####018008286#### FGUS73 KUNR 132032 ESFUNR SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-123-137- WYC005-011-045-250000 Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Rapid City SD 232 PM MDT Thu Mar 13 2025 ...Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlook... ...Below-Average Flood Potential This Spring... This spring flood and water resource outlook is for the Rapid City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), which covers northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. The main river basins include the Little Missouri, eastern Powder, Belle Fourche, Grand, Moreau, Cheyenne, Bad, White, and Keya Paha. .Flood Outlook Summary... The flood potential this spring is below average across all of northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. .Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content... Snow depth is zero or near zero across most of the area. The exceptions are across the northern Black Hills, mainly the higher elevations, where there still is anywhere from a few inches to near 20 inches of snow depth. The highest elevations of the Bear Lodge Mountains also have up to 6 inches of snow depth. The liquid water content in these areas range mostly from 1 to 6 inches. .Soil Conditions and Frost Depths... Soil moisture is below average across all of the area and frost depths are generally zero, with the exception being some lingering frost over the Black Hills. .Lake and River Conditions... Rivers and Creeks across the area are generally ice free after the warm conditions of the last few weeks. Many lakes on the plains are mostly ice free, though Shadehill Reservoir still has some thin ice. Lakes across the Black Hills are still mostly ice covered, but quickly thinning. .Weather Outlooks... The precipitation outlook for spring through summer favors drier than average conditions, especially during the late spring and summer. The temperature outlook for spring through summer favors near-to-above average temperatures. These outlooks are consistent with the decay of La Niña followed by near-average eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures. In summary, drought conditions are expected to persist. .Probablistic Outlook... In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 3/15/2025 - 9/30/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Missouri River Camp Crook 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 17 41 <5 20 <5 6 :Moreau River Faith 16.0 18.0 21.0 : <5 21 <5 12 <5 <5 :Belle Fourche River WY-SD State Line 15.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Belle Fourche River Sturgis 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 20 26 16 18 7 9 :Belle Fourche River Elm Springs 19.0 22.0 24.0 : 9 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cheyenne River Wasta 13.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 Plainview 17.0 19.0 20.0 : 27 45 16 27 12 17 :Bad River Midland 21.0 24.0 25.0 : 19 36 <5 5 <5 <5 :White River Kadoka 15.0 16.0 19.0 : 22 53 18 45 6 19 White River 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 25 47 20 39 16 25 Oacoma 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 56 75 8 24 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 3/15/2025 - 9/30/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Missouri River Camp Crook 2.5 2.5 2.7 4.7 8.2 14.2 15.2 :Moreau River Faith 3.0 4.7 8.5 10.6 13.1 14.8 15.7 :Belle Fourche River WY-SD State Line 4.4 4.4 4.7 6.8 9.7 12.9 14.3 :South Belle Fourche River Sturgis 4.0 4.3 5.7 7.7 12.7 17.2 19.7 :Belle Fourche River Elm Springs 5.2 5.4 7.3 9.0 14.1 18.5 20.9 :Cheyenne River Wasta 0.5 0.7 1.5 3.8 5.4 6.3 7.6 Plainview 9.2 9.6 11.0 13.5 17.6 20.2 21.0 :Bad River Midland 4.4 4.8 6.7 12.5 19.0 22.6 22.9 :White River Kadoka 7.4 7.5 9.8 13.9 14.9 17.6 25.2 White River 6.9 7.1 9.4 12.5 14.0 17.3 24.0 Oacoma 10.2 10.9 13.6 15.3 17.8 19.2 22.7 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 3/15/2025 - 9/30/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Missouri River Camp Crook 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 :Moreau River Faith 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 :Belle Fourche River WY-SD State Line 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 :South Belle Fourche River Sturgis 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 :Belle Fourche River Elm Springs 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 :Cheyenne River Wasta 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Plainview 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 :Bad River Midland 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 :White River Kadoka 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 White River 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 Oacoma 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/unr for more weather and water information. .Outlook Schedule... This is the last planned spring flood outlook for the season. $$ 26 ####018009760#### FGUS73 KSGF 132033 ESFSGF MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC011-021-161200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Springfield MO 3:00 PM CST Thu Mar 13 2025 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the larger river systems in the National Weather Service Springfield, Missouri Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). This includes the Spring, Osage, Sac, Gasconade, James, Current, and Elk River Basins. Near normal to below normal flood potential is expected across the Springfield HSA. Springtime flooding is driven by typical thunderstorm activity. Details on the chances for minor, moderate, and major flooding for area river forecast points are given in the outlook tables below. Summary of Recent Conditions: Precipitation from December - February was below normal across most of the HSA. Over the past two weeks, since the last Spring Flood Outlook, above normal precipitation occurred across western portions of the HSA with normal to below normal precipitation elsewhere. Soil moisture is generally below normal except across southeastern and western portions of the HSA. During the month of February below normal to much below normal streamflow was observed across portions of the Niangua, Pomme De Terre, Sac, Spring, and Elk watersheds. Elsewhere, normal streamflow conditions occurred across the HSA. Currently, nearly 2/3 of the HSA is classified as Abnormally Dry (D0) or Moderate Drought (D1). These dry conditions generally extend across the western HSA. Outlook: Seasonal outlooks through the end of May show equal chances for above, below, or near normal temperatures and slightly elevated chances for above normal precipitation across eastern portions of the HSA. The US Monthly Drought Outlook shows drought conditions persisting through March. Longer term outlooks indicate improved drought conditions over the next few months. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Osage River Fulton 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 65 63 50 50 <5 <5 Horton 41.0 45.0 50.0 : 82 88 22 24 <5 <5 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 38.0 42.0 43.0 : 26 29 9 10 6 8 Nevada 20.0 26.0 31.0 : 68 76 38 41 13 14 :Osage River Taberville 23.0 34.0 46.0 : 46 58 13 15 <5 <5 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 16.0 19.0 28.0 : 51 54 44 50 11 13 :Gasconade River Hazelgreen 21.0 26.0 30.0 : 20 27 13 18 8 9 :Roubidoux Creek Waynesville 7.0 14.0 20.0 : 27 49 7 9 <5 <5 :Big Piney River Fort Leonard Wood 8.0 15.0 23.0 : 77 81 30 39 8 8 :Gasconade River Jerome 15.0 25.0 30.0 : 37 51 9 21 7 8 :Spring River Carthage 10.0 14.0 20.0 : 28 36 9 9 <5 <5 Waco 19.0 30.0 33.0 : 32 38 <5 <5 <5 <5 Baxter Springs 14.0 22.0 30.0 : 32 34 9 13 <5 <5 :Shoal Creek Joplin 11.5 16.0 18.0 : 15 18 6 6 <5 <5 :Elk River Tiff City 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 13 33 5 13 <5 <5 :Current River Powder Mill 8.0 25.0 40.0 : 25 65 <5 10 <5 <5 :Jacks Fork Alley Spring 9.0 12.0 16.0 : 13 32 5 12 <5 7 Eminence 12.0 15.0 20.0 : <5 17 <5 9 <5 <5 :James River Galena 15.0 25.0 31.0 : 16 44 <5 19 <5 14 Boaz 10.0 18.0 24.0 : 14 66 <5 20 <5 11 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Osage River Fulton 6.9 12.2 18.0 25.1 27.3 27.9 29.3 Horton 35.3 40.9 41.6 43.1 44.5 47.4 48.5 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 13.3 16.5 24.2 31.1 38.5 41.8 43.3 Nevada 8.4 12.0 16.0 24.4 29.3 32.6 36.6 :Osage River Taberville 12.7 16.2 18.2 21.6 25.8 35.2 38.4 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 7.7 8.2 11.2 16.8 25.9 28.4 30.0 :Gasconade River Hazelgreen 2.9 3.7 5.9 11.2 18.6 26.2 35.0 :Roubidoux Creek Waynesville 2.1 2.6 3.3 4.4 7.3 10.8 15.7 :Big Piney River Fort Leonard Wood 3.2 4.2 8.2 10.6 15.5 20.2 27.4 :Gasconade River Jerome 3.8 4.9 7.7 12.4 18.4 24.2 32.4 :Spring River Carthage 3.5 3.9 5.0 7.0 10.5 13.9 16.5 Waco 5.5 7.2 9.8 13.9 21.2 25.2 26.9 Baxter Springs 5.9 6.4 7.7 10.5 15.4 21.9 24.9 :Shoal Creek Joplin 2.1 2.8 4.3 5.7 7.5 13.6 16.7 :Elk River Tiff City 4.5 4.9 5.8 7.8 11.4 16.0 20.2 :Current River Powder Mill 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 8.1 15.0 19.3 :Jacks Fork Alley Spring 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 6.1 9.7 12.1 Eminence 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 5.7 9.5 11.8 :James River Galena 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 9.2 18.4 23.0 Boaz 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 5.7 11.7 14.8 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Osage River Fulton 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Horton 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 7.5 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 Nevada 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 :Osage River Taberville 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 :Gasconade River Hazelgreen 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 :Roubidoux Creek Waynesville 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 :Big Piney River Fort Leonard Wood 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 :Gasconade River Jerome 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 :Current River Powder Mill 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 :Jacks Fork Alley Spring 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Eminence 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 :James River Galena 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Boaz 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water information. This will be the last Spring Flood Outlook issued for this year. An updated Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook will be issued during the last week of March. $$ Grout