastern states late this weekend, but this front will stall to the north of the Georgia waters. An isolated late afternoon or evening thunderstorm is possible over the Georgia waters on Sunday. The next significant frontal boundary will move across our local waters by late Wednesday or Thursday, possibly accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights should keep the risk low through at least midweek next week. Afternoon sea breezes will increase surf heights somewhat, but a weak easterly ocean swell will not raise the risk appreciably. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A dry and increasingly hot air mass will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at most locations today and again on Saturday. Breezy westerly transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Westerly transport winds will strengthen even further on Saturday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values on Saturday and Sunday. The Atlantic sea breeze should remain pinned to the east of I-95 through the mid to late afternoon hours today and again on Saturday, with this boundary expected to push further inland on Sunday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures through Tuesday at our designated climate sites: Fri 5/16 Sat 5/17 Sun 5/18 Mon 5/19 Tues 5/20 -------------------------------------------------- Jacksonville 96/1995 96/1995 96/1899 97/1960 99/1962 Gainesville 98/1896 96/1915 97/1930 99/1899 97/1938 Alma, GA 95/1990 94/2001 95/2001 97/1960 99/1962 Craig Airport 94/1994 93/2001 93/2001 92/2006 97/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 92 71 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 97 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 93 70 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 94 67 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 92 68 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018004204#### FXUS64 KSJT 160746 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 246 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the afternoons/evenings. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A dryline is forecast to advance east into central portions of West Central Texas this afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will be located south of the Big Country. Another hot day is forecast across the area, with temperatures above normal. Highs today will be in the mid 90s to near 100 across most of the area. Across the Big Country, highs will be in the low to mid 90s, where slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind the weak cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop south of the cold front and east of the dryline late this afternoon and evening. Most of this activity is forecast to remain east of our area, but a few storms are possible across our far eastern counties. Any storms that develop may become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Upper level trough axis will settle into the Southern Rockies through early in the week, allowing the dryline to slosh back and forth into West Central Texas each afternoon. Models do show a shortwave in advance of the trough, moving across the Southern Plains on Saturday and likely setting the stage for fairly widespread strong to severe convection across Texas during the afternoon and evening hours. How much of this develops across our are and how much farther east into central and north central Texas is a question, so will lean towards the latest CAMs for a first guess. CAMs show 70+ dewpoints spreading into the area during the morning hours, with the dryline mixing east by noon to near an Abilene to San Angelo line. If this holds, then best chances for storms will be across the Heartland, eastern Big Country, and the Northwest Hill Country and will reflect this idea in the forecast. Will want to keep a close eye of the dryline however. Not uncommon for the dryline to have trouble mixing east with that much moisture in place with storms then developing closer to Abilene and San Angelo. Dryline moves back west Saturday night, with some chance of convection developing overnight along the retreating dryline as well. Otherwise, repeat performance for Sunday afternoon. SPC has already added the northern Big Country into a Slight Risk and would not be surprised if it ends up farther south once the high resolution models can extend out that far and confirm the low level moisture and dryline position. Some chance of storms again Monday afternoon, although dryline looks like it will mix a little farther east and keep the best chances for convection across the far eastern counties. Dry conditions return for Tuesday as a weak cold front moves through the area and shifts the low level moisture well east of the area. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal through Monday, before the front cools readings off closer to normal values for TUesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 67 94 70 / 0 0 30 20 San Angelo 97 67 97 69 / 0 0 20 20 Junction 100 70 100 68 / 10 0 40 20 Brownwood 95 68 94 68 / 10 0 50 20 Sweetwater 94 67 95 69 / 0 0 10 10 Ozona 96 69 95 71 / 0 0 20 20 Brady 98 71 97 69 / 10 0 40 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...Daniels ####018003870#### FXUS64 KLCH 160746 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 246 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to Major heat risk is noted through the weekend as a prolonged period of above normal hot and humid weather will persist. - An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain out of the forecast into early next week. - Trends show a cold front moving through next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning that will bring a chance for rain along with cooler nights and less humid days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Upper level ridging will continue to provide a cap over the forecast area through the weekend that will keep any significant chance for rain out of the forecast. Southerly breezes today with a bit of pressure gradient with the low over the plains, however winds are expected to stay below advisory criteria, with wind speeds lowering over the weekend. With the southerly winds bringing in humid conditions, and lack of convection allowing for above normal highs, afternoon heat index readings will be over 100 degrees for portions of the forecast area north of the I-10 corridor. Looking at the NWS Heat Risk from WPC, the area will see a Moderate to Major Heat Risk or level 2 and 3 out of 4 through the weekend, with the higher heat risk values mainly north of the I-10 corridor. