####018000721#### FNUS38 KWNS 152201 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025 VALID TIME 171200Z - 231200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D3 34340804 34870789 35400741 35910504 36920429 37820452 38410443 38580319 38350203 38000107 37420028 35990060 35190125 33580328 33110424 32490475 32000494 31300503 30950522 30800540 31720657 31760814 31260814 31260985 32490930 33030868 33530787 34340804 D4 35080453 35350306 34300251 33560326 32410466 31500556 31180592 31710646 31750814 31280817 31290893 31950856 34080656 35080453 && ####018002319#### FNUS28 KWNS 152201 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Model guidance consensus continues to support a deepening upper-level trough over the Intermountain West through Day 5/Saturday, before ejecting into the Plains and eastern U.S. early next week. Strong mid-level southwesterly flow south of this trough juxtaposed with a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest will likely support Critical fire weather conditions for much of New Mexico northeastward into the Southern High Plains on Day 3/Thursday, before threat becomes more confined by Day 4/Friday as mid-level flow weakens. Elevated fire weather conditions could linger into the weekend for portions of far West Texas as a modest downslope regime remains in place. ...Day 3/Thursday... High ensemble guidance probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions suggest a higher confidence of a considerable synoptic fire weather event across New Mexico and adjacent Southern High Plains on Thursday. Sustained southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity falling into the single digits in many lowland locations are expected, with some high-end critical fire weather conditions possible in a few areas. The meteorological environment will overlap with persistent dry fuels across much of the Southwest, although some green-up is noted across portions of the southern Plains, acting to mitigate significant fire spread potential. ...Day 4/Friday... Mid-level jet translates across the Southwest eastward while a cold front intrudes southward into the Four Corners area, bringing some precipitation across the area Friday. However, Critical fire weather conditions are still likely across southern and eastern New Mexico ahead of the front. ...Day 5/Saturday through Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather concerns wane overall across the Southwest as mid-level flow diminishes. There could be some downslope wind concerns across the central High Plains in the lee of the Central Rockies early next week but confidence remains low in scope and area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$