####018003356#### FXUS65 KBOI 160818 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 218 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A weak shortwave trough will bring light showers this morning. Skies will mostly clear out from west to east this afternoon. A much more significant shortwave trough will move through the area late tonight and Saturday, bringing high chances (70-99%) of rain/snow and a chance of thunderstorms. QPF Saturday through Sunday night will range from 0.2-0.4 at lower elevations up to 0.5 to 1 inch in the mountains. A cold front will accompany the system, moving through Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Snow accumulations Sat through Sunday night will range from 2 to 6 inches above around 7000 ft MSL. Temperatures today will be about 10 degrees below normal, then get a few degrees cooler Saturday and Sunday. Showers will decrease from west to east Sunday, and most showers will be in the higher terrain on the Idaho side Sunday afternoon. Winds will become fairly strong early Sunday, with gusts 30-45 mph common Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds will be south and east of Boise, and a wind advisory is likely to be needed as we get closer in time if guidance doesn't change much. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...An small upper level ridge will race over the area Monday, and should be followed by a weak and slightly moist shortwave embedded in zonal flow Tuesday. The result is a chance of showers across the higher terrain of the north Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Snow levels in the north will range from 6500 to 7500 ft MSL, with only minimal snow accumulations forecast. Zonal flow is forecast to continue Wed and Thu before being replaced by WSW flow Friday. This will lead to a dry period with a warming trend. Temperatures should climb to near normal Tue and Wed, before rising to a few degrees above normal Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR. MVFR possible (20-40%) from ceilings in rain showers SE OR through 14Z, then in SW ID from around 10Z through 18Z. Precipitation chances linger in higher elevations through 00Z Saturday. Mountains obscured at time. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, gusting up to 20 kt near KTWF/KJER after 16Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. MVFR possible (20-35% chance) in showers during morning. Ceilings to rise during afternoon. Surface winds: W-NW 3-6 kt overnight increasing to 8-13 kt afternoon. Weekend Outlook... VFR to MVFR and a slight chance of IFR Saturday with widespread precipitation and isolated thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Mountains obscured at times. Snow levels 7000-8500 ft MSL Saturday. Precipitation moves out from west to east Sunday, with improving conditions (mostly VFR, but mountain obscuration still likely). Surface wind increasing to 15-30 kt gusting up to 25-40 kt Sunday. Snow levels falling to 5000-7000 ft MSL Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....SP AVIATION.....SP ####018006708#### FXUS61 KRLX 160819 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 419 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible today into tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Friday... Key Points: * Rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible today and tonight. * Damaging winds are the main concern, though large hail and tornadoes are also possible. Heavy rain could also lead to localized high water issues. Light precipitation is possible early this morning, then rounds of stronger showers and storms are expected to arrive from the southwest mid morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate a favorable environment in which severe storms may form during the day, particularly across central and southern portions of the CWA. Activity may temporarily diminish this evening before another robust band of showers and storms arrives ahead of a cold front. Even better potential for severe weather is expected to occur as this band sweeps east overnight. Most of the area falls under an enhanced risk of severe weather though tonight, with damaging winds as the primary concern. however, large hail and tornadoes will also be possible. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is also present for today and tonight as heavy downpours could cause localized high water issues. Temperatures are expected to reach upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands and 70s to low 80s in the mountains today. Lows remain fairly mild, with mid 50s to 60s expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Friday... The cold front bringing the potential for severe weather in the near term will not actually push through the area until Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. While the severe and heavy rain threats should be east of the area by dawn Saturday, showers and even thunderstorms are still possible in and near the mountains Saturday morning, and up north in wrap around moisture closer to the mid/upper-level low crossing the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon. Gradient flow and good mixing Saturday will result in strong winds, with peak gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph across the lowlands, and 40 to 45 mph across the highest ridges, where a wind advisory may be needed if confidence increases in higher gusts. These strong winds will diminish Saturday night. Dry weather is then expected Saturday night through Sunday night, as drier air arrives from the northwest Saturday and Saturday night, and then surface ridging noses in from the northwest Sunday and Sunday night. Central guidance reflects modest cooling over the weekend, which brings temperatures down to near normal for Sunday and Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 AM Friday... Unsettled weather appears to be on tap again for the next work week, as low pressure rumbles across the area. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms as early as midday and afternoon Monday, if some of the overnight warm advection convection upstream Sunday night can survive or refire. After a dry Monday night as ridging briefly re-establishes, showers and thunderstorms are likely late Tuesday through Wednesday, as a southern stream low pressure system rumbles across the area beneath a rex block. How quickly the weather then dries out behind the system late next week depends upon whether it can come out from beneath the rex block by becoming absorbed by a northern stream short wave trough east of the block. However, even that scenario results in a mid/upper- level low that may take the remainder of the work week to lumber far enough east to finally take precipitation out of the area. Temperatures hover close to normal ahead of the system early in the work week, before slipping below normal for the latter portion of the work week, as the system lumbers across. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM Friday... Most of the area should remain VFR this morning, though a few terminals could dip to MVFR due to lower ceilings. While showers will continue to graze the area before sunrise, better chances of rain and thunderstorms are expected to arrive mid morning into the afternoon. Activity should briefly diminish during the evening before a new line of storms passes west to east across the area Friday night. Periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible within any heavier showers or storms that develop during the TAF period. Light to moderate southwest winds may gust into the teens at times this morning. Winds then strengthen for the afternoon when gusts into the 20 to 25 kt range will be possible. Even stronger gusts are expected to occur within storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. A brief period of LLWS could also be possible before wind gusts initiate later today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/16/25 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/20 NEAR TERM...20 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...20 ####018007846#### FXUS61 KOKX 160819 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 419 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple surface troughs move through today and Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday night. A secondary cold front moves through Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Low pressure lingers in New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through Monday as high pressure pushes in. High pressure remains in control Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The upper level trough can now be seen to our east on latest satellite imagery. Heights may briefly rise aloft heading into the early morning hours. At the surface, a very weak pressure gradient is leading to calm to light winds. This and the moisture available from several days on onshore flow has resulted in fog around the area. With the fog being locally dense, have issued an SPS through 13z. The convection forecast today and Saturday continues to be very tricky. There will be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms with different forcing mechanisms. The first chance will be with any activity that moves into our area this morning from the potential decaying MCS/broken line from the west. CAMs are not all that excited about this feature, but can not rule out some of this making it into far western portions of our area. Radar trends upstream will be monitored as this activity nears. Will have a better idea once, if at all, convection starts to enter western PA. As we head into the afternoon, shortwave energy approaches and instability increases as we warm to the upper 70s with mid 60s dewpoints. Some showers and thunderstorms likely spark just west and move towards the area. Highest chances are once again north and west of NYC, but can not rule out a shower or thunderstorm anywhere. Some organized convection is possible with this afternoon activity given increased instability and shear along with better curvature in the low levels on model hodographs. At this time the main hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts or large hail, again mainly north and west of NYC. This activity will decrease heading into tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low continues approaching on Saturday with shortwave energy ejecting out ahead of it. Similar forecast challenges in the morning hours as there may be some sort of approaching convection left over from what happens in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region tonight. Then, once again, the area destabilizes ahead of a cold front. While CAMs are not overly excited about this either, there is potential for more widespread convection over the area Sunday afternoon given stronger forcing, instability(MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg) and shear(0-6km bulk shear around 40kt). This will also lead to more widespread chances of storms reaching severe thresholds. The SPC has placed the western half of the area in a slight risk. As of right now, the main threat is damaging wind gusts. Model hodographs will have to be watched as there is some indication of favorable low level shear and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Latest Nam3km and HRRR show around 150 m2/s2 of effective inflow layer SRH. The cold front moves through Saturday night and then a secondary cold front moves through Sunday and Sunday night. PoPs lower significantly, but there will be additional slight chances of showers across the interior Sunday afternoon with the upper low above us. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly sunny skies take over as high pressure centered over or near Hudson Bay in Canada gradually noses into the area Monday into Tuesday night, keeping the area dry. To our northeast, low pressure will continue to exit into New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through. This will lead to breezy W/WNW winds from an increased pressure gradient through Monday. A frontal system from the Great Plains then moves into the Ohio or Tennessee River Valleys on Tuesday, moving through or in the vicinity of our region Wednesday into Thursday. Expecting showers during this timeframe. Too soon to call chances for thunderstorms. Model guidance still varies with timing, magnitude, and track of this frontal system. Have gone with chance POPs Wednesday into Thursday as a result. Temperatures look to cool each day in the long-term period, especially towards Wednesday and Thursday with clouds and rain limiting any heating. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and by Thursday, with will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows will range from the middle 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A surface trough approaches and moves through from the west today. Expecting IFR or lower through daybreak today. Improvement to MVFR this afternoon, but with potential showers. A passing thunderstorm is possible, mainly for the NYC terminals, but the chances for this are decreasing. Improvement to VFR for some terminals late in the day such as the metro terminals and KSWF. Conditions deteriorate once again for all terminals to IFR or lower tonight. Light and variable winds through daybreak becoming southerly at 10 kt or less for today and continue into tonight with outlying terminals becoming light and variable again. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of IFR onset could be off by an hour or two for KTEB and KLGA. Timing of improving categories on Friday may also be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night: IFR or lower. Saturday: IFR to start, improving to MVFR mid-morning, then becoming VFR in the afternoon with showers likely, and a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland. W winds G20- 25kt. Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Dense fog on all waters is expected to continue through late morning. Fog will then return tonight, potentially becoming dense again. Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through Sunday for the most part. There looks to be brief potential for 25 kt gusts Sunday afternoon, mainly for NY Harbor, western Sound and western Ocean. During this time, seas on the ocean could also approach 5 ft. Outside of this, there is potential for showers and thunderstorms each day, with potential for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will be locally higher in any storms. Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria for Monday. However, there is a low to medium chance of 25 kt wind gusts over the ocean waters with low pressure over the Gulf of Maine creating an increased pressure gradient. Thereafter winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria due to lack of any strong pressure gradient across the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/JT NEAR TERM...JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP MARINE...JP/JT HYDROLOGY...JP/JT ####018005643#### FXUS64 KBRO 160819 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 319 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The main concern in the short term will be the oppressive daytime heat. The 500mb subtropical ridge will continue to bring dry and hot summer-like conditions over Deep South Texas through the period. Near record to record high temperatures will be possible today and Saturday. The combination of the unseasonable hot temperatures and higher humidity will support heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees across most of Deep South Texas this afternoon, which is just below Heat Advisory criteria. The temperatures and dewpoints appears slightly too high based on previous surface observations and current trends. Therefore, made minor adjustments to the hourly daytime temperatures. Decided to use a 50/50 CONSShort/NBM blend for dewpoints. An SPS has been issued for Starr and Hidalgo to Brooks and Kenedy counties due to brief Heat Index values 110 to 113 degrees this afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed Saturday across the same area, with slightly higher humidity values forecast. A majority of the CWA is under a Major Risk (level 3 of 4) of heat- related illness for today and Saturday. Isolated areas of Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will be possible this afternoon and Saturday afternoon across portions of the ranchlands and Rio Grande Plains. An slightly enhance pressure gradient will lead to moderate to breezy south to southeast winds through the period. There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at local beaches today through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The subtropical ridge holds a dry and hot summer-like pattern across Deep South Texas into mid-week. Persistent low pressure across the Plains, with a surface ridge anchored across the eastern Gulf, will maintain an enhanced pressure gradient locally and increase humidity into Tuesday. A cold front drops south mid to late next week, potentially stalling across the ranchlands, with a surface ridge building across the Plains into South Texas. This will finally provide some relief from the heat, less wind, and more comfortable humidity values. POPs remain very low. Heat Advisories may be needed Monday and Tuesday. Heat Risk levels range from Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) Sunday and Monday, with Moderate to Major (level 3 of 4) on Tuesday. Record highest low temperatures will once again become threatened, especially Monday and Tuesday mornings. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Southeast winds between 10 to 15 knots with some passing low cloud prevail across deep south Texas early this morning. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate an area of low stratus deck near to coast producing MVFR ceilings at BRO and PIL. These low clouds with MVFR ceilings are expected to move inland and impact HRL and MFE overnight. Light to moderate southeast winds overnight will increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Some gusts around 25 knots will be possible this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to return later this morning as the winds increase. MVFR ceilings will return later this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Today through Saturday...A slightly enhanced pressure gradient will produce weak to moderate southeast flow and moderate seas through the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected on the Laguna Madre and the Gulf waters today into Saturday due to elevated winds and/or seas. Saturday Night through Thursday...Moderate southeasterly winds generally continue into mid next week, with SCEC to borderline SCA conditions every afternoon on the bay and nearshore waters. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Both McAllen and Brownsville, including a 132 year record for Brownsville, high temperature records were tied yesterday. High temperatures this afternoon will also approach record temperatures. The daily record highest low temperatures also also be reached this Friday morning. High temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two lower for Saturday, but record high temperatures are still possible across the Rio Grande Valley Saturday afternoon. May 16th (Today) Record High Temperature / Highest Low Temperature Brownsville: 95 in 2024 / 81 in 2024 Harlingen: 97 in 2003 / 78 in 1999 McAllen: 100 in 2003 / 81 in 2024 May 17th (Saturday) Record High Temperature / Highest Low Temperature Brownsville: 96 in 1946 / 80 in 2017 Harlingen: 97 in 2018 / 79 in 1961 McAllen: 102 in 1946 / 81 in 2017 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 79 92 78 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 80 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 78 84 79 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 78 90 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...63