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The upper level ridge will hold through Monday, then begin to weaken on Tuesday as a rather strong upper level disturbance over the Rockies moves eastward. Guidance is now pretty consistent in this system bringing a cold front through the forecast area during the late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning period. Looks like there will be enough lift and dynamics to work with the Gulf moisture in place to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms during that time period. Behind the front, drier continental air will move into the forecast area that will allow for cooler and more comfortable nights with less humid days to end the period. Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 CIGs overnight will trend within the MVFR range across most terminals through the overnight hours into dawn. Potential for few sites to touch IFR exists as BKN decks under 1000ft are possible. Enhanced southerly flow will keep BR to a minimum with some light haze possible near daybreak as low level humidity will be quite high. Breezes out of the south forecast to pickup with 15-25kt gusts through late morning and early afternoon. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Pressure gradient and nocturnal jet working to create elevated and breezy southerly winds into the early morning hours before decreasing. At the moment small craft exercise caution should handle the situation through mid morning. Surface high pressure will continue to ridge across the northern Gulf through the weekend into early next week. This will allow a light to occasionally moderate southerly flow to persist. An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for showers out of the forecast through the weekend. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 74 93 72 / 0 0 10 10 LCH 87 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 88 75 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 89 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30 ####018009734#### FXUS63 KLOT 160747 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 247 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A threat of rapid fire spread exists this afternoon due to a combination of strong winds and low relative humidity. - A threat of severe thunderstorms exists late this afternoon and early evening (Threat level 1 to 2 out of 5). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Through Saturday: Two primary forecast concerns through early this evening, severe weather potential and windy, dry conditions for possible wildfires. Please see the fire weather section below. Much drier air has spread across western and northern IL with dewpoints in the upper 40s. The models are in good agreement with low level moisture surging back north late this afternoon into early this evening, with dewpoints back into the upper 50s to possibly lower 60s along and east of I-55. A cold front will be approaching from the west and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop east of I-55. Coverage further north into the Chicago Metro area is more uncertain with perhaps only isolated thunderstorms. Strong winds aloft along with ample instability will allow any storms that develop to quickly become severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Given the wind profiles in the soundings, isolated damaging gusts into the 60-65kt range will be possible. Before the storms, southwesterly winds will steadily increase this morning with gusts into the 40-45 mph range expected. There is a narrow window this afternoon, where gusts could frequently be at or above 45 mph, which is wind advisory criteria. Confidence is too low to issue a windy advisory at this time, but trends will need to be monitored. Gusts will diminish a bit this evening, into the 25-30 mph range but will remain gusty through sunset Saturday evening. Another period of higher gusts in the 35-40 mph is possible as the colder air spreads into the area late this evening. Previous forecast included patchy blowing dust for today for the western cwa and made no changes. There were stripes of heavier rainfall from the storms Thursday afternoon that will limit this potential for those areas. High temperatures today are expected to reach into the middle, to perhaps upper 80s for most locations. Wind directions may remain southerly enough to keep temps cooler along the north lakeshore. Low temps will drop into the lower/mid 50s Saturday morning. High temps will be cooler on Saturday ranging from mid 60s north to around 70 south. cms Saturday Night through Thursday: A sprawling ~1030 mb high will build east across Ontario and the Hudson Bay on Sunday with mid-level shortwave ridging forecast to build in across the local forecast area. This high to our north with send a robust afternoon and evening lake breeze/backdoor front through the entire region. This will end up holding lakeside highs in the mid/upper 50s, while inland locales will likely warm into the 70s prior to the lake breeze push. While some guidance hints at the potential for some intermittent lower cloud cover on Sunday, most indications are that any morning cloud cover should scatter into the afternoon. On Sunday night into Monday, a sharpening warm frontal zone well to our south will slowly advance northward into southern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and southern Illinois. Increasing low-level warm advection in response to strengthening 925-850 mb southwesterlies overtopping this frontal zone will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms, but given the current location of the aforementioned boundary and MUCAPE gradient, most/all of this activity through Sunday night looks to remain well to our south. Even into the day on Monday any activity locally currently looks like it should remain isolated to scattered, with deeper moisture still relegated to our south. Forecast soundings off the GFS in particular look like they'd be more supportive of intermittent drizzle/showers as opposed to thunderstorms. On Monday night into Tuesday, guidance pushes a modest surface low (near 1000 mb) towards northern Missouri/southern Iowa as a robust shortwave pivots across the central plains. During this time, the northward