####018005749####
FGUS73 KMQT 051423

ESFMQT

MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-DDHHMM-



Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Marquette MI

956 AM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025



In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal

probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages

are listed for the valid time period.



CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category

based on current conditions.



HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category

based on historical or normal conditions.



When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of

exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is

less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower

than normal.





...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...

                    Valid Period:  05/26/2025 - 08/24/2025



                                       :    Current and Historical

                                       :     Chances of Exceeding

                                       :       Flood Categories

                                       :      as a Percentage (%)

                      Categorical      :

                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major

Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS

--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

:Michigamme River

Witch Lake           9.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Paint River

Crystal Falls (Pa    7.0    8.0    9.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Black River

Bessemer            10.0   12.0   14.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Ontonagon River

Rockland            25.0   26.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Sturgeon River

Sidnaw              12.0   15.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Alston               8.0   11.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Chocolay River

Harvey              10.0   11.5   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:East Branch Escanaba River

Gwinn                7.0    9.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Middle Branch Escanaba River

Humboldt             6.5    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5



Legend

CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)

HS = Historical Simulation

FT = Feet



In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the

probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid

time period.



...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...



                               Chance of Exceeding Stages

                                  at Specific Locations

                          Valid Period: 05/26/2025 - 08/24/2025

Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

:Michigamme River

Witch Lake            4.1    4.1    4.1    4.2    4.7    5.7    6.0

:Paint River

Crystal Falls (Pa     3.0    3.2    3.4    4.1    4.6    5.0    5.8

:Black River

Bessemer              2.5    2.6    2.8    3.7    4.7    7.0   10.3

:Ontonagon River

Rockland              6.2    6.4    7.3    8.4   10.8   13.2   14.8

:Sturgeon River

Sidnaw                4.6    4.7    5.2    5.8    6.3    7.0    7.2

Alston                4.6    4.6    5.1    5.6    6.5    7.2    7.6

:Chocolay River

Harvey                2.9    3.0    3.2    3.5    4.1    5.4    6.0

:East Branch Escanaba River

Gwinn                 1.3    1.5    2.0    2.5    3.1    4.3    5.0

:Middle Branch Escanaba River

Humboldt              2.3    2.5    2.8    3.2    4.3    4.7    5.3



In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the

probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the

valid time period.



...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...



                            Chance of Falling Below Stages

                                 at Specific Locations

                          Valid Period: 05/26/2025 - 08/24/2025

Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

:Michigamme River

Witch Lake            0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1

:Paint River

Crystal Falls (Pa     0.5    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.3    0.3    0.3

:Black River

Bessemer              0.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

:Ontonagon River

Rockland              0.8    0.7    0.7    0.6    0.6    0.5    0.5

:Sturgeon River

Sidnaw                0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1

Alston                0.3    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.1

:Chocolay River

Harvey                0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1

:East Branch Escanaba River

Gwinn                 0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.0    0.0

:Middle Branch Escanaba River

Humboldt              0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0



These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that

are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years

of climatological data, including current conditions of the

river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range

outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of

probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning

decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part

of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction

Service.



Visit our web site weather.gov/mqt for more weather and water

information.



The next outlook will be issued near the end of June.



$$



Jablonski