####018007872#### FXUS65 KCYS 160830 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 230 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures into this weekend with isolated thunderstorms returning on Saturday. - Active weather pattern late this weekend and possibly early next week as another Pacific storm system impacts the region. There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday across the eastern plains. - Drier weather with a slow warming trend for mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Pretty quiet early this morning across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with a few rain/snow showers across Carbon and Albany counties. Winds have briefly decreased and should stay that way until just after sunrise later this morning. Most areas should stay dry, but high res guidance does show some wrap around rainfall edging into the far northern Nebraska panhandle. Harrison and Chadron Nebraska might see some off/on rainfall this morning into early this afternoon. Otherwise, Friday looks to remain dry but windy across much of the forecast area as a shortwave ridge will move into southern Wyoming through the afternoon. Winds shouldn't be quite as strong as yesterday (Thursday), but west to northwest winds may gust as high as 40 to 45 mph. These winds are expected to diminish mid to late afternoon as 700mb winds lower through the day. Increasing midlevel subsidence associated with the shortwave ridge axis should suppress most convective initiation into the evening hours. Convective parameters suggest some fair weather CU development, but expect little or no shower activity through the evening hours. It should be slightly warmer today with 700mb temperatures increasing between 0C to 5C, which should translate to highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s across southeast Wyoming and upper 60s to low 70s for western Nebraska. It will remain windy, but winds should start to ease in the mid to late afternoon hours as the storm system across the Great plains lifts northeast into the Great Lakes Region. As we head into Saturday, models continue to show showers and thunderstorms returning to the region as the mid to upper level flow backs into the southwest bringing some warm air advection and better thermodynamic profiles. High temperatures will trend a bit higher Saturday afternoon as 700mb temperatures climb above 5c. Should see highs in the low to mid 70s across western Nebraska and maybe portions of far eastern Wyoming with low to mid 60s along and west of the I-25 corridor. Models continue to indicate a weak shortwave disturbance lifting northeast ahead of the next Pacific storm system moving into the Great Basin region late on Saturday. This disturbance will aid in initiating scattered rain showers and widely scattered thunderstorms across southeast Wyoming. Can't rule out a few stronger thunderstorms later on Saturday and Saturday evening as models show considerable moisture advection ahead of the next storm system as surface winds shift into the south and southeast. Brief gusty winds and frequent lightning look like the primary threats. This activity may linger past midnight late Saturday night across the Nebraska panhandle. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Primary forecast concern is in the medium range as the next Pacific storm system redevelops across the central High Plains on Sunday. Still tracking a potent Pacific disturbance which is forecast to move across the eastern Great Basin region and into the Front Range on Sunday. All models indicate a pretty dynamic system setting up across the area with ample frontogenesis and cyclogenesis across far southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska through Sunday night. Thermodynamic profiles do not look quite as good as they did yesterday with MLCAPE and SBCAPE values a little lower compared to yesterday, but 0-6km shear is still there. Can't rule out strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, but would like to see the surface low a bit further north. 00z models have trended further south with the center of this low with the warm sector barely clipping portions of western Nebraska. In addition, model soundings show low clouds and CIN lingering through most of the day with east to southeast surface winds. Surface winds do shift more into the east through the day leading to stronger veering wind profiles aloft as we head into the late afternoon hours. This set up bares watching as we head into the weekend as this pattern has done well in the past, but confidence is limited at this time. Otherwise, there is a good chance for some moderate to heavy precipitation rates as the first disturbance lifts northeast with very good forcing present. As we head into early next week, models are in much better agreement with the second portion of this storm system. Secondary disturbance, which will lag behind the first one on Sunday and dig south into the four corners region, is expected to slow down and force the first system to drift north or retrograde westward into Wyoming on Monday. The energy associated with the secondary disturbance will likely be absorbed by the primary storm system to our east. As a result, cool temperatures and a resurgence of rainfall is expected to start off the week. The main question is how much of the forecast area this will cover...and how cool will it get. Models have trended colder with 700mb temperatures as low as -5c into Tuesday. This is cold enough for snow down to around 7000 feet this time