####018016764#### FGUS73 KFSD 131631 ESFFSD IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-MNC033-063-081-083- 101-105-117-133-NEC043-051-SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043- 053-061-067-073-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-151645- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1131 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 ...Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlook... This spring flood and water resource outlook is for the Sioux Falls Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), which covers portions of central and southeastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, northwestern Iowa and far northeast Nebraska. The main river basins include the Missouri, James, Big Sioux, Vermillion, Redwood, West Fork of the Des Moines, Little Sioux, Rock, Floyd Rivers. .Flood Outlook Summary... A current lack of existing snow cover, dry antecedent soils, and diminishing river ice all point toward a below normal river flood risk through the spring months. While the river flood risk is below normal, it is not zero. Future risks into early summer would likely be driven by heavy rain events. For context, 5 of the last 6 significant river flood events in the local area have been caused by heavy rain rather than spring snow melt. .Temperature and Precipitation... Precipitation over the past 90 days has generally been below normal over much of the region with even larger precipitation deficits exist when looking across the entire water year. Many locations since Oct 1st are at least 1 to 2 inches below normal in terms of precipitation. Temperatures over the past 90 days have trended on the cool side of normal. A significant early spring storm system will bring widespread precipitation to the region March 14-15th. At this time, this precipitation is not expected to result in river flooding or result in any significant change to the overall spring river flood outlook. Some within-bank rises, especially on smaller creeks and stream, are expected as is ponding of water where subsurface frost remains. Medium range outlooks into late March tend to favor above normal temperatures with no clear signal in precipitation. .Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content... Recent warmth has melted the snowpack across the broader region with all immediate drainage basins now snow-free. Mountain snowpack and associated Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) above Fort Peck on the Missouri River is roughly 87% of average according to the USACE. Similarly, mountain SWE in the Fort Peck to Garrison reach is roughly 90% of average. .Soil Conditions and Frost Depth... A couple of rain events in November and December that largely fell on unfrozen ground allowed for some beneficial moisture to be trapped in the soils. With this said, soil moisture deficits were already in place with soil moisture anomalies still reflecting drier than normal soils. While many locations east of the Missouri River are still reporting frost, some thawing of the top layer has occurred and the remaining frost is likely now 'primed' for removal. .River and Lake Conditions... Entering the winter freeze-up months, river levels and streamflow were generally running near normal or locally below normal in most locations. River ice has largely been eroded or is rotting in place with a diminishing risk of any ice jam related flooding going forward. .Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/15/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Floyd River Sheldon 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 39 <5 23 <5 <5 Alton 12.0 16.0 22.0 : <5 39 <5 20 <5 <5 Le Mars 20.0 21.0 26.0 : <5 20 <5 12 <5 <5 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 14.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Floyd River Merrill 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 10 <5 8 <5 7 James 26.0 30.0 34.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Sioux River Milford 13.0 16.0 20.0 : 12 78 <5 55 <5 6 Spencer 10.0 14.0 16.0 : 15 70 <5 8 <5 <5 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 8.0 9.5 10.5 : <5 46 <5 13 <5 6 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 16.5 20.0 22.5 : <5 50 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cherokee 17.0 21.0 24.0 : <5 53 <5 6 <5 <5 Correctionville 19.0 21.0 23.0 : <5 10 <5 7 <5 <5 :West Fork Ditch :Perry Creek Sioux City 24.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big Sioux River Brookings 9.0 10.5 15.0 : 7 52 <5 34 <5 <5 Dell Rapids 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 5 43 <5 18 <5 16 Sioux Falls I-90 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 43 <5 17 <5 8 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 43 <5 17 <5 8 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 16.0 18.0 31.0 : <5 22 <5 18 <5 <5 :Split Rock Creek Corson 8.5 11.0 14.0 : <5 16 <5 10 <5 <5 :Rock River Luverne 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 15 <5 10 <5 <5 Rock Rapids 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 5 36 <5 20 <5 9 Rock Valley 16.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 17 <5 12 <5 <5 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 20.5 24.0 30.0 : 14 59 <5 31 <5 8 Akron 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 15 58 <5 30 <5 17 Sioux City 32.0 38.0 41.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :James River Huron 11.5 15.0 19.0 : 14 55 8 45 5 30 Forestburg 12.0 14.5 18.0 : 20 59 12 46 5 29 Mitchell 17.0 21.5 24.0 : 24 59 9 39 5 28 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 8.0 13.0 15.0 : 14 41 7 23 5 20 :James River Scotland 13.0 16.0 18.0 : 14 54 9 39 6 32 Yankton 12.0 16.0 21.0 : 9 41 7 37 <5 27 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 12 <5 10 <5 <5 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 6 48 <5 40 <5 25 :Vermillion River Davis 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 11 53 7 41 <5 16 Wakonda 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 12 53 11 46 7 40 Vermillion 21.0 22.0 30.0 : 6 36 5 26 <5 <5 :Redwood River Marshall 14.0 17.0 18.5 : 5 14 <5 7 <5 <5 :West Fork Des Moines River Avoca 1425.0 1426.0 1428.0 : <5 13 <5 10 <5 <5 Windom 19.0 21.0 25.0 : <5 11 <5 7 <5 <5 Jackson 12.0 12.5 14.0 : <5 10 <5 7 <5 <5 :Missouri River South Sioux City 30.0 33.0 36.0 : <5 10 <5 8 <5 6 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/15/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Floyd River Sheldon 6.0 6.2 6.4 7.0 9.0 10.1 11.0 Alton 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.6 8.7 10.0 11.3 Le Mars 10.6 10.7 12.3 13.7 15.1 15.9 18.9 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.9 7.1 8.3 9.8 :Floyd River Merrill 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.4 3.8 4.5 7.6 James 8.9 9.1 9.7 10.5 11.6 12.2 15.4 :Little Sioux River Milford 7.4 7.7 8.4 10.1 11.4 13.2 13.8 Spencer 5.2 5.6 6.6 8.0 9.1 10.3 10.8 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 2.9 3.0 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.2 6.4 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 6.0 6.2 7.1 8.0 9.6 11.9 12.5 Cherokee 8.6 8.7 9.8 11.0 12.8 13.6 14.9 Correctionville 5.5 5.7 6.6 7.8 9.8 10.5 13.9 :West Fork Ditch :Perry Creek Sioux City 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.7 :Big Sioux River Brookings 2.5 2.7 3.4 5.3 6.8 8.3 9.5 Dell Rapids 3.5 4.3 4.8 6.4 7.8 9.9 11.8 Sioux Falls I-90 4.3 5.6 6.2 8.1 9.6 10.8 11.7 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 4.3 5.6 6.2 8.1 9.6 10.8 11.7 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 6.5 6.9 7.2 8.3 10.1 12.9 13.9 :Split Rock Creek Corson 2.1 2.2 2.5 3.5 4.6 6.9 7.3 :Rock River Luverne 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.8 5.3 7.4 8.1 Rock Rapids 7.4 7.6 8.3 9.4 10.2 12.3 13.0 Rock Valley 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.5 8.9 11.4 11.9 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 12.9 13.1 14.1 15.5 18.7 20.7 22.3 Akron 6.0 6.4 8.1 10.4 14.6 16.2 17.0 Sioux City 9.3 9.6 10.5 12.3 15.2 17.7 18.9 :James River Huron 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.2 13.3 19.0 Forestburg 4.9 4.9 5.1 6.6 9.6 15.4 18.1 Mitchell 10.7 10.8 11.3 12.7 16.4 20.6 23.9 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 2.1 2.1 2.7 4.1 5.8 10.0 14.5 :James River Scotland 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.7 10.1 14.9 18.6 Yankton 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.7 5.2 10.2 19.9 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 1.0 1.0 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.1 5.3 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 3.2 3.2 3.4 4.8 7.3 9.9 12.6 :Vermillion River Davis 2.3 2.3 2.6 4.3 8.6 11.1 13.6 Wakonda 2.0 2.0 4.1 7.0 9.1 16.1 17.3 Vermillion 2.0 2.0 2.6 5.5 8.1 15.0 21.6 :Redwood River Marshall 7.7 7.7 8.4 9.0 10.2 11.7 14.0 :West Fork Des Moines River Avoca 1419.1 1419.3 1419.5 1420.0 1420.5 1421.9 1423.5 Windom 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.4 13.7 16.0 17.5 Jackson 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.9 9.6 10.4 11.0 :Missouri River South Sioux City 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.9 15.5 19.8 25.0 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/15/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Floyd River Sheldon 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 Alton 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Le Mars 9.4 9.3 8.8 7.9 7.4 7.0 7.0 :West Branch Floyd River Struble 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 :Floyd River Merrill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 James 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 :Little Sioux River Milford 6.5 6.5 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 Spencer 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 :Ocheyedan River Spencer 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 :Little Sioux River Linn Grove 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 Cherokee 7.8 7.6 7.3 6.0 5.7 5.1 4.9 Correctionville 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 :West Fork Ditch :Perry Creek Sioux City 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.0 5.0 :Big Sioux River Brookings 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 Dell Rapids 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Sioux Falls I-90 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Skunk Creek Sioux Falls 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Big Sioux River Sioux Falls N Cliff 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 :Split Rock Creek Corson 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 :Rock River Luverne 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Rock Rapids 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Rock Valley 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 :Big Sioux River Hawarden 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.2 Akron 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 Sioux City 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 :James River Huron 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 Forestburg 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 Mitchell 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.9 :Firesteel Creek Mount Vernon 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 :James River Scotland 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 Yankton 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 :West Fork Vermillion River Parker 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 :East Fork Vermillion River Parker 