progress of the returning warm front is forecast to slow, with the boundary overall becoming quasistationary across central to downstate Illinois. Isentropic upglide will increase once again, likely leading to a nocturnal expansion of showers and storms which-- depending on the precise location of the stalled front--may begin to push into our forecast area, particularly south of about I-80. Thereafter, guidance generally depicts a complex upper pattern developing, with a series of upper lows/gyres pinwheeling around one another into the middle of the week. This general evolution will keep the threat for intermittent periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms going in the vicinity, at least into Wednesday. There's a signal for things to dry out into the end of the week. Carlaw && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The key aviation weather messages are: - Increasingly gusty south-southwesterly winds Friday morning and afternoon. Some potential for non-thunderstorm winds to gust 40+ knots for a brief period during the mid to late afternoon. - Chance for thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening. Any storms that develop could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 knots. - Winds shifting to the WSW Friday evening and will remain gusty, with some potential for 30+ knot gusts through the overnight. VFR conditions with southwesterly winds will prevail tonight. Winds will increase steadily through Friday morning and into the afternoon and will become south-southwesterly. During peak heating, there is some potential for intermittent gusts of 40+ knots at times (roughly during the 20-23z timeframe), although confidence in persistent gusts this high was not high enough to introduce higher gusts at this time. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop late in the afternoon, although confidence in them directly impacting the terminals still remains a bit unclear, with the greatest coverage currently depicted just south. Made no significant alterations to the inherited PROB30 groups, but consideration for upgrades to TEMPOs will be needed in future TAF updates if model trends continue. Any storms that develop will have very high cloud bases (near 10 kft) and will be capable of producing severe wind gusts/microbursts. Winds will shift out of the WSW Friday evening. Another "pop" of strong winds is possible late in the evening and overnight, and there is a signal that gusts could be a bit higher than the current TAFs indicate. MVFR cigs may eventually develop, but these look to hold off until the very end of the extended ORD/MDW TAF window or just beyond. Carlaw && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Southerly winds are expected to gust to gales to 35 kt this afternoon for mainly the IL nearshore waters and through Gary in the IN nearshore. Winds will shift westerly this evening as a cold front moves across southern Lake Michigan. Winds may continue to gust to near gale force with and just behind this cold front. Gusts will then diminish slightly, into the 25-30kt range which will continue through early Saturday evening. cms && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A fire weather watch remains in effect for all of northeast IL this afternoon. Much drier air has spread across western and northern IL and is expected to remain in place through mid afternoon. Dewpoints may lower a few more degrees, into the mid 40s and combined with high temperatures in the middle, to perhaps upper 80s, minimum relative humidity levels in the 20 to 25 percent range are possible this afternoon. Southwesterly winds will steadily increase this morning into this afternoon with gusts into the 40-45 mph range expected this afternoon. This combination of low relative humidity and strong winds will create the potential for rapid wildfire spread. A limiting factor is that some areas received heavier rainfall from the storms Thursday afternoon. Low level moisture is expected to surge back north late this afternoon into early this evening, with dewpoints in the upper 50s, perhaps lower 60s, east of I-55. There will also be a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening for areas along and east of I-55. The combination of rising relative humidity levels as well as possible rainfall will end the wildfire risk by early this evening. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this evening for ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039. IN...None. LM...Gale Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018005364#### FXUS64 KLUB 160748 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 248 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be above normal through Monday. - There is a very slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern Rolling Plains Saturday and Sunday, but most areas will remain dry. - Gusty winds expected Sunday and Monday which may lead to some patchy blowing dust on the Caprock. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 2 am surface analysis shows a low over SW KS, with a pre-frontal trough extending south through Amarillo and Lubbock, and another weak wind shift/front entering the OK Panhandle. Upper-level low moving through the Upper Great Lakes will drag the surface low E-NEWD this morning and the front should drop through the forecast area by 9 or 10 am. The fleeting northerly wind shift will not influence our temperatures much today as we will mix deeply through the dry boundary layer and a thermal ridge starts to jut northward underneath swift, confluent, W-SW flow aloft. Highs should warm about 5-10 degrees over yesterday for most areas. It will be mild and dry tonight with moisture return limited to the far eastern Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Saturday will generally be very warm and dry, but there are a few details to consider. There will be a weakening shortwave passing southwest to northeast across the region. Guidance suggests that there will be ample sub-tropical moisture caught up with this wave, so despite the dry low-levels, we will likely see considerable mid to high-level cloud cover during the day. Additionally, with the weak lift accompanying the wave, we would not be surprised to see some virga or perhaps even some sprinkles with cloud bases about 10k ft. The latest forecast soundings suggest CAPE will be too small/shallow to support thunder, but it's something we will continue to look