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FGUS74 KSHV 171813

ESFSHV



Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

113 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025



...National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) Long Range

Probabilistic Outlook for the Neches River Basin of East Texas...



In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during

the next 90 days. For example, for the Mud Creek near Jacksonville

Texas, the flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the

Mud Creek will rise above 8.2 feet during the next 90 days.



        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations

         valid for April 17, 2025 to July 15, 2025



     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

Mud Creek

 Jacksonville 7E    9  3.0  4.2  7.2  7.6  8.2  8.5  9.4  10.3 11.5

East Fork Angelina River

 Cushing 4N        15  10.0 10.8 11.5 12.8 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.9

Angelina River

 Alto 8E           29  18.2 18.2 21.9 25.4 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.9

Attoyac Bayou

 Chireno 3E        14  9.1  9.1  9.2  11.9 13.2 14.8 18.0 18.9 19.8

Ayish Bayou

 San Augustine 10S 12  6.5  10.4 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 13.2 13.8 14.5

Neches River

 Neches 4NE        12  12.2 12.2 12.2 13.1 14.2 15.0 15.1 16.3 17.9

 Alto 8SW          16  15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.6

 Diboll 4S         12  11.6 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.7 13.9 14.2 15.5

 Rockland          26  8.6  9.1  11.9 13.0 14.3 16.7 18.2 20.6 26.8



Location      90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%

------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

Lk Palestine 345.5 345.5 345.5 345.6 345.9 346.2 346.6 347.2 348.4



This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities

computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical

climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also

account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions.

By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the

level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be

determined.



Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the

internet at this URL: https://water.weather.gov/wfo/shv (internet

address URL is all lower case).



Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third

Thursday of every month.



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