of the year. Increased POP with the second part of this system due to much better model agreement. Ensembles have also seem to come on board with this overall solution. Monday is forecast to be relatively chilly with highs struggling to reach into the 50s for most locations. Areas above 6000 feet may remain in the 40s through the day depending on cloud cover and precipitation rates. Based on the 00z ECMWF, rainfall may linger into Tuesday before the upper level low finally ejects eastward into the Great Plains. For mid to late next week, models show a gradual warming trend as a broad flat ridge axis shifts east into Colorado and Wyoming. Models now show drier conditions Wednesday and Thursday with a limited coverage of showers/thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures to return to the 70s by Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Pesky, unstable northwest flow aloft wrapping around low pressure in the Dakotas will enable isolated showers to persist over southeast Wyoming until around 09Z/Friday. Once these dissipate, conditions will generally be dry for the forecast period. All terminals to be VFR, although a lower cloud deck 040-060AGL should rotate south across KCDR and possibly KAIA Friday morning. As the low pressure begins to finally move east, these clouds will retreat around midday Friday. Wind remains the main aviation hazard through Friday evening, as the pressure gradient around the low hangs strong. West to northwest wind increases between 13Z-15Z leading to 22-38kt winds through most of Friday. The eastward progress of the low should allow for winds to begin tapering off around 22Z-23Z/Friday and drop substantially between 01Z-03Z/Saturday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...WFO RIW ####018008604#### FXUS61 KBGM 160831 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 431 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday. Cooler weather with a few lingering showers is expected on Sunday. Drier, mostly sunny but cool weather is then expected heading into early next week. Another low pressure system looks to bring additional rain chances by middle to latter portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 430 AM Update Main concerns in this period are the potential for isolated strong to severe t'storms with heavy downpours, gusty winds and hail today...and another round of isolated to scattered severe t'storms is expected on Saturday. Today features a level 1 out of 5 Marginal Risk for severe storms from SPC across just about the entire forecast area. There is also a level 1 out of 4 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and flash-flooding for the entire CWA today from WPC. SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for areas along and east of Syracuse--Ithaca--Towanda for Saturday. Patchy fog and stratus clouds are in place across portions of CNY/NE PA early this morning. An incoming line of convection is slowly approaching from Lake Erie/WNY/WPA early this morning as well. Latest CAMs have slowed down the timing of this line, with it now looking to reach Steuben county around 8-9 AM, I-81 by 9-11AM before it fizzles out east of Binghamton late this morning. Behind this initial morning line of showers and embedded t'storms there will be some breaks of sun...which will allow instability to quickly builds over the region. By early afternoon MLCAPE values of 800-1800 J/kg, along with LIs down to around -7 are expected. Deep layer shear begins to increase, between about 20-35 kts is expected in the 0-6km layer. Good directional shear and up to around 15kts of 0-1km shear are also expected; bringing SRH values around 100m2/s2 in the 0-1 layer...this combines with forecast LCLs around 600m to also bring an isolated tornado potential. The bigger threat from this storms today will likely be strong to possibly damaging wind gusts as DCAPE values rise to around 900-1000 J/Kg...which is a strong signal for downburst/microburst with some of the stronger storms that do develop. The main timing for severe storms looks to be from about 2-9 PM this afternoon and evening. Outside of the scattered storms it will be warm, humid and partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s expected. Dew points will be well into the 60s today, making it feel quite humid out there. Scattered showers and possibly even another round of thunderstorms will continue tonight as an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) is overhead producing mid level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5C/km. It is difficult to pin down the timing of any nocturnal convection as some of the CAMs showing it redeveloping in place over the region, while other CAMs show t'storms advecting in from the Ohio Valley overnight. Up to around 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE remains in place overnight due to the warm and humid air mass that will be situated across CNY and NE PA. Mild and humid night expected with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s for most locations. Saturday brings a stronger cold front into the area late in the day or evening as a large mid/upper level low moves across the Great Lakes and into souther Canada. It will remain warm, humid and unstable out ahead of this front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the forecast area...becoming widespread in the afternoon and early evening. CAPE values of between 500-1500 J/Kg are most likely to develop; although there remains substantial differences in some of the model guidance at this time. Deep layer shear is even stronger between 35-50 kts in the 0-6km layer, and this will help storms to become better organized. Temperatures will begin to fall late in the day and evening as the cold front moves through. Highs are expected to reach the mid-70s to lower 80s, with dew points falling and it becoming much less humid in the evening. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update... The frontal system that moves across the region during the daytime hours should be just about through by the late evening hours. Lingering showers and thunderstorms will remain possible until it exits the region. Then an upper low swings through the region late Saturday night and during the daytime on Sunday. This system will bring the next round of showers to the region. There will be no instability present, so thunderstorms are not expected. A cooler airmass will also drop in with this system resulting in a cool and rainy end to the weekend. Winds will be breezy Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens up around a surface low that will be just north of the region. As this system moves east of the region Sunday night, northwest flow will continue to advect cool air southward as showers continue. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and mid 50s Saturday night. Then temps will struggle to rebound much as highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Portions of the Wyoming Valley be close to 70 as skies are expected to clear some across the far southern portions of the region. Lows on Sunday will be in the 40s for most of the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 345 AM Update... Dry but cool conditions are in store for early next week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be below normal throughout the long term period. Winds will remain breezy Monday as the aforementioned system continues to move through. This will result in blustery conditions, at least for this time of year, during the morning hours. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday morning as temperatures plummet under mostly clear skies and calming winds. Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday and likely into part of Tuesday night as guidance has slowed down the arrival of the next system. Another upper low will move into the Great Lakes region midweek as a surface low develops along the coast. This system will bring widespread rain to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with rain then continuing Thursday. Coverage on Thursday may not completely cover the area depending on the location of the surface low by then. There is some spread between guidance on where the lows set up and how quickly they move through, so similarly to previous updates, NBM guidance continues to be favored for this time period. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 150 AM Update Mainly VFR conditions expected through daybreak at our taf sites. There is valley and patchy fog forming early this morning, along with an area of MVFR stratus clouds over the Catskills and Poconos. High clouds are starting to overspread the area from western NY at this time, and the thinking is that these will prevent thick fog from developing in the Chemung river valley. ELM did see some brief LIFR fog, but it dissipated. Kept a mention of MVFR fog in the taf here through daybreak or 10-11z. A weakening line of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms is forecast to push into our western terminals between about 12-14z this morning, reaching BGM--ITH-SYR by 13-15z and finally AVP by 14-16z. There is uncertainty in just how strong this line of showers and potential t'storms will be as it moves through. For this updated added in tempo groups at all taf sites except RME, for MVFR vsbys, CIGs with moderate to locally heavy rain...best chance to see TSRA will be at ELM with this morning's activity. PROB30 groups for additional scattered thunderstorms were added for all taf sites between about 18-23z but confidence is currently low for exact timing at any one terminal. Outlook... Tonight through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL/ES AVIATION...KL/MJM ####018006695#### FXUS62 KMLB 160832 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 432 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 - Increasingly hot conditions forecast for East Central Florida this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s and near record high temperatures. - Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-105 this weekend into early next week. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. - Very low rain chances (10% or less) through next Wednesday. Drought conditions may worsen/expand as a result. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Today...A mid-level ridge (591-592dm) over the Gulf will nose NE across the FL peninsula and result in rising heights and increased subsidence. In the low levels, Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across south central FL, promoting a light offshore wind flow to start the day, turning onshore behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Overall dry, subsident airmass will limit even fair weather cumulus from developing though there will be cirrus/cirrostratus streaming SE. These high clouds will be pretty thin so they should not affect max temps much. Widespread max temps in the mid 90s across interior sections as well as inland portions of the coastal counties. Even coastal Volusia will reach the mid 90s before a delayed sea breeze develops. This will put Daytona Beach in a good position to equal (or even exceed) its record high of 94F (see below). Heat indices will also be on the climb with peak afternoon values in the upper 90s/near 100. Sat-Wed...The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with potential for one or more record highs to be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach may again approach their record high on Sat (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 100 to 105 each day inland from the coast. Widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and heat indices are not unusual for our summertime, they are well above normal for mid May and folks are not at all acclimated to it. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Thu...A weak cool front is forecast to bring the next small chance (20-30%) for measurable rainfall on Thu. If timing becomes faster, may need to move these low rain chances to Wed but did not want to show 2 days of rain chances per NBM. Both GFS and ECMWF show a return to onshore flow late next week behind this front which would bring max temps down to more seasonable mid to upper 80s even if not much rainfall materializes. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing 10-14 knots near the coast behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore through Sat then 1-2 FT all waters Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation continue to be very low during this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some models continue to indicate the potential for patchy fog to form, mainly NW of I-4, from 09-13Z. However, confidence remains too low to mention in TAF. Light and variable winds will become W/SW around 5-8 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze will once again form in the afternoon, backing the winds E/SE along the coast and increasing to 10-14 KT(KMLB southward will shift earlier as the sea breeze forms and moves inland quicker across the south). Winds will then become light and variable once again by 00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Soils will continue to dry out next several days with no rain in the forecast and temperatures reaching the low and mid 90s daily. In addition, relatively dry air will produce min RH values of 30-35 percent over the interior today and Saturday but winds will be light (10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon behind the sea breeze, although its inland penetration will be slow and onset delayed especially north of the Cape. Min RH values close to the coast south of the Cape will hold near 50 percent. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Record highs the next 4 days (Fri-Mon): DAB 16-May 94 1994 LEE 16-May 95 1985 SFB 16-May 97 1967 MCO 16-May 99 1922 MLB 16-May 95 1995 VRB 16-May 95 1995 FPR 16-May 94 2022 DAB 17-May 95 1963 LEE 17-May 96 1991 SFB 17-May 96 2001 MCO 17-May 97 1915 MLB 17-May 97 1963 VRB 17-May 95 2023 FPR 17-May 95 2008 DAB 18-May 97 1995 LEE 18-May 98 1996 SFB 18-May 95 2024 MCO 18-May 97 1930 MLB 18-May 96 1995 VRB 18-May 96 2024 FPR 18-May 98 1995 DAB 19-May 94 1995 LEE 19-May 94 1991 SFB 19-May 97 1960 MCO 19-May 98 1908 MLB 19-May 95 1995 VRB 19-May 95 1995 FPR 19-May 97 1995 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 96 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 91 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 91 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 94 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 96 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Watson ####018007300#### FXUS63 KABR 160833 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 333 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - West to northwest winds will potentially gust to 55 to 65 mph across western South Dakota today, while central and northeastern South Dakota experience west to northwest winds potentially gusting to 45 to 55 mph. - The probability of low temperatures falling to 36F degrees or colder Saturday night is 60 to 90 percent in areas along and north of the US Highway 212 corridor. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area Sunday through Tuesday. The probably of seeing 0.75 inches of rain over a 24 hour period, ending at 7 am Tuesday, is 40 to 70 percent. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 At 3am CDT, skies are cloudy, and showers, rotating around the upper low centered near the Dakotas/MN tri-state border region, cover portions of north central and northeast South Dakota. With a 982hpa surface low analyzed over Richland Co, ND, west winds have been consistently running 25 to 40 mph sustained, with gusts ranging from roughly 45 to 65 mph. High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory headlines continue. Starting with winds today, model guidance definitely supports down- turn in the strength of winds and wind gusts today across northeast South Dakota. Will allow the High Wind Warning in place for the Prairie Coteau and a couple of tiers of counties east of the Missouri River valley to expire at 7am CDT this morning. Further west, though, guidance suggests those gusts to 58mph or higher are still possible for, at least, the first half of the today period (guidance is really pinging the west-river half of South Dakota with a high-wind warning type of signal for low level/boundary layer winds). CWA-wide, though, wind advisory strength wind potential will persist pretty much all day, with a down-turn in wind/gusts overnight tonight. The