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Vermillion River Davis 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 Wakonda 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Vermillion 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Redwood River Marshall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :West Fork Des Moines River Avoca 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Windom 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Jackson 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 :Missouri River South Sioux City 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/fsd for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued by the end of March. $$ Kalin ####018011824#### FGUS73 KLMK 131632 ESFLMK INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-017-021- 027-029-031-045-049-053-057-061-067-073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103- 111-113-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211- 213-215-217-223-227-229-239-140000- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Louisville KY 1230 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana. The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is normal to slightly above normal. Minor to moderate flooding is expected due to rainfall and thunderstorms with isolated major flooding possible especially south of the Ohio River. This outlook is valid through May 2025. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Barren River Bowling Green 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 14 11 8 8 <5 <5 :Blue River Fredericksburg 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 27 25 12 13 <5 <5 :Cumberland River Burkesville 46.0 55.0 64.0 : 20 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 34 29 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 39 33 26 21 15 14 :Green River Munfordville 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 20 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mammoth Cave 32.0 57.0 62.0 : 46 34 <5 <5 <5 <5 Rochester 37.0 45.0 50.0 : 65 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 Woodbury 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 74 58 10 13 7 <5 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 21 22 8 16 6 11 Frankfort Lock 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 11 11 7 5 <5 <5 Ford Lock 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 21 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 High Bridge Lock 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 15 16 7 7 5 <5 Lockport Lock 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 24 22 8 7 <5 <5 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 44 36 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 32 17 12 <5 <5 <5 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 451.0 457.0 470.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cannelton Lock an 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 29 27 <5 <5 <5 <5 McAlpine Lower 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 19 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 McAlpine Upper 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 25 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 Tell City 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 55 51 <5 8 <5 <5 :Rolling Fork River Boston 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 30 35 13 10 7 7 :Rough River Dundee 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 42 29 20 14 <5 5 :Salt River Shepherdsville 32.0 35.0 40.0 : 7 8 <5 6 <5 <5 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 15 17 8 11 6 9 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Barren River Bowling Green 13.7 14.8 16.8 21.8 24.7 29.1 36.1 :Blue River Fredericksburg 7.1 7.9 9.0 11.0 20.8 24.5 25.6 :Cumberland River Burkesville 35.4 36.2 40.0 43.9 45.4 47.2 48.8 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 10.7 11.6 13.7 20.9 25.8 29.0 33.3 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 5.7 6.3 7.0 8.3 12.2 15.0 17.0 :Green River Munfordville 14.6 15.2 16.9 20.6 25.3 34.1 40.6 Mammoth Cave 24.4 25.2 27.3 31.0 37.0 44.5 46.7 Rochester 34.9 35.3 36.3 38.2 41.0 43.9 46.8 Woodbury 21.8 22.5 25.8 28.9 33.6 38.0 43.2 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 20.5 22.0 23.6 27.0 29.1 32.9 41.6 Frankfort Lock 12.4 13.0 14.9 20.6 24.2 31.3 37.7 Ford Lock 17.6 18.4 20.0 23.0 24.9 29.5 34.4 High Bridge Lock 17.0 17.8 19.3 22.8 25.8 32.0 39.4 Lockport Lock 16.5 17.8 20.4 27.0 32.4 40.8 46.1 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 16.1 17.7 20.0 23.5 29.4 34.3 38.5 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 12.1 13.1 18.6 22.6 25.9 28.2 30.1 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 429.0 431.3 437.2 442.6 447.2 449.7 451.4 Cannelton Lock an 24.5 28.2 34.3 39.9 42.4 44.0 44.5 McAlpine Lower 30.5 34.7 43.0 49.2 53.8 56.9 59.0 McAlpine Upper 12.6 13.5 16.9 19.4 23.0 25.9 27.9 Tell City 23.5 27.1 33.2 39.1 42.0 43.4 43.8 :Rolling Fork River Boston 15.7 19.3 24.7 30.8 36.1 43.3 45.8 :Rough River Dundee 18.0 19.7 21.5 23.7 27.6 28.8 29.7 :Salt River Shepherdsville 6.1 6.6 8.6 13.2 21.7 29.6 33.8 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 8.0 9.1 10.4 13.3 17.6 21.2 23.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Barren River Bowling Green 9.1 8.5 7.2 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 :Blue River Fredericksburg 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 :Cumberland River Burkesville 32.2 32.0 29.8 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.3 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Green River Munfordville 5.0 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 Mammoth Cave 13.1 11.5 10.8 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.6 Rochester 31.0 30.6 29.6 28.4 27.5 27.0 26.8 Woodbury 9.1 8.5 6.3 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.5 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 12.9 12.7 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.5 Frankfort Lock 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.8 Ford Lock 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.7 High Bridge Lock 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.9 Lockport Lock 9.8 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.3 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 11.0 10.8 7.2 6.