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FNUS21 KWNS 161628

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025



Valid 161700Z - 171200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO

INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward

expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal

boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep

relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled

with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions

across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise,

forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern

High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather

concerns in place.



..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/



...Synopsis...

An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern

California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds

across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee

troughing will increase through the day.



...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains...

The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but

moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the

lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad

portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The

strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH

of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical

fire weather threat.



...Central High Plains...

With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and

eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop

during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire

weather is expected this afternoon.



...Mid-Missouri Valley...

Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late

morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during

the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the

amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region.

Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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