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Water Supply Outlook May 7, 2025
ABRFC uses the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.
Snowfall across the Upper Arkansas River Basin was below normal during April. The
Sangre De Cristo Mountains in Southern Colorado and the Canadian River Basin in New
Mexico also saw below normal snowfall in April. At the end of April, snowpack
conditions were below normal at most points along the upper reaches of the Arkansas
River, but significantly below normal across Southern Colorado. The snowpack is also
extremely low in the Canadian Basin in New Mexico, where much of the snowpack has
melted.
Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 79 percent-of-average for the
Arkansas River at Salida and 71 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff
from Grape Creek, the Cucharas River and the Huerfano River is forecast to be 30,
52, and 47 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide
72 percent-of-average runoff. Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to
be 49 percent-of-average.
In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 36 and 30 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 20 and 19 percent-of-average, respectively.
Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-April) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado is below median, overall. Reports range from 64 percent-of-median at
South Colony to 111 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above Salida, as
measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is below normal at 59 percent-of-median. Snowpack
in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is almost gone. In the Purgatoire River
basin, the snowpack is almost all melted, as well.
New Mexico's water-year-to-date precipitation is below normal. Reports range from
75 percent-of-median at Red River Pass #2 to 99 percent-of-median at Shuree.
Unfortunately, the snowpack in the Canadian River basin is mostly melted and is
too low to measure.
Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 110 percent-of-median above
Pueblo Reservoir and 92 percent-of-median below the reservoir. The upper reservoirs
are at 101 percent of last year's total. The lower reservoirs are at 110 percent of
last year's total.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation
outlooks for the nation. The outlook for May through July calls for increased chances
of above normal temperatures in Colorado and New Mexico. The CPC outlook also calls
for increased chances for below normal precipitation across New Mexico and especially
in Colorado.
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* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
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National Weather Service
Arkansas Red River Forecast Center
2025 Water Supply Forecast Issued as of June 5, 2025
Forecast Runoff
Most Reasonable Reasonable Average
Probable Maximum Minimum 1991-2020 Forecast Forecast % % %
Point Period 1000 30YR 1000 30YR 1000 30YR 1000
(*) AF AVG. AF AVG. AF AVG. AF
*(1)Apr-Sep
*(2)Mar-Jun
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN, COLORADO
ARKANSAS RIVER
Granite, Co 001 155 79 180 92 99 51 195
Salida, Co 001 230 79 270 93 150 52 290
Canon City, Co 001 270 72 335 89 190 51 375
Pueblo Abv, Co 001 290 68 365 86 210 49 425
GRAPE CREEK
Westcliffe Nr, Co 001 7 47 12 81 5.1 34 14.8
CUCHARAS RIVER
Boyd Ranch, La Veta 001 7 61 9.4 82 5 44 11.4
PURGATOIRE RIVER
Trinidad, Co 001 24 57 39 93 12.9 31 42
HUERFANO RIVER
Redwing Nr, Co 001 8.3 61 10.3 76 5.2 38 13.6
CHALK CREEK
Nathrop Nr, Co 001 18.5 74 25 100 11.5 46 25
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN, COLORADO
**ARKANSAS RIVER
Las Animas, Co 001 115 79 155 107 90 62 147
**PURGATOIRE RIVER
Las Animas, Co 001 16 67 27 113 7.5 31 24
*Indicates the 30-year normal is based upon the 30-year median rather than the 30-year mean.
**Indicates the historical and forecast information is regulated or observed flow at the gage.
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* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* http://www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
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