upper low and surface low will move away from the region today into tonight, affording some mid/upper level ridging to begin building over the CWA heading into Saturday. At the surface, the pressure gradient begins to relax from west to east, most noticeably out over the Missouri River valley (west river) forecast zones heading into sunshine hours on Saturday. This pesky/persistent low stratus cloud layer is progged to stick around today and tonight before potentially beginning to break up strato-cu out on Saturday. The western edge of the stratus is progged to be moving into or nearing the western edge of the CWA between ~4am CDT and ~7am CDT Saturday, when winds could be diminishing below 10mph. So, there is a little bit of frost potential spilling over into (for the time being) portions of Corson/Dewey counties for a few hours early Saturday morning. A colder than normal airmass in place now, makes that potential for frost early Saturday morning. In fact, temperatures (based off model low level thermal progs) today through Saturday will be well below normal (20 to 25 degrees below normal) for both daytime and night-time temperatures. Low level CAA does continue across northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota today and tonight, but wind and clouds should help keep temperatures in check. TROWAL-forced showers of rain are in full swing, per low to mid- level thermal advection progs and water vapor satellite imagery early this morning. This set-up should continue to produce numerous to widespread coverage of showers, during the first half of today, that wraps from north to south and west to east around the back and bottom sides of this upper circulation. By the end of the day, though, areal coverage should be diminishing to isolated pockets of rain shower activity for a few hours this evening before either completely ending or moving out of this CWA. That should leave the rest of tonight into Saturday dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Lets start off with frost potential Sunday morning. Aloft we have a ridge axis overhead, with a shortwave over the 4-Corners region lifting northeast. Mid level warm advection ahead of the shortwave will result in cloud cover above 8kft coming in from the southwest, though NAM BUFKIT doesn't really get going till after 09Z. Thus, radiational conditions will not be inhibited by clouds for most of the area much of the night. At the surface, a ridge extends down out of Canada along the Red River valley into western Minnesota. Thus, low level flow is light and easterly. NBM deterministic low temperatures right now are right about the freezing mark from Bowdle to Groton and north of Redfield, with a broader region encompassing most of the northeast part of the state of a 50 to 90% probability of falling below 36F. With the approaching wave, focus shifts to precipitation chances. Even by 12Z, NAM BUFKIT for Pierre still has a deep dry subcloud layer below 8kft, although the GFS is a bit more aggressive with scouring out the dry air. The surface low associated with the shortwave really doesn't get going until late Sunday, and through the day we're stuck with mainly low POPs across western/central SD under broadly diffluent flow. NBM moisture probabilities through the end of Sunday are about 50/50 for the Pierre area at 0.25 inches, about the same for Miller and Mobridge for 0.1 inches, with probables dropping precipitously from there northeast. Monday is where most of the moisture is at, as the low lifts into Nebraska and weakens into an inverted trough and the upper wave lifts northeast and then weakens. An upper low then develops over the eastern CONUS, with more zonal flow across the western CONUS. The pattern that is responsible for drawing down this cooler near surface airmass, and ample/widespread precipitation weakens and we see closer to climatological temperatures and lower probables for moisture. Also, not seeing any days of concern from the AI/machine learning severe weather algorithms in the upcoming mid/late week timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR to IFR ceilings and strong winds gusting 40-50kt will continue through the overnight hours before slowly diminishing through the day, with gusts weakening to 25-35kts Friday evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-015-033-045. High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for SDZ004-005- 007>011-016-017-020>023-034>037-048-051. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ004-005-007>011-016-017-020>023-034>037-048-051. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ006-018-019. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...10 ####018007445#### FXUS61 KALY 160835 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 435 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern is in store to end this week with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow. Thunderstorms could become strong to severe (15-29%) with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts, but all severe weather hazards could occur with severe storms Saturday. Lingering showers for Sunday then drier conditions in store through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Patchy morning fog continues across portions of eastern New York and western New England through this morning when daylight increases helping diminish the fog. While traveling use extra caution as fog can quickly reduce visibility, which has been observed to be as low as a mile this morning. Beginning this afternoon, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms begin to develop. A few of these storms could become strong to severe for locations south of I-90 as latest high resolution model guidances supports strong to damaging winds and up to one inch size hail. Where storms become strong to severe will greatly depend on how much clear skies and locations see for the environment to become favorable for severe storms. This is primarily why locations north of I-90 will predominately see moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening with non-severe thunderstorms. While a rogue storm can't be ruled out, forecast confidence is higher for locations south of I-90. Rain showers and thunderstorms should quickly move through this afternoon and early evening with a few lingering showers in western New England through the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and early evening with chances for all severe weather hazards (Winds stronger than 58 mph, hail greater 1 inch, and isolated flash flooding) Timing: Between 9 AM and 8 PM Saturday Forecast Confidence: Moderate (40-60%) for timing, impacts, and locations to see severe thunderstorms. Discussion: Latest high resolution model guidance continues to support strong to severe thunderstorms to move from west to east across eastern New York and western New England beginning mid to late Saturday morning for locations north of I-90 and in the early afternoon hours Saturday everywhere else. The current nature of storms is widely scattered, but latest forecast trends are hinting as multiple lines of storms potentially developing to move west to east. Taking a deeper dive into environmental conditions, we look at energy needed at and above the surface to initiate thunderstorms which will be plenty available Saturday. Dew point temperatures in the 60s and with cooler temperatures above the surface, this will help contribute to one of the primary hazards for Saturday being damaging wind gusts greater than 58 mph. Hail size up to 1 inch also can't be ruled out Saturday with severe thunderstorms. As with any developed thunderstorm, isolated locations of flash flooding could occur due to heavy rainfall especially in low-lying, poor drainage locations. It's important to be weather aware and prepared for severe thunderstorms Saturday such as having multiple ways to receive warnings, securing loose outdoor items, having an action plan to move indoors if you are outdoors when you hear thunder, and clearing drainage locations from debris (such as leaves). Thunderstorms should be east of western New England during the early evening hours as a strong cold front moves through with a few lingering rain showers overnight into Sunday afternoon. Temperatures finally become cooler into the 40s and 50s with highs on Sunday in the 50s and 60s. A low pressure system that brought the associated cold front continues to move north and east across the Northeast Sunday bring breezy and cooler conditions in store for Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure continues to depart farther to the north and east away from the region early next week as high pressure noses in from the Great Lakes. This will result in a period of drier weather. An increased pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming high will result in a northwesterly breeze both days. A few gusts could exceed 30 mph on Monday. High temperatures will start out below normal with highs in the 50s and 60s. Another period of unsettled weather likely returns for the mid to late week period as separate northern and southern stream upper shortwaves/closed lows attempt to phase together within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. A low pressure system will initially track from the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes, later developing a secondary surface low near the mid-Atlantic coast which then tracks northeastward through the end of the week. The result will be increasing probabilities for periods of rainfall. The overall interaction between these shortwaves remain uncertain and would impact the overall track of this system and when and how much precipitation occurs. Precipitation probabilities are in the 35 to 50 percent range on Wednesday increasing to 55 to 70 percent by Thursday. High temperatures both days continue to run below normal, in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06z/Sat...A mix of low stratus and fog is likely for all TAF sites overnight into early Friday morning with flight categories fluctuating between MVFR and IFR with some brief LIFR possible as well. Cigs will gradually improve back to VFR later Friday morning and continue into the afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will likely develop Friday afternoon into the early evening. A PROB30 group was maintained for all TAF sites, though KPOU may be less likely for this activity due to being influenced by a decaying overnight MCS Friday morning and many CAMs keep afternoon activity to the north, so only including VCSH. Skies quickly trend clear Friday evening in the wake of these showers. Some low stratus and/or fog may redevelop prior to 06z/Sat but will hold off on any inclusion in the TAFs at this time. A light south or calm wind overnight will become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt on Friday. Wind will become light out of the south or calm again Friday night. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Webb NEAR TERM...Webb SHORT TERM...Webb LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Rathbun