####018005826#### FXUS64 KJAN 160828 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 328 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Today through Saturday Night... The forecast remains on track for the short term period with global guidance continuing to show the ridge axis flattening across the southeast region today. This will allow for quasi-zonal flow to prevail across the CWA through the weekend with afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. With this qusai-zonal flow expected across the region today, an unstable airmass will begin to move into the region. This airmass, combined with a couple of upper-level disturbances aloft and some northerly moisture flow from the Tennessee Valley, will allow for rain/storm chances across central/northern portions of our CWA later tonight through the Sunday evening/night timeframe. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be across northern portions of our forecast area including portions of southeast Arkansas and portions of northeast Louisiana. The "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for tonight will continue to be advertised with no changes made to the outlook. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail up to quarter size for areas highlighted in the "Marginal" risk. No changes have been made to the severe graphic at this time for tonight and a "Slight" risk (2 out of 5) will continue to be advertised for northwest portions of our CWA. Damaging wind gust up to 60-70 mph and hail up to golf ball size will be the main concerns for areas highlighted in the "Slight" risk. A brief spin up tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated severe storms will continue across our forecast area looking ahead into Saturday afternoon/evening with afternoon highs peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Depending how the rain pans out come Saturday afternoon, it is possible that a couple of areas along and south of I-20 could see heat indices around 100 degrees. Regardless, the "Marginal" risk will continue to be advertised for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size will be the main hazards for areas highlighted in the "Marginal" risk. A "Slight" risk will continue to be advertised for portions of the Delta including portions of southeast Arkansas. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall at times, with rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1 inches with local higher amount possible especially for areas along and north of Hwy 82. Given that this system will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash flooding concerns will be low; however, some localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Sunday through Thursday... Another round of thunderstorms will occur heading into Sunday afternoon/evening with a few strong/isolated severe t-storms possible mainly for areas north of I-20. A "Marginal" risk has been introduced for Sunday, however there are some discrepancies that remain regarding the uncertainty of this system for Sunday. Nevertheless, trends will continued to be monitored and details will be ironed out as we get closer to Sunday. Rain chances will begin to decrease Sunday night into the new work week as a sfc ridge builds over the southeast CONUS. Quiet conditions will continue across much of our forecast area with a slight chance of scattered showers across portions of the Golden Triangle heading into Monday afternoon. Quiet weather conditions will occur across the area looking ahead into Tuesday morning as future global guidance shows the ridge axis beginning to slowly push east away from our forecast area giving us a small little break from the rain. A significant 1004mb low pressure system hovering over the Central Plains will push east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday afternoon/evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas will track east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening. This combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf will help reintroduce isolated to scattered showers/t-storm chances across our entire CWA. Storm chances will continue heading into Wednesday as the cold pushes east across our forecast area. Rain chances will start to diminish across the region looking ahead into Thursday as the cold front tracks southeast out of our forecast area towards the Gulf Coast giving us a nice little break from the rain. Weather conditions will remain quiet heading into Friday with mostly sunny skies by the weekend. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 144 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions to start the period as scattered to broken low stratus is beginning to spread north from the Gulf Coast. Mixing and lifting of the between 14Z-17Z should bring prevailing VFR conditions by 18Z at all sites. Gusty winds to return in that time frame as well, with gusts up to around 20-25 kts possible. Chances for any showers or storms near KGLH were too low to include at this time, though cannot be entirely ruled out between 00Z-06Z Saturday. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 74 91 71 / 0 20 30 20 Meridian 92 72 91 71 / 0 20 40 20 Vicksburg 90 74 91 72 / 0 30 30 20 Hattiesburg 94 74 94 72 / 0 0 20 10 Natchez 89 74 91 72 / 0 10 10 10 Greenville 89 72 89 73 / 10 70 20 40 Greenwood 90 71 89 72 / 10 70 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/NF ####018006112#### FXUS63 KDVN 160829 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 329 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southwest to west winds today into this evening, potentially peaking near advisory criteria at 40 - 45+ mph. Potential also for convection to mix down even higher winds (isolated severe this afternoon/early evening?). - Active weather returns early next week. Highest chances (60-80%) are focused Monday and Tuesday where widespread beneficial soaking rain appears likely. Confidence on any severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A closed low will move slowly east across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Early this morning upper level water vapor imagery shows a couple of shortwaves upstream, one currently shifting across western Kansas and the other quickly on its heels diving into Colorado, both denoted by some mid cloudiness. The first wave in Kansas is the feature that will largely drive our precipitation chances as it lifts northeastward into our region by this afternoon on the southern periphery of the closed low. Several CAMs including the HRRR, MPAS-HT-NSSL, WRF NSSL and NAMNest all support potential for some decaying nocturnal LLJ assisted precipitation (showers/ sprinkles) arriving by mid to late morning mainly west of the Mississippi River. Then heading toward peak heating this afternoon more robust convective development occurs within a corridor of mean MUCAPE of 500-1000+ j/kg per the 00z HREF. Very steep lapse rates and inverted V type profiles with very high LCL heights would support marginal severe wind as the primary threat especially east of the Mississippi River, where SPC has a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for some of our eastern counties. Don't get too locked into the isolated severe potential being just for our east, as the profiles (very steep low level lapse rates and high momentum fields aloft) are conducive nearly areawide for some mixdown of stronger near severe winds with any convection of more vigor that can survive dry air entrainment and persist. The secondary shortwave digging into Colorado looks to have its eyes set further south of the area into parts of the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys supporting the potential for a more widespread severe weather outbreak in these areas. An additional chance (20-30%) for showers and possibly a storm for our area will return late PM/evening in the wrap-around and potential embedded spoke of energy rotating down into the area. Outside of any convection, a residual tight pressure gradient in combination with a favorable set up for mixing down of higher momentum air with nearly unidirectional flow through a deep layer and very steep lapse rates, will support strong wind gusts at times today into this evening of 35 to 45 mph from the southwest veering to westerly by this evening. Will need to keep an eye on the need for a wind advisory. Confidence is just not high enough at this time on reaching widespread criteria with NBM and HREF probabilities at 20-40% for sustained winds >30 mph and gusts >45 mph. Highs today could feature a decent thermal gradient with the mid/late morning shower/sprinkle potential and attendant clouds possibly limiting some western areas to the mid/upper 70s, while areas to the south/east in the very deep mixing top out in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Low pressure will continue to slowly shift across the Great Lakes region this weekend. This will keep the area in cyclonic flow with breezy conditions for Saturday and cooler, more seasonable highs from the mid/upper 60s to the mid 70s. Sunday, the low will be far enough to allow for surface high pressure to build in bringing much lighter winds with temperatures moderating back into the 70s areawide. Early week the pattern looks very conducive for widespread soaking rains, as a smorgasbord of energy dumps into the western CONUS that then translates eastward forming a closed low moving slowly over the Midwest. This would allow ample Gulf moisture to become entrained with EC and GFS deterministic models depicting PWATs over 1.4 to 1.5 inches, which according to SPC sounding climatology would be well above the 90th percentile and near climatological max for all DVN raobs for the dates of May 19/20th. This would be a beneficial rain for most, which based on the strength of forcing has the potential to match the PWAT and accumulate at least 1-2 inches for some between Monday and Tuesday, but with a slow moving system and lingering moist conveyor locally higher amounts would seem plausible. The severe weather potential remains low confidence given the anticipation of widespread rain and cloud cover. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated for much of the period. A brief period of LLWS is still forecast late tonight for CID and DBQ. Otherwise, another windy day is on tap for the terminals on Friday with gusts 30-40 kt at times from the southwest. There is a low chance (20 percent) for a shower or storm this afternoon, but confidence is too low for mention. Late Friday afternoon and evening, lower clouds with MVFR ceilings are expected to spread across at least the northern terminals (DBQ and CID) around low pressure over Minnesota. Confidence on these ceilings developing at MLI or BRL is too low for mention. Winds will veer to more westerly Friday evening and remain gusty at times. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...McClure