at. The dryline is generally expected to remain just east of the forecast area, however, in the various CAM guidance, there are still a few models that have the dryline slightly farther west and develop an isolated storm or two along it during the late afternoon or early evening. If a storm does develop, it will be high-based, but may still bring a threat of severe hail and downdraft wind gusts. The dryline is expected to surge northwest Saturday night as the low-level jet responds to a deeper trough moving into the 4-corners region. The moisture will be rather shallow though, and should mix eastward quickly in the face of increasing southwesterly winds. By peak heating, the dryline should be near our eastern border, perhaps holding up in the southern Rolling Plains in the evening hours where it is farther removed from the main push. And like Saturday, there is a small chance that if the dryline is present, an isolated storm may develop and bring a threat of severe weather in that area. The remainder of the area though will be dealing with gusty, perhaps borderline Wind Advisory level winds through the afternoon, and perhaps some light blowing dust as the mid-level speedmax passes over the area in conjunction with the trough rotating northeast from the 4-corners into the central plains. NBM deterministic winds are typically too light in this pattern, and were adjusted upwards. No moisture return is expected Sunday night, with swift southwest flow persisting. Another lobe of vorticity drops rotates south through the main trough and across the area on Monday but with no moisture to work with it will only bring us more wind. As the upper trough moves east it will send a stronger front through the area Monday night or Tuesday morning. This will finally bring some genuinely cooler air, with area highs Tuesday only in the 70s to lower 80s, and only modest warming expected for Wednesday. This will also send dry air down into the northern gulf and PoPs will be nil. Return flow will develop across Texas Thursday and Friday underneath broad ridge - although some ensemble solutions suggest a weak shortwave may undercut the ridge. This will also result in a pronounced warming trend with highs back in the 90s by Friday. We should remain dry beneath the ridge Thu and Fri, but there are some indications that rain chances may return later next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Lubbock TX 90 61 92 61 / 0 0 10 0 Childress TX 90 59 91 63 / 0 0 10 10 Brownfield TX 88 59 90 58 / 0 0 10 0 Levelland TX 87 58 89 57 / 0 0 10 0 Plainview TX 85 55 88 55 / 0 0 10 0 Friona TX 82 52 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tahoka TX 89 61 91 61 / 0 0 10 0 Aspermont TX 92 61 94 68 / 0 0 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...07 ####018005919#### FXUS62 KCAE 160748 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 348 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation chances are low to close out the work week, with well above normal temperatures expected this afternoon. The weekend looks hot and humid with a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. The next significant chance of rain comes during the middle of next week with hot temperatures persisting. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Warm and benign weather conditions expected through the period Upper level ridging is dominating our weather conditions, with a very warm night continuing across the area. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s for most right now, expected to only fall a bit more as we approach daybreak. Widespread mid and high level clouds have been the impetus for temps remaining elevated. This is mainly convective debris from upstream convection across the TN river valley spilling over top of the ridge axis. As we get into the day today, the main story will be well above normal temps. With us starting out so warm, it'll be easy to jump up into the low and mid 90s despite an expectation of high level cloudiness for much of the day. Despite pretty robust mixing, dewpoints are likely to end up in the upper 60s this afternoon resulting in peak heat index values in the 95F-100F range. Be sure to stay hydrated if you have outdoor activities during peak heating this afternoon. As we get into tonight, expect temperatures to remain warm as the front begins approaching the area. Lows should be in the low 70s across the area. There is some indication (esp in the HRRR) that a decaying line of storms could approach at the end of this period but the HRRR is by far the fastest with this so keeping PoPs low until other guidance suggests that scenario is correct. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - An approaching cold front could spark a few showers or thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon. A weak cold front should move through the forecast area Saturday, but guidance remains somewhat divided on precip potential. Several models indicate a strong line of convection will dissipate prior to reaching the western edge of the forecast area Saturday morning, while a few of the higher resolution models are a bit more robust with precip development into Saturday afternoon. That said, the other forecast question is regarding the timing of any convection that may develop. An earlier approach of the front would yield lesser thunder chanced given less instability, while a later passage may increase our severe potential with over 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Regardless, the entire CWA remains in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather in the Day 2 SPC SWO. Outside of the severe potential, which would mainly be for severe wind gusts given DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, gradient winds are expected to be gusty at times during the daytime hours ahead of the front, especially on area lakes. The cold front may stall in our area for Sunday and could once again trigger a few showers or thunderstorms, this time favoring the southern Midlands and CSRA. Upper level forcing should be weaker, with less of a severe threat. Temperatures this weekend will remain well above normal for both highs and lows. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - Hot and humid conditions continue, with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon through mid-week. Weak ridging remains over the area next week with a few shortwaves moving through the flow. A diffuse frontal boundary lingering in the area may help generate a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon. An upper trough and surface low will approach from the west mid-week, bringing a better chance at some showers and thunderstorms particularly on Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front could possibly pass through on Thursday morning, however confidence remains low on the timing, but cooler temperatures may return late next week. Prior to that, above normal temperatures should prevail through the extended period. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the forecast period. High cloud are copious across the region and are expected to be around for most of the period. These are a combination of debris clouds from convection in the upstate earlier as well as from upstream convection in the TN Valley. Given the likelihood that convection is going on most of the day there, high clouds will likely stream into the area all day. Otherwise, upper level ridging is expected to continue keeping things quiet today. VFR conditions are expected, with west-southwesterly winds through the period. As the front begins its approach late in this period, some LLWS may develop at area TAF sites but later forecasts will look at that more closely. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period barring low end chances for showers and thunderstorm each afternoon which could cause brief restrictions. && .HYDROLOGY... The North Fork of the Edisto River has crested and fallen below flood stage and the Flood Warning was cancelled earlier today, though we will keep the warning up downstream at Branchville where the river appears close to cresting. Elsewhere, the Congaree River points are steady or slowly falling. The river has likely crested and should gradually fall below flood stage later this week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ ####018003608#### FXUS64 KMAF 160749 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 249 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 241 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - High winds and blowing dust expected early next week, mainly in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. - Widespread critical fire weather conditions expected Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Despite a cold front moving through the area, temperatures stay above normal for today and reach into the mid 90s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Mid to upper 80s hold across parts of SE NM and the higher terrain to the west. 100s persist across Big Bend. High clouds streaming in from the west and southwest hold overhead and limit cooling tonight and keep lows above normal in the mid to upper 60s for most. Saturday is some what of a repeat to Friday, but with westerly winds slightly stronger and slightly less cloud cover, highs end up a couple degrees warmer areawide with most in the low to mid 90s. Despite a shortwave moving into the area, a lack of moisture inhibits any real shot at rain in the short term. Thus, rain chances remain quite low(<10%). -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Hot and breezy conditions will start the week off Sunday as a large-scale upper trough transitions east into the Plains. Leeside surface troughing will promote strong southwest, downslope flow across the region through Monday. High winds are looking likely across the Guadalupe Mountains with stronger winds spilling onto the adjacent plains. Will increase winds above NBM and add blowing dust as soils continue to dry. Temperatures will be hot with highs well above normal into the 90s/100s for most, and 80s across the higher terrain. These conditions will keep fire weather concerns high given it's been 10-14 days since our last significant rainfall. A cold front arrives early Tuesday as the upper trough passes well to our north. Northerly winds will bring in "cooler" conditions to help ease the heat for a few days. Temperatures will fall back closer to normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. Southerly winds return Thursday pushing temperatures back above normal. The extended forecast remains dry with low level moisture staying well to our east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Mainly light winds this evening shift around to the northwest and north. VFR conditions remain at all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 94 64 96 66 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 90 68 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 100 72 100 72 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 94 71 96 68 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 81 64 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 63 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 85 63 88 58 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 93 69 95 66 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 92 69 93 66 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 93 66 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...93 ####018006090#### FXUS63 KARX 160749 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy today with gusts from 35 to 45 mph. Scattered to areas of showers through tonight. - Drier, cooler and less windy end to the weekend. - Widespread rain chances return for Monday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 TODAY-TONIGHT: Windy. Scattered to areas of showers. The upper level closed low is edging into western MN early this morning, shifting over northern WI this evening. Lobes of shortwave energy will rotat.