####018003634#### FXUS65 KREV 160836 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 136 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * For today, near average temperatures, light breezes, and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorm in the eastern Sierra. * A weekend storm will impact the Sierra and western Nevada bringing an increased likelihood of cooler conditions, gusty winds, rain and mountain snow showers. * Warmer and drier conditions return next week for the 7-10 day outlook. && .DISCUSSION... * As of this writing, light showers continue in Lassen, Plumas, and northern Washoe counties. Per surface observations, precipitation amounts are light, generally between a trace to 0.05". These light showers will quickly move southeast this morning, with minimal amounts. * A quiet day with normal temperatures. Typical westerly breezy winds in the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph. There remains a 10-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the eastern Sierra from southern Lassen County to Mono County. * System arrives late today into Saturday. For latest changes to the forecast, the system is bit faster. Precipitation chances have trended a bit lower (20-40%) for Mono County, the immediate Reno-Carson City-Minden area, and southern Lyon and Mineral counties. But, the best wetting rain (>0.10") chances still stretch from far NE CA and much of western NV with a 50-80% chance for precipitation. Snowfall totals have also trended down since prior guidance (again faster system), with amounts of up to an inch. Snow levels start off high on Saturday, generally between 7,000'-8,000'. Snow levels then decrease to around 5,000'-5,500' by Sunday morning. * Strong winds are still a good bet this weekend. West winds on Saturday will switch to more of a northerly direction on Sunday. Ensemble solutions are still showing a signal for anomalously strong winds on Saturday. This is especially the case south of Highway 50, along US-395 in Alpine and Mono counties, and Highway 95 in Mineral County. As for the dynamics producing the strong winds this weekend, winds on Saturday appear to be driven more by upper level strong winds. Also, NamNest/GFS modeled soundings from KMMH are also hinting at an inversion above mountain-top level, which would help increase surface gusts. Winds on Sunday are surface gradient driven with some upper level support. Widespread wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be likely with wind gusts exceeding 50+ mph for wind prone areas. * Long-term ensemble solutions continue to highlight the return of a ridge pattern across the western US. Temperatures will increase back above average with dry weather for at least the next 7-days. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * 10-25% chance for thunderstorms in the eastern Sierra from around 21z to 03z, mostly impacting KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. Winds will be light and mainly from the west today, with gusts up to 20 kts at all area terminals in the afternoon. * Areas of IFR in patchy FZFG are possible at KTRK overnight thru 16z Friday morning. * Another storm is on the horizon for the weekend with more winds, valley rain and mountain snow. There is an increased trend for LLWS and mountain turbulence concerns starting early Saturday morning continuing into Monday morning. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ ####018003577#### FXUS64 KLIX 160838 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper level high will reside over the central Gulf through the short term period. This will continue to promote an above average temperature regime across the region. At the surface, high pressure will be in control centered over the eastern Gulf allowing for a more moderate low level flow across the region. This flow will continue to pump ample low level moisture across the region. However, with plenty of dry air just off the deck with an a strong EML observed from the recent 00z LIX sounding, a dry forecast should prevail. During the overnight, low stratus will continue to develop under the strong H85 inversion layer. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A mostly zonal flow transitioning into a more active southwesterly flow is expected through the second half of the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. This will continue to promote generally an above average temperature pattern with a 593dam H5 ridge remaining locked over the Gulf. A broader scale trough will move eastward through the plains and eventually into the Cornbelt southward to the Ozarks. This will send a front and parent upper level shortwave through our region midweek. Globals are in relatively good agreement in terms of timing and strength of the system and this will be our next chance of rainfall across the region with the best QPF signal residing along and north of the I10/12 corridor. Behind the front, CAA develops and temperatures drop from the 80s/90s respectively to the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s across the cooler interior locations to round out the long term period. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Cooling overnight temperatures and associated temperature inversion are bringing a low stratus deck into the area. Beginning about 06Z, ceilings will be in the MVFR range from 1000 to 2000 feet. These conditions will last through 14 to 15Z before the clouds begin to lift out and conditions improve to VFR. There is also a likelihood of light fog at MCB and HUM, but visibilities will remain greater than 4SM so impacts are expected to be negligible. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Cautionary headlines are ongoing for the western waters south of Terrebonne Bay. Winds going into the weekend will slightly weaken as pressure gradient relaxes just a skosh. That said, moderate southerly flow will continue through the weekend and into early next week with moderate seas also continuing. A cold front will approach the region by midweek, which should transition winds to a more northwesterly direction. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 72 91 71 / 0 0 10 10 BTR 92 75 93 74 / 0 0 10 0 ASD 90 73 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 90 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 74 86 73 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 87 72 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...DS MARINE...RDF