####018002018#### AWUS01 KWNH 161524 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-162015- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0277 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1123 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...South-Central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 161519Z - 162015Z Summary...Risk of repeating heavy thunderstorms across the south-central Appalachians this afternoon. Fast motion to these storms will continue, so flash flooding is possible where cell mergers and repeating of the heaviest activity occurs. Discussion...Numerous supercells embedded in a quasi-linear system east of a stationary front will continue to develop and shift east over the south-central Appalachians this afternoon. Gulf-sourced moisture (PW of 1.7 to 1.9") is pooling ahead of the front with higher instability MLCAPE 1500 to 2500 J/kg) and powerful deep layer WSWly flow (50 to 60kt) allowing for heavy repeating cells. Peak hourly rainfall estimates of 1.0 to 1.5" per hour continue in the heaviest cells which also have hail present. The RRFS continues to have a decent handle on this regional activity especially compared to recent HRRRs which are too late with activity. The 13Z RRFS indicates potential for 3" over the next few hours which is reasonable given the repeating threat from flow parallel to the front. Flash flood guidance decreases east from KY with terrain with three-hour values of 1.5 to 2" decreasing to as low as 1". Given the axis of higher instability continuing through the crest of the Appalachians, there is a notable threat for flash flooding in spite of the fast cell motion. Jackson ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38588107 38537968 37937903 37107891 36287983 36208569 37638499 38308328 ####018001071#### PENA01 KWNH 161200 @UHPISF000CNé MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12160525@@0NMCGPHMPD t0@!' `' ` @ ê¾& êBñ7)p&¬PNAM02@@A98‚ƒ„„„„…„……………„„††…„………„}„}„|ƒ|ƒ{{‚{|{ýz÷yý~ü~ü~û}ú}û}ú}ù}ú}ù}ú~ù}ú}ù}ú~û~ú~üû~ýýúý€‚ƒƒ‚@@98€@@98€@@  ·‚„………†††…‡†…„~‚|‚y€tÿzü}üüúõúêùûÿ@@ ·€@@ ·€@@K»Þ€‚…„„…………„„„„ƒ„„„„„…„…„„„…„…„„„„†~†}†|„z„{€{þ|ý}ý|û}û|ú|ú|ú|ú|ü}ü}û|û}û}û|û}û}û}û}û}ü}ú|ú|û|ú|û}ü}ü~ü~ùûýþ@@»Þ€@@»Þ€@@>P€0275 @@¬É€0276 @@xl€0277 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&þ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 05/16/2025 1523Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™þ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @