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FGUS74 KBRO 182114

ESFBRO

TXC047-192114-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Brownsville Tx

415 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025



...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range

probabilistic outlook for the Los Olmos Creek basin in deep

South Texas...



The Brownsville Texas National Weather Service Office

has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

(AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek basin in deep South Texas.

AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range

probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the 

internet.



In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate

the chance the creek could rise above the listed stage levels

in the next 90 days. Example: The Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias

has a flood stage of 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the 

Falfurrias forecast point will rise above 2.2 Feetduring the 

next 90 days.





	Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations

		   Valid [06/18/2025 - 09/16/2025]	





 Location    FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

 --------    -----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

 Los Olmos Creek

  Falfurrias  11.0    1.8  1.8  1.8  1.9  2.2  2.4  2.7  3.9  5.4



This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are

calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical

climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take

into account current conditions of the creek and soil moisture.

By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the

level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions

can be determined.



Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the

internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro



Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third

Thursday of every month.





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