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 422.1 421.9 421.4 421.1 420.8 420.5 420.4 Cannelton Lock an 14.3 13.5 12.3 11.6 11.0 10.8 10.7 McAlpine Lower 15.6 14.5 12.8 11.7 10.9 10.5 10.4 McAlpine Upper 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 Tell City 15.3 14.7 13.7 13.0 12.3 12.0 11.9 :Rolling Fork River Boston 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.7 :Rough River Dundee 10.6 9.9 8.4 7.4 6.9 6.9 6.9 :Salt River Shepherdsville 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Since mid December, precipitation has been well above normal and temperatures have been below normal across the region. As of mid March, soil moisture was above normal and streamflows were near normal or above normal over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Reservoir levels were near or above normal. Over the next week, the weather pattern will be active with a strong storm system expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts this Friday-Saturday. This looks to result in some minor river flooding with isolated moderate river flooding possible. Another storm system will bring additional rainfall of less than 1 inch Wednesday- Thursday of next week. The 8-14 day outlook which goes out through March 26 calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation. At this time of year, normal temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s and normal precipitation is around a quarter to one inch. The outlook for late March to early April calls for good chances of above normal temperatures and precipitation. Normal temperatures for late March are in the low 50s with normal precipitation between a quarter to one inch. The seasonal outlook for March through May indicates good chances for above normal temperatures and precipitation. Additional supportive data and explanations are available for precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at www.cpc.noaa.gov. Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch. Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl- wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html. Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water information. This is the final hydro outlook for Spring 2025. $$ AMS ####018013110#### FGUS73 KBIS 131634 ESFBIS NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053- 055-057-059-061-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-151600- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1134 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK... This Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota, covering the period of 15 March, 2025 through 13 June, 2025. This is the third and final edition of the Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook series covering flood probabilities for NWS forecast locations. The NWS will revert back to our regular schedule for updating these flood probabilities on March 27th. The following message has four sections. The first provides some text on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local hydrology. The second section gives the current and historical risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the river sites falling below the listed stages. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... After recent warm weather, all forecast locations in the Missouri and James River basins are now below historically normal risk levels of flooding. In short, with very little snow on the ground and only a few weeks left in the traditional snow accumulation season provides little opportunity to build much in the way of a threatening snowpack. Along with a lack of Snow-Water Equivalent, significant warming of the ground in many areas will allow future precipitation an opportunity to infiltrate into abnormally dry soils. All this suggests that the modest probabilities presented below are due to severe thunderstorms present in the historical data used in the models. Importantly, there is a fairly significant storm likely to hit the eastern part of North Dakota March 14-15, that event will not materially affect the below probabilities or narrative. ...Snowpack Conditions... Very little snow remains in the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota. What snow remains is largely confined to sheltered areas and drifts that tend to melt slowly and produce little in the way of runoff. ...The Missouri and Yellowstone rivers west of Williston... The initial rush of runoff from the snowpack on the plains of eastern Montana was insufficient to fully remove the ice on the Yellowstone and Missouri rivers west of Williston. While some ice remains, it is no longer of sufficient quantity to present much risk in the form of ice jams. This suggests the next opportunity for high water in this area will be when the mountain snowpack melts, and even this risk is below normal this year as the mountain snowpack is about 90 percent of normal. ...The Little Missouri River... The Little Missouri River has already melted off the vast majority of its snowpack and ice cover. This suggests any future risk of high water will largely be due to thunderstorms during the summer severe weather season. ...Current Drought Conditions... No significant changes have occurred with respect to drought designations over the past month. However, drought