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Strong subsidence and steep 1000-700 mb lapse rates will continue to mix strong southwest winds to the surface. Sustained winds will range from 25 to 35 knots with gusts to 50 knots. These winds have been picking up dust from recently plowed farm fields and lowering visibilities to 2 miles or less at times. As diurnal mixing occurs on Friday, the sustained southwest winds will range from 20 to 30 knots and gust from 30 to 45 knots during the late morning and afternoon.e around the low while short term guidance also favors streaking a weak ripple from the southern plains to across southern WI by the afternoon. Add in favorable low level lapse rates and ample saturation and scattered to areas of showers will be the result. The instability axis is shifting east so not anticipating much/if any thunder threat. Currently across SD, just west of the sfc low center, winds are gusting in the upper 30s/lower 40s mph. That low shifts over northern WI this evening, but is progged to undergo some weakening as it does. Low level winds become unidirectional across the forecast area this morning, promoting deep mixing upwards of 9 kft at times. RAP/HRRR suggest winds at the top of the mix layer could flirt with the upper 50s/60 kts, but only briefly. Generally, both bring upper 30s to near 40 kts to the sfc via momentum transfer, topping gusts out in the lower 40s mph. Flirting with wind advisory criteria, but mostly below. However, if the EC is to be believed, the wind prone areas west of the Mississippi River will be gusting well into the 50s mph (almost 10% of its members reach 60 at KRST). EFIs for wind gusts continue 0.8 to 0.9 today with SoT of 1. The EPS has been running "hot" when it comes to winds and doesn't have a lot of support from the other short/medium range guidance. The GEFS, for instance, has only 20% of its members reaching 45 mph at KRST. Latest HREF suggests approx 40-80% for 40 mph gusts for much of the forecast area, but only spotty 10-20% to exceed 45. Tossing a lot of numbers, percentages out there...presenting a muddy picture. Sensible outcomes say it's going to be windy eitherway. For now, per coordination with surrounding offices, will hold of an advisory. Will keep a close eye on evolution/sfc observations through the day, adjusting forecast and potential headline needs if warranted. - WEEKEND: cooler, lingering showers Saturday. Sunday dry, sunny with much lighter winds. The upper level closed low will be across Mich Sat morning, exiting over the eastern Great Lakes by Sat evening. Cyclonic flow, lingering bits of shortwave energy, potentially a westward hanging sfc trough along with favorable low level lapse rates will continue a smattering of showers Sat - mostly across WI. These should all exit east by the evening. A shortwave ridge a loft moves in for Sunday, bringing the weekend to a dry, less windy, mostly sunny and seasonable close. - START OF NEW WORK WEEK: periods of showers GEFS and EPS have been favoring bringing a longwave trough from off the west coast this weekend, moving it over the mid mississippi river valley by Tue morning. Bits of shortwave energy will pinwheel around the trough. Fairly messy setup as there will be a few shortwaves at play that could merge/stay solo/or come together well east of the local area. While these details aren't clear, a branch of the low level jet looks to funnel moisture north then westward, feeding the upper level forcing. Sensible outcomes, sans clarity in some of the finer details, is for areas of rain to spread across the forecast area as early as Mon morning, with periods of rain potentially lingering into Wed. The EPS and GEFS are a bit quicker with bringing in the rain chances compared to previous runs and there has been some shift southward in the GEFS. For now, will let the model blend detail the rain chances - which are still looking likely for a large portion of the forecast area. The current track of the trough would hold much/if not all of the instability pool well south, limiting the threat for thunder. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Main forecast concern will be increased winds through Friday. At 16.06Z TAF issuance a temporary reprieve in winds seen from Nebraska to west-central Wisconsin affecting most of the local forecast area. As a result have added low level wind shear to both TAF sites for the next couple hours while surface winds are expected to abstain from gusts. This frontal boundary shifts southeast through the forecast area today increasing winds concurrent with daytime mixing. Subsequent accompanying precipitation also shifts southeast through the afternoon into the evening. Limited thunder chances primarily overnight into early Saturday morning. Little to no visibility restrictions expected but eventual MVFR ceilings potentially lowering to IFR towards the end of the 16.06Z TAF period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rieck AVIATION.....JAR ####018004396#### FXUS65 KTFX 160749 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 149 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers this afternoon, mainly near terrain. - Next more widespread precipitation system develops late tomorrow night into Sunday, lasting into early Monday. - Low-end opportunities for showers most afternoons toward the middle of next week, with temperatures slowly rising back to near or a touch above average by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: A deep upper level low has exited eastern MT and the Dakotas early this morning, leaving a zonal flow aloft across the Northern Rockies. Weak waves within this flow will maintain mainly afternoon shower opportunities, though showers at any point over the next day or so will be fair game. In the meantime, areas that see some clearing this morning will be candidates for fog development. Looking toward this weekend, two separate southeastward diving waves within a building trough across the west will interact/ pivot around each other off to the south beginning late Saturday, lasting into early Monday. This will result in a period of lower elevation rain and mountain snow, with the most likely period for heavier precipitation being Sunday. Snow levels do look to fall with this system, falling lowest as the system begins to pull away late Sunday night into early Monday morning. 50th percentile snow levels during this timeframe are around 5,500 ft, with 10th percentile snow levels (Reasonable low scenario) between 4,500 and 5,000 ft. The lowest snow levels are likely to follow the location of the highest precipitation rates, which are not high confidence yet. After this system departs Monday, a zonal flow looks to develop and persist through much of the week. Weak waves within this flow aloft will promote low-end opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms, though confidence in timing any particular wave is low at this time. Temperatures do look to trend closer to normal after Monday, however. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The two greatest points of uncertainty are related to the system late Saturday night through Monday morning. Ensemble averaged precipitation amounts for this system still show less than stellar confidence in location of greatest amounts given the large, broad bullseye of precipitation amounts encompassing most of the region. To give a little perspective regarding the uncertainty, NBM 10th to 90th percentile spread (Difference between reasonable high end amounts and low end amounts) is greater than one inch north of I-90, and is around three quarters of an inch south of I-90. In most cases the low end scenario (90% chance for more than this amount) is still only around a tenth of an inch of total precipitation for most locations away from terrain. The story is similar with respect to snow levels. The difference between reasonable high end and low end snow levels is still more than 2,000ft. Trends will continue to be monitored for any late breaking consensus for the Late Saturday night through Monday system. -AM && .AVIATION... 16/06Z TAF Period Showers have largely ended across the area but broken VFR/MVFR low cloud ceilings and areas of mountain obscuration persist across much of the area overnight. Some partial clearing is likely later in the overnight period, which would promote the development of local IFR ceilings and/or fog. Otherwise, most locations should see a return to VFR conditions Friday morning with showers redeveloping Friday afternoon. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 61 39 65 46 / 50 30 30 60 CTB 59 36 63 41 / 50 30 20 50 HLN 61 41 66 46 / 40 30 40 70 BZN 58 38 64 42 / 40 60 40 70 WYS 51 32 58 35 / 70 70 40 80 DLN 55 37 62 40 / 60 50 30 80 HVR 64 40 67 43 / 20 50 60 40 LWT 57 38 61 42 / 50 50 70 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018005434#### FXUS64 KOUN 160749 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 249 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 239 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - Severe weather is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. - Above normal temperatures will continue well into early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A weak front will continue to move across the area today. Depending on the timing/speed of this front, a few thunderstorms may develop/affect SE parts of the fa later this afternoon/early evening. Some models have the storms developing and remaining just south of the area but if storms do occur in the fa the instability and shear will make severe storms possible with large hail and damaging winds the primary concerns. Despite the front, temperatures are expected to be above average with highs ranging from the mid 80s (N OK) to low 90s (along Red River). Lows tonight (Fri night) are forecast to be similar to this morning with temperatures ranging from the low 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Models show a mid level disturbance moving into the southern Plains Saturday. Meanwhile, at the sfc the front that moves through today will lift back north as a warm front. There is some uncertainty as to how far north the warm front will lift but current models show it making it as far north as I-40 or to areas just south. A dryline is also expected to extend southward in/near the western parts of the fa. Convection will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening aided by lift from the mid level disturbance and boundaries. Moist, unstable airmass is expected to move into the area south of the warm front and east of the dryline. Strong instability and wind shear will make severe storms possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible. There is also a low risk for tornadoes. Another day of severe weather is expected on Sunday. Models show a shortwave approaching and moving into the Plains. Meanwhile, a dryline is expected to sharpen and move into western portions of the fa. There is some question on how far east the dryline will move but looks like it will remain in western OK/western north TX. Storm development will be possible near and east of the dryline Sunday afternoon/evening. The environment east of the dryline will be unstable which will bring the severe potential with all hazards possible. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Severe storms will remain possible Monday and maybe Tuesday. The dryline will retreat some Sunday but then move east across portions of the fa again Monday. A cold front then is expected to move across the area Monday night into Tuesday. At upper levels, the trough that remains over the western U.S. through the weekend will move east into the Plains Monday into Tuesday providing some additional lift to the area. Storm development will once again be possible near and east of the dryline Monday afternoon/evening. Storms will remain possible into Monday night/early Tuesday as the front begins to move across the area. The moist, unstable airmass will continue east of the dryline and south of the front so the severe storm potential will continue Monday into early Tuesday. All hazards will be possible. Additional severe storms could be possible again on Tuesday but there is more uncertainty and could be somewhat dependent on how things evolve Monday night into early Tuesday. The upper trough is expected to move east of the area Tuesday/ Tuesday night although a shortwave rotating around the backside will drag a re-enforcing cold front across the area. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be a little bit cooler with highs more in the 70s to low 80s whereas over the weekend into Monday highs are expected to be in the 80s and 90s. With multiple days of severe storms possible, everyone needs to stay weather aware through the weekend into early next week but not everyone is going to see storms every single day. In other words, some days will be dry for some. With some uncertainties in the details, check the forecast for the latest information. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Light south/southeast winds will veer to the west and then northwest as a cold front moves through. Stratus may develop across southeast Oklahoma tomorrow morning, which will likely impact KDUA. Winds will become light and variable tomorrow evening. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 87 59 84 65 / 0 0 10 20 Hobart OK 88 58 87 64 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 91 63 91 68 / 0 0 20 10 Gage OK 85 51 84 58 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 85 53 81 61 / 0 0 10 40 Durant OK 89 64 89 68 / 20 10 60 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...10 ####018007272#### FXUS61 KBGM 160749 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 349 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday. Cooler weather with a few lingering showers is expected for the second half of the weekend on Sunday. Drier but still cool weather is then anticipated for the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 950 PM Update... The shower activity has tapered off across much of the area and skies have started to clear. There are some pockets of fog beginning to develop, so did add in some patchy fog for tonight through early tomorrow morning, although with increasing clouds ahead of a morning round of showers and thunderstorms, much of the fog may be through around 08-09Z. The CAMs were a bit slower with the arrival with the morning convection, so did slow down the eastward progression after 10Z. The rest of the forecast remains on track at this time. 345 PM Update: As an upper level trough axis is moving through this afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed. These thunderstorms have been on the weaker side with somewhat limited instability and very little shear. That being said, with a weak steering flow present, these showers and thunderstorms have been on the slow moving side. As a result, while flooding has not been an issue so far, there is still a possibility for some isolated instances of flash flooding. The scattered showers and slow moving isolated thunderstorms quickly diminish this evening, with dry weather expected for most of the overnight. Stratus clouds and patchy fog are likely to develop once again. A decaying MCS/QLCS quickly approaches from the west late at night into early Friday morning; likely reaching Steuben/Bradford counties around daybreak. This line should be weakening as it rolls through due to limited instability in place. It will be mild overnight with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s. The weakening line of showers and isolated thunderstorms quickly moves east across most of the forecast area Friday morning. After this initial morning convection, conditions should dry out and clouds break for partly sunny skies heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon along a cold front. However there is some question on how dry mid level air and capping could limit convective development. Otherwise, Friday will be rather warm and humid with highs in the upper 70s to mid- 80s and surface dew points in the low to mid-60s. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday night with very brief weak ridging building in and the loss of diurnal heating. Lows are expected to be mainly in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update... The frontal system that moves across the region during the daytime hours should be just about through by the late evening hours. Lingering showers and thunderstorms will remain possible until it exits the region. Then an upper low swings through the region late Saturday night and during the daytime on Sunday. This system will bring the next round of showers to the region. There will be no instability present, so thunderstorms are not expected. A cooler airmass will also drop in with this system resulting in a cool and rainy end to the weekend. Winds will be breezy Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens up around a surface low that will be just north of the region. As this system moves east of the region Sunday night, northwest flow will continue to advect cool air southward as showers continue. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and mid 50s Saturday night. Then temps will struggle to rebound much as highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Portions of the Wyoming Valley be close to 70 as skies are expected to clear some across the far southern portions of the region. Lows on Sunday will be in the 40s for most of the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 345 AM Update... Dry but cool conditions are in store for early next week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be below normal throughout the long term period. Winds will remain breezy Monday as the aforementioned system continues to move through. This will result in blustery conditions, at least for this time of year, during the morning hours. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday morning as temperatures plummet under mostly clear skies and calming winds. Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday and likely into part of Tuesday night as guidance has slowed down the arrival of the next system. Another upper low will move into the Great Lakes region midweek as a surface low develops along the coast. This system will bring widespread rain to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with rain then continuing Thursday. Coverage on Thursday may not completely cover the area depending on the location of the surface low by then. There is some spread between guidance on where the lows set up and how quickly they move through, so similarly to previous updates, NBM guidance continues to be favored for this time period. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 150 AM Update Mainly VFR conditions expected through daybreak at our taf sites. There is valley and patchy fog forming early this morning, along with an area of MVFR stratus clouds over the Catskills and Poconos. High clouds are starting to overspread the area from western NY at this time, and the thinking is that these will prevent thick fog from developing in the Chemung river valley. ELM did see some brief LIFR fog, but it dissipated. Kept a mention of MVFR fog in the taf here through daybreak or 10-11z. A weakening line of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms is forecast to push into our western terminals between about 12-14z this morning, reaching BGM--ITH-SYR by 13-15z and finally AVP by 14-16z. There is uncertainty in just how strong this line of showers and potential t'storms will be as it moves through. For this updated added in tempo groups at all taf sites except RME, for MVFR vsbys, CIGs with moderate to locally heavy rain...best chance to see TSRA will be at ELM with this morning's activity. PROB30 groups for additional scattered thunderstorms were added for all taf sites between about 18-23z but confidence is currently low for exact timing at any one terminal. Outlook... Tonight through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM NEAR TERM...BJG/DK SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL/ES AVIATION...KL/MJM