####018004932#### FXUS64 KMEG 160811 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 311 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 310 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight with strong tornadoes, perhaps long tracked, damaging winds and very large hail. - An Enhanced (3 out of 5) to Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk for severe weather is in effect across the northern half of the Mid- South this afternoon into tonight. - Saturday will be mostly dry and warm. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday night through the middle of next week with chances for severe storms each day, especially Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The active spring continues across the Mid-South. Currently we are monitoring a mid level jet moving across the region this morning which will serve to enhance lift and weaken the cap in place across the region. Convection has been struggling so far but the latest CAMs indicate robust development over the next few hours. The airmass is very unstable with MLCAPES of 2500-3500 J/kg. Shear is plenty sufficient for organized storms with 0-6km bulk shear values of 60-70 kts. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds but the low level thermodynamics could also support a tornado. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 am roughly north of I-40. This activity will push east in Middle TN by mid morning as the upper support lifts out. The airmass almost immediately recovers as gusty SSW winds continue to advect warm, moist air into the Mid-South. The airmass becomes very unstable by the afternoon with dewpoints in the lower 70s and enormous MLCAPEs in excess of 3500 J/kg. A cold front approaches the region this afternoon as a mid level jet moves into the Mid-MS Valley. This feature will provide the lift to trigger storms along and just ahead of the front late this afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear values of 50-60 kts this afternoon and evening with 0-1km helicity values increasing to well over 200 m2/s2 will support organized storms. These storms will likely be discrete with all hazards expected including strong tornadoes, perhaps long tracked, very large hail and damaging winds. The lift across the Mid-South is not overwhelming strong which will serve to keep the storms at least semi-discrete as they gradually form into a line during the evening. This will keep the strong tornado threat going well into the evening hours especially along and north of the TN/MS border. The higher end severe threat will end by about midnight as storms move into Middle TN. A lower end severe threat will continue across north MS as convection lingers there until about 4 am. The front/boundary along with associated convection will push well south of the region by Saturday. The Mid-South will be in between systems and should squeak out a pretty nice, warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday afternoon. The front/boundary will lift back north into the area starting Saturday night and remain over the region into early next week. This will result in unsettled weather and chances for showers and thunderstorms each day with a low end severe threat. Expect a more organized severe risk by Tuesday as a potent mid level trough pushes across the region along with its associated cold front. Dry and cool weather is expected in the wake of Tuesday's system as a deep upper trough is carved out across the eastern US with NW flow developing across the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Nailing down the timing of each window of precip is quite difficult this period as CAMs have been handling the initiation quite poorly thus far. Given the northward trend of overnight convection through 12Z, opted to make some pretty drastic changes to MEM and MKL's precip for the next several hours. The vast majority of the day looks completely dry for most areas. Main show looks to be Friday night after 00Z, and will likely also pack a punch with gusty winds as the convection materializes along a very strong cold front. In terms of ceilings, don't think there will be more than a few hours of MVFR this (Fri) morning, otherwise VFR looks to prevail for all sites. Gusty non- thunderstorm winds from the SW will also prevail for the majority of the day into the evening tomorrow, finally diminishing overnight into Saturday. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CAD ####018006198#### FXUS61 KRLX 160811 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 411 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible today into tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Friday... Key Points: * Rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible today and tonight. * Damaging winds are the main concern, though large hail and tornadoes are also possible. Heavy rain could also lead to localized high water issues. Light precipitation is possible early this morning, then rounds of stronger showers and storms are expected to arrive from the southwest mid morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate a favorable environment in which severe storms may form during the day, particularly across central and southern portions of the CWA. Activity may temporarily diminish this evening before another robust band of showers and storms arrives ahead of a cold front. Even better potential for severe weather is expected to occur as this band sweeps east overnight. Most of the area falls under an enhanced risk of severe weather though tonight, with damaging winds as the primary concern. however, large hail and tornadoes will also be possible. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is also present for today and tonight as heavy downpours could cause localized high water issues. Temperatures are expected to reach upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands and 70s to low 80s in the mountains today. Lows remain fairly mild, with mid 50s to 60s expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Key Points: * Ongoing outbreak of severe weather Friday night that could pose concerns for all hazards * A succession of cold fronts will bring precipitation and severe weather to a close on Saturday * Dry weather to round out the weekend The forecast period opens up in the midst of severe weather brought forth by a bowing segment first originating in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday afternoon. Ongoing uncertainty with this evolving system will dictate the severity factor Friday night, but as of this issuance, strong wording for damaging wind gusts and large hail were included through midnight Friday night. The risk for tornadoes and heavy downpours will also be probable in activity. The low pressure system orchestrating this severe weather will be progressing through the Great Lakes region at the start of the weekend, and will drive a cold front through the forecast area on Saturday. This will bring precipitation to a gradual end and will push the severe risk into the eastern seaboard on Saturday. A reinforcing cold front will yield dry weather to round out the weekend in addition to cooling temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... The start of the work week grows more active as shortwave energy rounding an upper level ridge ventures into the area starting late Monday. Guidance then enters into a realm of various solutions for next week, but all point towards a more active state as the ridge breaks down and low pressure blankets the area with showers and more potential for thunderstorms. Seasonable temperatures round out the extended period, with daytime highs ranging in the 60s and 70s, then toppling down into the 40s and 50s during the overnight periods. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM Friday... Most of the area should remain VFR this morning, though a few terminals could dip to MVFR due to lower ceilings. While showers will continue to graze the area before sunrise, better chances of rain and thunderstorms are expected to arrive mid morning into the afternoon. Activity should briefly diminish during the evening before a new line of storms passes west to east across the area Friday night. Periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible within any heavier showers or storms that develop during the TAF period. Light to moderate southwest winds may gust into the teens at times this morning. Winds then strengthen for the afternoon when gusts into the 20 to 25 kt range will be possible. Even stronger gusts are expected to occur within storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. A brief period of LLWS could also be possible before wind gusts initiate later today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/16/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible in heavy rain and storms Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/20 NEAR TERM...20 SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...20