####018003731#### FXUS63 KFGF 130914 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 414 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers chances Tuesday to Friday. Probability of 0.75 inch qpf Wed-Fri 50 percent northeast ND. This rainfall may impact the ongoing harvest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...Synopsis... Surface low continues to move northeast thru Manitoba and is located in northeast Manitoba at 08z. Period of wind gusts and cold advection went thru the area in the mid to late evening producing a period of wind gusts 50-55 mph Devils Lake, Langdon and Wahalla ND 0230z-0430z with wind gusts 40-49 mph in most other locations in the 03z-05z period. Gusty winds continue but speeds less and wind speeds will lower thru the day as low moves northeast away from the area. Thus wind advisory that was left for Devils Lake basin expired at 4 am. Monitoring area of stratocu moving southeast and east around the upper low in central Manitoba but as the low moves north the 850 mb moisture layer does weaken today. Plus thicker stratocu having a hard time making it much farther south and east than Baudette-Thief River Falls-Grafton-New Rockford. Would expect some dayime heating CU today with residual 850 mb moisture north, after thicker early morning clouds in the north move out. Anticipate a sunny day southeast ND and west central MN. Highs today mostly low to mid 50s, but some upper 40s far north. Tonight high pressure will build into western Manitoba with high pressure ridge southeast into northern MN giving light winds, clear sky and allowing temps to drop likely a few degrees below guidance. So based on collab with DLH did trend toward NBM90/75 for lows tonight in NW MN. Clouds moving northward into southeast ND will keep this area closer to guidance. Tuesday thru the end of the week will feature several days with chances for showers as a deep 500 mb trough over the western US affects our weather with region in southwest flow. One weak short wave to bring some rain showers Tuesday mainly though south and western ND and into SD, central MN. NBM which was used for pops are a bit drier in northeast ND/northwest MN Tuesday than GFS which does bring chance of showers to the Canadian border Tues aftn/eve. Stronger 500 mb wave that will be over southern California will move northeast and is forecast to be in western ND into Manitoba via GFS, with 00z ECMWF a bit farther west. GFS ensembles support a sligh west track for Wed late into Friday morning with track of system. Shower chances increase with likely pops Thursday over all the region, with heaviest rainfall with 50 pct probs of more than 0.75 inch centered in northeast into central ND 12z Wed to 12z Fri. Warm sector east of the system over our area with MU CAPES reaching 500 j/kg and high temps around 70 in southern RRV Thursday so do have a chance for t-storms, though no severe weather anticipated. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Ceilings are already on the rise, with VFR expected throughout the TAF period outside of a few hours of MVFR early at KDVL. Winds will remain gusty out of the west to start the night, slowly decreasing through the morning and afternoon on Monday. Gusts will finally drop off Monday morning/afternoon. These lighter winds will persist out of the north through the end of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Rafferty