remains a concern across much of North Dakota with a large pocket of D3 (Extreme) drought centered on McKenzie and northwest Dunn counties. D1 and D2 levels of drought cover most of the areas west of the Missouri River and south of I-95 east of Highway 83. North and east of these areas, drought designations rapidly diminish and are near normal. ...Reservoirs and Natural Wetlands... Due to the early melt of a very uneven, but generally below normal snowpack this year, the net results vary wildly. Some areas have seen enough runoff to fill the smaller natural and man-made water features, but overall runoff has been lacking. This is a cause for concern on smaller water supply features. ...Soil Conditions... Soil moisture values remain well below normal across much of western and south central North Dakota. These dry soils continue to warm and many areas now have little to no frost in the ground. These warm and dry soils will minimize runoff from future precipitation, regardless if it comes as rain or snow. ...Weather Outlook... The near term 6-10 day weather outlooks favors near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation in the northeastern half of the state, and above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation in the southwestern half of the state. The 8-14 day outlooks favor above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation across all of North Dakota. Looking a little farther into the future, the latter part of March and very early April are favored to see above normal temperatures with an equal chance of above normal, near normal, or below normal precipitation. Looking even longer into the future at the 3-month outlook for March, April and May, the western one-third of North Dakota is slightly favored for below normal temperatures with the remainder of the state with an equal chances designation for above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures. During the same time period, the entire state has the equal chances designation for above normal, near normal, or below normal precipitation. In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Pipestem Pingree 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :James River Grace City 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 15 <5 9 <5 8 LaMoure 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 7 17 <5 8 <5 <5 :Missouri River Williston 22.0 24.0 26.0 : 6 42 <5 25 <5 8 :Cannonball River Regent 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar Creek Raleigh 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :Cannonball River Breien 10.0 20.0 23.0 : 14 58 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek Linton 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 14 45 <5 31 <5 13 :Little Muddy River Williston 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 21 73 7 42 <5 10 :Little Missouri River Marmarth 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Medora 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 5 24 <5 8 <5 6 Watford City 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 14 <5 5 <5 <5 :Knife River Manning 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 11 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Spring Creek Zap 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 8 31 6 17 5 8 :Knife River Hazen 21.0 24.0 25.0 : 6 43 <5 31 <5 26 :Heart River Mandan 27.0 33.0 38.0 : <5 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Apple Creek Menoken 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 16 58 7 55 <5 34 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Pipestem Pingree 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.6 10.1 10.4 :James River Grace City 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 6.0 8.0 9.1 LaMoure 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.8 8.8 10.2 15.2 :Missouri River Williston 16.3 17.1 17.4 17.8 19.0 20.7 22.2 :Cannonball River Regent 5.2 5.3 6.1 7.0 8.3 9.4 9.5 :Cedar Creek Raleigh 0.5 1.2 2.6 3.9 4.9 5.9 6.2 :Cannonball River Breien 2.3 3.0 4.3 6.3 8.4 10.6 10.8 :Beaver Creek Linton 4.5 4.5 6.4 8.5 10.3 12.3 13.5 :Little Muddy River Williston 5.6 5.6 6.2 8.5 9.6 10.7 12.2 :Little Missouri River Marmarth 1.4 1.4 1.8 4.1 8.6 11.6 14.9 Medora 3.0 3.0 3.2 4.7 9.2 12.2 15.7 Watford City 8.5 8.5 8.9 10.2 12.0 15.0 18.4 :Knife River Manning 6.7 6.7 7.3 8.8 10.0 15.1 15.2 :Spring Creek Zap 4.8 4.8 5.0 6.5 8.9 11.5 19.3 :Knife River Hazen 1.1 1.3 2.7 5.5 10.0 18.5 23.1 :Heart River Mandan 9.8 10.2 11.2 13.1 17.3 21.4 23.4 :Apple Creek Menoken 4.6 4.7 5.3 6.9 11.2 16.0 16.1 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Pipestem Pingree 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 :James River Grace City 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 LaMoure 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 :Missouri River :Cannonball River Regent 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Cedar Creek Raleigh 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Cannonball River Breien 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 :Beaver Creek Linton 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 :Little Muddy River Williston 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 :Little Missouri River Marmarth 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 Medora 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Watford City 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 :Knife River Manning 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 :Spring Creek Zap 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Knife River Hazen 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 :Heart River Mandan 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.9 :Apple Creek Menoken 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued on March 27th, 2025. $$ Schlag