####018001686#### AWUS01 KWNH 161137 FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161630- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0275 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 737 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas through Central Kentucky Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 161134Z - 161630Z Summary...Repeating heavy thunderstorms continue developing from northeast Arkansas through central Kentucky this morning. While movement of cells remains progressive, cell mergers and repeating activity makes flash flooding possible. Discussion...Numerous supercells have developed ahead of a stationary front over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and western Kentucky. Gulf-sourced moisture (PW of 1.8") is pooling along the front with higher instability (MUCAPE >2000 J/kg) and powerful deep layer WSWly flow (60kt) allowing for heavy repeating cells. Rainfall up around 1.5" in the past hour as been estimated from the heaviest cells which have large hail. The 09Z RRFS is decent with its current depiction with a diurnal increase in coverage through the rest of the morning. Flow parallel to the front will allow repeating storms. Flash flood guidance is 1.5 to 2" per hour, so flash flooding should be limited to where repeating heavy activity occurs. Jackson ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38448437 37168364 36478611 35728928 35169145 35639212 36189161 36758983 37338844 38108616 ####018000757#### PENA01 KWNH 161200 @UHPISF000CNé MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12160525@@0NMCGPHMPD t0@!' `' ` @ ê¾& êBñ7)p&¬PNAM02@@K»Þ€‚…„„…………„„„„ƒ„„„„„…„…„„„…„…„„„„†~†}†|„z„{€{þ|ý}ý|û}û|ú|ú|ú|ú|ü}ü}û|û}û}û|û}û}û}û}û}ü}ú|ú|û|ú|û}ü}ü~ü~ùûýþ@@»Þ€@@»Þ€@@>P€0275 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&þ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 05/16/2025 1137Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™þ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @