####018000679#### PENA01 KWNH 151200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12150525@@0NMCGPHMPD i@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@$U|||z{{z{{|}}~~@@U@@U@@0273 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/15/2025 1945Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @####018002800#### AWUS01 KWNH 151947 FFGMPD NCZ000-160100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0274 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 346 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 151945Z - 160100Z SUMMARY...Lingering deep moisture and slow, potentially multiple cell/repeating tracks crossing recently saturated grounds pose scattered incident or two of flash flooding this evening. DISCUSSION...19z Surface and RAP analysis denotes a pool of lingering enhanced deep layer moisture across eastern NC that has had near full isolation throughout the day resulting in quite unstable environment. Sfc Tds in the low 70s with low to upper 80s extending from the VA/NC line south to a few 90s near Lumberton, NC; and modest 7 to 7.5C/km lapse rates have resulted in a pool of MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across the area of concern. Surface analysis shows a broad surface trof from upstate NC toward a weak low near DAN/GSO with the Fall-line trough extending southward through central SC; stronger winds from SC at 10-15kts slow in proximity to the temperature gradient increasing flux convergence. GOES-E Visible loop shows enhanced convergence lines with the sea-breeze, but overall general congestus across central NC is starting to bubble to a few TCu/CBs near RAH. Deep layer 850-700mb southwesterly flow will veer a bit more with slightly confluent streamlines across the state in proximity to the surface trof and low. Isolated cells will build to be scattered through the evening, but given updraft strength and flux capability of TPW AoA 1.5", should support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates. Cell motions of 10-15kts will help with duration and may support some spots of enhanced rainfall. As cells become more clustered toward the east into the late evening (potentially locked to terrain due to bay/sea-breeze boundaries), there are increased chances of localized 2-3" totals. Normally, soils would support these rates, but given recent 400-600% of normal rainfall across portions of E NC per AHPS, and soil saturation ratios above the 98th percentile in the range of 65-80% (greater along and east of I-95), FFG values may have rebounded a bit too quickly but 3hr FFG value of 2.5-3" are still in range of some exceedance, the risk of limited infiltration and rapid inundation flooding is considered possible. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36547686 36407611 35967578 35637586 35177663 34867736 34897829 35077906 35397933 35867943 36387884 36517783 ####018000825#### PENA01 KWNH 151200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12150525@@0NMCGPHMPD i@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@+L~~}}{|{{|z{|}~~~@@L@@L@@$U|||z{{z{{|}}~~@@U@@U@@0273 @@b0274 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/15/2025 1947Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @