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FGUS72 KMFL 121949

ESFMFL

FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-130800-



Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Miami FL

349 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025



...Heavy Rainfall Expected Across South Florida Early To Middle OF

Next Week...



Broad low/mid level cyclonic flow around the disturbance, combined 

with the very high moisture values, will result in periods of 

rainfall at most times of the day, not just during peak diurnal 

cycles.



The wind flow on Monday will be light due to a northerly in the 

upper levels and a light southerly flow at the surface. The 500 mb 

temp will also be around -4 to -5C which is warm for this time of 

year. This means that there could be nearly stationary showers and 

thunderstorms on Monday over South Florida which will exceed 1 inch 

over most of the area, with high-end amounts in excess of 3 inches, 

in some areas perhaps quite a bit higher. WPC's Excessive Rainfall 

Outlook is currently showing a slight risk of flooding over South 

Florida for Monday. 



Tuesday and Wednesday's rainfall amounts could be similar, if not 

even higher in some areas, as the wind flow shifts to S/SE direction 

allowing for deep tropical moisture to work into the region keeping 

the very high moisture values in place. WPC's Excessive Rainfall 

Outlook has put South Florida in a Slight Risk Of Flooding for 

Tuesday and Marginal Risk of Flooding for Wednesday.



At this time, it looks like rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with 

locally higher amounts up to 6 inches are possible through 

Wednesday. There could even be higher amounts with the storms train 

or sit over the same area. If these trends continue in later 

forecast through the weekend, but a Flood Watch may be needed for 

South Florida for early next week.



$$



Baxter