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MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-281200-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern Grand Forks ND
415 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025
...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
This outlook covers the Red River of the North
and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks use 70 years (1949-2019) of
past weather, temperature, and precipitation for the ensemble
predictive hydrographs used in calculating the probabilities of
exceeding a river level for the valid period of the outlook.
Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
North Dakota provides Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:
- Near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...
- Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that are issued
prior to the spring snowmelt season beginning in mid-to-late
February.
The following message has three river data sections:
- The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
chances of river locations reaching their minor, moderate,
and major flood categories.
- The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
locations rising above the river stages listed.
- The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
locations falling below the river flows listed.
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood
stages are listed for the valid time period.
- CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
- HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical, or normal, conditions.
- When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is
lower than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding...
Valid Period: 07/28/2025 - 10/26/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
Red River of the North.....
Wahpeton 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 26 19 10 5 <5 <5
Hickson 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Fargo 18.0 25.0 30.0 : 46 30 9 6 <5 <5
Halstad 26.0 32.0 37.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Grand Forks 28.0 40.0 46.0 : 13 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
Oslo 26.0 30.0 36.0 : 15 15 10 10 <5 <5
Drayton 32.0 38.0 42.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Pembina 39.0 44.0 49.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
Minnesota Tributaries.....
Sabin 13.0 15.0 19.0 : 26 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hawley 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dilworth 13.0 20.0 26.0 : 32 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
Twin Valley 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hendrum 20.0 28.0 32.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
Shelly 14.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Climax 20.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
High Landing 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Crookston 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 15 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Above Warren 67.0 71.0 75.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Alvarado 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hallock 802.0 806.0 810.0 : 10 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
Roseau 16.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---
North Dakota Tributaries.....
Abercrombie 20.0 22.0 28.0 : 10 7 6 <5 <5 <5
Valley City 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lisbon 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Kindred 16.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
West Fargo Dvsn 18.0 20.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Harwood 84.0 86.0 91.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Enderlin 9.5 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mapleton 18.0 21.0 23.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hillsboro 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Minto 6.0 8.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Walhalla 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Neche 18.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND:
CS = Conditional Simulation (current outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
ft = Feet
In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the
valid time period at the locations listed.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 07/28/2025 - 10/26/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
Wahpeton 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.4 11.1 13.0 14.0
Hickson 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.4 20.9 26.8 30.9
Fargo 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 19.8 22.2 27.3
Halstad 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.0 15.3 19.6 24.5
Grand Forks 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.8 22.6 29.9 36.3
Oslo 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 20.6 29.8 33.9
Drayton 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 20.2 26.7 35.0
Pembina 21.5 21.5 21.6 22.4 26.4 33.9 40.6
Minnesota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
Sabin 7.3 7.4 8.2 10.8 13.0 14.0 14.4
Buffalo River.....
Hawley 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.8 5.9 6.6 8.1
Dilworth 5.6 5.6 6.2 8.9 14.0 17.5 18.4
Wild Rice River.....
Twin Valley 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 5.2 6.1 7.9
Hendrum 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.1 15.4 17.9 24.5
Marsh River.....
Shelly 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.7 8.4 11.0 11.7
Sand Hill River.....
Climax 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 10.3 13.2 15.8
Red Lake River.....
High Landing 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.5 5.5 8.8 9.8
Crookston 6.9 6.9 6.9 8.2 11.9 16.2 17.8
Snake River.....
Above Warren 61.2 61.2 61.4 62.0 63.1 64.2 66.3
Alvarado 96.2 96.2 96.6 97.6 100.4 103.3 106.4
Two Rivers River.....
Hallock 793.4 793.9 795.2 797.2 799.4 801.9 804.3
Roseau River.....
Roseau 5.2 5.3 5.8 6.7 8.5 10.1 14.1
North Dakota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
Abercrombie 11.2 11.2 11.2 12.3 16.4 19.9 23.0
Sheyenne River.....
Valley City 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 7.6 9.6 12.2
Lisbon 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 6.8 9.7 11.9
Kindred 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.8 12.1 13.9
West Fargo Dvsn 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 12.9 14.1
Harwood 72.6 72.6 72.6 72.8 75.0 77.7 80.0
Maple River.....
Enderlin 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 5.8 8.2 9.0
Mapleton 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 12.4 16.3 18.1
Goose River.....
Hillsboro 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.0 6.6 9.8
Forest River.....
Minto 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.8 3.2
Pembina River.....
Walhalla 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.6 3.9 4.8 7.1
Neche 2.9 2.9 2.9 4.2 6.8 8.2 13.2
In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed flow levels (kcfs) for
the valid time period at the locations listed.
...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Flow (kcfs) at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 07/28/2025 - 10/26/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
Wahpeton 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
Hickson 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
Fargo 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Halstad 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
Grand Forks 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9
Oslo 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9
Drayton 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0
Pembina 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0
Minnesota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
Sabin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo River.....
Hawley 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dilworth 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wild Rice River.....
Twin Valley 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Hendrum 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Marsh River.....
Shelly 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sand Hill River.....
Climax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Red Lake River.....
High Landing 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Crookston 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Snake River.....
Above Warren 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alvarado 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Two Rivers River.....
Hallock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Roseau River.....
Roseau 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Dakota Tribs: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
Abercrombie 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sheyenne River.....
Valley City 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Lisbon 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Kindred 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
West Fargo Dvsn 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Harwood 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Maple River.....
Enderlin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mapleton 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Goose River.....
Hillsboro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Forest River.....
Minto 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pembina River.....
Walhalla 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Neche 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
This long-range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
river levels taken from the forecast hydrograph results of the NWS
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model is run for
multiple scenarios starting at current river, snow, and soil
conditions using 70 years of past precipitation and temperatures
that were experienced for those past years during the timeframe of
the outlook period. The crests are then ranked from lowest to
highest and assigned an exceedance probability.
A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" can
be found at:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4
These probabilities can be used for risk management as an indication
of the range of crests that may be possible during the valid period
of the outlook. However, note that it is possible that river levels
may still reach levels below the 95th percentile, or above the 5th
percentile, values.
.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
Exceedance information is also presented as graphs of the
probability of stage exceedance for the full period and for weekly
intervals throughout the period. These graphs, together with
explanations that help in interpreting them, can be found on the
NWS Grand Forks NWPS web page by clicking on "Rivers and Lakes"
above the map at www.weather.gov/fgf.
Current river levels across the Red River of the North and
Devils/Stump Lake basins are available on our web site.
Additionally, 7-day deterministic forecasts are issued at least
once a day when river forecast locations are expected to reach or
exceed their designated action stage throughout that period.
Refer to the separate Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook for Devils
and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and/or
low-water non-exceedance levels.
If you have any questions, please contact NWS Grand Forks at
701-772-0720.
You can follow us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
and on X at @NWSGrandForks.
$$
www.weather.gov/fgf
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