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FNUS21 KWNS 171649

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025



Valid 171700Z - 181200Z



...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO

WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE

SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...



Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest

corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from

southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the

Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical

highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and

northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest

and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of

30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas

Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce

widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of

New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will

allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of

rapid fire spread in dry fuels.



..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/



...Synopsis...

A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the

afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas

border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present

across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High

Plains.



...New Mexico...

The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from

southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be

quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph

and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of

5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile

(with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected

with any ignitions.



...Southern High Plains...

While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the

still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire

weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and

South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see

similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per

TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather

elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The

highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the

northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.



...Central High Plains...

With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet

impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and

southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire

weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front

Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther

south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat

will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could

see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting

to the north and RH quickly rising.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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